Stearns & Company Five Years In

[sveumrules]

With the postseason nearing an end & the offseason about to get started, now seems like as good a time as any to see how the Brewers have fared in the half decade since Stearns & company took the reigns.

 

No front office is perfect & gets every evaluation correct, so all you can really do is tally up the good against the bad & see how it compares to the rest of the league. The best shorthand measurement I can think of for that would be team wins....

 

2016-20 WINS: 01 LAD (436) 02 HOU (424) 03 CLE (415) 04 NYY (411) 05 CHC (408) 06 BOS (402) 07 WAS (393) 08 STL (378) 09 TBR (374) 10 OAK (374) 11 MIL (373) 12 ATL (362) 13 MIN (359) 14 ARI (354) 15 COL (350) 16 SEA (348) 17 NYM (346) 18 TEX (340) 19 TOR (337) 20 LAA (332) 21 SFG (330) 22 PHI (326) 23 PIT (323) 24 CHW (314) 25 SDP (312) 26 CIN (309) 27 MIA (307) 28 KCR (304) 29 BAL (290) 30 DET (284)

 

The 11th most wins in MLB, only one fewer than model small market franchises Tampa Bay & Oakland, not too bad. Now of course, not all franchises are created equally. Certain teams have considerable budgetary advantages over others...

 

2016-20 PAYROLL in MILLION$: 01 LAD (994.9) 02 NYY (949.7) 03 BOS (922.5) 04 CHC (860.5) 05 SFG (820.8) 06 WAS (793.6) 07 LAA (760.4) 08 STL (723.1) 09 DET (683.6) 10 TEX (677.6) 11 NYM (676.9) 12 SEA (665.7) 13 HOU (648.3) 14 TOR (647.6) 15 COL (605.8) 16 BAL (563.0) 17 KCR (559.8) 18 PHI (558.9) 19 ATL (552.1) 20 CLE (541.9) 21 MIN (520.0) 22 ARI (503.0) 23 CIN (483.9) 24 SDP (439.1) 25 CHW (431.3) 26 MIL (413.7) 27 MIA (405.8) 28 PIT (388.4) 29 OAK (373.5) 30 TBR (315.8)

 

*for payroll I used Cots year end 40 man totals from 2016-19 & prorated opening day for 2020 since they don't have the year end figures posted yet*

 

Since Stearns & company arrived there are 25 teams that have spent more money on payroll than the Brewers, but only 8 of those teams have won more games than the Brewers.

 

Of the 17 teams that spent more to win less, 13 made zero or one postseason appearance compared to the Brewers three.

 

Put it all together & the Brewers have predictably been one of the most fiscally efficient teams in MLB under Stearns & company...

 

2016-20 MILLION$ per WIN: 01 TBR (0.84) 02 OAK (1.00) 03 MIL (1.11) 04 PIT (1.20) 05 CLE (1.31) 06 MIA (1.32) 07 CHW (1.37) 08 SDP (1.41) 09 ARI (1.42) 10 MIN (1.45) 11 ATL (1.53) 12 HOU (1.53) 13 CIN (1.57) 14 PHI (1.71) 15 COL (1.73) 16 KCR (1.84) 17 SEA (1.91) 18 STL (1.91) 19 TOR (1.92) 20 BAL (1.94) 21 NYM (1.96) 22 TEX (1.99) 23 WAS (2.02) 24 CHC (2.11) 25 LAD (2.28) 26 LAA (2.29) 27 BOS (2.29) 28 NYY (2.31) 29 DET (2.41) 30 SFG (2.49)

 

Now of course there are no dollar per win trophies, banners or parades. But at the same time the economic realities of MLB are the economic realities of MLB & until there is some structural change to those realities, whoever is in charge of the Brewers will have to spend wisely & maintain some degree of future flexibilty if they hope to have sustained success.

 

Much like I would expect Christian Yelich's 2021 OPS+ to be closer to the 149 mark he posted from 2016-19 than the 111 mark he posted in 2020, one year of mediocre results from Stearns & company in a pandemic shortened & altered season doesn't cause me much concern considering the totality of their results.

[Madhawk23]

Good analysis here, and thanks for posting. As much as we all can nitpick some of the moves that didn't work out well this past offseason (and there were plenty), we really cannot complain much at all about what Stearns & Co. (along with CC) have done with this franchise since taking over. He mentioned in his introductory press conference that he wanted to make the Brewers competitive year in and year out, and I think he's done just that.

 

Now.....these next 5 years could be the most challenging (assuming of course he doesn't bolt to take the NYM job), so it'll be interesting to see if he can continue this run of competitive seasons.

[dlk9s]

My evaluation: thumbs up!

[djoctagone]

i'm only happy when stearns reigns.

[Eye Black]

Now of course there are no dollar per win trophies, banners or parades. But at the same time the economic realities of MLB are the economic realities of MLB & until there is some structural change to those realities, whoever is in charge of the Brewers will have to spend wisely & maintain some degree of future flexibilty if they hope to have sustained success.

Well actually... "The Belt"

 

In all seriousness, for a franchise that never truly bottomed out during the "rebuild" they have done about as well as I could've imagined over the past 5 years. Navigating the next 5 years with seemingly increased pressure on the budget and a need for more top tier organizational talent under 25 years old will prove a challenge. I trust Stearns and Matt Arnold to be equipped to handle those challenges better than most alternatives.

[JimH5]

He's been a great GM for the franchise. There is a lot to the job beyond roster construction, but that's the most important part, and he has found ways to keep the team competitive within whatever budget he has been afforded.

[monty57]

I'll agree with the OP, and add that he was hired after a 68-94 season in the belief that he would be guiding them through a rebuild. The only Brewers 1st round draft picks that were on the roster were Ryan Braun and Jeremy Jeffress from 2005 & 2006, and payroll was getting cut nearly in half in his first season.

 

If you had polled Brewers fans at the end of the 2015 season as to when they thought the next winning season would be, they would have guessed at least 3-4 years, and most would probably have laughed at the notion of three straight playoff appearances in 2018-2020. The prize most people thought we'd get was a string of top 10 draft picks.

 

As Madtownhawk said, it will be interesting to see if he can continue his success in the coming seasons, but for his first five years, he has to get a resounding "A" grade.

[brewers888]

Stearns should get an A before last offseason but he gets an F for his work since then. Overall I think he deserves a solid B but I don't like that he moved Ray Montgomery away from handling the draft where he has excelled for years even before he came back to Milwaukee.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Stearns should get an A before last offseason but he gets an F for his work since then. Overall I think he deserves a solid B but I don't like that he moved Ray Montgomery away from handling the draft where he has excelled for years even before he came back to Milwaukee.

 

An F? For a team that made the playoff? Yikes. I could understand b/c range, but this is a bit harsh.

[wallus]

The real question is what other GMs would you take over DS?

[brewers888]

Stearns should get an A before last offseason but he gets an F for his work since then. Overall I think he deserves a solid B but I don't like that he moved Ray Montgomery away from handling the draft where he has excelled for years even before he came back to Milwaukee.

 

An F? For a team that made the playoff? Yikes. I could understand b/c range, but this is a bit harsh.

 

Yes his last offseason deserves an F because nearly all his moves were terrible. As far as making the playoffs we all know this was not a playoff caliber team and sneaking in with a 29-31 record with a 4th place finish in the division is not something to be proud of.

[pacopete4]

In a season where nearly everything went wrong? Can’t please everyone.

[brewers888]

In a season where nearly everything went wrong? Can’t please everyone.

 

I don’t expect to make the playoffs every year and realize we have extreme financial limitations but with that said this years team was not good and only made it because of the ridiculous playoff format.

[brewers888]

Stearns has been a very good GM and I hope we don’t lose him to the Mets but his 2019 offseason was pretty disastrous.

[Eye Black]

Using the term “disastrous” is hyperbole. A disastrous offseason is one that sets an organization back years. Signing Madison Bumgarner to a 5 year, $85 million deal is borderline disastrous. Giving tens of millions to relievers that immediately go in the tank or succumb to chronic injury problems is disastrous.

 

The only way last offseason could prove to be truly disastrous is if Christian Yelich never bounces back towards his career norms. That’s the lone true disaster that could possibly linger from last offseason, and for now I’ll bet on Yelich making a course correction over a typical season.

[monty57]

Using the term “disastrous” is hyperbole. A disastrous offseason is one that sets an organization back years. Signing Madison Bumgarner to a 5 year, $85 million deal is borderline disastrous. Giving tens of millions to relievers that immediately go in the tank or succumb to chronic injury problems is disastrous.

 

The only way last offseason could prove to be truly disastrous is if Christian Yelich never bounces back towards his career norms. That’s the lone true disaster that could possibly linger from last offseason, and for now I’ll bet on Yelich making a course correction over a typical season.

 

Good point. Yelich, Cain, and Peralta are the only longer term guaranteed deals I can think of that Stearns has committed to. It seems that he likes to add young, "controlled talent" any way he can to build a core, and I expect he will look to extend young talent when it makes sense, mainly using free agency to fill in the gaps with short-term deals. He's also shown the ability to make the tough decision to cut ties with players when their cost exceeds their value. Free agency is the most expensive way to add talent, where you only get the player if you are the highest bidder, so smaller market teams can't survive long if their main source of talent acquisition is free agency.

 

Short term deals are by nature going to be hit or miss. If they were "sure things," they wouldn't be signing a one-year deal. Brett Anderson pitched well, and Gyorko played pretty well, but the rest of the short-term signings fell flat. Unfortunately, so did our "sure things" in guys like Yelich and Hiura, which highlighted the fact that many of our "fill in the gap" one-year deal guys weren't playing well. I still believe that Yelich and Hiura are good players who will be the center of our core for years to come, and I believe that one-year deals to vets can help the team without the chance of hurting us long-term.

 

Stearns and Melvin are two of the most successful GMs in Brewer history, but they have very different ways to build a team. I personally like Stearns' style better, as I think it has a better chance of maintaining success in a smaller market year-over-year without having to tear down and rebuild. That we didn't have a long rebuilding period as we transitioned from Melvin to Stearns is a minor miracle, and I think that in itself should give Stearns a lot of "leash." Then there's the three straight playoff appearances for the first time in team history. Finally, we only lose one player to free agency, so Stearns holds the cards as to which players he wants to retain and which ones he wants to replace this offseason.

 

Even though we had some down years in this crazy 2020 season, we still have a lot of talent on this roster, and I'm looking forward to see what moves are made this offseason.

[JohnBriggs12]

Stearns should get an A before last offseason but he gets an F for his work since then. Overall I think he deserves a solid B but I don't like that he moved Ray Montgomery away from handling the draft where he has excelled for years even before he came back to Milwaukee.

 

An F? For a team that made the playoff? Yikes. I could understand b/c range, but this is a bit harsh.

 

They were 16th out of 16 teams that made the playoffs and the arrow is pointing in the wrong direction. He went from F to D by seeing value in Vogelbach that the rest of the league didn't and a few others turned out ok, but his big move was the deal with SD and that was a clunker.

 

Overall though he gets no more than a B.

[MrTPlush]

I mean even grabbing Volgelbach was hardly an accomplishment. It was basically just throwing crud at the wall, we got lucky, and he was hot for a week or two. He is still an overweight DH that really doesn't have good offense for his role. The move was nothing more than rearranging deck chairs when we had nothing to lose.

 

Since 2018 we have been solidly on the decline, but when you make it to Game 7 of the NLCS as a small market that's almost a given. By all accounts 2019 was still a great year. 2020 was a pretty bad year for Stearns, but as mentioned he hasn't crippled us long term. Sadly, after the pandemic the front office may cripple his payroll for him. It is going to be tough going forward for Stearns, but I think he has a decent core to build around...especially if Burnes/Woodruff continue to excel.

[monty57]

If Yelich and Hiura lived up to expectations this season, we're easily ahead of St Louis and Cincy and possibly would've won the division. Heck, if Cain hadn't opted out, we might have been second in the division.

 

He made a couple moves that didn't pan out, but with a whole lot of things going wrong, we still hovered around .500 all (short) season and made the playoffs. He got rid of Thames and built a team that had platoon splits and flexibility before it was announced that we'd have a DH.

 

Finally, this was a 60 game season, which normally would have us sitting at 29-31 at the end of May, two months before the trade deadline with 102 games to go. There are always strange things that happen in a 60-game stretch. Unfortunately, we had a few more negatives than positives, but again, we still made the playoffs, and we still have a lot of talent on the roster.

 

For a team that had only made the playoffs four times in the 45 years prior to David Stearns being hired, I'd think a guy that inherited a 68-94 "rebuilding" team and got three playoff seasons in his first five years should get a little bit more credit. Especially when the complaints are that we "only" made the Wild Card in a 60 game pseudo-season played when the world is experiencing an episode of the Twilight Zone.

[dlk9s]

Stearns should get an A before last offseason but he gets an F for his work since then. Overall I think he deserves a solid B but I don't like that he moved Ray Montgomery away from handling the draft where he has excelled for years even before he came back to Milwaukee.

 

An F? For a team that made the playoff? Yikes. I could understand b/c range, but this is a bit harsh.

 

Yes his last offseason deserves an F because nearly all his moves were terrible.

 

There was absolutely no reason to think that some of the guys he brought in were going to be so bad. Garcia and Narvaez, specifically, had solid track records and looked like nice pickups. A few guys were obviously just fillers with the hopes they could be productive. A couple others like Phelps and Gyorko were very good signings.

 

I mean, you win some, you lose some. The problem was that some of the ones he "lost" were both very unexpected and exceedingly terrible.

 

(besides, we don't know if things would've been different in a normal season)

[PeaveyFury]

(besides, we don't know if things would've been different in a normal season)

 

It really is so hard to know. I can't help but think that when you turn a large part of the roster over as they did, you really do have a disadvantage when you don't have a full-length season to truly 'gel' as a team and get closer with new teammates and such. And clearly some of the best hitters in baseball were never able to get on track, so you have to think that the significant disruption to the usual routine of the season had a negative impact.

 

Still, the great thing about what the Brewers did last off season was that they're not tied to nearly all of those guys they brought in going forward if they don't want to be, so they can pick and choose who they think was an anomaly and who they think is just toast.

[RightFieldCoder]

I doubt the Yelich deal was a spur of the moment decision. Stearns was probably negotiating that contract all off season. That means there was a large question about whether he was on the team in the 20s and what payroll obligations the Brewers had. So it would make sense that he would target short contracts especially one year deals. There aren't a lot of great/excellent players who want to do that. Stearns probably knew that 2020 would be a bit of a patchwork until Yelich was either signed or traded. If things were normal I'd expect the 2021 offseason to be another solid win. With the state of affairs it will probably be another subpar offseason with all of the payroll the Brewers need to lose.

[3and2Fastball]

Making the playoffs 3 years in a row, and the rebuilding/redesign of the Spring Training Complex are huge accomplishments.

 

With the emergence of Woodruff and Burnes, the Brewers have put to rest the long held belief that they cannot draft and develop TOR pitchers.

 

Trading for Yelich and then signing him after his MVP season to a long term contract was also a huge accomplishment.

 

I’m the type of fan that will never be completely satisfied until the Brewers win a World Series, but I remain optimistic that they can and will do it under Stearns’ leadership.

[3and2Fastball]

The real question is what other GMs would you take over DS?

 

Erik Neander. Possibly. It would be a tough choice.

[HiAndTight]

The real question is what other GMs would you take over DS?

 

Erik Neander. Possibly. It would be a tough choice.

 

 

I'd have known who that was a few years ago...as it stands today I'd have just made the lazy, "get the Rays GM" idea and come to the same but less informed conclusion.