How would you pitch Game 1?

[trwi7]

Suter is generally okay for 3 or 4 innings so I'd try that. Depending on how the game is going I'd empty out our scrub relievers if we're losing by a few runs. If not go with reliever matchups.

[shanedog19]

Dodgers have .100 lower OPS against lefties. I start Suter and hope he makes it 4-5 innings. I then bring in Peralta, who had success against the Dodgers in the 2018 NLDS. If we have a lead at that point, I go with Williams/Hader to finish. Hader will be on 3 days rest by Wednesday, I am hoping he will be available for all three games if need be.

[SoCalBrewfan]

With all the key LH hitters on LA, I think the lefty-righty stuff is going to be part of Counsell's thinking, though I think Muncy is counterintuitively a reverse split guy historically. I'd guess Suter then Peralta or Rasmussen, with Claudio available for Pederson or other LH subs.

 

I think Dodgers vs LH starters are usually Betts ®, Seager (L), Turner ®, Muncy (L*), Smith ®, Bellinger (L), Pollock ®, then hard to say, Hernandez and maybe Taylor? Sometimes they swap Bellinger and Pollock, I think? So you figure there will come a time when you want a RHP for Turner / Muncy / Smith or maybe for Pollock / Hernandez / Taylor / Betts. IF they pinch hit with Rios and Pederson after you go RHP, then you have Claudio and Lauer to counter.

 

Dunno, just spitballing...

[igor67]

A lot depends on what kind of schedule Williams and Hader can be successful on. If you think they would be better off with an off day and need to stick to the 1 inning pitching, then you definitely look at making sure you get them into game 1 early in my book. I might even lean into trying to squeeze 2 innings from them in game 1, if you don't like going back to back days, and then you've got them for at last an inning in game 3. Plan #1 though is definitely avoid game 3 at all.

[liveforoctober]

A lot depends on what kind of schedule Williams and Hader can be successful on. If you think they would be better off with an off day and need to stick to the 1 inning pitching, then you definitely look at making sure you get them into game 1 early in my book. I might even lean into trying to squeeze 2 innings from them in game 1, if you don't like going back to back days, and then you've got them for at last an inning in game 3. Plan #1 though is definitely avoid game 3 at all.

 

I'm of the opposite thinking. The most likely scenario of the Brewers being in a competitive game is Gm2 with Woodruff on the mound. Both Hader and Williams need to be available on Thursday. Neither one should be throwing 2 innings tomorrow IMO. I don't think that matters because if Hader needs to throw 3 days in a row here he will but nevertheless, 2 innings early from either guy in Gm1 is a no-no to me. If they have lead late I can see Williams throwing 2... but not otherwise.

[Eye Black]

With all the key LH hitters on LA, I think the lefty-righty stuff is going to be part of Counsell's thinking, though I think Muncy is counterintuitively a reverse split guy historically. I'd guess Suter then Peralta or Rasmussen, with Claudio available for Pederson or other LH subs.

 

I think Dodgers vs LH starters are usually Betts ®, Seager (L), Turner ®, Muncy (L*), Smith ®, Bellinger (L), Pollock ®, then hard to say, Hernandez and maybe Taylor? Sometimes they swap Bellinger and Pollock, I think? So you figure there will come a time when you want a RHP for Turner / Muncy / Smith or maybe for Pollock / Hernandez / Taylor / Betts. IF they pinch hit with Rios and Pederson after you go RHP, then you have Claudio and Lauer to counter.

 

Dunno, just spitballing...

Speaking of reverse splits, although his career numbers have only been slightly “worse” against LHP, this year Mookie Betts has been quite a bit worse against southpaws. In 2020 he’s had a 1.061 OPS against RHP and a .505 OPS against LHP.

[dlk9s]

Very carefully.

[Eye Black]

This series matchup makes me really wish Pomeranz would’ve had one more year of control when the Brewers traded for him last year.

[Madhawk23]

This series matchup makes me really wish Pomeranz would’ve had one more year of control when the Brewers traded for him last year.

 

Oh man....can you imagine a D Will, Pom, Hader trio in the back end of our pen this year? Get a lead through 5 and you shut the door.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

With 3 days off in between wild card and next round, I don’t know if consecutive days matter. It’s probably more about effectiveness.

[Madhawk23]

The other thing to consider in this series: the next round doesn't start until Tuesday (why the long layoff - I have no idea?), so even the winner of this series doesn't have to worry that much about having enough pitching available for game 1 of the divisional series.

[WV Brew]

Orlando Arcia, 9 innings. He has a 162 game W/L expectation percentage of .498 which gives the Brewers their best chance.

[long ball]

I'd 100% start Suter. Hope he can give me 3. Also hope to get 3 from Williams/Hader if the game is close.

 

That leaves 2-3 in the middle to figure out. Yardley, Claudio, Houser are all sorta match up types in these middle innings. Maybe Counsell can deploy them effectively in situations that favor them. Maybe also try to steal the last out of an inning with the likes of Black or Knebel. Freddy, if available is probably my first choice for a couple of middle innings.

 

In an absolutely perfect world I would hope it could line up like this:

 

1 Suter

2 Suter

3 Suter

4 Freddy

5 Freddy

6 Yardley

7 Williams

8 Williams

9 Hader

[igor67]

If you think they will be effective on consecutive nights it is a very different story. The short season may also change how much you are willing to ride those arms at this point too. With the super short series and your best starter in game 2 though there is every reason in my mind to play Game 1 like it is the entire series. To that end I suggest scoring 10+ in the first inning as the best pitching strategy.

[DHonks]

Given how Lauer owned that Dodgers lineup last year as a Padre, I'd consider starting him. If he looks bad early, go to the pen. I mean, if you are going to do a pen game anyway, why not?

 

This is what I'd do. Start Lauer and have the bullpen on high alert, particularly Suter.

 

I love the outside the box thinking and we are going to have to be creative for 27 innings to be able to beat the Dodgers AND this would be quite the cinderella/rabbit pull, etc if it were to work... however Lauer managed to be a -.6 WAR in only 4 appearances this year. Something isn't right or the Covid style of baseball just didn't work for him or something... he really, really struggled. The likelihood of it working isn't very good and so starting Lauer in Game 1 of the playoffs against the best team in baseball with 95% of your pitchers available to you is a borderline fireable offense in my very humble opinion. I will eat a months worth of crow if Lauer starts Gm1 and pitches well and I would be happy to do it.

 

This would be a bit like giving Woodruff a PH opportunity against Kershaw over Gamel in Gm2 because of past success...

 

I’m hoping we can be creative and throw only 18 successful innings

[3and2Fastball]

Suter for 2 innings

Devin Williams innings 3 & 4

Fastball Freddy innings 5 & 6

Hope and a Prayer inning 7

Hader 8 & 9

[FVBrewerFan]

Brewers jump out to 5-0 lead, so they can push it a bit and get 7 out of Suter/Peralta, then finish up with Claudio/Rasmussen/Yardley. Brewers win 6-3. Game 2, Woodruff/Williams/Hader. Brewers win 3-2.

[tmwiese55]

I know it seems odd but I think you have to start with Suter and go from there. If you have a close lead in the 7th you have to use Williams/Hader to cover those 3 innings and get the W in the bag, worry about game 2 when you get there. The 2-3 innings in between is where it gets tricky if they're up or close in the game. He doesn't have a ton of good options there so can't blame him for whatever route they go based on matchups/situation.

[bjkrautk]

Lauer for 1-2

Peralta for 3-4

Suter for 5-6

then either good bullpen (Topa on a short leash, Williams, Hader) if they're ahead, or bad bullpen (everyone else) if they're behind.

 

Since there's a DH, they can stretch guys a little longer than the initial plan, but the idea is to avoid giving multiple looks at a particular style of pitcher.

[tmwiese55]

Am I missing something on Lauer as I've seen his name a fair amount on here? After being bad and sent down, since being brought back he's only pitched once and also did poorly in that game. Yet we're considering him for this game.

[bigredrobbo]

Yeli, Braun and Hiura go OFF in the first 3 innings and we coast home with the B Pitchers!

[FVBrewerFan]

Am I missing something on Lauer as I've seen his name a fair amount on here? After being bad and sent down, since being brought back he's only pitched once and also did poorly in that game. Yet we're considering him for this game.

 

Lauer's past success vs Dodgers is why it's coming up.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I would also wonder who would pitch Game 3, but I feel like the Brewers will take this series in 2 games.

[Oxy]

I would also wonder who would pitch Game 3, but I feel like the Brewers will take this series in 2 games.

 

I think Anderson will pitch in game 3, and then it depends on who is available if he is ineffective. I understand why guys get time off in the regular season for blisters, but seriously....in an elimination game I'd think if he's getting outs/making good pitches he can pitch thru blisters. If not, then pull him early.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would also wonder who would pitch Game 3, but I feel like the Brewers will take this series in 2 games.

 

I think Anderson will pitch in game 3, and then it depends on who is available if he is ineffective. I understand why guys get time off in the regular season for blisters, but seriously....in an elimination game I'd think if he's getting outs/making good pitches he can pitch thru blisters. If not, then pull him early.

 

The problem with "pitching through" blisters is that they often affect a pitcher's grip on the ball, which throws off command. Given that Anderson throws junk, if he doesn't have his command, he's toast. I've heard of pitchers "fixing" blisters with super glue, but not sure how effective that is.