What is your 2020-2021 offseason plan for the Brewers?

[fleehaw]

McCalvy answered a question from his ‘inbox’ which asked if he’d take the over or under on a $90m payroll. He said he’d take the under based on Stearns’ comments. Nothing close to definitive, but that benchmark isn’t pretty.

[DR28]

I'm dead set on signing La Stella, acquiring Kirilloff+ from Minnesota for Hader and pickup option on Gyorko.

 

That's all we need!

[wntrtxn21]

I'm dead set on signing La Stella, acquiring Kirilloff+ from Minnesota for Hader and pickup option on Gyorko.

 

That's all we need!

 

I think you're spot on with LaStella if they let Braun go. He would be a big addition to the lineup. Letting Claudio, Sogard, Pina, Gamel go should make the money work. Kirilloff+ for Hader would work depend because Kirilloff is impressive and may be ready in 2021. Gyorko could hold down 1B until Kirilloff gets to the show. I guess it would depend on the + for Stearns to pull the trigger.

[3and2Fastball]

My offseason plan would be to try to convince Mark to sell the team to a different Billionaire who would prioritize winning and be willing to increase payroll to $160 million or so, recognizing that he can afford to spend $30 million of his billions of dollars out of his own pocket.

 

Then I’d sign Trevor Bauer to a 1 year, $38 million contract, sign Justin Turner to 4 years $90 million, fire Haines, let Counsell know he’s on thin ice, and keep Sedar on staff but replace him as the 3rd Base coach. I’d invest a lot more money into signing Dominican Republic players, and would decline the option on Ryan Braun. I would do everything I could to try to sign Barry Bonds as the new hitting coach. If that cannot be done I’d at least try to get him to come in and coach during Spring Training. I’d get rid of Sogard.

[billymac]

My offseason plan would be to try to convince Mark to sell the team to a different Billionaire who would prioritize winning and be willing to increase payroll to $160 million or so, recognizing that he can afford to spend $30 million of his billions of dollars out of his own pocket.

 

Then I’d sign Trevor Bauer to a 1 year, $38 million contract, sign Justin Turner to 4 years $90 million, fire Haines, let Counsell know he’s on thin ice, and keep Sedar on staff but replace him as the 3rd Base coach. I’d invest a lot more money into signing Dominican Republic players, and would decline the option on Ryan Braun. I would do everything I could to try to sign Barry Bonds as the new hitting coach. If that cannot be done I’d at least try to get him to come in and coach during Spring Training. I’d get rid of Sogard.

 

 

I would love this offseason!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My offseason plan would be to try to convince Mark to sell the team to a different Billionaire who would prioritize winning and be willing to increase payroll to $160 million or so, recognizing that he can afford to spend $30 million of his billions of dollars out of his own pocket.

 

Then I’d sign Trevor Bauer to a 1 year, $38 million contract, sign Justin Turner to 4 years $90 million, fire Haines, let Counsell know he’s on thin ice, and keep Sedar on staff but replace him as the 3rd Base coach. I’d invest a lot more money into signing Dominican Republic players, and would decline the option on Ryan Braun. I would do everything I could to try to sign Barry Bonds as the new hitting coach. If that cannot be done I’d at least try to get him to come in and coach during Spring Training. I’d get rid of Sogard.

 

That is certainly a lot to unpack. But I am pretty confident in saying that if you are expecting any of this to happen, you're going to be disappointed. Well, there's probably a strong possibility that the Brewers decline Braun's and Sogard's options, but that's it.

[3and2Fastball]

I’m not expecting any of it to happen, it’s just my plan (!).

 

I do think in a normal year there’d be a chance for the Brewers to be a player in signing Bauer to a 1 year deal. This hasn’t been a normal year though. I expect Mark to cut payroll.

[DR28]

I wouldnt mind Mitch Moreland as our 2021 1B, if his option isnt picked up that is.

 

And Asdrubal Cabrera as our 3B.

 

Moreland/Gyorko

Hiura

Urias

Cabrera

 

Yep, I like that!

 

Then adding Alex Wood or Jake Odorizzi to rotation

 

Woody

Burnes

Wood or Odorizzi

Houser

Lindblom

 

Yep, like that as well!

 

Keep Hader and see what happens!

[Jopal78]

I wouldnt mind Mitch Moreland as our 2021 1B, if his option isnt picked up that is.

 

And Asdrubal Cabrera as our 3B.

 

Moreland/Gyorko

Hiura

Urias

Cabrera

 

Yep, I like that!

 

Then adding Alex Wood or Jake Odorizzi to rotation

 

Woody

Burnes

Wood or Odorizzi

Houser

Lindblom

 

Yep, like that as well!

 

Keep Hader and see what happens!

 

Conservatively you are advocating for adding 20+ million in payroll in 2021 which just isn't going to happen.

 

Odorizzi has averaged 13 million the last two seasons with Minnesota.

Alex Wood made 4 million last year

Cabrera made 2.5 million last year

Moreland made 3 million last year

 

Maybe those players take cuts from last year, but isn't going to be by much. The Players will be the first ones to howl collusion if owners are suddenly asking them to take fifty cents on the dollar.

[3and2Fastball]

This offseason may lead to the players association actually accepting and even pushing for a salary cap and a minimum salary cap

 

Most teams are going to be very hesitant to spend in free agency. The difference between the big market teams and everybody else will be bigger than ever. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers can’t sign everybody. Most players will be getting 50 cents on the dollar.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised at all too see the Brewers make zero significant signings. Any improvement on the Major League roster will need to come from trades.

[DR28]

I wouldnt mind Mitch Moreland as our 2021 1B, if his option isnt picked up that is.

 

And Asdrubal Cabrera as our 3B.

 

Moreland/Gyorko

Hiura

Urias

Cabrera

 

Yep, I like that!

 

Then adding Alex Wood or Jake Odorizzi to rotation

 

Woody

Burnes

Wood or Odorizzi

Houser

Lindblom

 

Yep, like that as well!

 

Keep Hader and see what happens!

 

Conservatively you are advocating for adding 20+ million in payroll in 2021 which just isn't going to happen.

 

Odorizzi has averaged 13 million the last two seasons with Minnesota.

Alex Wood made 4 million last year

Cabrera made 2.5 million last year

Moreland made 3 million last year

 

Maybe those players take cuts from last year, but isn't going to be by much. The Players will be the first ones to howl collusion if owners are suddenly asking them to take fifty cents on the dollar.

 

Ok forget Odorizzi and Minor... Just add the 2 bats, that we should be able to afford.

[TURBO]

Adding Moreland and Cabrera are not moves that will suddenly make our offense championship caliber.

 

Adds like those are really no different than what we tried to do last year, and failed miserably.

 

We need to aquire, somehow, some way, a legit 1B and / or 3B. I think Gyrko can get us by at one of those 2 positions, but we MUST add a real live bat at the position that Gyrko doesn't hold down.

 

Why waste more money on gritty vets who just aren't needle movers.

 

I don't know how we can possibly offer up a trade package for a legit 1B / 3B either unless Hader is involved.

[Jopal78]

Adding Moreland and Cabrera are not moves that will suddenly make our offense championship caliber.

 

Adds like those are really no different than what we tried to do last year, and failed miserably.

 

We need to aquire, somehow, some way, a legit 1B and / or 3B. I think Gyrko can get us by at one of those 2 positions, but we MUST add a real live bat at the position that Gyrko doesn't hold down.

 

Why waste more money on gritty vets who just aren't needle movers.

 

I don't know how we can possibly offer up a trade package for a legit 1B / 3B either unless Hader is involved.

 

Starting pitching?

 

They could get a quality hitter if they offered up Peralta and Suter, Obviously their two best trade chips are Woodruff and Burnes but there isn't a realistic path to compete without those two.

[TURBO]

I think we could absorb a Hader loss with the rest of the bullpen. Yes, it would suck to lose him, but we have the arms to be fine without him imo.

 

We can not, and will not compete if we lose Burnes or Woodruff.

 

They will not be moved.

[DR28]

Adding Moreland and Cabrera are not moves that will suddenly make our offense championship caliber.

 

Adds like those are really no different than what we tried to do last year, and failed miserably.

 

We need to aquire, somehow, some way, a legit 1B and / or 3B. I think Gyrko can get us by at one of those 2 positions, but we MUST add a real live bat at the position that Gyrko doesn't hold down.

 

Why waste more money on gritty vets who just aren't needle movers.

 

I don't know how we can possibly offer up a trade package for a legit 1B / 3B either unless Hader is involved.

 

I see Moreland and Cabrera as better players than Smoak, Vogelbach, Gyorko, Sogard... But that's just IMO.

 

Will be interesting to see what we do.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

Given today's option declines, particularly Gyrko's, I think you see Hader traded for some young controllable corner IF (here's hoping for Kiriloff) and then we go bargain shopping for arms this offseason.

[JosephC]

I have to admit my number one goal would be to trade Yelich.

 

I've been looking through the mega-deal type contacts given out in the post-steroid era, and basically all of them have been a bust. I like the Mike Trout deal for the Angels, but as good as Yelich is, he is not Mike Trout.

 

The deal that really kills me is the Nolan Arenado deal. Lots of the experts thought this was fairly safe for the Rockies. Even a slight offensive dip could probably be masked by the home park (to some extent). Even if his offense does fall off, he's a plus-plus guy with the glove so at least you'd probably get superior defense out of him. This one has taken all of two years before people are looking at this contract as a terrible, albatross type contract for the Rockies.

 

I also have to wonder if Stearns gave out this deal thinking that the payroll would be 120+ million for the next few years...even in a virus free world Attanasio chopped the payroll back to ~100 million and claimed the club was at an operating loss in 2019 which is a pretty decent sign that the payroll is not going to be running in the 130-140 million region anytime in the near future.

 

And then there is always Yelich's 2020 season. Personally, I think the offensive aspect was somewhat fluke-ish and I am expecting a big bounceback next year. But, what if that knee injury at the end of 2019 was a factor and will remain a factor?

 

I've already seen a bunch of mentions already on this board that Yelich should be moved to 1B ASAP, so the defensive aspect of his game has already slipped and is an early, significant red flag.

 

Again, I'm expecting a big bounce back year with the bat in 2021. If Yelich would be dealt I think the GM would look like a complete idiot during the first couple of seasons but that would soon swing, and by the end of the deal, people will end up saying that the Brewers probably traded him a couple years to early but they probably still did the right thing by moving him when they did because the last four years of the deal were awful, completely awful. Basically an .820 OPS guy that contributed minus-minus defense and was eating up 26 million dollars for a team that was running a payroll of 112 million dollars.

 

How much do I want to deal Yelich:

"How about you give me a couple spare parts for Yelich...what's that you say....you want Hader too....DONE DEAL!"

 

Hopefully there are plenty of big markets that Yelich would love to play in because the no-trade part of that deal could be a real kick in the nuts for the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

Sign as many reclamations again a possible

[Madhawk23]

I have to admit my number one goal would be to trade Yelich.

 

I've been looking through the mega-deal type contacts given out in the post-steroid era, and basically all of them have been a bust. I like the Mike Trout deal for the Angels, but as good as Yelich is, he is not Mike Trout.

 

The deal that really kills me is the Nolan Arenado deal. Lots of the experts thought this was fairly safe for the Rockies. Even a slight offensive dip could probably be masked by the home park (to some extent). Even if his offense does fall off, he's a plus-plus guy with the glove so at least you'd probably get superior defense out of him. This one has taken all of two years before people are looking at this contract as a terrible, albatross type contract for the Rockies.

 

I also have to wonder if Stearns gave out this deal thinking that the payroll would be 120+ million for the next few years...even in a virus free world Attanasio chopped the payroll back to ~100 million and claimed the club was at an operating loss in 2019 which is a pretty decent sign that the payroll is not going to be running in the 130-140 million region anytime in the near future.

 

And then there is always Yelich's 2020 season. Personally, I think the offensive aspect was somewhat fluke-ish and I am expecting a big bounceback next year. But, what if that knee injury at the end of 2019 was a factor and will remain a factor?

 

I've already seen a bunch of mentions already on this board that Yelich should be moved to 1B ASAP, so the defensive aspect of his game has already slipped and is an early, significant red flag.

 

Again, I'm expecting a big bounce back year with the bat in 2021. If Yelich would be dealt I think the GM would look like a complete idiot during the first couple of seasons but that would soon swing, and by the end of the deal, people will end up saying that the Brewers probably traded him a couple years to early but they probably still did the right thing by moving him when they did because the last four years of the deal were awful, completely awful. Basically an .820 OPS guy that contributed minus-minus defense and was eating up 26 million dollars for a team that was running a payroll of 112 million dollars.

 

How much do I want to deal Yelich:

"How about you give me a couple spare parts for Yelich...what's that you say....you want Hader too....DONE DEAL!"

 

Hopefully there are plenty of big markets that Yelich would love to play in because the no-trade part of that deal could be a real kick in the nuts for the Brewers.

 

Am I reading this correctly? You want to trade Yelich and Hader for a couple of spare parts? My God - thankfully you aren't the Brewers GM!

[Dean Machine]

I have to admit my number one goal would be to trade Yelich.

 

I've been looking through the mega-deal type contacts given out in the post-steroid era, and basically all of them have been a bust. I like the Mike Trout deal for the Angels, but as good as Yelich is, he is not Mike Trout.

 

The deal that really kills me is the Nolan Arenado deal. Lots of the experts thought this was fairly safe for the Rockies. Even a slight offensive dip could probably be masked by the home park (to some extent). Even if his offense does fall off, he's a plus-plus guy with the glove so at least you'd probably get superior defense out of him. This one has taken all of two years before people are looking at this contract as a terrible, albatross type contract for the Rockies.

 

I also have to wonder if Stearns gave out this deal thinking that the payroll would be 120+ million for the next few years...even in a virus free world Attanasio chopped the payroll back to ~100 million and claimed the club was at an operating loss in 2019 which is a pretty decent sign that the payroll is not going to be running in the 130-140 million region anytime in the near future.

 

And then there is always Yelich's 2020 season. Personally, I think the offensive aspect was somewhat fluke-ish and I am expecting a big bounceback next year. But, what if that knee injury at the end of 2019 was a factor and will remain a factor?

 

I've already seen a bunch of mentions already on this board that Yelich should be moved to 1B ASAP, so the defensive aspect of his game has already slipped and is an early, significant red flag.

 

Again, I'm expecting a big bounce back year with the bat in 2021. If Yelich would be dealt I think the GM would look like a complete idiot during the first couple of seasons but that would soon swing, and by the end of the deal, people will end up saying that the Brewers probably traded him a couple years to early but they probably still did the right thing by moving him when they did because the last four years of the deal were awful, completely awful. Basically an .820 OPS guy that contributed minus-minus defense and was eating up 26 million dollars for a team that was running a payroll of 112 million dollars.

 

How much do I want to deal Yelich:

"How about you give me a couple spare parts for Yelich...what's that you say....you want Hader too....DONE DEAL!"

 

Hopefully there are plenty of big markets that Yelich would love to play in because the no-trade part of that deal could be a real kick in the nuts for the Brewers.

 

Am I reading this correctly? You want to trade Yelich and Hader for a couple of spare parts? My God - thankfully you aren't the Brewers GM!

 

I don't know about the Hader part but I also am an advocate about getting rid of Yelich to anyone who will take the contract regardless of what they give us. That contract will sink this team. Eventually we are going to be paying $10 million a year so he can play on another team.

[sveumrules]

I've been looking through the mega-deal type contacts given out in the post-steroid era, and basically all of them have been a bust. I like the Mike Trout deal for the Angels, but as good as Yelich is, he is not Mike Trout.

 

Sure, Yelich is not Trout & their contracts reflect that, Trout has 10/354 left compared to only 9/202 for Yelich.

 

In 2022, when Yelich's deal kicks in, his 26 million salary is currently tied for 16th in MLB. With two more offseasons to go until then, Yelich likely won't even be a top 20 paid player in MLB at that point.

[Lathund]

Hard disagree on trading Yelich just to get rid of the contract. As far as contracts for that caliber of player go it's not a bad one at all. From 22-28 (Age 30-36 seasons) he'll be paid $22m per year, with an additional $4m annually deferred between 2031-2042. $22m then is also less than $22m is now. I also don't see him as someone who will fall of a cliff and do nothing in the later half of that deal. There is a big difference between overpaying a 2 WAR type of guy and paying Albert Pujols or Jordan Zimmermann. If someone offers a genuinely good offer, listen to it. But to trade him for peanuts, or even throw in Josh Hader? Absolutely not. Whatever one may think about big contract extensions or free agent deals for top players, it's still the case that Yelich's contract situation meant a discount to what he'd cost in free agency, and any free agents signed with that money won't come at a discount.

 

As for offseason plan, based on what we're seeing with declined options and such, I think the best way forward is to focus on retaining and acquiring quality players at positions of need, and relying on cheaper pickups and young guys to cover the backup roles and lesser needs. So that means non-tendering pretty much everyone except Woodruff, Hader and one of Piña/Narvaez. And even then, the main purpose of tendering Hader would be for trading him.

 

With expected cutz to the payroll, I think that kind of aggressive maneuvering is the only way to get the money needed to adress the corner infield needs. Get the two best bats you can for 1B and 3B with the money available; perhaps that's Tommy La Stella and Carlos Santana, perhaps it's someone else. If anything is left, get a veteran starter, a solid reliever, and for the rest look for the minimum salary (or close to it) veterans and non-roster invite types and try to win that lottery. Try to exploit 40-man roster crunches to get a Jesus Aguilar-type too.

 

Anyway, the key point of my offseason plan would basically be that because the financial constraints will force the Brewers to be selective, the focus would be to address the biggest needs (1B and 3B) with the money that can be spent, and hope that the expected positive regression of Narvaez, Yelich, Hiura, Garcia actually happens. Because basically if it does not, then there are no realistic moves that can salvage the situation anyway, so might as well go for the moves that makes sense if it does. And signing a Santana on a 1-year deal or La Stella for 2 years or w/e aren't harmful in the long run.

 

There are other ways to free up the money besides non-tenders, but i'm not a fan of a Yelich trade, and as far as Cain/Garcia go I expect them to be good players in 2021 and I also don't think there'd be much of a return for them. And it would leave two additional spots of great need to be filled with what would still be limited resources.

[reillymcshane]

Here's my plan, assuming we don't have the DH. Free agent numbers are from MLB Trade Rumor predictions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

I've aiming for a budget of no more than $100M. Perhaps that's too much, but we shall see. I've got several guys who need to rebound (Garcia, Narvaez), and a few who need to step up (Lauer, Urias, etc.). I've got some mid-level free agents, but no big splashes.

 

C - Narvaez ® - He's hit too well in his career, so let's plan on a rebound

C - Pina/Nottingham ® - If Manny is healthy, great. If not, go with Nottingham.

1B - Hiura ® - Moving him to 1B - let him focus on reaching his potential as a bat.

2B - Kolten Wong (L) (FA - 2-year/$16M) - Excellent defense, good OBP

SS - Urias - Huge risk giving him job, but we have to take some chances

3B - La Stella (L) - Consistent hitter. He probably won't hit 20 HR, but maybe get you 15 or so and hit .280 with adequate defense. Sounds good to me.

LF - Yelich (L)

CF - Cain ®

RF - Garcia ® - Bank on a rebound

OF - Taylor ®

OF - Kevin Pillar ® (FA, 1-year $3M) - Looking for a guy who can play all three positions adequately and isn't awful with the bat. Might want a lefty, doesn't have to be Pillar, but you get the idea.

INF - Gyorko ® - (FA, 1-year $2.5M) - Someone like this. Doesn't have to be Gyorko - but someone who can handle the corners.

INF - I'm probably all set to cut the Arcia cord, but I'd take him back if we can't find someone better.

 

SP - Houser (had some nice moments so let's give another try), Lindblom, Woodruff, Burnes, Robbie Ray (FA - 1-year $6M), Lauer

RP - Hader, Peralta, Yardley, Suter, Williams, Rasmussen, Free agent signing, rookie

 

Salaries

 

MLB trade rumors has arby numbers. They provide three scenarios, which I've rounded to reach my number. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2021.html

 

Numbers are rounded to nearest 100k

 

Narvaez - 2.9M

Nottingham - .6

Hiura - .6

Wong - 8.0M

Urias - .6

La Stella - 6.0

Yelich - 14.0

Cain - 17.0

Garcia - 10.5

Taylor - .6

Pillar - 3.0

Gyorko - 2.5

INF backup - 2.5 (slotting in a figure - could change)

 

Houser - .6

Lindblom - 3.0

Burnes - .6

Woodruff - 3.0

Lauer - .6

Ray - 6.0

 

Yardley - .6

Peralta - 1.2

Suter - 1.6

Williams - .6

Rasmussen - .6

Hader - 5.5

FA - 5.0 (there are a lot of quality veteran FA relievers. Figure grab one or two. Could go a little higher if needed.)

Rookie - .6 (give one of the young kids a chance - who, that's a good guess. Could always go with a low level FA signing for roughly twice this.

 

TOTAL: $96.8M

 

The number would be about $1.5M higher if you kept Pina over Nottingham.

[brewerfan82]

SS - Lauer - Huge risk giving him job, but we have to take some chances

That would be a HUGE risk, but I like thinking outside the box!

 

But seriously, that would be a pretty solid offseason. I think I'd prefer giving Hiura one more year at second and picking up a legit offensive threat at 1B rather than getting Wong and moving Keston to first, but Wong/1B FA, La Stella, Gyorko and Pillar for the bench, Ray, and a $5M RP (which could be a pretty darn good arm this offseason) would be about as good as you could reasonably expect I think.

[reillymcshane]

SS - Lauer - Huge risk giving him job, but we have to take some chances

That would be a HUGE risk, but I like thinking outside the box!

 

Well that's a brain fart. Fixed it