What is your 2020-2021 offseason plan for the Brewers?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think Stearns is facing a nearly impossible job. We are probably going to lower payroll and free agency doesn't offer much. I am concerned that we will make a desperation Hader trade where we look to fill needs instead of taking the best return regardless of position.

 

If Stearns was going to desperately offload Hader, wouldn't last offseason been the time to do it? Certainly not all of Stearns' moves have been stellar, but I don't think he's had one yet (other than arguably the Schoop deal) that comes anywhere close to a desperation move.

[Luke99]

FA Signings:

Rusney Castillo (minor-league contract) - I think he can come in and be a solid 4/5 OF. Been stuck in AAA purgatory due to Boston Lux tax implications

Sandy Leon (Minor-league contract) - ST mentor for our young catching corps, and AAA depth to tutor Feliciano and Henry

Robbie Erlin (minor-league contract) - another potential lefty out of the BP

Matt Shoemaker (minor league contract)

Anthony DeScalfani - 1 year 4 million

Ha_Seong Kim - 5 years 65 Million

Kirby Yates - 1 year 4 million

 

Trades:

Josh Hader, Orlando Arcia, Payton Henry to Twins for Trever Larnach, Brent Rooker, Ryan Jeffers, Devin Smeltzer, and Willians Astudillo

Narvaez to NY Mets for Jaylan Palmer (3rd base flier) and Joander Suarez (RHP) 2 lotto tickets

Corey Ray to Baltimore for Josue Cruz (1B) and Brenan Hanifee (RHP) Time to move on from Ray and clear up 40 man space. Baltimore gives us 2 lotto tickets for the 1st round pedigree

 

 

Arbitration Offered:

Brandon Woodruff (5m)

Corey Knebel (6m)

Eric Lauer (2m)

 

Non-Tenders:

Alex Claudio

Manny Pina

Ryon Healy

 

Options Picked Up:

Jedd Gyorko

 

Options Declined:

Ryan Braun (4m buyout)

Eric Sogard (500k buyout)

Ben Gamel

 

 

Position Players:

C: Jeffers/Nottingham/Astidullo

1B: Rooker/Gyorko/Vogelbach

2B: Hiura/Urias

SS: Kim/Urias

3B: Urias/Gyorko/Astidullo

LF: Yelich/Larnach (or Castillo if Larnach is not ready)

CF:Cain/Taylor

RF: Garcia/Larnach

DH: Hiura/Larnach/Vogelbach (later in the year or if Hiura comes back and is starting

 

 

Starting Pitching:

Woodruff/Burnes/Houser/Lauer/Lindblom/DeScalfani/ (suter?)

 

 

Relief Pitching:

Williams/Knebel/Yates/Peralta/Suter/Black/Yardley/Topa (plenty of depth at AA with Wahl, Rasmussen, Smeltzer, etc)

 

If I missed someone or something let me know. Just my wild take on thins.

[wntrtxn21]

FA Signings:

Rusney Castillo (minor-league contract) - I think he can come in and be a solid 4/5 OF. Been stuck in AAA purgatory due to Boston Lux tax implications

Sandy Leon (Minor-league contract) - ST mentor for our young catching corps, and AAA depth to tutor Feliciano and Henry

Robbie Erlin (minor-league contract) - another potential lefty out of the BP

Matt Shoemaker (minor league contract)

Anthony DeScalfani - 1 year 4 million

Ha_Seong Kim - 5 years 65 Million

Kirby Yates - 1 year 4 million

 

Trades:

Josh Hader, Orlando Arcia, Payton Henry to Twins for Trever Larnach, Brent Rooker, Ryan Jeffers, Devin Smeltzer, and Willians Astudillo

Narvaez to NY Mets for Jaylan Palmer (3rd base flier) and Joander Suarez (RHP) 2 lotto tickets

Corey Ray to Baltimore for Josue Cruz (1B) and Brenan Hanifee (RHP) Time to move on from Ray and clear up 40 man space. Baltimore gives us 2 lotto tickets for the 1st round pedigree

 

 

Arbitration Offered:

Brandon Woodruff (5m)

Corey Knebel (6m)

Eric Lauer (2m)

 

Non-Tenders:

Alex Claudio

Manny Pina

Ryon Healy

 

Options Picked Up:

Jedd Gyorko

 

Options Declined:

Ryan Braun (4m buyout)

Eric Sogard (500k buyout)

Ben Gamel

 

 

Position Players:

C: Jeffers/Nottingham/Astidullo

1B: Rooker/Gyorko/Vogelbach

2B: Hiura/Urias

SS: Kim/Urias

3B: Urias/Gyorko/Astidullo

LF: Yelich/Larnach (or Castillo if Larnach is not ready)

CF:Cain/Taylor

RF: Garcia/Larnach

DH: Hiura/Larnach/Vogelbach (later in the year or if Hiura comes back and is starting

 

 

Starting Pitching:

Woodruff/Burnes/Houser/Lauer/Lindblom/DeScalfani/ (suter?)

 

 

Relief Pitching:

Williams/Knebel/Yates/Peralta/Suter/Black/Yardley/Topa (plenty of depth at AA with Wahl, Rasmussen, Smeltzer, etc)

 

If I missed someone or something let me know. Just my wild take on thins.

 

First you are looking at adding payroll when Stearns all but stated he will reduce payroll. 3B is still a monstrous hole and all of the AA players including Kim are questionable at best.

[holy rollers]

Resign Bruan $3 million ($7 million total with $4 million buyout)

Pick up option on Gyorko ($4.5 million)

Trade Hader for best you deal get between Lux (Dodgers) or Adujar (Yankees)

Sign Kevin Pillar 2 years $9 million

Decline Sogard option

Release Gamel

Sign LaStella 3 yrs 10 million

Trade Arcia for bullpen or minor leaguers

Trade or release Pina

Trade or release Claudio

 

C: Narvaez ($3.2 million)

1B: Vogelbach (600K)

2B: Hiura ($600k)

3B: Lux or Adujar ($580k)

SS: Urias ($580K)

LF: Yelich ($14 mil)

CF: Cain ($17 mil)

RF: Garcia ($10.5 mil)

 

Bench:

Gyorko ($4.5 mil)

La Stella ($3.3)

Nottingham $(580K)

Braun ($3million + 4 million buyout = 7 million total)

Pillar($4.5 mil)

 

SP: Woodruff ($5mil)

SP: Burnes ($580)

SP: Peralta ($1 mil)

SP: Lindblom ($3 mil)

SP: Lauer ($580K)/Suter/Houser

 

RP: Rasmussen ($580)

RP: Houser ($580)

RP: Topa/Black/Podermo/Bickford ($580)

RP: Suter ($1.5mil)

RP: Yardley ($580)

RP: Knebel ($5.5 mil)

RP: Williams ($580)

 

Payroll $82.42 million ($85 counting the Braun buyout)

 

This is based of estimates of arbitration and minimum pre-arbitration salary levels. Not sure if I got all the salaries right but was a guesstimate.

 

-I sign Braun to a one year swan song deal. Since you are already paying him $4 mil to go away, may as well let him see the fans, sell jerseys, and DH/backup outfielder for $3mil.

-I trade Hader for 3b help, taking the best deal of Lux of Adujar if you can get them. The Hader trade is key to improving the team and I like Andujar and Lux for their cost and potential.

-I sign LaStella mostly to improve contact rate and reduce strikeouts as the new Sodar roll.

-I then trade Arcia for low level minor leaguers with high ceilings. If you cant sign LaStella then you probably keep Arcia as a backup.

-I sign Kevin Pillar to fill the Gamel role over two years at $4.5 per

 

With the payroll this low, it does allow room for another signing. If so, then I target Garrett Richards for 2 years $15million. All in we would have a payroll around $90 million.

 

Overall I think we add in a couple of guys who have made better contact in their careers. We need bounce back years from Voglebach, Narveson, Yelich and Garcia. We get Cain back. We look for growth from Hiura and Urias and hopefully a new regular contributor in Adujar or Lux. The pen is then a bunch of young power arms with a few options to move from rotation to pen with injuries. And if we go to $90 million we improve our starting rotation and bullpen depth with a Richards signing.

[Devinep]

La Stella is getting way more than 3/10, and NOBODY equates lux/Andujar

[Soupbone]

I would agree La Stella is getting more than 3/10. But there are other guys to be had for that money to fill the role. Andujar is a project, there would have to be some high level prospects in that deal. But overall this deal seems to improve the team without costing a fortune. If you take the Pillar and Richards money maybe you can find a regular 3B guy?

[wntrtxn21]

I would agree La Stella is getting more than 3/10. But there are other guys to be had for that money to fill the role. Andujar is a project, there would have to be some high level prospects in that deal. But overall this deal seems to improve the team without costing a fortune. If you take the Pillar and Richards money maybe you can find a regular 3B guy?

 

Besides the LaStella money being way off, why would you sign Pillar. Gamel is a career .261/.331 hitter. Pillar .262/.299 and would cost $1.5M more. You aren't getting Lux from LA. They want to see him in a full season. Andujar now days, is just a throw-in with any deal. 1B and 3B are still black holes unless Gyorko is slated to fill 1B. What Richards money?

[brewcrewdue80]

Resign Bruan $3 million ($7 million total with $4 million buyout)

Pick up option on Gyorko ($4.5 million)

Trade Hader for best you deal get between Lux (Dodgers) or Adujar (Yankees)

Sign Kevin Pillar 2 years $9 million

Decline Sogard option

Release Gamel

Sign LaStella 3 yrs 10 million

Trade Arcia for bullpen or minor leaguers

Trade or release Pina

Trade or release Claudio

 

C: Narvaez ($3.2 million)

1B: Vogelbach (600K)

2B: Hiura ($600k)

3B: Lux or Adujar ($580k)

SS: Urias ($580K)

LF: Yelich ($14 mil)

CF: Cain ($17 mil)

RF: Garcia ($10.5 mil)

 

Bench:

Gyorko ($4.5 mil)

La Stella ($3.3)

Nottingham $(580K)

Braun ($3million + 4 million buyout = 7 million total)

Pillar($4.5 mil)

 

SP: Woodruff ($5mil)

SP: Burnes ($580)

SP: Peralta ($1 mil)

SP: Lindblom ($3 mil)

SP: Lauer ($580K)/Suter/Houser

 

RP: Rasmussen ($580)

RP: Houser ($580)

RP: Topa/Black/Podermo/Bickford ($580)

RP: Suter ($1.5mil)

RP: Yardley ($580)

RP: Knebel ($5.5 mil)

RP: Williams ($580)

 

Payroll $82.42 million ($85 counting the Braun buyout)

 

This is based of estimates of arbitration and minimum pre-arbitration salary levels. Not sure if I got all the salaries right but was a guesstimate.

 

-I sign Braun to a one year swan song deal. Since you are already paying him $4 mil to go away, may as well let him see the fans, sell jerseys, and DH/backup outfielder for $3mil.

-I trade Hader for 3b help, taking the best deal of Lux of Adujar if you can get them. The Hader trade is key to improving the team and I like Andujar and Lux for their cost and potential.

-I sign LaStella mostly to improve contact rate and reduce strikeouts as the new Sodar roll.

-I then trade Arcia for low level minor leaguers with high ceilings. If you cant sign LaStella then you probably keep Arcia as a backup.

-I sign Kevin Pillar to fill the Gamel role over two years at $4.5 per

 

With the payroll this low, it does allow room for another signing. If so, then I target Garrett Richards for 2 years $15million. All in we would have a payroll around $90 million.

 

Overall I think we add in a couple of guys who have made better contact in their careers. We need bounce back years from Voglebach, Narveson, Yelich and Garcia. We get Cain back. We look for growth from Hiura and Urias and hopefully a new regular contributor in Adujar or Lux. The pen is then a bunch of young power arms with a few options to move from rotation to pen with injuries. And if we go to $90 million we improve our starting rotation and bullpen depth with a Richards signing.

 

Welcome to the Board. Well Done first post. A lot you delved in to, to digest.

 

I think MLB average salary is approaching 4mil, and you have to just look at what Sogard received in a poor FA period. Essentially 2/8.5mil. That said, there's just no way I see Braun being a 3mil signing. That 4mil was guaranteed to him a long time ago. It's not like Stearns coming to him and saying well we made a 7mil offer to Braun to return to the team. He's either gotta commit 11mil more when picking up the option, or start a new FA deal from $0 competing with the other 29Baseball teams. Gotta believe the offer will be more than 4mil. San Fran comes to mind as they have a fairly lot of money at their disposal and obviously Braun has always had the California teams on his options to be traded to.

 

Lux isn't going anywhere. Not for Hader that's for sure. The Dodgers have gone ultra conservative when it comes to their upper tier of top prospects. It's as if they figured out they have upper hand in the NL when it comes to money. And allowing your top prospects to make the team means you can spend much more of it on the premium players in the game. Mookie Betts being the most recent of such a player. Dodgers 4 highest paid players combine for a salary higher than the Brewers entire payroll in 2020. Lux is going to be a contributing factor on keeping that rolling.

 

Andujar is damaged goods. I'd trade Nottingham or Pina to the Yankees for him. They'll need a C

 

Someone mentioned above, Gamel or Pillar, may as well keep the cheaper of the two.

 

La Stella back to the Sogard comp, only La Stella has been a better player than Sogard for a lot longer period of time. 2/8.5 becomes something more like 2/12.5 as likely the starting point. So at 3 that's likely at 20 vs 10. And I'm still not sure if that isn't underselling him. He's a FA for the first time and with his age likely his only time to garnish something higher in pay. He doesn't need to prove it on a 1year deal, so I fully expect a 3year ask above 6mil per. Our signing to Avisail Garcia 2/20 or 3/30 has to be more of a comp because aside from 2 seasons Garcia was garbage.

 

Fully agree on Claudio and Sogard releases.

[Madhawk23]

I may have already mentioned this in another post, but after watching the Rays play this postseason - I'm starting to wonder if we shouldn't just try to pick up some guys this offseason that are good (but not great) offensive players, but are really good defenders. I look at their lineup, and there's really nobody that scares you that much - except maybe that Arozarena kid who is having the postseason of all postseasons. But, they've got two really good starters in Snell and Glasnow (with a few decent SP's behind them), and a really good bullpen.

 

On the pitching front, I'm not sure if we're that far behind the Rays, are we? With Woody and Burnes fronting our rotation and D Will and Hader on the back end (with some other young relief arms emerging), I'm starting to wonder if we just move Hiura to DH and then put our focus on finding some good defenders for 1B, 2B and 3B this winter? Guys that will at least be decent at the plate (not great), but are well above average defensively at those positions?

 

I'm sure I'm making this sound much easier than it is, but I continue to marvel at what the Rays do with one of the lowest payrolls in the game each year.

 

And, it looks like their model is going to get them another WS appearance (and maybe even a title?).

[MrTPlush]

Considering payroll constraints I will be pretty surprised if Knebel returns. It is possible, but seems like a real obvious place to cut a big chunk of the payroll off.

[sveumrules]

I may have already mentioned this in another post, but after watching the Rays play this postseason - I'm starting to wonder if we shouldn't just try to pick up some guys this offseason that are good (but not great) offensive players, but are really good defenders. I look at their lineup, and there's really nobody that scares you that much - except maybe that Arozarena kid who is having the postseason of all postseasons. But, they've got two really good starters in Snell and Glasnow (with a few decent SP's behind them), and a really good bullpen.

 

On the pitching front, I'm not sure if we're that far behind the Rays, are we? With Woody and Burnes fronting our rotation and D Will and Hader on the back end (with some other young relief arms emerging), I'm starting to wonder if we just move Hiura to DH and then put our focus on finding some good defenders for 1B, 2B and 3B this winter? Guys that will at least be decent at the plate (not great), but are well above average defensively at those positions?

 

I'm sure I'm making this sound much easier than it is, but I continue to marvel at what the Rays do with one of the lowest payrolls in the game each year.

 

And, it looks like their model is going to get them another WS appearance (and maybe even a title?).

 

Getting Cain back next year should help the defense.

 

Andrelton Simmons defensive metrics have slipped some, but as someone who might have to settle for a one year deal & is competent with the stick (97 wRC+, MLB low 8.4 K% from 2018-20), I could see Stearns & company having possible interest.

[JosephC]

I don't think 3 million for Braun is an unreasonable number. In 2018/2019 he was a 1.4 bWAR/fWAR player. Pro-rate 2020 to a full season and Braun was actually slightly on the negative side. Three year average is only 0.9 bWAR/fWAR. Doing the rule of thumb and subtracting 0.5 due to age, it would project Braun as a 0.4 WAR player for 2021.

 

It will be his age 37 season. He has a history of nagging injuries. It's a safe bet that 30 out of 30 MLB teams will view him as a negative defensive contributor. With the exception of 2019, Braun's OPS and OBP has steadily dropped from 2016 on. Just eyeballing the numbers, it does give the impression that 2019 could have been Braun's last hurrah. Looking at the whole picture, there are a whole lot of reasons to be bearish on Braun moving forward.

 

Agreed that it only takes one dumb team to overpay for a player, but in what I expect will be a market where owners will use every excuse not to spend money, I really don't see Braun getting much of a payday.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think 3 million for Braun is an unreasonable number. In 2018/2019 he was a 1.4 bWAR/fWAR player. Pro-rate 2020 to a full season and Braun was actually slightly on the negative side. Three year average is only 0.9 bWAR/fWAR. Doing the rule of thumb and subtracting 0.5 due to age, it would project Braun as a 0.4 WAR player for 2021.

 

It will be his age 37 season. He has a history of nagging injuries. It's a safe bet that 30 out of 30 MLB teams will view him as a negative defensive contributor. With the exception of 2019, Braun's OPS and OBP has steadily dropped from 2016 on. Just eyeballing the numbers, it does give the impression that 2019 could have been Braun's last hurrah. Looking at the whole picture, there are a whole lot of reasons to be bearish on Braun moving forward.

 

Agreed that it only takes one dumb team to overpay for a player, but in what I expect will be a market where owners will use every excuse not to spend money, I really don't see Braun getting much of a payday.

 

Typically when teams overpay for an aging vet, it is someone who is very popular across the whole league who they can market in an effort to put butts in seats and sell merchandise. Braun, given his baggage, isn't going to do that. I get the feeling he knows that, too. That's why I think that likely his two realistic options are to play for the Brewers at a substantially reduced salary, or retire.

[MrTPlush]

I am going out on a limb that not only does Braun probably not care heavily about playing next year, but he has zero interest doing so for a team that isn't the Brewers. In what would 100% be his last year (from the way he talked this year) why would he want to go learn a new clubhouse, something he has never done? I doubt he would have any interest with any potential drama moving teams either due to his history.

 

He is playing for the Brewers or retiring.

[Madhawk23]

I am going out on a limb that not only does Braun probably not care heavily about playing next year, but he has zero interest doing so for a team that isn't the Brewers. In what would 100% be his last year (from the way he talked this year) why would he want to go learn a new clubhouse, something he has never done? I doubt he would have any interest with any potential drama moving teams either due to his history.

 

He is playing for the Brewers or retiring.

 

I agree with this 100%. I just don't see any way that Braun suits up in a different uniform next year. The only fanbase in baseball that will show him the "love" that he deserves (and I know we could all argue what he does/doesn't deserve) in what would probably be his final season - would be the Brewers fans. He's either going to come back as a Brewer next year, or he's going to hang it up. I don't think there are any other realistic options.

[Jopal78]

I don't think 3 million for Braun is an unreasonable number. In 2018/2019 he was a 1.4 bWAR/fWAR player. Pro-rate 2020 to a full season and Braun was actually slightly on the negative side. Three year average is only 0.9 bWAR/fWAR. Doing the rule of thumb and subtracting 0.5 due to age, it would project Braun as a 0.4 WAR player for 2021.

 

It will be his age 37 season. He has a history of nagging injuries. It's a safe bet that 30 out of 30 MLB teams will view him as a negative defensive contributor. With the exception of 2019, Braun's OPS and OBP has steadily dropped from 2016 on. Just eyeballing the numbers, it does give the impression that 2019 could have been Braun's last hurrah. Looking at the whole picture, there are a whole lot of reasons to be bearish on Braun moving forward.

 

Agreed that it only takes one dumb team to overpay for a player, but in what I expect will be a market where owners will use every excuse not to spend money, I really don't see Braun getting much of a payday.

 

I hope Braun comes back in 2021. When healthy, he's still a great hitter. The average MLB salary in 2020 was 4.4 million. In fact, Sogard and Smoak were scheduled to make $5 million in 2020. It's just nonsense to suggest Braun would even consider a 3 million dollar contract offer (or even a 4 or 5 million dollar offer). He's already banked a ton of money in salary, he's still a productive hitter, there's just no reason to even consider a below average contract offer.

[holy rollers]

Agree. LaStella was low. Given his age, track record (that All Star appearance is classic hot first half nod), potentially depressed free agent spending, I'd go up to 3 years 16. Over that it feels too much for a 31 (32 by season start) year old career back up.

 

Pillar over Gamel is because of his better K%. Watching this team wiff all season has me overreacting to the need for people who put the ball in play. (I was so excited to be able to watch every game at home because of COVID - then I watched and was bored to tears) Will be so much more enjoyable to watch Pillar get thrown out by half a step at first rather than watching Gamel walk back to the dugout. Also, his ability to steal a base would be helpful to a team lacking speed. (especially if they keep the 2nd base extra inning proposal).

 

Also agree if its Andujar, you have to get more back than just a one for one. Though I do think his ceiling makes him a decent buy low target (only 25, less than 100 AB since he got hurt) Someone else threw out Bohm from the Phillies, that would also be great. Yeah Lux will be hard to get, but if the Dodgers want to save money, dangle Williams instead. The gist of it being if you move Hader I think we need to get back a young controllable corner infielder.

 

For Braun, the $3 million would really just be a chance for him to have a retirement tour. At his age, career earnings, injuries and family situation, if he plays next season I don't think its for the money. I think the desire for one last chance to play in front of the fans and end his career properly or to chase a championship would have a bigger draw than the money. I just don't see a championship caliber team with room for him so at that point his only/best option looks to be the Brewers.

 

These are all just what I would like to happen. What I think the Brewers actually do or are able to do is different.

[brewcrewdue80]

La Stella fwiw was behind the likes Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, and Javy Baez when talking playing 2b/3b. Then he is traded off the team and LA allows him to start and does nothing but carry over an 800OPS

For 2b/3b that seems like a good 3 year investment for a team that has money restrictions and needs 2b/3b help while being a playoff contender. Brewers? I could actually see it happen. Move Gyorko to 1b or play La Stella there, he had some starts there for LA this season. You can obviously consider a Hiura drop down to AAA if he's still bad with Ks to at least give that feel 2b isn't just yours til we finish our team control over you. Likewise with Urias and sent to minors on lack of impact.

 

Wouldn't be surprised the Cubs made a reunion signing with him.

[fleehaw]

Trades:

1. C Manny Pina & RHRP Corey Knebel to the Tigers for LHRP Daniel Norris.

The Tigers get a mentor for Rogers and a closer on an expiring contract to flip. The Brewers hopefully get Drew Pomeranz Jr. and a bit of salary relief.

 

2. LHRP Josh Hader & UTIL Jed Gyorko to the Dodgers for C Keibert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP David Price, 3B/UTIL Zach McKinstry, and LHRP Victor Gonzalez

The Red Sox are on the hook for about half of Price’s contract leaving 2yrs/$32M. The Dodgers get some salary relief, a huge bullet for their bullpen and a RH UTIL to offset Turner leaving (potentially) in free agency. The Brewers get a catcher of the near future, a pitching prospect a year or two away, an upgrade to the rotation, a potential answer at 3B, and a young bullpen arm.

 

Free Agency:

3. Sign Jake Lamb 1yr/$2M with team option $5M-6M ($0.5-$1.0M Buyout).

Lamb’s September with Oakland, albeit small sample size, is something that should get him a guaranteed contract. If he’s finally healthy, he could provide solid production against RHP.

4. I assume that Braun is coming back for a swan song. If he doesn’t, I’d be looking to add a guy like CJ Cron for around the same money sans buyout ($4-$5M).

 

26 Man Roster $99M

Narvaez $ 3.1

Nottingham$ 0.6

Braun $ 8.0 includes $4M buyout

Vogelbach $ 1.9

Hiura $ 0.6

Arcia $ 3.8

Urias $ 0.6

Lamb $ 2.0

Yelich $ 14.0

Cain $ 16.0

Garcia $ 10.5

Gamel $ 2.6

Taylor $ 0.6

 

Woodruff $ 4.5

Burnes $ 0.6

Price $ 16.0

Lindblom $ 3.5 Assumes 130 IP

Lauer $ 0.6

Suter $ 1.5

Gonzalez $ 0.6

Norris $ 3.4

Peralta $ 1.0

Yardley $ 0.6

Topa $ 0.6

Houser $ 0.6

Williams $ 0.6

 

Sogard Buyout $ 0.5

[wntrtxn21]

Trades:

1. C Manny Pina & RHRP Corey Knebel to the Tigers for LHRP Daniel Norris.

The Tigers get a mentor for Rogers and a closer on an expiring contract to flip. The Brewers hopefully get Drew Pomeranz Jr. and a bit of salary relief.

 

2. LHRP Josh Hader & UTIL Jed Gyorko to the Dodgers for C Keibert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP David Price, 3B/UTIL Zach McKinstry, and LHRP Victor Gonzalez

The Red Sox are on the hook for about half of Price’s contract leaving 2yrs/$32M. The Dodgers get some salary relief, a huge bullet for their bullpen and a RH UTIL to offset Turner leaving (potentially) in free agency. The Brewers get a catcher of the near future, a pitching prospect a year or two away, an upgrade to the rotation, a potential answer at 3B, and a young bullpen arm.

 

Free Agency:

3. Sign Jake Lamb 1yr/$2M with team option $5M-6M ($0.5-$1.0M Buyout).

Lamb’s September with Oakland, albeit small sample size, is something that should get him a guaranteed contract. If he’s finally healthy, he could provide solid production against RHP.

4. I assume that Braun is coming back for a swan song. If he doesn’t, I’d be looking to add a guy like CJ Cron for around the same money sans buyout ($4-$5M).

 

25 Man Roster $99M

Narvaez $ 3.1

Nottingham$ 0.6

Braun $ 8.0 includes $4M buyout

Vogelbach $ 1.9

Hiura $ 0.6

Arcia $ 3.8

Urias $ 0.6

Lamb $ 2.0

Yelich $ 14.0

Cain $ 16.0

Garcia $ 10.5

Gamel $ 2.6

Taylor $ 0.6

 

Woodruff $ 4.5

Burnes $ 0.6

Price $ 16.0

Lindblom $ 3.5 Assumes 130 IP

Lauer $ 0.6

Suter $ 1.5

Gonzalez $ 0.6

Norris $ 3.4

Peralta $ 1.0

Yardley $ 0.6

Topa $ 0.6

Houser $ 0.6

Williams $ 0.6

 

Sogard Buyout $ 0.5

 

You have Stearns adding payroll (26 man roster at $100M) when he said he will cut payroll. The Tigers certainly won't add payroll and let go of a very promising pitcher. Pina types can be had easily w/o making a trade. You've left CC again with a huge hole at 3B because Lamb is terrible (last 3 years: .222/.307 - .193/.323 - .193/.283) and no solutions at 1B. Lamb is far worse than Gyorko so you have actually made the offense worse.

[fleehaw]

 

You have Stearns adding payroll (26 man roster at $100M) when he said he will cut payroll. The Tigers certainly won't add payroll and let go of a very promising pitcher. Pina types can be had easily w/o making a trade. You've left CC again with a huge hole at 3B because Lamb is terrible (last 3 years: .222/.307 - .193/.323 - .193/.283) and no solutions at 1B. Lamb is far worse than Gyorko so you have actually made the offense worse.

 

The unadjusted 26-man payroll in 2020 appears to be $102.5M (from Cots), so it doesn't look like I added payroll. That being said, I thought I read McCalvy mention he'd be surprised if payroll was more than $90M. That's depressing.

 

I noticed that you haven't posted your plan in this thread; you just seem to poo poo the proposals that are made by others. I'd be sincerely interested in seeing what your plan would be for next year. Please post it.

[Jopal78]

Cots has their payroll commitments for 2021 at 54 million and MLBTR has their arbitration projections at a tick under 33 million (using highest projection), for a grand total of 87 million. If McCalvy is accurate about the 90 million dollar mark that gives them 3 million to spend on free agents.

 

In that case, I'd decline the club options on Sogard, Gamel, Pina. I'd non-tender: Gamel (2.1), Pina (2.3), Arcia (3.8), Claudio (2.3) and Peterson (900k).

 

With a grand total of 14.4 million dollars to sign free agents, there are not really any difference making hitters in the Brewers price point. I suppose I'd target Rick Porcello. Sure there's an unimpressive ERA in 2020 (5.64), but nice FIP (3.33), K:BB (3.6) k/9 (8.2) and HR/9 (0.8). Would slot in right behind Woodruff and Burnes. They definitely need a veteran innings eater presence in the rotation. Porcello has no significant injury history and averages around 6 innings per start for his career (351 starts). Finally, made 10 million in 2020 so the price is in an area where the Brewers can shop.

 

Unfortunately with a sub-100 million dollar payroll, they are probably looking at trades from their bullpen to bolster the lineup unless they want a bunch of band aids like Asdrubal Cabrera or NRI players like Derek Dietrich.

[PeaveyFury]

You have Stearns adding payroll (26 man roster at $100M) when he said he will cut payroll.

 

I certainly may have missed this, but did he actually say this on the record?

[wibadgers23]

The salary estimates are depressing. If a $90 million dollar payroll is true, Stearns will have to be pretty creative this offseason in remaking the offense. I would trade Hader for a young 1B or 3B and then take it from there. Maybe you can sign one guy to fill whatever position you didn't with the Hader trade.

[nate82]

You have Stearns adding payroll (26 man roster at $100M) when he said he will cut payroll.

 

I certainly may have missed this, but did he actually say this on the record?

 

I think people are reading into what Stearns said too much.

 

Here is the actual quote:

"You know, over the last two years we’ve run the two highest payrolls in the history of this organization. And I think it’s uncertain at this point, as we look forward, whether our payroll next year would be at that same level.”

 

I am not sure how that means they are cutting payroll as they are uncertain on what they are going to do at this time. A lot of this depends on how many fans are going to be able to attend. How many games are going to be played. There is a possibility next year could be another shortened season and it is possible that there are no fans at the games. A team like the Brewers needs to have fans in attendance for the team to be profitable.

 

We also don't know and the team probably knows a little bit more but the Brewers should be seeing an increase in revenue from a new TV contract. I am skeptical on the team getting a big payday as TV ratings for all sports have been dropping for a few years now. The majority of the money on TV is now on the streaming services. There has been a significant push from live TV to on demand TV in the past few years.

 

Cable subscriptions have also been dropping and for the younger generations they are becoming less and less popular while things like YouTube and Netflix are far more popular. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers don't see a significant rise in revenue with a new TV contract.

 

The concerns for revenue are real and payroll more than likely dips a bit but by how much I don't think anyone knows. I believe that includes the team as they don't know for certain what their revenue stream is going to look like. If it is just TV revenue and what the team gets from the league then I would expect nothing over $90m payroll wise. If there is a full season allowing for 30-40% of capacity then a $100m payroll would be around their maximum. If the capacity is less than 25% then I think you are looking at a $95m max payroll.

 

I don't believe the team knows what their revenue will be next year and thus the response by Stearns where he doesn't know what the payroll will be and it could be less.