2021 Free Agents

[HiAndTight]

I think the best we can hope for is a 1 year contract similar to what we did with Grandal.

 

The one guy I’d love to see that with is Trevor Bauer. If we could go Bauer, Woodruff, Burnes with D Williams and Hader out of the pen Etc, that is a pitching staff that can make a run.

 

Give Bauer one year $38 million or whatever. Roll that dice, Mark!

 

If we're spending 38 million next year, I think we'd be far better used to shore up the lineup. Now I'm not saying we're going to be the '98 Braves, but with Burnes and Woody to anchor the rotation and with the half a dozen young arms who can throw in the upper 90's, Rassmussen, Angel Perdomo who has a ton of upside yet with his delivery as a power lefty...despite obvious command issues, Topa, Knebel, Ray Black, Bobby Wahl...as well as others to go with Williams and Hader in the pen. At some point next year guys like Ashby...Brown is just one season removed from looking like he may join Burnes and Woodruff, Supak. Obviously more of unproven guys will continue to struggle than hit next year, but someone like Perdomo becoming an Amir Garrett like reliever, Knebel a full year healthy after TJ.

 

BP of Rassmussen, Perdomo, Yardley, Topa, Houser, Peralta, Knebel, Williams, Hader

That could be a truly elite BP.

 

So...I'd definitely rather see that 38 million go to trying to add a bat(assuming we even have ~40 million to spend, which I think is unlikely).

 

 

 

I'd much rather see the Brewers go after a Tommy La Stella type, maybe Didi if his value drops a bit from what is currently projected.

And then a Michael Brantley on a 2/30 type deal. Last three years he's been healthy and productive with a slash of. 309/.368/.484

 

 

Two big time contact hitters. This assumes the DH is here to stay, but I think this could be a very competitive lineup if guys bounce back;

 

1-La Stella LH/3B

2-Cain RH/CF

3-Brantley LH/OF-DH

4-Yelich RH/OF-DH

5-Hiura RH/2B

6-Garcia RH/OF-DH

7-Gyorko RH/1B(Utility)

8-Narvaez RH/C

9-Urias/Arcias RH/SS

 

That's not the '27 Yanks, but you add two guys who VERY seldom strikeout and who have hit well the last couple years, Yelich is almost certainly going to bounce back, Narvaez you would assume would as well as Garcia.

 

That's a good lineup and if those guys play like they played in 2019, it could be a good lineup.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jake Lamb does make some sense. He’d be like a lot of players we tried this season though. Keep the expectation low.

 

Lamb makes a lot of sense. If they could get Lamb and Cron, that would free up Gyroko to platoon with either Lamb or Vogelbach assuming Braun's not back. Lamb's by no means a sure thing but he's shown signs of the player with Oakland he was with Arizona in 2016 and 2017.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hiura is not a very big target at 1B.

 

Yes, I realize Prince wasn't very tall either, but so far, Hiura is no Prince Fielder.

 

Yep. Don't think he'd fair all to well at 1b.

 

La Stella imo is about to ask for a 3/27-36 career defining contract. His best 2 seasons in value are 2019 and 2020. He's over 30, he's not the FA who's looking for the 1year prove it deal, he's proven it likely as high as he's going to. I wouldn't be surprised the winning bid is having a 4th year option. Something like 5mil buyout or 15mil. Thus the 5mil keeps the 3year avg lower in payroll by nearly 2mil. Oakland just traded away a former top 30 prospect/100 late SS in minors for the smallest of rental for TLS.

I think that may be outta the price range and commitment for a late blooming utility inf to play 1b in the scenario.

 

Part of the picture on that is not only the payroll effect, but guys like Hader/Kneble/Gyorko/Garcia/Gamel/Pina are trade potentials in a 2021 deadline deal that may get a 1b/3b in return. My idea on Cabrera would likely fit Stearns' 1+ rental signing while I think we're in the waiting mode for the offense now to catch up with the pitching.

He doesn't need to rebuild or get crazy. Just waiting for the right offer or FA to fit the roster.

[LouisEly]

Jake Lamb could be had for cheap, would fill a need and could actually be really good (or really terrible, of course, but that's just about everybody)

That's exactly who I was thinking of. Let's be real, they're not going to have a lot of money to spend so I think that is the one place they might dip in FA.

 

I'd like to start the season with Urias in AAA, but that would mean signing a backup SS and there isn't much for FA SS.

 

I'd also like to start the season with Gyorko at 2B and Hiura in AAA to get his stroke back.

 

C: Pina, Nottingham

1B: Braun (if he comes back at a total of $10M or less) or Vogelbach

2B: Gyorko

SS: Arcia (Fangraphs had him as +0.7 WAR, and he had the 2nd lowest K rate on the team)

3B: Lamb

LF: Yelich

CF: Cain

RF: Garcia

 

Bench: Urias/FA, Gamel, Peterson, Vogelbach/Taylor

 

AAA: Hiura, Narvaez, possibly Urias

[nate82]

Lamb has been horrible for the past two years. I am not sure why he would be in any kind of discussion unless it is for AAA filler. I would rather see Sogard play everyday at 3B than have Lamb play for a single game. Throwing out 2020 even though it is another bad year for Lamb he has had a wRC+ of 79 and 80. He also strikes out at about 25% of the time if you want to add more strike outs to this team then go ahead and get Lamb.

 

La Stella is probably the perfect fit for the Brewers at 3B and he shouldn't cost more than $12m a season. I think that would be his maximum that he could get in normal free agency. In this upcoming off season if the teams are only able to do 20-30% of capacity I believe the free agent dollars won't be there and he maxes out at $10m a season. If the teams are able to get 50% or more then I think we will see free agency as normal and he may get more than $12m a season but I think that is a stretch unless a team gets desperate.

 

I believe the Brewers have about $30-35m to spend this off season and that depends on if they trade Hader or not. Hader's arbitration is going to impact how much the Brewers are going to spend in free agency. Ultimately I think Hader gets traded and if everything works out it will be for pieces that will help the team now but if the best offer are pieces that will help further down the line I think Stearns will go with the better offer.

 

If the Brewers don't trade Hader I think they will be looking at Profar, La Stella, Semien or Hernandez as possible additions with Turner, Gregorious, Brantley or Grossman as outside chances. I think Brantley will sign for a 2-3 year deal but will be looking at $15m per year at a minimum while Gregorious will be looking for a multi year deal something around 4-6 years at about $16-17m a season. Turner and Grossman are a little bit harder to predict on what they could get with Turner being older and Grossman in a market that is saturated with good OF's. I don't see Brantley as an everyday OF more of a DH at this point in his career kind of reminds me of Molitor.

 

Pitching wise I think there are some deals out there that the Brewers could get in Tanaka, Chatwood or Ray. Tanaka is coming off a good but not great year with the Yankees and will be looking at a 3-4 year deal. I think the Yankees will resign him or he will go to the Angels but he could be had for about $7-9m a season though I could see the Yankees and Angels upping that amount to where it wouldn't be worth going after Tanaka. Chatwood had an up and down year kind of like his whole career and I think he tops out at $10m a season for 3-5 years though I am not sure I would sign him for that amount. Ray is an interesting problem here he was looking like one of the top pitchers to be entering free agency a couple of years ago. I think 2020 is not who Ray is but I don't think he is a sub 3 ERA pitcher either. He is somewhere in the middle of his 2018 and 2019 season and his 2020 season looks a little similar to Burnes' 2019 season. I would be surprised if next year given a full season that Ray is a 3.5 ERA pitcher which puts him as a solid #2 or #3 type pitcher. How much has his 2020 season cost him in free agency I am not sure but I think he is someone that the Brewers could pick up. Maybe he goes for a 1-year deal at $10m or he goes with a player option laden deal where he can opt out after his first year to get more in the following years free agency.

 

I think the Brewers have enough to get someone like Ray and one of Profar/La Stella/Semien/Hernandez if the Brewers keep Hader. If the Brewers trade Hader and assuming the deal will be more prospect driven I think the Brewers could go with Ray, Profar/La Stella/Semien/Hernandez and one of Brantley or Turner. If the Brewers sign Turner I think they would go with Profar as he can play more positions and if they go Brantley they would go with La Stella. Semien to me is the most interesting player in free agency as I think he could be a diamond and might be someone who flourishes in Milwaukee where he will hit for more power the same can be said for Profar.

[brewmann04]

If the Brewers can get a Pitcher and a guy who can play 3rd everyday i would like to see that happen.

[Eye Black]

I’m sort of curious to see what sort of contract LHP Jose Quintana receives in free agency. The Brewers reportedly tried to acquire him back in 2017 before he ultimately went to the Cubs. He’s had mostly solid yet unspectacular results since then. He missed most of this season after cutting his pitching hand while washing dishes, but did make it back for some appearances over the last month. He’ll turn 32 this offseason so maybe he tries to squeeze out a multi-year deal from someone, but if he was willing to take a one year prove it deal then I wouldn’t hate the Brewers taking a shot on him having a bit of a 2021 resurgence.

[MrTPlush]

I’m sort of curious to see what sort of contract LHP Jose Quintana receives in free agency. The Brewers reportedly tried to acquire him back in 2017 before he ultimately went to the Cubs. He’s had mostly solid yet unspectacular results since then. He missed most of this season after cutting his pitching hand while washing dishes, but did make it back for some appearances over the last month. He’ll turn 32 this offseason so maybe he tries to squeeze out a multi-year deal from someone, but if he was willing to take a one year prove it deal then I wouldn’t hate the Brewers taking a shot on him having a bit of a 2021 resurgence.

 

I think he goes for a prove it deal. It has been quite awhile since he was good. I don't see a team giving him a nice multi-year deal. He is young enough to swing a 3-4 year deal if he has a nice 2021.

 

Maybe a team would go 2/$16mil...but I don't know why he would do that, might as well bet on yourself. Not hard to get decent cash as a LHP year to year as long as you are half competent.

[Madhawk23]

Just had to look up Quintana's stats. Boy, it's shocking to see how pedestrian he has been the past few years, given how dominating he is against us every time we face him. I just assumed that he must have mid 3 ERA's and some solid peripheral numbers to go with it, but nope - not really. Clearly, every other team besides us has figured out how to hit that guy. I'd probably take a hard pass on him unless if you can get him on a really cheap one-year "prove it" deal and if you think that you can fix some of the issues that may have been holding him back with the Cubs the past few years.

[Simba2020]

Lamb hasn't been a productive MLB player since 2017. He was released during this season. While he showed a little something with Oakland after signing with them, I'm not sure he will be guaranteed a major league contract this offseason.

 

I'd love to see a guy like La Stella who puts the ball in play on a regular basis in a Brewers uniform. I'm also not convinced he'd be looking for the type of contract that many expect. Infielders don't seem to get huge contracts unless they are the truly elite difference makers. Don't think he qualifies. Asdrubal Cabrera was coming off of a 23 homer season and a four year stretch where he posted a .779 OPS and he got a $3.5 million contract. Followed that up in 2019 with a .783 OPS and got $2.5 million. He's older of course but did have much more of a track record than La Stella has. This might be Tommy's last shot at a bigger contract but still seems like something in the $6 to $7 million per year range would be reasonable.

[Jaylyn]

Those that lose out on LeMahieu, will pivot to La Stella, probably taking him out of our price range. I expect another year of fishing the bottom, but value can be had there. Marwin Gonzalez?

[balsamlaker]

I could see Gonzalez or Freddy Galvis?

[brewers888]

I could see Gonzalez or Freddy Galvis?

 

So dumpster diving 2.0. I totally expect another underwhelming offseason unless we can improve through the trade route.

[wntrtxn21]

Those that lose out on LeMahieu, will pivot to La Stella, probably taking him out of our price range. I expect another year of fishing the bottom, but value can be had there. Marwin Gonzalez?

 

If they are thinking of Gonzalez, Stearns might as well just keep Gyorko and save a lot of money.

[brewcrewdue80]

I could see Gonzalez or Freddy Galvis?

 

So dumpster diving 2.0. I totally expect another underwhelming offseason unless we can improve through the trade route.

 

Look at the FAs.

 

Who please tell would be players you wouldn't call Dumpster-diving?

 

Can't wait to see this long list...ahem oh maybe it's just one.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chicago Tribune is projecting the Cubs non tendering both Bryant and Schwarber. Both are eligible for FA in 2022. I imagine either or both might be open to a one year prove it deal to re-establish their value in the 2020 FA market. It's hard to see the Brewers stretching their payroll coming off the revenue disaster that was 2020, but it's an example of what might be a very interesting offseason market.

[Lathund]

I have a very hard time seeing the Cubs non-tender either of them. Trade? Absolutely, even if the return might not be great. But just outright nontendering them doesn't seem like a great idea.

 

I don't think it's all that realistic, but the Brewers picking up Bryant and him having success here would probably drive some Cubs fan insane, so I'd love to see that, however unlikely it may be that he'll be available and affordable.

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, I guess I don't understand why the Cubs wouldn't try to trade them, instead of non-tendering them a contract?

 

There's no doubt though that this is going to be a crazy offseason. And, by "crazy," I don't mean the good crazy where deals are happening all over the place. I'd be shocked if we see much player movement before Jan/Feb.

[Eye Black]

There's no doubt though that this is going to be a crazy offseason. And, by "crazy," I don't mean the good crazy where deals are happening all over the place. I'd be shocked if we see much player movement before Jan/Feb.

I agree in that I don't expect much free agent movement until there is more clarity on what the future looks like. We don't even know when they'll find out the future of the DH in the NL, let alone knowing whether games will be played in front of paying customers next season. Aside from a team or two that might want to make a splash early in the free agency period, I expect the majority of the player signings to drag into sometime in January or beyond. I hope we're wrong, but it seems the most likely reality at this point.

[nate82]

I think we see a flurry of 1-year deals with player options for a 2nd year. You might see a few players getting longer term deals but that will be from large market teams and it will be mostly them resigning players.

 

I think LeMahieu will resign with the Yankees at 4-years $60m and that might be it for the major multi year signings. I don't think Bauer will get a mega contract and he will go with a 1-year deal at $35m with the Angels.

 

Then you have a bunch of average players who will be looking at the 1-year deals with a player option for a 2nd year. The amount of fans that will be allowed in attendance will drive what the free agents will be able to get. If the teams are looking at only 10-20% capacity expect a lot of 1-year deals with a player option for a 2nd. This makes sense for both the teams and the players. The following years free agency maybe the year that teams really open their pocket books if we are looking at capacity restrictions being removed.

 

I don't believe the Cubs will non tender Schwarber but Bryant could totally be non tendered by the Cubs. Bryant was injured and played horribly in the shortened season and this was probably the worst scenario for the Cubs. The Cubs do have a cheaper option to play 3B in Bote though he is not as good offensively as Bryant is but he is a much better defender at 3B than Bryant is.

 

I don't think the Cubs would get much of anything in value for Bryant on the trade market and they would be selling extremely low on him. If the Cubs do non tender someone it will be Bryant and not Schwarber. Schwarber still holds some value maybe not the peak value he once had but he definitely has some value on the trade market unlike Bryant who doesn't have much at all. For the Brewers it makes a lot of sense to gamble on someone like Bryant and Sanchez and see if they can be the hitters they once were. I don't see the Brewers going into free agency and getting anything better than those two. I think LaStella is out of the price range for the Brewers if they are cutting payroll though Bryant would definitely be out of the Brewers price range also unless he signs a small prove it deal. I wouldn't be surprised if Bryant is released that he signs with another NL Central team to stick it to the Cubs.

[Madhawk23]

I think we see a flurry of 1-year deals with player options for a 2nd year. You might see a few players getting longer term deals but that will be from large market teams and it will be mostly them resigning players.

 

I think LeMahieu will resign with the Yankees at 4-years $60m and that might be it for the major multi year signings. I don't think Bauer will get a mega contract and he will go with a 1-year deal at $35m with the Angels.

 

Then you have a bunch of average players who will be looking at the 1-year deals with a player option for a 2nd year. The amount of fans that will be allowed in attendance will drive what the free agents will be able to get. If the teams are looking at only 10-20% capacity expect a lot of 1-year deals with a player option for a 2nd. This makes sense for both the teams and the players. The following years free agency maybe the year that teams really open their pocket books if we are looking at capacity restrictions being removed.

 

I don't believe the Cubs will non tender Schwarber but Bryant could totally be non tendered by the Cubs. Bryant was injured and played horribly in the shortened season and this was probably the worst scenario for the Cubs. The Cubs do have a cheaper option to play 3B in Bote though he is not as good offensively as Bryant is but he is a much better defender at 3B than Bryant is.

 

I don't think the Cubs would get much of anything in value for Bryant on the trade market and they would be selling extremely low on him. If the Cubs do non tender someone it will be Bryant and not Schwarber. Schwarber still holds some value maybe not the peak value he once had but he definitely has some value on the trade market unlike Bryant who doesn't have much at all. For the Brewers it makes a lot of sense to gamble on someone like Bryant and Sanchez and see if they can be the hitters they once were. I don't see the Brewers going into free agency and getting anything better than those two. I think LaStella is out of the price range for the Brewers if they are cutting payroll though Bryant would definitely be out of the Brewers price range also unless he signs a small prove it deal. I wouldn't be surprised if Bryant is released that he signs with another NL Central team to stick it to the Cubs.

 

Boy, put me in the camp that would be giddy with excitement if the Cubs non-tendered Bryant and the Brewers got involved on a 1-year prove-it type deal. Can you imagine the uproar from Cubs fans everywhere if their golden child KB ended up terrorizing them in 2021 in a Brewers uniform! Oh, it would be absolutely magical!

 

With all of this said - do we have any idea what it would take to sign KB on a 1-year deal, if he did become a free agent? Something tells me that one of the bigger market teams would want to get involved on this - and maybe there's a team out there that would come to the table with a multi-year deal (even after his struggles this past year). So, probably a HUGE longshot that he'd end up in Milwaukee next year, but we can dream, right?

[pacopete4]

IF Bryant becomes a free agent, just pay the man and put him with Yelich and enjoy.

[brewers888]

With all the revenue we missed out on with no fans and the fact that we cut payroll last offseason with expectations of big crowds I think most of you are going to be disappointed when we are forced to shop in the bargain bin once again.

[brewers888]

I think if you want a good idea of what the free agent market will look like look no further than the current market in the NHL. Most of those free agents are being forced to sign short term deals with only a few guys landing big long term contracts.

[Madhawk23]

I think if you want a good idea of what the free agent market will look like look no further than the current market in the NHL. Most of those free agents are being forced to sign short term deals with only a few guys landing big long term contracts.

 

Couldn't this be a good thing for the Brewers then? Yeah, we may not have a ton of money to spend this offseason, but if we can sign guys to 1 year deals (similar to what we tried to do this past year), then maybe we can get a few decent signings. Also, there's an opportunity for guys to sign 1 year deals with us and get a lot of playing time at certain positions - C (if we get rid of Omar), 1B, 3B and maybe SP. Hopefully we can convince some guys to sign some "prove-it" deals this winter, and then they can go on the market again next winter (when hopefully we get out from under the COVID nightmare) and sign longer term deals.