The Changing Aesthetic of MLB: Outcome Frequencies 1986-2020

[sveumrules]

There have been numerous discussions over the last howsoever many years about the clearly changing aesthetic of the game, which got me curious just how much baseball has changed over the years.

 

My earliest MLB memories of baseball go back to 1986 - pulling an Earnie Riles card from my first ever pack of Topps, watching Teddy Higuera striking out against Fernando Valenzuela in the All Star Game, Mookie's dribbler through Buckner's legs - so I started there.

 

You'll notice some outcomes missing from the table below. So I'll give a quick summary on those first. Also, all plate appearance outcome ratios are for position players only, I used the NP tab on the FanGraphs leaderboards to exclude pitchers from the yearly league totals.

 

Triples: so random & infrequent they have been the most consistent outcome over the years. From 1986-1994 they were at 0.5-0.6%, then stayed at 0.5% for 19 straight years before dropping down to 0.4-0.5% for the last eight seasons.

 

Sac Flies: also remarkably consistent. At 0.7% in 1986-87, they then ran off 15 straight years at 0.8% before dropping slightly to 0.7-0.8% for the next 14 years & now down to 0.6-0.7% the last four seasons.

 

Hit By Pitch: this was the most interesting to me of the infrequent outcomes. A mostly slow steady climb from 0.5-0.6% over 1986-1992 up to 0.7-0.9% from 1993-2000 then a little 0.8-1.0% plateau from 2001 to 2017 & a slow creep up to 1.2% over the last three seasons.

 

Sac Bunts: the disappearing. Starting at 0.7-0.8% from 1986-94, then falling to 0.5-0.6% from 1995-2013 before 0.4% in 2014 down to 0.2% the last three seasons. Reminder this is just the rate of position players bunting, pitchers not included.

 

Also, BIPOE% is the percentage of plate appearances that ended with Balls In Play Out or Error.

 

86: 16.2 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.4 HR% | 9.0 BB% | 14.8 K% | 51.1 BIPOE% | 4.41 R/G

87: 16.1 1B% | 4.3 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 15.0 K% | 50.3 BIPOE% | 4.72 R/G

88: 16.4 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.1 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 14.1 K% | 52.4 BIPOE% | 4.14 R/G

89: 16.5 1B% | 4.0 2B% | 2.0 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 14.3 K% | 52.1 BIPOE% | 4.13 R/G

90: 16.5 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.1 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 14.4 K% | 51.5 BIPOE% | 4.26 R/G

91: 16.2 1B% | 4.1 2B% | 2.2 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 14.8 K% | 51.1 BIPOE% | 4.31 R/G

92: 16.5 1B% | 4.2 2B% | 1.9 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 14.2 K% | 51.8 BIPOE% | 4.12 R/G

93: 16.6 1B% | 4.4 2B% | 2.4 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 14.6 K% | 50.4 BIPOE% | 4.60 R/G

94: 16.2 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 15.4 K% | 49.1 BIPOE% | 4.92 R/G

95: 16.2 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 9.3 BB% | 15.7 K% | 48.9 BIPOE% | 4.85 R/G

96: 16.3 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.9 HR% | 9.3 BB% | 16.0 K% | 48.2 BIPOE% | 5.04 R/G

97: 16.1 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 16.5 K% | 48.3 BIPOE% | 4.77 R/G

98: 16.0 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.9 BB% | 16.4 K% | 48.4 BIPOE% | 4.79 R/G

99: 16.1 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 3.0 HR% | 9.6 BB% | 15.9 K% | 48.0 BIPOE% | 5.08 R/G

00: 15.8 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 3.1 HR% | 9.8 BB% | 15.9 K% | 48.0 BIPOE% | 5.14 R/G

01: 15.5 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 3.0 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 16.8 K% | 48.4 BIPOE% | 4.78 R/G

02: 15.5 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.9 BB% | 16.3 K% | 48.9 BIPOE% | 4.62 R/G

03: 15.7 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 2.9 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 15.9 K% | 49.2 BIPOE% | 4.73 R/G

04: 15.7 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 3.0 HR% | 8.8 BB% | 16.3 K% | 48.6 BIPOE% | 4.81 R/G

05: 15.9 1B% | 4.9 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 16.0 K% | 49.3 BIPOE% | 4.59 R/G

06: 16.0 1B% | 5.0 2B% | 2.9 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 16.3 K% | 48.4 BIPOE% | 4.86 R/G

07: 16.0 1B% | 5.0 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 16.6 K% | 48.3 BIPOE% | 4.80 R/G

08: 15.8 1B% | 4.9 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 8.9 BB% | 17.0 K% | 48.1 BIPOE% | 4.65 R/G

09: 15.6 1B% | 4.8 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 9.1 BB% | 17.5 K% | 47.6 BIPOE% | 4.61 R/G

10: 15.6 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 2.6 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 18.0 K% | 47.8 BIPOE% | 4.38 R/G

11: 15.5 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.5 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 18.1 K% | 48.3 BIPOE% | 4.28 R/G

12: 15.4 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.8 HR% | 8.1 BB% | 19.2 K% | 47.4 BIPOE% | 4.32 R/G

13: 15.6 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 2.6 HR% | 8.1 BB% | 19.3 K% | 47.5 BIPOE% | 4.17 R/G

14: 15.7 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 2.3 HR% | 7.8 BB% | 19.9 K% | 47.3 BIPOE% | 4.07 R/G

15: 15.4 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 2.7 HR% | 7.8 BB% | 19.9 K% | 47.1 BIPOE% | 4.25 R/G

16: 15.1 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 3.1 HR% | 8.3 BB% | 20.6 K% | 45.9 BIPOE% | 4.48 R/G

17: 14.7 1B% | 4.6 2B% | 3.4 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 21.2 K% | 45.1 BIPOE% | 4.65 R/G

18: 14.4 1B% | 4.5 2B% | 3.1 HR% | 8.6 BB% | 21.7 K% | 45.2 BIPOE% | 4.45 R/G

19: 14.0 1B% | 4.7 2B% | 3.7 HR% | 8.7 BB% | 22.4 K% | 44.2 BIPOE% | 4.83 R/G

20: 13.6 1B% | 4.2 2B% | 3.5 HR% | 9.2 BB% | 23.4 K% | 43.7 BIPOE% | 4.65 R/G

 

I guess the headline for me would be that as recently as 2005, a plate appearance was just as likely to end in a single (15.9%) as a strikeout (16.0%). Over the last 15 years that ratio has tilted to 13.6% for a single & 23.4% for a strikeout.

 

I think the other thing that jumps out to me is that recently the numbers have been much more volatile. From 1986-2014, 1B% has an overall downward trend, but it is within a pretty narrow band from 16.6-15.5%. Over the last six seasons (only 1/5th as long) it has already dropped a full 2%.

 

Same thing with K%. It took from 1986-2012 (27 seasons) to rise 4.4% from 14.8% to 19.2%, but has only taken from 2013 until this year (8 seasons) to rise the other 4.2% from 19.2% to 23.4%.

 

Even doubles, which held relatively steady between 4.4-5.0% from expansion in 1993 through 2019, dropped down to 4.2% this year for the first time in over 25 years.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Thanks for doing this work. It definitely does show that the game is changing, and a lot, in a relatively short amount of time.

[wntrtxn21]

Great stuff showing how the game has changed in a relatively short time. HR hitters are getting the big, big contracts. Guys who hit 1Bs and 2Bs, put the ball in play and get on base are becoming more rare every year. Those guys rarely make the gigantic money. The huge emphasis is now launch angle. The big "slow pitch" uppercut has become commonplace throughout baseball. With hitters taking the big hacks no matter what the count, I think the precipitous leap in Ks will continue for quite a while.

[jerichoholicninja]

The increase in HBP makes sense with all the armor players wear and the general lack of control pitchers have nowadays combined with the increased velocity and less time to get out of the way. It's such a minuscule part of the game that only the diehard-est of fans will even care about but I feel that batters should be able to wear all the armor they want but getting hit in the armor won't get you the base, it just counts as a ball. With fastballs frequently coming in around 100 MPH batters need some protection but let's not reward the guys who are leaning into curveballs with all their plastic.

[TURBO]

let's not reward the guys who are leaning into curveballs with all their plastic.

 

There is already a rule in place for this, but it is seldom, if ever enforced.

[jerichoholicninja]

let's not reward the guys who are leaning into curveballs with all their plastic.

 

There is already a rule in place for this, but it is seldom, if ever enforced.

 

I know that but it's a judgement rule that like you said is almost never enforced. If the rule says that getting hit in your armor won't get you the base then that is more clearly defined and more likely to be enforced.

[WV Brew]

The increase in HBP makes sense with all the armor players wear and the general lack of control pitchers have nowadays combined with the increased velocity and less time to get out of the way. It's such a minuscule part of the game that only the diehard-est of fans will even care about but I feel that batters should be able to wear all the armor they want but getting hit in the armor won't get you the base, it just counts as a ball. With fastballs frequently coming in around 100 MPH batters need some protection but let's not reward the guys who are leaning into curveballs with all their plastic.

 

I don't know if anyone else saw it but Willson Contreras is one of those players who armor up ridiculously. Against Miami he moved his arm in front of the ball and then headed towards first base but the pitcher complained and the umpire called Contreras back without his HBP. Contreras spent the rest of the game grousing to the pitcher but the right call was made in my opinion. MLB should take a look at some of this armor if these types of things continue.

[TURBO]

let's not reward the guys who are leaning into curveballs with all their plastic.

 

There is already a rule in place for this, but it is seldom, if ever enforced.

 

I know that but it's a judgement rule that like you said is almost never enforced. If the rule says that getting hit in your armor won't get you the base then that is more clearly defined and more likely to be enforced.

 

Does that include the helmet?

[JohnBriggs12]

I think a lot of what's happened since 2014 has to due with extreme shifting. When you put 3 infielders on either side of 2nd base, the corner infielders can play closer to the lines and take away doubles and it's very hard to pull anything on the ground through on a hitter's pull side. Hitters have combated shifts by trying to lift balls over shifts and that's contributed to the increased strikeout and HR rates.

 

It was a better game and much more watchable before shifts took over. Players and pitchers didn't all have to have the same skill set to be successful.

[owbc]

Really nice analysis--the plunge in BIPOE is really quite dramatic. I agree that it still potentially has a long way to go before reaching a new steady state.

 

As much as I hate these trends, the shift to the pitcher vs. batter matchup as opposed to the pitcher vs. baserunner might be a bigger loss for the sport. If a walk or 1B had a higher chance of turning into a run (via stolen bases) it would make contact hitting + speed more valuable. Especially with shifting seemingly taking away some doubles lately--the lost art of the "Rickey Henderson double" (walk+SB) is a way to make a 3TO play more entertaining. Having speed guys on the bases also makes it more difficult for the infield to get away with dramatic shifts.

[jerichoholicninja]

Does that include the helmet?

 

No.

[jerichoholicninja]

Really nice analysis--the plunge in BIPOE is really quite dramatic. I agree that it still potentially has a long way to go before reaching a new steady state.

 

As much as I hate these trends, the shift to the pitcher vs. batter matchup as opposed to the pitcher vs. baserunner might be a bigger loss for the sport. If a walk or 1B had a higher chance of turning into a run (via stolen bases) it would make contact hitting + speed more valuable. Especially with shifting seemingly taking away some doubles lately--the lost art of the "Rickey Henderson double" (walk+SB) is a way to make a 3TO play more entertaining. Having speed guys on the bases also makes it more difficult for the infield to get away with dramatic shifts.

 

How many pitchers use a slide step these days? I don't have the exact answer but it's certainly very few and that's because they know no one's going to try and run on them anyway. I think you bring up a very good point. If pitchers would have to devote even a little of their concentration to baserunners it would give a little help to batters. Also putting runners in motion negates a little bit of the advantage of the shift as you now have to make your fielders leave their position.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's change the game to improve what the fans are watching.

1. Automated strike zone because

2. Fine players 1% of their yearly salary for every 10games their Kpct is above 32% starting from game 10 on the count.

3. Fine pitchers that have pitches recorded above 99.5mph. Essentially removing 100mph pitches from the game. Not sure what the fine would come to. Maybe the idea is 3-8times whatever the percentage of their pitches are above said 99.5mph.

The fined amounts can get put in to a pool and shared amongst all the players who didnt record any reasons to be fined. All pitches below 99.5MPH &not 1 10game Kpct. fining. For the better of game. Hopefully this reduces the TJs pitchers are rampant with in this era. Hopefully you see more batted balls in play.

And you are done with idiot umpire strike zones. No longer does a hitter have to start believing a pitch 2inches low,high,outside,or inside will be called a strike after a bad call. Swinging at garbage because what is a strike?

 

Another caveat could be that hitters literally can practice what the strike zone parameters are and learn a newer swing for contact in different parts of the zones.

[SomewhereInTime]

Let's change the game to improve what the fans are watching.

1. Automated strike zone because

2. Fine players 1% of their yearly salary for every 10games their Kpct is above 32% starting from game 10 on the count.

3. Fine pitchers that have pitches recorded above 99.5mph. Essentially removing 100mph pitches from the game. Not sure what the fine would come to. Maybe the idea is 3-8times whatever the percentage of their pitches are above said 99.5mph.

The fined amounts can get put in to a pool and shared amongst all the players who didnt record any reasons to be fined. All pitches below 99.5MPH &not 1 10game Kpct. fining. For the better of game. Hopefully this reduces the TJs pitchers are rampant with in this era. Hopefully you see more batted balls in play.

And you are done with idiot umpire strike zones. No longer does a hitter have to start believing a pitch 2inches low,high,outside,or inside will be called a strike after a bad call. Swinging at garbage because what is a strike?

 

Another caveat could be that hitters literally can practice what the strike zone parameters are and learn a newer swing for contact in different parts of the zones.

 

lol

[rickh150]

Baseball is tennis in the 90's... I used to enjoy watching a tennis match on tv, especially at Wimbledon..... so much serve and volley. Yet, there was strategy amid longer rallies. Then better equipment took over and all the aces took away my enjoyment in the sport.

Baseball looks more and more boring to me with all the strikeouts and less strategy. No get the runner over, no bunts, less steals.... less variety and movement. Watching a 3-1 game with 35 total strikeouts and runs happening by the HR only are becoming more the norm.

 

Baseball is now almost impossible for me to watch if the Brewers are not playing. Even with the team playing playoff baseball, it was pure awful watching the team barely lay wood on a ball most of the season.

[JimH5]

Great study, Sveum.

 

One other change from 1986 until now is the average time of game in 1986 was 2:48, and it has been higher (longer) than that in every season since. It's been at or above 3:00 every year since 2012.

 

There were on average, 2.8 pitchers used per team game in 1986, and that number has climbed to 4.43 pitchers used per team game in 2020.

 

Teams averaged 189 SB attempts in 1986 vs 104 in 2019.

 

Lots of reasons for baseball traditionalists to turn away from the modern game.

[NYChez]

Pitchers are throwing so hard today that it’s nearly impossible to make contact enough times to center an offense around getting multiple hits in multiple innings to score single runs. The “fix” would likely be to move the rubber back a couple of feet, but that will never happen.

 

Perhaps a new Moneyball will be to sign a bunch of Luis Arraez types. I’d like to see it, but it will be risky for the first team to try it. The way the Brewer offense struggled, I wouldn’t mind if Stearns tried it.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yeah, this is a great thread. Great original research and great responses.

 

I like the tennis analogy.

 

I also think high-contact guys might be the new market inefficiency, especially if you have some internal, proprietary metrics that show high BABIP is a skill. I'm comforted by this: we've reached an extreme. If the ball isn't dense and flying, players will adapt quickly, I think.

[nate82]

Are stolen bases the new OBP? Looking at the league as a whole the art of stealing a base is just non existent and I am not even talking about someone like Rickey Henderson but more along the lines of the Kenny Lofton and Marquis Grissom types. Baseball is kind of missing these type of players and also when was the last time you saw a team doing a hit and run? Even that strategy has gone away a bit.

 

I think if teams did more hit and runs you wouldn't see these exaggerated shifts as much. Baseball changes very slowly and the pitchers have finally caught up with the softball swings by pitching up in the zone. From Bellinger to Hiura all of the hitters that have an uppercut swing have a huge hole at the top of the zone. It is why most pitchers when they have success minus this year against Yelich is when they are pitching lower in the zone. Yelich can still hit the lower zone pitches but where his power comes from is up in the zone.

 

There are still players in MLB with a level swing and they have been doing rather well as the pitchers have come up in the zone to combat the uppercut swings. It is why you see less sinker ball pitchers now as the uppercut swings allow them to get under the ball and put them in the air.

[owbc]

All you need to know about contact hitting is that Eric Sogard was literally the best contact hitter in MLB in 2020. I'm not making that up, he lead the league in in-zone contact percentage and was #2 in whiff %. Of course it's impossible to achieve both high exit velocity and high contact percentage (except for guys like Mookie Betts), hence the current dilemma.

 

BTW Keston Hiura was bottom-5 in both of those categories, but he still managed to put up a .700 OPS.

[SomewhereInTime]

All you need to know about contact hitting is that Eric Sogard was literally the best contact hitter in MLB in 2020. I'm not making that up, he lead the league in in-zone contact percentage and was #2 in whiff %. Of course it's impossible to achieve both high exit velocity and high contact percentage (except for guys like Mookie Betts), hence the current dilemma.

 

BTW Keston Hiura was bottom-5 in both of those categories, but he still managed to put up a .700 OPS.

 

I'm not making a point here or anything but I find it kind of hilarious that Sogard finished 8th on the team in WPA and Hiura second to last. I mean that is absolutely remarkable to have a .560 OPS and a total of 10 RBI on the season and have a positive WPA.

[Eye Black]

I am bumping this thread for a couple of reasons:

 

1) The ball is reportedly going to be deadened this season and I’m curious to see if it significantly limits positive offensive outcomes even further.

 

2) The numbers listed by sveumrules are league average, but AmFam Field in recent years has played below league average in all non-home run base hit categories (singles, doubles, triples). It’s obviously an above average park for home runs, but what happens if the deadened baseball causes a notable reduction in home runs? Could we be in for low scoring games at AmFam Field all summer?

[Oxy]

I agree with everything said here. The problem is that R/G or R/inning hasn't changed much, despite the aesthetic changes. Pitching has gotten MUCH MUCH better in the last 30 years, and analytics has kept up with this change by adding more power/OBP to EVERY position on the field (at the expense of contact/AVG/entertainment).

 

Not sure what the answer is.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm going to guess that the deadened ball isn't going to lead to drastically reduced homeruns but will drastically reduce all other hits. It's going to take an even more perfect pitch to hit it hard now and I think the players are going to swing less because of that. Walks will probably go up too. I don't think strikeouts will change much. Mistake pitches will still be hammered for homeruns but guys are going to be swinging even less at pitches around the edges because they won't be able to hit those pitches as hard as before. It's almost like players going from a metal bat to wood. With either bat you can hit it hard if you square it up but with a wood bat you need to shrink your strike zone and be more selective because the end and barrel are not as forgiving as with a metal bat.

[sveumrules]

Will be interesting to see how the different ball plays out for sure. Crazy to think that 2014 was only seven years ago & that the 2.3 HR% that season was down around late 80s/early 90s pre-expansion, pre-widespread juicing levels while the 4.07 R/G in 2014 was thee lowest its been in the last 35 plus years.

 

Also kind of telling that despite record high 3.7 & 3.5 HR% the last two seasons the corresponding R/G marks of 4.83 & 4.65 were only 6th & 16th in the 35 year sample.

 

Halfway between the 4.65 R/G in 2020 & the low water mark of 4.07 R/G in 2014 would be 4.36 R/G. If 2021 run scoring comes in under that midway point it would make it a bottom ten offensive season over the last 35 years.

 

Considering how HR reliant run scoring has become, I think the answer to Eye Black's question is "definitely maybe".