2021 Free Agents

[TURBO]

Hiura is not a very big target at 1B.

 

Yes, I realize Prince wasn't very tall either, but so far, Hiura is no Prince Fielder.

[Lathund]

I imagine DJ LeMahieu re-signs with the Yankees for more money than the Brewers feel comfortable with, but if the Brewers go after one big name that's who I'd want.

 

But speaking of more realistic 1B/2B/3B players; Tommy LaStella is the left-handed budget version of DJ. His 5.3% (that's not a typo) strikeout rate stands out, and a solid 123 wRC+ over the last two years. A LHH 3B (Or at least a 3B who hits righties well) has to be high up the priority list, and there's not a lot else out there. Hard to predict the financial side of it, but he's someone who makes a lot of sense. Justin Turner is old and will be expensive, but is probably the best available bat out there.

 

I honestly don't really know where else they should spend the money. Simmons and Gregorious are available at SS, but I would imagine they don't want to add fairly big multi-year deals there, and will trust their current and future internal options.

 

On the pitching side, I don't think they should be very active in free agency. Maybe try to find a veteran starter or two a la Brett Anderson on short-term deals. Teams have so many more advanced ways to evaluate players than we do, there has to be some starters out there with "meh" results that the Brewers really like and think they can utilize better. It's beyond me to see who that is; could be a Drew Smyly, or perhaps even Brett Anderson again. Point is,looking at the available pitchers in FA I don't see any names to spend big on other than Bauer, and there's Woodruff and Burnes already in place at the top of the rotation.

 

So my strategy would be to spend whatever free agent money there is (And whatever Hader returns, if he is traded) on hitters. 3B in particular, but anywhere on the infield works. As I mentioned above, I like LaStella, but there are other options. Two IF bats. A couple of veteran pitchers. And beyond that try to do what the Dodgers did in finding/fixing Muncy and Turner, or what the Yankees did with Urshela/Voit etc. I.e what some would call dumpster diving. Post-hype prospects, blocked AAA guys, 40-man roster crunches, whoever becomes expendable when Turner or LeMahieu or Castellanos sign somewhere.

[brewmann04]

I think they need to find another quality arm but total agree about getting a 3rd baseman.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have no issue at all with finding another (preferably left-handed hitting) corner infielder, and handing Gyorko the other spot. There's no way that you're going to find an infielder coming off the season Gyorko just had for $4.5 million going into 2021.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, for all the moves that didn't work out this year, Gyorko did. He graded out fine as a 1B, so if there's a way they can keep him there for his limited cost and bring in a legit 3B bat like Turner, that will go a long way to fixing the lineup, pending some other moves of course.

[shanedog19]

Guarantees:

Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)

Yelich = 14 million

Garcia = 10.5 million

Lindblom = 2.75 million

Suter = 1.5 million

Peralta = 1 million

Total = 45.75 million

 

Arbitration (I don't claim to be an expert on arbitration estimates):

Hader = 5.9 million estimate

Woodruff = 4 million estimate (looks like he's Super Two, could use an expert to help me with this estimate)

Narvaez = 3.27 million estimate

Arcia = 2.95 million estimate

Claudio = 2 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)

Knebel = no offer

Total = 18.12 million

 

Buyouts

Braun = 4 million

Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)

Sogard = 0.5 million

Guessing Gamel is also out (no buyout), but another that might be brought back at a lower price?

Total = 5.5 million

 

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Narvaez, Arcia, Claudio equal 11. So that's 15 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-

Total = 9 million

 

Grand total without Braun = 78.37 million

 

Looks like about 21-22 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?

 

Any reason Vogelbach was left off this list? I would think he would factor into the team's plans based on his performance this year.

[Madhawk23]

I don't see J.D. Martinez opting out but Castellanos is more than likely going to opt out and I would put that one at an 80% chance that he opts out.

 

Of the free agents that I think the Brewers have a chance at signing I like Turner, Profar, and LeMahieu.

 

My off season plan:

 

Profar 3-years $27m

Turner 3-years $57m

Taijuan Walker 6-years $96m (team option for the 5th year option with a buyout of $9m and a mutual option for the 6th year with a buyout of $5m)

 

Released:

Arcia, Claudio, Peterson and Pina

 

Options declined:

Braun and Sogard

 

This should put the payroll after all of the arbitration and pre-arb salaries around $110-115m. This probably won't happen due to COVID and no fans this year but if it is looking like there will be fans next year I wouldn't be surprised if the team goes on a little bit of a spending spree to bring in some excitement for next year especially if this year doesn't end on a high note.

 

I can't imagine any way Stearns is going to throw 3 years and 57M at a guy in Turner that is in his mid 30's. I don't think we are going to have that type of money to spend, and it just doesn't seem like a DS move anyway. And, Walker seems way too risky for a team like the Brewers to throw that type of money at. If we know one thing by now it's that DS is not going to get involved with the top-tier F/A starting pitchers.

 

Profar though would seem to fit well into the profile of a guy that DS loves. Up the middle guys that can play multiple positions, and guys that are heading into their prime years. Profar fits all of those things. Now, the question would be - could he be had at a price that the Brewers would value him at, or will another team overspend for him?

[Warning Track Power]

Marcus Semien is the guy I have my eye on. He’s only one year removed from a MVP-type season and has been a relatively consistent bat for a number of years. Give him 3 years $39m and see what he looks like hitting in front of Yelich.

[Eye Black]

I'm guessing this upcoming offseason goes like last offseason. We'll sit in the weeds, wait to see gets left behind, and sign up a few bargains to fill the many holes in this club. Doubt we'll see a big signing - not with so many question marks.

 

Sadly, there won't be any impact players from the minors coming up. I'm more comfortable with the pitching staff than the hitters. Hitters have just struggled. The thing we are going to have to hope happens is good players having bad years rebound (Narvaez, Yelich, Garcia), and young hitters mature and figure some stuff out (Hiura, Urias). But that still leaves a lot of holes in the lineup.

I agree with reilly’s assessment, and I expect the part about sitting in the weeds and waiting to see who doesn’t get a big multi-year offer to be the case again this year. Next year is Yelich’s last at $14 million (he jumps up to $26 million annually starting in 2022). I am hoping they use that opportunity to give a decent one year “prove it” contract to someone who doesn’t get the multi-year offers they desired. In that past couple of years we’ve seen that happen to players like Yasmani Grandal and Didi Gregorius (who the Brewers reportedly finished runner up to signing last offseason).

[Madhawk23]

Marcus Semien is the guy I have my eye on. He’s only one year removed from a MVP-type season and has been a relatively consistent bat for a number of years. Give him 3 years $39m and see what he looks like hitting in front of Yelich.

 

While I like the idea of Semian, I do have my doubts on whether he's worth the 3 years 39M - at least for a team like the Brewers? He's been a solid offensive player throughout his career, but that 2019 season really sticks out as somewhat of an anomaly. In fact, I think we are starting to see that with a bunch of guys around the league who had career years last year (see Narvaez) due to the "juiced" baseball. So, that would scare me a bit with a guy like Semian and giving him a 3 year deal like that.

[Warning Track Power]

Marcus Semien is the guy I have my eye on. He’s only one year removed from a MVP-type season and has been a relatively consistent bat for a number of years. Give him 3 years $39m and see what he looks like hitting in front of Yelich.

 

While I like the idea of Semian, I do have my doubts on whether he's worth the 3 years 39M - at least for a team like the Brewers? He's been a solid offensive player throughout his career, but that 2019 season really sticks out as somewhat of an anomaly. In fact, I think we are starting to see that with a bunch of guys around the league who had career years last year (see Narvaez) due to the "juiced" baseball. So, that would scare me a bit with a guy like Semian and giving him a 3 year deal like that.

You raise a very good point.

 

If I am the Brewers I look to surround Yelich and Hiura with high contact and high average type players like Jeff McNeil of the Mets. Not the sexiest of players in terms of power, but I think this type of player is very overlooked in the current game and may be a key to unlocking the teamwide Brewers slumps of 2020. Essentially, be what Eric Sogard was supposed to be (and never really was).

[brewerfan82]

[sarcasm]I don't know... Sogard is an odd year player, might want to give him another shot[/sarcasm]

 

Career Splits - .266/.333/.375/.707 in odd years, .199/.275/.257/.531 in even years

Last 4 Years - .284/.369/.426/.795 in odd years, .175/.263/.226/.489 in even years

 

[Madhawk23]

Well, Semian just went yard in their playoff game today, so maybe I might change my tune on him!! Ha.

[Eye Black]

Below are a couple of soon to be Free Agents I'd be interested in if the price is right.

 

Jurickson Profar: The 27 year old former #1 prospect in baseball is a switch hitter that can play both the infield and outfield. I think he'd be able to cover a utility role nicely, and offer them a switch hitter which is direction I think they'll trend this offseason. His underlying numbers suggest that last year with the A's was a fluke, and what we are seeing this year is closer to the hitter we can expect him to be going forward. I think he'll unlock another level of power in his swing over the next couple of years, and Miller Park (err..AmFam Field) would be a good place for him to see that power actualize.

 

 

Marcus Stroman: I know this isn't their M.O., but adding Stroman to an already solid rotation would be a big boost. I do acknowledge there is a lot of risk involved in going after the top tier of pitchers in free agency, so both the price and their confidence in him maintaining his previous results would be need to be good. I don't have a good sense for how much money or number of years Stroman will command as a free agent.

[TURBO]

Hasn't Stroman been nothing other than a disappointment though based on his projections? I don't find him as a very exciting add. Lots of injury history and under performing...

 

I'm all good with Profar though!

[nate82]

 

Marcus Stroman: I know this isn't their M.O., but adding Stroman to an already solid rotation would be a big boost. I do acknowledge there is a lot of risk involved in going after the top tier of pitchers in free agency, so both the price and their confidence in him maintaining his previous results would be need to be good. I don't have a good sense for how much money or number of years Stroman will command as a free agent.

 

I believe Stroman and Bauer will sign with the Red Sox this off season.

[3and2Fastball]

I think the best we can hope for is a 1 year contract similar to what we did with Grandal.

 

The one guy I’d love to see that with is Trevor Bauer. If we could go Bauer, Woodruff, Burnes with D Williams and Hader out of the pen Etc, that is a pitching staff that can make a run.

 

Give Bauer one year $38 million or whatever. Roll that dice, Mark!

[brewmann04]

The Brewers need a full time 3rd baseman and another starter and add a contact hitter to this lineup.

[Eye Black]

Hasn't Stroman been nothing other than a disappointment though based on his projections? I don't find him as a very exciting add. Lots of injury history and under performing...

 

I'm all good with Profar though!

Profar seems to be starting to put it all together, and his splits as a switch hitter this year are pretty even. Since 2018 he’s spread his playing time over 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, and LF. He’s at an age (just 27) where a true All-Star type breakout season could still be on the horizon. As I mentioned in the previous post, I think he’ll hit for decent power going forward. I’ll be curious to see if San Diego makes a strong play to keep him, since AJ Preller has known him since he was a teenager and traded for him a year ago.

[MrTPlush]

I am sorry, but Stroman or Bauer are not going to get the job done...and Bauer would probably never come here. They need to get bats for this line up. Part of that is praying Hiura/Yelich rebound...but we need to have a more relevant offense on a daily basis.

 

SS should be an interesting one. Arcia actually ended the season with his highest OPS ever. I think that is more luck of ending on a hot streak in a short season than anything else. I don't care to see any more of Luis Urias unless he simply gets a chance because of injury or sucky play by others next year. If I want to watch someone play average SS and have zero power I am sure we can find a forum member to do it. As much as I think Stearns doesn't like Arcia I just don't know if we will find a worthy replacement. I am guessing will improve offensively easier in other places and thus be stuck with Arcia again.

 

I am not sure why Profar is getting brought up so much...are we giving up on Hiura? Profar is a terrible SS and I think he is even worse at 3B. He played 3B/SS in 2018, but there is a reason he hasn't played there since. Considering Hiura is already on the field pretending to play defense I don't think we are going to add another.

[Lathund]

Add me to the list of skeptics on Profar. Looking at plate discipline and statcast data he's not doing anything really different from the past, simply getting better results due to a higher BABIP. Now if he was signed to take over the role that Sogard/Peterson/Mathias had this season, and the deal reflected that, I'd be very happy with that and would see the upside in it. I think he'll get paid a fair bit more than that though.

[Oxy]

Jake Lamb could be had for cheap, would fill a need and could actually be really good (or really terrible, of course, but that's just about everybody)

[pacopete4]

Jake Lamb does make some sense. He’d be like a lot of players we tried this season though. Keep the expectation low.

[brewcrewdue80]

Posted this in the Plan thread. Asdrubal Cabrera to play 1b. Started 23 games this year for the Nationals and at age 35 for 2021 should be someone had for under 10mil. guessing 5-7.5mil on a 1yr deal. Maybe you go 2/12mil with 2nd an option at 7.5mil but buy out at 1.5. Making 4.5 next season. Splits for career show he's a solid #5/6 hitter(terrible cleanup) Not 1 career season 120ks+ So puts ball in play.

 

Yelich/Hiura/Vogelbach will all likely then see time at DH.

 

I dunno on RPs with Williams' emergence. Team added Rasmussen, Topa, and Feyereisen to their depth. One of Peralta/Houser will be there I expect. but maybe even Lindblom takes a seat back in RP. So not really a big thing I'd go out a grab. I'm sure there will be someone added.

 

Kevin Pillar would have to be my OF utility I guess you target. Again there's a lot of payroll invested there, do you really add some 6-11mil contract there?

 

 

Realmuto is going to be a big contract and well outside Stearn's payroll abilities.

 

I don't really see a lot more attractive options. Profar seems redundant unless you rid yourself of Urias/Arcia during the offseason. I also gotta think Profar is in that A.Garcia type contract but higher. So, 11mil+ a year. He's a 2b spread out on the field, but no 3b/SS play since 2018 and gotta wonder where does he fit on the Brewers at 11+mil a year?

 

Bauer-far too expensive.

 

Think we're just skating by with a boring offseason. Aside from what the team gives on Extensions to Woodruff or Burnes.

 

I'm really all-in on Cabrera being 1b for next season or 2 even. Just a not great but not bad bat.

[HiAndTight]

I am sorry, but Stroman or Bauer are not going to get the job done...and Bauer would probably never come here. They need to get bats for this line up. Part of that is praying Hiura/Yelich rebound...but we need to have a more relevant offense on a daily basis.

 

SS should be an interesting one. Arcia actually ended the season with his highest OPS ever. I think that is more luck of ending on a hot streak in a short season than anything else. I don't care to see any more of Luis Urias unless he simply gets a chance because of injury or sucky play by others next year. If I want to watch someone play average SS and have zero power I am sure we can find a forum member to do it. As much as I think Stearns doesn't like Arcia I just don't know if we will find a worthy replacement. I am guessing will improve offensively easier in other places and thus be stuck with Arcia again.

 

I am not sure why Profar is getting brought up so much...are we giving up on Hiura? Profar is a terrible SS and I think he is even worse at 3B. He played 3B/SS in 2018, but there is a reason he hasn't played there since. Considering Hiura is already on the field pretending to play defense I don't think we are going to add another.

 

 

 

The kid was still just 22 years old, a top 20 prospect coming into 2019 and having a good Spring Training when he broke his hamate bone, a notoriously tough bone to break for a hitter to come back from and regain their swing that year.

 

It'd just seem incredibly foolish to move on from one of the few young talents we have and one who plays a premier position because he's been bad in a year when the whole team was bad.

 

The Dodgers may be able to throw away 23 year old SS's with his potential...the Brewers sure can't. Lets at least let the kid play a full healthy season before throwing him out. I think people forget, he was the top 2B prospect in the game and came with a 70 hit tool.

 

https://data.prospectslive.com/index.php/2018/07/18/digging-data-the-power-potential-of-luis-urias/

 

 

On a team that ran out Sogard, Holt, Smoak, Morrison...among others, the only guys I'd give more rope than this kid would be Yelich and Hiura.