2021 Free Agents

[brewcrewdue80]

With all the revenue we missed out on with no fans and the fact that we cut payroll last offseason with expectations of big crowds I think most of you are going to be disappointed when we are forced to shop in the bargain bin once again.

 

So just slide right on by my question to you and make this statement above^

 

 

brewers888 said:

balsamlaker said:

I could see Gonzalez or Freddy Galvis?

 

 

So dumpster diving 2.0. I totally expect another underwhelming offseason unless we can improve through the trade route.

 

 

Look at the FAs.

 

Who please tell would be players you wouldn't call Dumpster-diving?

 

Can't wait to see this long list...ahem oh maybe it's just one.

[wntrtxn21]

With all the revenue we missed out on with no fans and the fact that we cut payroll last offseason with expectations of big crowds I think most of you are going to be disappointed when we are forced to shop in the bargain bin once again.

 

So just slide right on by my question to you and make this statement above^

 

 

brewers888 said:

balsamlaker said:

I could see Gonzalez or Freddy Galvis?

 

 

So dumpster diving 2.0. I totally expect another underwhelming offseason unless we can improve through the trade route.

 

 

Look at the FAs.

 

Who please tell would be players you wouldn't call Dumpster-diving?

 

Can't wait to see this long list...ahem oh maybe it's just one.

 

You're right. With what Stearns has to work with there are few if any FAs worth signing. However if the Brewers had Dodger-like money and you include the FAs with club options there a quite a few who would be the just-dreaming list (Realmuto - LaStella - Rizzo - LaMahieu - Gordon - Iglesias - Brantley - Springer - Castellanos if he opts out - Bauer - Giles - Doolittle). Obviously none of those guys would be affordable for Stearns, so it's just wishful thinking.

[PDCBalla]

Chicago Tribune is projecting the Cubs non tendering both Bryant and Schwarber. Both are eligible for FA in 2022. I imagine either or both might be open to a one year prove it deal to re-establish their value in the 2020 FA market. It's hard to see the Brewers stretching their payroll coming off the revenue disaster that was 2020, but it's an example of what might be a very interesting offseason market.

 

Where was this?

[JosephC]

Updated with MLB Trade Rumors full-season arbitration estimates-

 

Guarantees:

Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)

Yelich = 14 million

Garcia = 10.5 million

Lindblom = 2.75 million

Suter = 1.5 million

Peralta = 1 million

Total = 45.75 million

 

Arbitration (from MLB Trade Rumors):

Note - Omitting Healy and Peterson is not a mistake, maybe they will be back, maybe not

Hader = 6.8 million estimate

Woodruff = 4.5 million estimate

Arcia = 3.8 million estimate

Narvaez = 3.1 million estimate

Pina = 2.3 million

Claudio = 2.3 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)

Gamel = 2.1 million

Vogelbach = 1.9 million

Knebel = no offer

Total = 26.8 million

 

Buyouts

Braun = 4 million

Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)

Sogard = 0.5 million

Total = 5.5 million

 

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Arcia, Narvaez, Pina, Claudio, Gamel and Vogelbach equal 14. So that's 12 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-

Total = 7.2 million

 

Grand total without Braun = 85.25 million

 

Looks like about 14-15 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?

 

This could be a crazy year, league-wide, for teams not offering arbitration to eligible players. Of the Brewer's 11 eligible players, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see over half of them not be offered arbitration.

[brewers888]

Updated with MLB Trade Rumors full-season arbitration estimates-

 

Guarantees:

Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)

Yelich = 14 million

Garcia = 10.5 million

Lindblom = 2.75 million

Suter = 1.5 million

Peralta = 1 million

Total = 45.75 million

 

Arbitration (from MLB Trade Rumors):

Note - Omitting Healy and Peterson is not a mistake, maybe they will be back, maybe not

Hader = 6.8 million estimate

Woodruff = 4.5 million estimate

Arcia = 3.8 million estimate

Narvaez = 3.1 million estimate

Pina = 2.3 million

Claudio = 2.3 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)

Gamel = 2.1 million

Vogelbach = 1.9 million

Knebel = no offer

Total = 26.8 million

 

Buyouts

Braun = 4 million

Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)

Sogard = 0.5 million

Total = 5.5 million

 

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Arcia, Narvaez, Pina, Claudio, Gamel and Vogelbach equal 14. So that's 12 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-

Total = 7.2 million

 

Grand total without Braun = 85.25 million

 

Looks like about 14-15 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?

 

This could be a crazy year, league-wide, for teams not offering arbitration to eligible players. Of the Brewer's 11 eligible players, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see over half of them not be offered arbitration.

 

The payroll is more likely to be 70 million than 100. Expect many teams to be cutting payroll especially small markets. I would be shocked if our payroll is anywhere near 100 milion.

[TURBO]

I don't think there is any chance that we will have a payroll of 100 million in 2021. I would expect it to be 80 million, give or take 5 million.

 

I think we are in for some lean times, and my gut tells me we are going to start relying heavily on our minor league players to fill holes. Especially in the pitching department since we have no hitters ready yet. So in that regard, we'll keep adding dumpster offensive guys, hoping beyond hope to catch some lightning in a bottle.

 

*sigh*

 

It may be a while before we sniff the playoffs again, which is why I am all in on trading Hader before his value starts declining.

[Soupbone]

Turbo I think you are correct in what you said in your post. The only way we stay competitive for a playoff spot is a Hader trade for some bats. I think our pitching is good enough but we have to be able to score runs much more consistently than we did this year. The thing is the Central doesn't have a super team so we can hang in there.

[pacopete4]

If they don’t plan on trying to contend now, they should not have signed Yelich and should have moved him as well. Such a waste of resources if this is how it plays out.

[TURBO]

If they don’t plan on trying to contend now, they should not have signed Yelich and should have moved him as well. Such a waste of resources if this is how it plays out.

 

WORD!

[ougiqbxy]

Updated with MLB Trade Rumors full-season arbitration estimates-

 

Guarantees:

Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)

Yelich = 14 million

Garcia = 10.5 million

Lindblom = 2.75 million

Suter = 1.5 million

Peralta = 1 million

Total = 45.75 million

 

Arbitration (from MLB Trade Rumors):

Note - Omitting Healy and Peterson is not a mistake, maybe they will be back, maybe not

Hader = 6.8 million estimate

Woodruff = 4.5 million estimate

Arcia = 3.8 million estimate

Narvaez = 3.1 million estimate

Pina = 2.3 million

Claudio = 2.3 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)

Gamel = 2.1 million

Vogelbach = 1.9 million

Knebel = no offer

Total = 26.8 million

 

Buyouts

Braun = 4 million

Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)

Sogard = 0.5 million

Total = 5.5 million

 

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Arcia, Narvaez, Pina, Claudio, Gamel and Vogelbach equal 14. So that's 12 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-

Total = 7.2 million

 

Grand total without Braun = 85.25 million

 

Looks like about 14-15 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?

 

This could be a crazy year, league-wide, for teams not offering arbitration to eligible players. Of the Brewer's 11 eligible players, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see over half of them not be offered arbitration.

 

Don't we owe $1,750,000 total to Smoak and Holt as well that counts towards payroll?

[CheezWizHed]

If they don’t plan on trying to contend now, they should not have signed Yelich and should have moved him as well. Such a waste of resources if this is how it plays out.

 

Except that Yelich is still very "movable" with his new contract.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cain actually did them a favor by opting out for all but 5 games last year. What the ultimate payroll is for 2021, probably depends on the outlook for return of fans. They likely won't know that until Feb. 1st when most experts believe a vaccine could be universally available and they'll have some data from early vaccinations of the vulnerable groups. If they have to restrict attendance to say 50%, or lower for first couple months, they are going to need more concessions from players union. It's really up in the air.

[pacopete4]

If they don’t plan on trying to contend now, they should not have signed Yelich and should have moved him as well. Such a waste of resources if this is how it plays out.

 

Except that Yelich is still very "movable" with his new contract.

 

 

I don't see it that way. He lost the value he had once the pen hit the paper. On top of that, he was garbage this past season coming off a season-ending injury. It will take him proving he is fine next spring before he regains any sort of value to trade away.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't see it that way. He lost the value he had once the pen hit the paper. On top of that, he was garbage this past season coming off a season-ending injury. It will take him proving he is fine next spring before he regains any sort of value to trade away.

 

When he signed the extension, most people felt he massively undersold himself. So I doubt the contract will scare many away. Frankly, I think Braun's last contract when he first signed it was far more of a problem than Yelich's is now.

 

I really doubt anyone is going to look at his numbers in 2020 and think this is the new Yelich. I really don't think the Brewers will move Yelich this winter, but they could easily move him if they wanted to. If he continues to play like 2020 in 2021, that might start to get people concerned, but most players are going to get a pass for 2020...

[Jopal78]

I don't see it that way. He lost the value he had once the pen hit the paper. On top of that, he was garbage this past season coming off a season-ending injury. It will take him proving he is fine next spring before he regains any sort of value to trade away.

 

When he signed the extension, most people felt he massively undersold himself. So I doubt the contract will scare many away. Frankly, I think Braun's last contract when he first signed it was far more of a problem than Yelich's is now.

 

I really doubt anyone is going to look at his numbers in 2020 and think this is the new Yelich. I really don't think the Brewers will move Yelich this winter, but they could easily move him if they wanted to. If he continues to play like 2020 in 2021, that might start to get people concerned, but most players are going to get a pass for 2020...

 

Yelich has a full no trade agreement. Since he has control of where he plays, his value in any potential trade from here on out is limited no matter how well he plays.

[danzig6767]

I don't think there is any chance that we will have a payroll of 100 million in 2021. I would expect it to be 80 million, give or take 5 million.

 

I think we are in for some lean times, and my gut tells me we are going to start relying heavily on our minor league players to fill holes. Especially in the pitching department since we have no hitters ready yet. So in that regard, we'll keep adding dumpster offensive guys, hoping beyond hope to catch some lightning in a bottle.

 

*sigh*

 

It may be a while before we sniff the playoffs again, which is why I am all in on trading Hader before his value starts declining.

A lot of teams will be facing a financial crunch because of the shortened season, no fans in the stands, and the uncertainty of if/when fans can return to stadiums next year, not just the Brewers.

 

It's probably going to make for an offseason like we've never seen before with so much financial uncertainty. Becoming a free agent this year couldn't come at a worse time for most players. Lot's of teams likely bargain hunting on shorter term deals until this whole Covid situation is over and teams can have more financial certainty.

[TURBO]

Yeah, I think a lot of players will be signing 1 year deals, hoping that 2022 is fully back to normal...

[brewmann04]

i hope these next one year deals will be better.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd personally like to see them bring back Cory Spangenberg. I certainly like him over Peterson or Sogard. He was decent in Japan, .263/.318/482.

[Eye Black]

Now officially just five days from the start of the free agency...

[reillymcshane]

In the wake of Kolten Wong's (somewhat) surprising release, I read some talk to expect a lot of extra free agents on the market this year. The big thing is that team revenues are down (and no one knows when fans will be allowed back to the ballpark - or if they'll even want to come), and thus they are looking to cut costs. That means fewer options picked up, and fewer guys offered arbitration. Teams are expecting to go with young players, and/or sign veterans at bargain rates as there will be a lot more of them on the market.

 

Expect a lot of one-year deals - with players looking to set themselves up for 2022 when things are more likely to be a bit more normal.

[Lathund]

For arbitration-eligible players there will be a lot of non-tenders and also a lot of the type of deals we saw Piña, Suter and Gamel sign. I would imagine free agent contracts will be a lot of 1 year deals with options. The 1 year will be relatively low value as teams will be very stingy, but the options will be both be expensive and have expensive buyouts. Essentially deferring money, like what the Brewers did with Moose and Grandal to help fit them into their budget, but a more extreme version thereof. It's one way for teams to save money in 2021 and for players to still somewhat get paid. Next offseason would then also have a huge amount of free agents (And with some huge names out there) just as a new CBA would kick in... that could be chaos.

[Eye Black]

In the wake of Kolten Wong's (somewhat) surprising release, I read some talk to expect a lot of extra free agents on the market this year. The big thing is that team revenues are down (and no one knows when fans will be allowed back to the ballpark - or if they'll even want to come), and thus they are looking to cut costs. That means fewer options picked up, and fewer guys offered arbitration. Teams are expecting to go with young players, and/or sign veterans at bargain rates as there will be a lot more of them on the market.

 

Expect a lot of one-year deals - with players looking to set themselves up for 2022 when things are more likely to be a bit more normal.

Agreed, it’s not going to be a good year to be a mid-tier free agent. The unknown of when they’ll be able to pack the stands again coupled with the fact we’re one year away from the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement will make this an offseason where teams won’t go beyond one year deals unless it’s for the top crust of the free agent class.

[MrTPlush]

Todd Frazier is officially a FA. I suppose he could be an option at 3B.

[Jopal78]

Todd Frazier is officially a FA. I suppose he could be an option at 3B.

 

Are we turning back the clock to 2015? Since opening day of 2016 (covering 2000+ at bats), Todd Frazier has hit .226/.318/.431, struck out in 26% of his at bats, and will be 35 by opening day 2021.

 

I hope the team has their sights set higher than bringing in another aging veteran who struggles to make contact and get on base. Didn't they already have Sogard multiple times?