The Changing Aesthetic of MLB: Outcome Frequencies 1986-2020

[KeithStone53151]

Maybe if the ball truly is deadened, guys will stop with the hr cuts...especially with 2 strikes. Nothing like watching a guy like Travis shaw try to hit a 1-2 pitch 600 feet.

 

Also, I would think a deadened ball could lead to a lot more texas Leaguers, as bloopers should theoretically not travel as far and be a bit more likely to fall in vs hang up on the air forever until an OF can get there.

[Eye Black]

Baseball Prospectus had a really good article on the anticipated impact of the deadened baseball, Estimating the Impact of the Deadened Ball on Home Runs

 

The article is subscription based, but the author also shared his spreadsheets on the impact to individual hitters/pitchers for free, here’s the Twitter Link.

 

 

A few takeaways:

 

-If MLB went back to using a ball closer to the 2018 baseball then home runs in 2019-20 would’ve dropped on the whole by 7.98%. The important point is that 8% reduction is just an average across the league, and it would impact specific hitters and pitchers differently. For hitters power and attack angle vary significantly and for pitchers it depends of whether they allow harder or weaker contact.

 

 

-For hitters there are two categories shown for individual hitters, (1) total reduction in expected number of home runs if the 2018 baseball was used during the 2019-2020 seasons, and (2) percentage of expected home runs lost. The first is obviously going to impact the guys that already hit the most home runs since if you hit more home runs you stand to lose more with a deadened baseball. The second category is the percentage of your home runs lost, so it most affects guys that are lucky and hitting more “fluke” home runs (because their contact and/or attack angle isn’t conducive to hitting home runs).

 

The top of the first list for hitters was Mookie Betts and Nick Castellanos who would’ve been expected to hit between 5-6 less home runs since 2019 if the 2018 baseball had remained. The only Brewers player in the top 50 negatively impacted was Christian Yelich who came in at #40 with an expected drop in total home runs of around 3.25.

 

The second hitters list that was percentage based was led by Amed Rosario who would’ve seen an expected 16% drop in home runs if the 2018 baseball was used the past two seasons. Brewers appearing were Lorenzo Cain who was 18th on the list and would’ve had an expected drop off of 13% in expected home runs, and Omar Narvaez who was 38th and was just under a 13% drop off in expected home runs.

 

 

-So a deadened baseball is bad news for hitters, but quite the opposite for certain pitchers who are expected to allow less home runs. The author was surprised by the complete lack of correlation between fly ball rate and expected home run percentage (xHR). HR/FB% was slightly more related, but still not an overly strong correlation.

 

They broke the pitching data down by starters and relievers. For both they used the percentage of reduced home runs expected based on contact allowed. Mike Soroka led the list for starting pitchers with an expected drop in home run percentage of over 14%. Among starting pitchers Brett Anderson came in 14th at just under an 11% expected reduction in home runs the past two seasons if the 2018 ball would’ve remained. Other starters list appearance for the Brewers included Adrian Houser at 29th, Jordan Zimmermann was 32nd, and Eric Lauer 35th, all were near 10% in expected reduction. Brandon Woodruff was 71st with near an 8% reduction in xHR %.

 

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There is a ton more baked into this article, and definitely worth checking out along with the free charts. Obviously we don’t yet know how the 2021 ball will play in comparison to the 2018 ball, but if it’s even more “deadened” than we could be in for a lot less home runs this season. If it plays the same, then even an 8% reduction in home runs should be noticeable.

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe if the ball truly is deadened, guys will stop with the hr cuts...especially with 2 strikes. Nothing like watching a guy like Travis shaw try to hit a 1-2 pitch 600 feet.

 

If guys haven't made that change yet, they're not going to now. They'll just swing harder. Guys who are shifted against because they are big pull hitters don't change their approach at all, they just try to hit it over or through the shift.

[JohnBriggs12]

More than launch angle or the shifts, it's the increase in pitcher velocity that is responsible in the dramatic increase in strikeouts. I knew a guy who went to high school with a lefty pitcher named Bob Kipper, who was the 8th overall pick in the 82 draft out of high school. Now to be the 8th overall pick out of high school today, I would think it would take a 95-97 mph heater at minimum. My co-worker told me Kipper wooed the scouts with a steady 90 mph fastball that occasionally touched 91 or 92. Want to see guys today that throw that hard? Go see an independent league game and you'll see plenty of 90-91 mph fastballs.

 

I think moving the mound back a couple feet would result in a game more like we saw prior to the last 10 years or so.

[igor67]

Unemployment can be a powerful motivator though.

[jerichoholicninja]

More than launch angle or the shifts, it's the increase in pitcher velocity that is responsible in the dramatic increase in strikeouts. I knew a guy who went to high school with a lefty pitcher named Bob Kipper, who was the 8th overall pick in the 82 draft out of high school. Now to be the 8th overall pick out of high school today, I would think it would take a 95-97 mph heater at minimum. My co-worker told me Kipper wooed the scouts with a steady 90 mph fastball that occasionally touched 91 or 92. Want to see guys today that throw that hard? Go see an independent league game and you'll see plenty of 90-91 mph fastballs.

 

I think moving the mound back a couple feet would result in a game more like we saw prior to the last 10 years or so.

 

Pitching velocity is really what dictates the game right now. It leads to the all or nothing approach at the plate and on the mound that results in mostly K's and BB's with some HR's thrown in. Maybe moving the mound back would negate some of the advantages of velocity. I know the Atlantic League experimented with that a few years ago but I don't remember hearing if it made any difference.

[sveumrules]

Figured I'd give this thread a bump since non-pitchers have put up a collective slash of 235/314/396 with a 23.9 K% so far in 2021.

 

That batting average is ten points lower than both the pandemic altered 2020 & Year of the Pitcher 1968. It's literally never been harder to get a hit.

 

With expansion & lowering the mound in 1969 league batting average jumped a dozen points to .257. Maybe time to lower the mound again?

[owbc]

Figured I'd give this thread a bump since non-pitchers have put up a collective slash of 235/314/396 with a 23.9 K% so far in 2021.

 

That batting average is ten points lower than both the pandemic altered 2020 & Year of the Pitcher 1968. It's literally never been harder to get a hit.

 

With expansion & lowering the mound in 1969 league batting average jumped a dozen points to .257. Maybe time to lower the mound again?

 

Not a big surprise that getting rid of the juiced baseball has caused slugging to plunge this year. Meanwhile, game time per 9 innings is at a record high, 3:08.

 

The new strategy of choice in MLB is to draw walks and lots of them. Which is a pretty smart thing to do when BABIP has dropped to .284, the lowest since 1989. When you consider what exit velocity and launch angle averages were like in the 1980s vs. today, it's quite amazing that BABIP is that low.

[DuWayne Steurer]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31371552/mlb-hopes-offensive-numbers-perk-historically-rough-april-hitters

 

AJ Hinch "3to is not our best entertainment product" (paraphrased)

[TURBO]

Figured I'd give this thread a bump since non-pitchers have put up a collective slash of 235/314/396 with a 23.9 K% so far in 2021.

 

That batting average is ten points lower than both the pandemic altered 2020 & Year of the Pitcher 1968. It's literally never been harder to get a hit.

 

With expansion & lowering the mound in 1969 league batting average jumped a dozen points to .257. Maybe time to lower the mound again?

 

Not a big surprise that getting rid of the juiced baseball has caused slugging to plunge this year. Meanwhile, game time per 9 innings is at a record high, 3:08.

 

The new strategy of choice in MLB is to draw walks and lots of them. Which is a pretty smart thing to do when BABIP has dropped to .284, the lowest since 1989. When you consider what exit velocity and launch angle averages were like in the 1980s vs. today, it's quite amazing that BABIP is that low.

 

I am shocked it is only 3:08.

 

Brewers games routinely go 3:30 or more.