When is it time to worry about Keston Hiura?

[djoctagone]

Changed title to match the one you created about Christian Yelich.

thread titles what you want

[monty57]

Bellinger is striking out 17% of the time. You know who doubles that? Keston at 34%. If he didn't pop a few out of the park this year, the numbers would be even more alarming as he's only walking 7% of time as well.

 

You know who also nearly doubles that? Javy Baez at 32.9%, with a batting line of .198/.233/.348/.581. Kris Bryant is at 28.3% K rate, with a line of .195/.283/.301/.584

 

Meanwhile, the Giants have one of the best offenses in baseball, and the Marlins will probably be in the playoffs while the Nationals watch from home.

 

Small sample sizes in a crazy season like this aren't very meaningful.

[thebruce44]

Bellinger is striking out 17% of the time. You know who doubles that? Keston at 34%. If he didn't pop a few out of the park this year, the numbers would be even more alarming as he's only walking 7% of time as well.

 

What other at bats and accomplishments should we remove to make the situation even more alarming? How about his draft position or all of 2019?

[RollieTime]

Hiura has 5 years of control left after this season and just turned 24 years old. Give the man a little slack. Even if he could be a .230/.330/.800 hitter and pop 30-35 homers a year as a 6 or 7 hole hitter, he will have value. He might not be the superstar in the future we all hoped he would, but he is certainly a capable hitter. I think that’s a baseline of what his floor will be moving forward with an extremely high ceiling.

 

This is such a weird season as it is. He could get hot for a couple games and get 6 hits and his numbers would look much better quite quickly. I think the DH is here to stay and the Brewers would have no issue slotting Hiura into the DH spot and being able to sign a bat like LeMahieu to slot into the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hiura getting work in at 1B this offseason and making the transition there for 2021. Allowing the Brewers to put Urias at SS or 2B full time and filling the other spot with a free agent.

[owbc]

I don't know where the idea comes from that the offense is 'horrible', other than the eye test, but by the eye test there are ~25 'horrible' offenses in MLB. Some seem to forget that overall batting numbers are some of the lowest in the history of MLB. We're in the middle of a dead ball era. Strikeouts and batting average no longer matter and a .730 OPS from a 2B is quite good.

 

The numbers say that the Brewers have the best offense in the NL Central, especially if you weight toward recent performance. Keston Hiura is batting well above average for his position. .730 OPS v. league average 2B of. .687

[Fear The Chorizo]

We're in the middle of a dead ball era.

 

It's not so much a dead ball era as it is a quickly thrown together season that doesn't allow for any in-game video analysis that many hitters would lean on in the clubhouse between at bats. Great players in MLB having bad seasons have said as much. Not having that information readily available makes it more difficult to discern how hitters are being pitched or how a pitcher is setting up at bats - that leads to hitters not being as selective on specific pitches or locations.

 

In general, throw 2020 stats out with the bathwater and worry about how players are developing/trending around this time next year, after what is hopefully a more routine regular season.

[owbc]

We're in the middle of a dead ball era.

 

It's not so much a dead ball era as it is a quickly thrown together season that doesn't allow for any in-game video analysis that many hitters would lean on in the clubhouse between at bats. Great players in MLB having bad seasons have said as much. Not having that information readily available makes it more difficult to discern how hitters are being pitched or how a pitcher is setting up at bats - that leads to hitters not being as selective on specific pitches or locations.

 

In general, throw 2020 stats out with the bathwater and worry about how players are developing/trending around this time next year, after what is hopefully a more routine regular season.

 

It's not like 2020 is that much of an anomaly, it's just a continuation of the trend that was already happening for the better part of a decade. There might be a slight uptick in offense in 2021 but I wouldn't expect things to return to 2019 levels unless there are rule changes.

[Underachiever]

I get frustrated with everything being reduced to a number. Hiura's numbers are above average for a second baseman? Okay, the Brewers aren't looking for average 2nd base production from him. They probably aren't getting league average numbers from other positions that generally have more pop, like third base. Brewers are somewhere in the .600s at that position, so it points out the need for the Brewers to get production from elsewhere. I don't think Hiura was brought in to be an offensive equal of Starlin Castro, who he trails in OPS, again, if you are using OPS as your benchmark. And there is no way to spin positive about his strikeouts. I think, based on where the Brewers bat him, they think he is their second-best bat. Viewed that way, is a .730 OPS good?

 

So, yes, I'm concerned about Hiura. That doesn't mean trade him, bench him, cut him, or send him to Appleton, but I thought he would be better than this. I'm not excited to see him at the plate or that he is coming up in the next inning. I was last year.

[vetter]

I don't know where the idea comes from that the offense is 'horrible', other than the eye test, but by the eye test there are ~25 'horrible' offenses in MLB. Some seem to forget that overall batting numbers are some of the lowest in the history of MLB. We're in the middle of a dead ball era. Strikeouts and batting average no longer matter and a .730 OPS from a 2B is quite good.

 

The numbers say that the Brewers have the best offense in the NL Central, especially if you weight toward recent performance. Keston Hiura is batting well above average for his position. .730 OPS v. league average 2B of. .687

 

I'd be curious what those numbers look like if you eliminate the two bloodbaths against Detroit and St. Louis. By August 31st, the Brewers had only scored 135 runs, third last in the NL. If you plug the numbers, the team average across the NL was 160.3 runs scored (St. Louis not factored in because they played so few games).

 

If you take away the 19 runs against Detroit and 18 against St. Louis this month and substitute 3.5 runs for each of those two games, they're sitting on 206 runs scored while the NL average is 264.9 runs scored. Even with those two games (236 runs scored as of September 24) we're still looking at 28 runs below the NL average.

 

By comparison, Pittsburgh has scored 202 runs this season. So take away the two Detroit and St. Louis games and our offense is right on par with Pittsburgh.

[thebruce44]

I don't know where the idea comes from that the offense is 'horrible', other than the eye test, but by the eye test there are ~25 'horrible' offenses in MLB. Some seem to forget that overall batting numbers are some of the lowest in the history of MLB. We're in the middle of a dead ball era. Strikeouts and batting average no longer matter and a .730 OPS from a 2B is quite good.

 

The numbers say that the Brewers have the best offense in the NL Central, especially if you weight toward recent performance. Keston Hiura is batting well above average for his position. .730 OPS v. league average 2B of. .687

 

I'd be curious what those numbers look like if you eliminate the two bloodbaths against Detroit and St. Louis. By August 31st, the Brewers had only scored 135 runs, third last in the NL. If you plug the numbers, the team average across the NL was 160.3 runs scored (St. Louis not factored in because they played so few games).

 

If you take away the 19 runs against Detroit and 18 against St. Louis this month and substitute 3.5 runs for each of those two games, they're sitting on 206 runs scored while the NL average is 264.9 runs scored. Even with those two games (236 runs scored as of September 24) we're still looking at 28 runs below the NL average.

 

By comparison, Pittsburgh has scored 202 runs this season. So take away the two Detroit and St. Louis games and our offense is right on par with Pittsburgh.

 

If you are going to go down the path where you take away our two best games when comparing us with the rest of the league, at the very least, shouldn't you also take away outliers from the other teams too to be consistent? Just to be clear, I don't condone this type of analysis regardless.

 

EDIT: I went ahead and took out Pitt's best two offensive games and replaced them with 3.5 runs. That drops them to 184 runs on the year. They have also played 1 more game than us so far. So by the parameters of your analysis we have 206 runs scored to Pitt's 184, with Pitt playing one extra game.

[vetter]

I don't know where the idea comes from that the offense is 'horrible', other than the eye test, but by the eye test there are ~25 'horrible' offenses in MLB. Some seem to forget that overall batting numbers are some of the lowest in the history of MLB. We're in the middle of a dead ball era. Strikeouts and batting average no longer matter and a .730 OPS from a 2B is quite good.

 

The numbers say that the Brewers have the best offense in the NL Central, especially if you weight toward recent performance. Keston Hiura is batting well above average for his position. .730 OPS v. league average 2B of. .687

 

I'd be curious what those numbers look like if you eliminate the two bloodbaths against Detroit and St. Louis. By August 31st, the Brewers had only scored 135 runs, third last in the NL. If you plug the numbers, the team average across the NL was 160.3 runs scored (St. Louis not factored in because they played so few games).

 

If you take away the 19 runs against Detroit and 18 against St. Louis this month and substitute 3.5 runs for each of those two games, they're sitting on 206 runs scored while the NL average is 264.9 runs scored. Even with those two games (236 runs scored as of September 24) we're still looking at 28 runs below the NL average.

 

By comparison, Pittsburgh has scored 202 runs this season. So take away the two Detroit and St. Louis games and our offense is right on par with Pittsburgh.

 

If you are going to go down the path where you take away our two best games when comparing us with the rest of the league, at the very least, shouldn't you also take away outliers from the other teams too to be consistent? Just to be clear, I don't condone this type of analysis regardless.

 

EDIT: I went ahead and took out Pitt's best two offensive games and replaced them with 3.5 runs. That drops them to 184 runs on the year. They have also played 1 more game than us so far. So by the parameters of your analysis we have 206 runs scored to Pitt's 184, with Pitt playing one extra game.

 

Fair enough regarding the Pittsburgh comparison. But the fact remains, this team's offense is and has been at the very bottom in run production all season. We're still at 28 runs below NL league average. However our OPS and other batting stats may compare to other teams, it hasn't translated to runs.

 

Also, 19 and 18 (37) runs scored are pretty extraordinary blips. For example, the two highest scoring games Cincinnati had this year were 12 and 10 (22). St. Louis' two highest scoring games were 16 and 12 (28). Pittsburgh 13 and 12 (25). Chicago Cubs 12 and 10 (22).

 

It further skews what our actual per game run production has been over the course of the season.

[timpep]

Saying we have the best offense in the central brings me small comfort when the bottom 5 teams offensively are literally just a list of the teams in our division.

[HiAndTight]

I get frustrated with everything being reduced to a number. Hiura's numbers are above average for a second baseman? Okay, the Brewers aren't looking for average 2nd base production from him. They probably aren't getting league average numbers from other positions that generally have more pop, like third base. Brewers are somewhere in the .600s at that position, so it points out the need for the Brewers to get production from elsewhere. I don't think Hiura was brought in to be an offensive equal of Starlin Castro, who he trails in OPS, again, if you are using OPS as your benchmark. And there is no way to spin positive about his strikeouts. I think, based on where the Brewers bat him, they think he is their second-best bat. Viewed that way, is a .730 OPS good?

 

So, yes, I'm concerned about Hiura. That doesn't mean trade him, bench him, cut him, or send him to Appleton, but I thought he would be better than this. I'm not excited to see him at the plate or that he is coming up in the next inning. I was last year.

 

 

The question isn't do the Brewers need Hiura to be better because others are struggling, the question is about Hiura alone. And Castro has played in 16 games and has 60 AB's(63 PA's).

 

Here's the bottom line, he's just turned 24 and even during his struggles in his 2nd year, he's performing alright relative to the average 2nd basemen. That's the point. Not that we brought him in to be average or to compensate for a lack of production from 3rd base.

 

It's about how concerning are his struggles this year. That's where the historically bad numbers, his age and experience come into play. It's got nothing to do with trying to put a positive "spin" on his strikeouts, but rather evaluating how worried people should be about his ability to hit.

[SomewhereInTime]

I get frustrated with everything being reduced to a number. Hiura's numbers are above average for a second baseman? Okay, the Brewers aren't looking for average 2nd base production from him. They probably aren't getting league average numbers from other positions that generally have more pop, like third base. Brewers are somewhere in the .600s at that position, so it points out the need for the Brewers to get production from elsewhere. I don't think Hiura was brought in to be an offensive equal of Starlin Castro, who he trails in OPS, again, if you are using OPS as your benchmark. And there is no way to spin positive about his strikeouts. I think, based on where the Brewers bat him, they think he is their second-best bat. Viewed that way, is a .730 OPS good?

 

So, yes, I'm concerned about Hiura. That doesn't mean trade him, bench him, cut him, or send him to Appleton, but I thought he would be better than this. I'm not excited to see him at the plate or that he is coming up in the next inning. I was last year.

 

 

The question isn't do the Brewers need Hiura to be better because others are struggling, the question is about Hiura alone. And Castro has played in 16 games and has 60 AB's(63 PA's).

 

Here's the bottom line, he's just turned 24 and even during his struggles in his 2nd year, he's performing alright relative to the average 2nd basemen. That's the point. Not that we brought him in to be average or to compensate for a lack of production from 3rd base.

 

It's about how concerning are his struggles this year. That's where the historically bad numbers, his age and experience come into play. It's got nothing to do with trying to put a positive "spin" on his strikeouts, but rather evaluating how worried people should be about his ability to hit.

 

What good is his bat performing slightly better than the average 2nd baseman when he is an absolute butcher in the field? If they're going to continue this charade of trotting him out at 2nd base he needs to be one of the best in baseball offensively at the position to have value.

[dlk9s]

Bellinger is striking out 17% of the time. You know who doubles that? Keston at 34%. If he didn't pop a few out of the park this year, the numbers would be even more alarming as he's only walking 7% of time as well.

 

Good thing he did, then!

[MrTPlush]

Last year Hiura smashed 23 doubles in just 314 ABs, right now he has 4 in 203 ABs. That is like...beyond bad. Hiura has been a pretty big doubles hitter throughout his entire baseball life, yet can't even buy one anymore.

[nectarsis]

Last year Hiura smashed 23 doubles in just 314 ABs, right now he has 4 in 203 ABs. That is like...beyond bad. Hiura has been a pretty big doubles hitter throughout his entire baseball life, yet can't even buy one anymore.

 

...and sadly leading the team in HRs, and RBIs, shows how flat the season is.

[KeithStone53151]

I would be more concerned about Hiura if he looks similar next year. This is a weird year, it seems the Brewers as a whole generally didn't handle the stop and start weird year very well. Some did, other teams had more players really produce. If around mid May next year, he has similar ratios...I'll get concerned.

[SoCalBrewfan]

It's so tough to evaluate any player this year. In normal seasons, players will have a terrible month but it's buried in the middle so all we notice is that they look bad but their early season stats hide the depth of the badness. I'm sure we could find really good players with stretches as bad as Hiura in an otherwise solid season.

 

I think this has led to premature player moves, too. Brock Holt looked atrocious with us, but he seems to have rebounded to his norms. Similarly, Vogelbach's season stats last I checked were a dead ringer for his career norms, it's just that Seattle and Toronto got his bad days and we've had his good ones. I mean, players look lost for full 162 game seasons and then rebound.

 

Plus he's young. Tim Anderson at 24 had an 81 OPS+ and 162 Ks and terrible defense, was below replacement value after a solid rookie season. He was better at 25 but still not great (.281 OBP!), then finally broke out last year. The White Sox are surely glad that they stuck with him. Hiura is a key asset for this franchise, so I'd give him chances. But sure, maybe he will be a Ben Grieve, bursting on the scene and then never measuring up to those initial expectations? As with any young player, what adjustments he makes after things get tough will matter a lot for his long term future.

[tigerbrew]

Way too early to worry about Hiura just like it was too early to worry about Burnes last season. This is only Hiura's second season in MLB.

 

Hiura could be like Burnes, bad in his sophomore season and great in his third season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Way too early to worry about Hiura just like it was too early to worry about Burnes last season. This is only Hiura's second season in MLB.

 

Hiura could be like Burnes, bad in his sophomore season and great in his third season.

 

Overlooked about Burnes is that he got Lasix surgery in the offseason. Maybe the entire Brewer lineup should call the guy that did it. They sure looked like they couldn't see the ball this season.