Bucks 2020 offseason thread

[patrickgpe]

Going to be an interesting offseason, as they Giannis supermax decision will come down and the bucks will be very active to appease Giannis.

 

Starting this thread today, first rumor of the offseason is that the bucks will very much be in the mix for Bogdan Bogdanovic

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2913624-bucks-rumors-kings-bogdan-bogdanovic-expected-to-interest-mil-in-free-agency

 

He would be the 3 pt shooter the bucks need and has some nice size. Also Kings are expected to heavily pursue.

[tmwiese55]

And he has some more quick twitch create your own shot ability than they currently have too. Yea, of course not on the super quick PG type level, bt still a clear improvement. It'll be interesting how they could work it out due to being capped out and he's a RFA. Get him and another shooter, preferably one with some off dribble abilities and you've stepped up a bit.

 

I've been pretty confident in Giannis resigning. Maybe getting a little less optimistic now so I'm going to guess he does a LBJ type 2+1 thing to meet in the middle a bit. He can still play the see I was loyal card but also not be locked in for 5 years just in case.

[GAME05]

Bleacher Report saying the Bucks are committed to keeping Giannis next year even if he doesn't sign an extension. The idea is the Bucks will be doing what they can to improve the team and to spend money to demonstrate to Giannis that they're committed to winning.

 

I think that would be a mistake. If Giannis doesn't think the Bucks are committed to winning now, I don't see how one more season suddenly changes his mind. Mostly though, losing Giannis for nothing would kickstart a rebuilding process, and considering big-name FAs don't tend to want to come to Milwaukee, the rebuilding could well take a very long time--not to mention the team is a fringe playoff team without Giannis, and so we'd be stuck in that middle-ground of being too good for top draft picks but not good enough to do anything in the playoffs.

 

But considering how desperate every team in the League would be to trade for the best player in the NBA, that should net us a boatload of young up-and-coming players and draft picks. It's more what OKC finally did with George Paul and Westbrook after learning their lesson about letting Durant and Harden walk for nothing. OKC is now a team with a ton of draft capital built up and it won't be long before they're a great team again. One can only guess what a bidding war between Miami and the Knicks and a couple other teams would get us.

 

Moving forward I wouldn't mind seeing the Bucks move to be a stronger perimeter defending team. What they currently do works well in the regular season but the team can get killed in the playoffs when one or two players on the other side get hot from 3 and we can't move to stop that shot. If that means giving up more inside scoring, so be it.

 

The Bucks keep saying "Surround Giannis with shooters" but I think that's not quite right. It should be more "Surround Giannis with scorers," and those two are fairly different things.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think that's a mistake. I would rather have them try one more time and lose in the ECF again than trade him. They're not going to get comparable value in any trade. He is a once in a lifetime player. I'd keep him for his swan song 100/100 times.

 

I accept the risk that he walks for zip, but that's me. I've got no interest in rebuilding to win 44 games.

[tmwiese55]

Agree with snapper. Take your last swing for the fences. I'd definitely take his not signing now as a bad sign and that he's likely to move on. But that also doesn't mean for sure the moves you can make won't change his mind. Say, at the time of his extension decision he's not convinced but then we pull off getting a good lead G type lke say a McCollum and also a shooter like Bogdonovic. Well, that changes things. Or say nothing big happens in offseason but you somehow pull off Beal at the deadline, that changes things. Top of my head though I don't know the timing on all this stuff this offseason since it's all messed up. Normally, all the offseason moves would have been done and then Giannis' deadline would be close to the start of the season.

[CheezWizHed]

I'll third that. You won't get back enough value in a trade to justify it. In reality, if he isn't convinced now, winning the title might be the only thing that could convince him. Either way, with him on the team is probably our best chance at winning a title in the next 10 years.

[wallus]

You don't want to be in the 8th seed realm in the NBA which the Bucks "enjoyed" for many years. If Giannis doesn't sign, you do not trade him. You try to win the whole thing and then tank if he leaves.

[GAME05]

I don't mean to suggest that trading Giannis would net equal value. Certainly quantity doesn't equal quality in the NBA. More that when you're headed for a non-Giannis rebuild, getting something back would cut down those rebuild years by a third. We've all seen just how long a rebuild can take.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

getting something back would cut down those rebuild years by a third. We've all seen just how long a rebuild can take.

 

In a different sport, yes, in the NBA, maybe, but very, very likely not.

 

What it will most likely do is get you something good enough to go in purgatory and be a 7 seed or picking 12th overall. I know Giannis wasn't a top pick, but that isn't how it usually goes down.

 

The NBA is structured in such a way that the worst thing to be is mediocre with established players. You either want to be a top 5 team or a bottom 5 team.

 

The Cavs won a title by blowing it up when LeBron left and getting Kyrie for when he came back, and getting Love for Wiggins.

 

I think what trading Giannis would achieve is this: Mediocrity and throwing crap at the wall and stretching that out for a decade of cap hell when the best thing to do would be to just absolutely suck and try to start over.

[tmwiese55]

You also might get lucky the team he chooses to go to doesn't have cap space so you do get something back to help facilitate. Seems unlikely since many teams are planning specifically for that offseason as Giannis not the only possible big player in the market, but it could happen. The whole financial landscape of the league is largely up in the air right now and a lot can change. There could be some very dicey union negotiations on the horizon. Generally speaking the owners/players work together will in the NBA at least, but there is a lot to be sorted.

[reillymcshane]

So, if you want to make a major trade to upgrade the Bucks for next year, what do you do?

 

Let's assume the club keeps Giannis (either on signing the SuperMax, or simply not trading him).

 

Who do you trade for? Who do you sign?

 

Some important notes:

 

1. We have very little, if any, cap space. So signing free agents outright isn't going to work.

 

2. We do have the Mid-Level Exemption to work with - which is around $9.5-10M. We can sign any combination of players with this exception - and still go over the cap.

 

3. Any trade we make means we have to take back 80% of the contract(s) we are getting. Thus, Chris Paul, who makes $44M, requires you to send Oklahoma $33M in salaries.

 

Note: Draft picks don't count as salary until the player is actually picked. And you can't trade that guy for 30 days, so if you trade a pick, it won't be official until 30 days after the draft.

 

4. The club can sign anyone for minimum even if over the cap.

 

Key names available (either as free agents or rumored to be available through trade). I've only listed guys who would be big additions.

 

Victor Oladipo, Pacers (trade - one year left on contract)

Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kings (restricted FA - need to work a sign and trade)

Buddy Hield, Kings (trade)

Chris Paul, Thunder (trade, owed nearly $90M over the next two years)

Joe Harris, Nets (FA - need to work a sign and trade)

Danilo Gallinari, OKA (FA - need to work a sign and trade)

Jrue Holiday, NO (trade - 2 years left on contract)

Derrick Rose, DET (trade, 1 year left on contract)

Mike Conley, UTAH (trade, 1 year left on contract)

Blake Griffen, DET (trade)

Goran Dragic, MIA (FA - probably need to trade as he will likely require more than the MLE)

 

Most of these are players already under contract, however, the free agents will likely all get more than the mid-level exception, so a sign-and-trade is likely needed.

 

Please pipe in with other names that you would target.

 

Primary Bucks assets (not including Giannis)

 

2020 1st round pick from Indiana (24th overall)

Eric Bledsoe

Khris Middleton

Brook Lopez

Donte DiVincenzo

Ersan Illyasova ($7M contract for 2020-2021, but it's not guaranteed.)

Robin Lopez (likely to pick up his $5M option)

2022 2nd round pick from Indiana

2024 1st round pick

2020-21 MLE Exception (for signing free agents)

 

Note: we cannot trade our 2023 1st round pick as you can't trade consecutive 1st rounders

 

We've traded our 2020 1st rounder, 2020, 2nd rounder, 2021 2nd rounder, 2022 1st rounder

 

MAKE YOUR TRADES/SIGNINGS

 

With all that, what are your move(s)? And just as important - how do you accomplish them?

 

While finances are always an issue, it's not always easy to calculate that stuff. So go over the cap in total salary - but DON'T mess with the cap with regards to who we can actually sign (thus, we can't spend $17M a year on signing Gallinari as we don't have that space. And we can't trade Bledsoe for Chris Paul as Blesoe's salary isn't at least $33M - which is the 80% rule required for trades made for players while over the cap).

 

Please let me know if you see any errors. Thanks.

[nate82]

Trades:

Wizards receive Bledsoe, Wilson, 2020 1st round pick, 2024 1st round pick (unprotected)

Bucks receive: Beal

 

Crazy never going to happen trade

Bucks receive: Simmons

Rockets receive: Bledsoe and Embiid

76ers receive: Westbrook, Covington and Ilyasova

 

Trade 1:

Bucks receive: Montrezl Harrell in a sign and trade (4 years $42m)

Clippers receive: Ilyasova and Smart

Celtics receive: Beverly

Trade 2:

Bucks receive: Paul

Thunder receive: Bledsoe and B. Lopez

 

If you get both of those trades the starting lineup looks like

PG: Paul

SG: Donte

SF: Middleton

PF: Giannis

C: Harrell

 

You could then add one of Robinson, Burks, or Galloway at the MLE for a backup SG and then whoever the Bucks pick up in the draft to play the rest of the minutes.

 

FA:

PG: Augustin, Clarkson, and Mudiay all could be had for the MLE.

SG: Glenn Robinson III, Burks, Galloway all could be had for the MLE.

SF: Jackson I think would get a minimum contract

PF: None for MLE

C: None for MLE

[HiAndTight]

Trades:

Wizards receive Bledsoe, Wilson, 2020 1st round pick, 2024 1st round pick (unprotected)

Bucks receive: Beal

 

Crazy never going to happen trade

Bucks receive: Simmons

Rockets receive: Bledsoe and Embiid

76ers receive: Westbrook, Covington and Ilyasova

 

Trade 1:

Bucks receive: Montrezl Harrell in a sign and trade (4 years $42m)

Clippers receive: Ilyasova and Smart

Celtics receive: Beverly

Trade 2:

Bucks receive: Paul

Thunder receive: Bledsoe and B. Lopez

 

If you get both of those trades the starting lineup looks like

PG: Paul

SG: Donte

SF: Middleton

PF: Giannis

C: Harrell

 

You could then add one of Robinson, Burks, or Galloway at the MLE for a backup SG and then whoever the Bucks pick up in the draft to play the rest of the minutes.

 

FA:

PG: Augustin, Clarkson, and Mudiay all could be had for the MLE.

SG: Glenn Robinson III, Burks, Galloway all could be had for the MLE.

SF: Jackson I think would get a minimum contract

PF: None for MLE

C: None for MLE

 

 

Ersan's salary can't be used in trades.

[HiAndTight]

I don't mean to suggest that trading Giannis would net equal value. Certainly quantity doesn't equal quality in the NBA. More that when you're headed for a non-Giannis rebuild, getting something back would cut down those rebuild years by a third. We've all seen just how long a rebuild can take.

 

 

I think a BEST case scenario for a trade would really be what OKC got back for Paul George last year. They got a massive return for him. A young star player and a LOT of future firsts.

 

I mean...that'll look nice a year from now if Giannis leaves and we've got nothing, but I'd much-much rather just go with Giannis for another year and then tear it all down for about 5 years and rebuild.

 

If they do this though, they need to do a Sixers like rebuild.

[nodakfan17]

If we’re being honest, I think the Bucks have a better chance of winning the NBA Finals in 1 year with Giannis than they would in 10 years without him (no matter who they draft or receive in a trade).

[tmwiese55]

I think Ersan can be used if they pick up his option. But it can't be used to make the trade and then the team just decline the option to save money. Of course I could be wrong here but that's the way I understand it.

[reillymcshane]

I think Ersan can be used if they pick up his option. But it can't be used to make the trade and then the team just decline the option to save money. Of course I could be wrong here but that's the way I understand it.

This is 100% correct.

 

We'd have to pick up Ersan's contract, and then he can be traded.

[reillymcshane]

Trades:

Wizards receive Bledsoe, Wilson, 2020 1st round pick, 2024 1st round pick (unprotected)

Bucks receive: Beal

I think this undervalues Beal by a lot.

[reillymcshane]

 

Crazy never going to happen trade

Bucks receive: Simmons

Rockets receive: Bledsoe and Embiid

76ers receive: Westbrook, Covington and Ilyasova

This is never happening. The Sixers give up Embiid and Simmons and end up with Westbrook and Covington? That's a terrible deal for them.

 

Bucks make out like bandits. It's basically Bledsoe for Simmons. No way.

 

Ilyasova at $7M doesn't really add value.

[reillymcshane]

If we’re being honest, I think the Bucks have a better chance of winning the NBA Finals in 1 year with Giannis than they would in 10 years without him (no matter who they draft or receive in a trade).

Exactly. That's why you give it another try. Go all in in 2020-21. If Giannis leaves - well, time to blow things up. Or perhaps a sign-and-trade would work for the team if he's going to leave.

[adambr2]

Trades:

Wizards receive Bledsoe, Wilson, 2020 1st round pick, 2024 1st round pick (unprotected)

Bucks receive: Beal

I think this undervalues Beal by a lot.

 

Is it closer with DDV instead of Wilson?

[patrickgpe]

its closer as DDV is a better player than Wilson, but wizards don't make that deal either.

[reillymcshane]

Trades:

Wizards receive Bledsoe, Wilson, 2020 1st round pick, 2024 1st round pick (unprotected)

Bucks receive: Beal

I think this undervalues Beal by a lot.

 

Is it closer with DDV instead of Wilson?

Sure it's closer - but I still don't think it's there.

 

Bucks have a lot of good pieces - but no one that can be transformative to the Wizards. Bledsoe (limited upside, almost 31, rep for collapsing in the playoffs), a couple of late 1st round picks, and DJ Wilson (really a non-factor here) are some decent assets. And DDV is a solid player.

 

But I still don't think it gets you there. It's more quantity for quality. Beal is probably a top 20-25 player in the league. Those aren't easy to acquire - and thus you have to pay a premium for them.

[HiAndTight]

I think Ersan can be used if they pick up his option. But it can't be used to make the trade and then the team just decline the option to save money. Of course I could be wrong here but that's the way I understand it.

This is 100% correct.

 

We'd have to pick up Ersan's contract, and then he can be traded.

 

 

Of course...but at that point, how much value does he have? I was under the mistaken impression that you could trade his non-guaranteed salary to a team....such as the Wizards, to help them dump salary. If that was the case, he'd have value. I guess he still has some as an expiring salary.

[HiAndTight]

Sure it's closer - but I still don't think it's there.

 

Bucks have a lot of good pieces - but no one that can be transformative to the Wizards. Bledsoe (limited upside, almost 31, rep for collapsing in the playoffs), a couple of late 1st round picks, and DJ Wilson (really a non-factor here) are some decent assets. And DDV is a solid player.

 

But I still don't think it gets you there. It's more quantity for quality. Beal is probably a top 20-25 player in the league. Those aren't easy to acquire - and thus you have to pay a premium for them.

 

I wonder if the Bucks could give the Wizzards the option to swap picks in the future to push this potential deal over the edge. I can't really see any trade that works with Beal...but maybe they hope Giannis leaves?

 

 

Bledsoe is a really nice player(though obviously only for the first 82 games), and with his contract only guaranteed for...what, 3 million in 21-22, so he has some value, but Beal's one of the best guards in the league. Pretty much the perfect fit for the Bucks, but I would think the Wizards would be able to get a much-much better return for him.

 

 

Does this package get you Buddy Hield? I think that might be a more realistic target at this point...maybe Hield and Barnes or Corey Joseph if the Kings want to get rid of either? They could probably get value for Barnes in a normal year, but I don't know how much value he has this off-season. Joseph seems like the type of guy they'd want to get rid of and he could replace Bledsoe as he's a pretty good defender and a decent backup.

 

 

It's been pretty obvious since last off-season Horst was going to have a very difficult job improving this roster. The best chance may be by drafting and developing, but as that takes time and we're on a clock here, it'll be impressive if he can find a way to add a 3rd difference-maker....all the more so if he can add a player better than Middleton with what we have to offer.