2020 Rule 5 Draft - Early predictions

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm going to assume the Rule 5 draft will occur as usual and that the 2020 season counts for purposes of determining eligibility even though some of these players did not "play" in 2020. Here are the rules:

 

The Rule 5 draft is held each December at the Winter Meetings, and it consists of a Major League portion and a minor league portion. By November 20, each club must set its 40-man roster and submit reserve lists for all major and minor-league levels (See Minor League Rosters). Between November 20 and the Rule 5 draft, a club may add Major League free agents to its 40-man roster but may not add any player from its minor league reserve lists.

After 4 or 5 years as a professional, a player must be added to his club’s 40-man roster or exposed to the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft. (Under the new CBA, a club has 5 years to evaluate a player who signs his first pro contract at 18 years old or younger, but only 4 years to decide on a player who signs at age 19.) For purposes of calculating years as a pro, the counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins to play.

 

I believe the Brewers will have 5 spots open on the 40 man roster after end of season transactions are completed. There are 41 men currently on roster (including Cain), with six removed at end of season. This is how I calculated that:

 

Free Agents: Brett Anderson

DFA or Option declined: Ryan Braun, Ben Gamel, Ryon Healy (arby eligilbe), Kneble, Manny Pina, Eric Sogard

 

The minor league players I believe will be added in order of probability:

 

Locks to be added: Mario Feliciano, Peyton Henry

Likely to be added: Alec Bettinger, Dylan File (both were on 60 man roster)

Maybe: Bowden Francis, Zack Brown, Braden Webb, (all were on 60 man roster), QTC (instructional)

The rest: Cooper Hummel, Spanberger, Nate Kirby, Miguel Sanchez

 

This is a list of who I think are in consideration. There are obviously more players eligible than I list and some I may have missed. It is really hard to predict this year because we dont have any minor league stats to work off of. All we have is the actions the brewers took during the year. I gave players added to the 60 man roster and instructional league more likelihood of being protected.

 

That's my prediction. What do you think?

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think Feliciano is the only lock. I might actually put Brown as the second-most likely. He was clearly the top pitcher not on the 40-man given his spot on the extended postseason roster. I’d put File and Henry at 50% and Bettinger and Francis at 40%. Everyone else is less than 5%.

[djoctagone]

this will be interesting. only 11 players were taken in last year's rule 5 draft--the fewest since 2000. and that was with the benefit of having a 26th roster spot all season.

 

players lost a lot of development time this year, and outside scouts weren't allowed at alternate training sites, so drafting a player with a year's gap in data and development has higher risks.

 

but, on the flip side, for clubs that are revenue-strapped, it's an easy way to carry one or two guys for just the major league minimum for the entire 2021 season. and the rule 5 draft is also a way to supplement this year's rule 4 draft, which had only five rounds.