Packers 2020 team discussion

[adambr2]

With the cap situation being the way it is for 2021, I think they'll have to be really creative to improve for 2021. I do think that likely means a trade.

 

I don't know if that's Watt or someone else - Ideally you're looking for someone in the last year or two of a rookie deal, even if that means giving up a 1st+.

 

If they are really committed to the last few years of Rodgers' career, they have got to start getting involved when Yannick Ngakoue type players start becoming available. These little supplementary moves (Snacks, Tramon, Veldheer) are great for aiding your depth, but we are going to have to do a little more to win a championship.

[Fear The Chorizo]

To get better for next year defensively, they simply need guys like Savage and Gary to take the next step. I think the MLBers they drafted/picked up are an overall improvement on where they were as a group in 2019 with Martinez making 200 tackles 8 yards downfield, but if they can find an impact player at that spot it would help. CB#2 will be a key hole to fill, which might come from inhouse personnel or the draft depending on what defensive scheme they will be running. I'm hoping a new defensive coordinator is brought in. What they really could use is a quality 3-4 defensive lineman to pair with Clark - Keke has shown flashes but was often injured and likely still a rotational player at this point. Having another stud upfront to help in the run game and improve the non-blitz pass rush would be key.

 

I mean, the Packers had the top scoring offense in the league this year so there's probably nowhere to go but regressing a bit...however they can return most all of what got them that result next year, so mild regression isn't the end of the world as long as they're still elite and the defense continues to improve. Heck, if Bakhtiari doesn't blow out his knee in practice Green Bay is probably in the super bowl right now because TB doesn't generate near as much pressure as they did on Sunday. Overall GB's pass catching corps all had monster years, and MVS/Lazard seem to have taken a solid step forward to being good secondary options. If Tyler Ervin can't stay healthy, they need to upgrade the slot receiver position in the draft or FA bargain bin. The TE position group looks to be really solid with Tonyan, Deguara, etc... Oline will likely see Linsley leave and Bakh open the year on short term IR, but they've got depth there to keep that unit solid and will likely add to it via the draft, too.

 

They need to address special teams as well - likely starting with a coaching staff overhaul - for once I'd like to see a Packer team where I'm not cringing every time they have to kick off, return a kick, punt, return a punt, etc....where that unit is a strength that can win them a game or two instead of losing them or making life more difficult for offense AND defense basically every time they take the field.

[homer]

Smith Bros took a big step back this year. Unfortunately they only have a replacement for one of them.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Preston Smith lining up as a CB more than once tells me about everything I need to know about his regression. I've seen the same thing said about Z multiple places and I feel like it was more of a mantra that caught on than reality. He was second team all-pro, finished the year with a 77 on PFF, 13 sacks (admittedly not a great metric), 23 hits, 12 TFL...He was the only 10/20/4TO player in the league besides Aaron Donald. SOME regression from last year was almost a guarantee based on how good he was in '19.

 

Preston is all but gone, but Pettine better be.

 

As a side note, Blake Martinez did have a nice season in New York. Maybe the player wasn't the problem.

[PeaveyFury]

Preston Smith lining up as a CB more than once tells me about everything I need to know about his regression.

 

Is that the player, or the stupidity of the scheme? They stopped doing that about halfway through the year, and unsurprisingly, Preston's production increased significantly. He's a pass rusher, not a coverage guy.

 

But, probably to your point, his cap number is problematic. He needs to restructure or he will indeed be gone.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Preston Smith lining up as a CB more than once tells me about everything I need to know about his regression. I've seen the same thing said about Z multiple places and I feel like it was more of a mantra that caught on than reality. He was second team all-pro, finished the year with a 77 on PFF, 13 sacks (admittedly not a great metric), 23 hits, 12 TFL...He was the only 10/20/4TO player in the league besides Aaron Donald. SOME regression from last year was almost a guarantee based on how good he was in '19.

 

Preston is all but gone, but Pettine better be.

 

I wonder if their current front 7 personnel gives them an opportunity for a shift back to a 4-3 scheme, assuming Preston is indeed gone for next season. I'd think both Z and Gary could readily transition to DEs, Clark is going to excel no matter what on the interior, and the rest of their D lineman worth keeping around could also be fine as 4-3 DTs. Linebackerwise, they're younger and more athletic and could add to make a 4-3 fit better.

 

To be honest most 4-3 defenses now have a glorified safety playing one of the outside backer positions now with all the multiple receiver sets - I definitely don't want them to force a new defensive coordinator hire to be only a 3-4 guy based on their current personnel in the building, because I think they have enough positional flexibility to make a 4-3 work if it means bringing in the right coordinator should they decide to make a change I think we almost all want to see happen.

[GAME05]

Some time ago I'd looked for what Rodgers would be worth in a trade and I only saw a pre-season comment saying he'd be worth a 1st and a 3rd. But that was also after last year when some folks thought he was declining and not headed for an MVP year.

 

Raiders or Indianapolis seem to be the two places Rodgers would most want to go and who would trade for him.

[pacopete4]

How do you get Watt and stay under the cap? Trade and restructure his deal? He’s and easy upgrade to our pass rush if healthy.

[PeaveyFury]

How do you get Watt and stay under the cap? Trade and restructure his deal? He’s and easy upgrade to our pass rush if healthy.

 

Yes. He's got one year left on his deal, with zero bonuses still due. You can easily restructure to reduce his $17m base salary and extend him by a couple of years.

 

The Packers certainly have the picks to make that type of deal if they want. Not sure what an estimated cost would be....

[Fear The Chorizo]

How do you get Watt and stay under the cap? Trade and restructure his deal? He’s and easy upgrade to our pass rush if healthy.

 

Trade them Rodgers for Watt and some of the other draft picks Houston picks up when they trade Watson....not saying that's likely at all to happen or it would be the right move as a Packer fan, but it could be the most likely way to get Watt in Green Bay without gutting the roster. It would take serious cap gymnastics to have both Rodgers and Watt on the Packers for 2021 with all the other contracts they have on the roster.

 

This would be a more likely trade scenario next offseason if I was the Packer front office and it was apparent they were set to move on from Rodgers - which I think would be a mistake. There are already multiple good QBs in their prime looking to get traded this offseason. I'm 99% certain Rodgers is back in Green Bay next year, but 2022 is 50/50 unless his contract does get restructured. After the season Rodgers has had, I'd be more inclined to try and restructure/extend his deal and hope Love develops into an asset that could be traded ala Garrapolo for draft capital or a roster hole filler a few offseasons from now.

 

Edit - if Watt is willing to do a significant restructure, as Peavey pointed out GB could probably get it done...but they'd still need to get creative without risking seriously diminishing other spots of the roster. The other significant aspect is sorting out how much Watt has left in the tank as a 32 yr old, injury-plagued player - if he can stay healthy he's still a difference maker in the DL and would be a great sidekick to Clark on the interior.

[PeaveyFury]

I think that there's a lot of possibility with Watt- hometown team, publicly frustrated with Houston's management, and willingness/desire to play for a team with a legit chance to win the title. I'd think that if the Packers were interested and could find a palatable draft pick cost, they could agree to a deal with Watt that got him here and addressed the cap concern.

[homer]

Yeah I'm not all that jazzed about Watt. As mentioned, he's 32 and has a pretty lengthy injury history. Not sure it's worth the cost.

[Mr Southpaw]

Houston has made some bad trades lately! Why not make another.

[PeaveyFury]

Houston has made some bad trades lately! Why not make another.

 

It really is too bad that they canned everyone before we could take advantage, right?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah I'm not all that jazzed about Watt. As mentioned, he's 32 and has a pretty lengthy injury history. Not sure it's worth the cost.

 

I agree and would have the same reservations, but that's what makes it more likely I think. Someone like Khalil Mack from a few years ago probably isn't attainable. If it's someone with some question marks, but with a chance to still play very good football, and on an expiring or soon to expire deal, it's less difficult to acquire them. It's basically known at this point he doesn't want to be in Houston. I doubt it even takes a first to get him, whoever does it.

[PinaMadness]

Doesn't Miami have all of Houston's draft picks for the next 19 years though?

[PeaveyFury]

Doesn't Miami have all of Houston's draft picks for the next 19 years though?

 

All the more reason they might be willing to move Watt- gain draft capital they've lost.

[HiAndTight]

To get better for next year defensively, they simply need guys like Savage and Gary to take the next step. I think the MLBers they drafted/picked up are an overall improvement on where they were as a group in 2019 with Martinez making 200 tackles 8 yards downfield, but if they can find an impact player at that spot it would help. CB#2 will be a key hole to fill, which might come from inhouse personnel or the draft depending on what defensive scheme they will be running. I'm hoping a new defensive coordinator is brought in. What they really could use is a quality 3-4 defensive lineman to pair with Clark - Keke has shown flashes but was often injured and likely still a rotational player at this point. Having another stud upfront to help in the run game and improve the non-blitz pass rush would be key.

 

I mean, the Packers had the top scoring offense in the league this year so there's probably nowhere to go but regressing a bit...however they can return most all of what got them that result next year, so mild regression isn't the end of the world as long as they're still elite and the defense continues to improve. Heck, if Bakhtiari doesn't blow out his knee in practice Green Bay is probably in the super bowl right now because TB doesn't generate near as much pressure as they did on Sunday. Overall GB's pass catching corps all had monster years, and MVS/Lazard seem to have taken a solid step forward to being good secondary options. If Tyler Ervin can't stay healthy, they need to upgrade the slot receiver position in the draft or FA bargain bin. The TE position group looks to be really solid with Tonyan, Deguara, etc... Oline will likely see Linsley leave and Bakh open the year on short term IR, but they've got depth there to keep that unit solid and will likely add to it via the draft, too.

 

They need to address special teams as well - likely starting with a coaching staff overhaul - for once I'd like to see a Packer team where I'm not cringing every time they have to kick off, return a kick, punt, return a punt, etc....where that unit is a strength that can win them a game or two instead of losing them or making life more difficult for offense AND defense basically every time they take the field.

 

I agree with most of this, but on the few things I don't.

 

Keke

He missed the last game after getting what must have been a pretty serious concussion. But otherwise, he was healthy and really developed into a very good player vs both the run and the pass. I believe that was the only injury issue he had. And I still think Blake Martinez is a really solid MLB'er and better than anyone we had...which is not to say we should have matched that salary, but he was outstanding this year when they had Davlin Tomlinson(whom the Packers tried to pry away from them before the deadline).

 

So I would still agree, another starter on the DL would be idea. Christian Barmore out of Alabama would be just a perfect pick. Coming out after his Soph year so he hasn't really broken out yet, 6'5, 310 and can get into the backfield and really disrupt. If you put 3 really good DL in front of Martin and Barnes.

 

The OL-Losing Bahk was just an absolute gut punch. I agree we're playing on Sunday with him. He's capable of taking a guy like JPP and shutting him out WITHOUT help and allowing the whole line to slide.

 

Turner is not at LT and I think he's at best a serviceable RT as long as you don't fall behind and get into a situation where he needs to pass block every play.

 

So while I'd hope that the freakishly talented Yosh Nijman is ready to go, if a good Tackle fell to the Packers in round 1, I'd go that route(not to harp on 'Bama) but a guy like Leatherwood...he could start at LT and then slide over to RT and possibly man that position for 10 years.

 

 

Rodgers was pressured 22 vs Tampa. You need to make sure you can block the edges, get pressure on the QB and of course have a good QB before you worry about anything else. So either spot would be fine. Linsley, even under the best possible circumstances is likely gone. That'll hurt, but I think we can adjust to that. Interior is always easier to fix than Outside.

 

As for the secondary, I'm willing to give King a tiny mulligan for this game. Bad back...and bring him back on a cheap deal, but CB is an obvious need. I like King because he's a ball hawk and teams will not be throwing at Alexander, but I don't know if his terrible performance was 100 pct him or 50 him, 25 playing at less than full health and the last 25 Pettine's stupid calls.

 

 

Two other area's I'd look at, one you touch on. That Tyler Ervin role that was non-existant after he got hurt but for a few fakes to Austin this year, Curtis Samuel was a RB at OSU and is a WR'er now. He's built like a back with 4.3 speed and a FA. Probably too expensive, but they should view that as a starter.

 

And finally, someone asked who could we have picked that would have helped us out yesterday. There weren't many options, but one I could come up with was Jeremy Chinn from Carolina. He's a hybrid safety who can really run, is long and can play the run. A bigger Raven Greene(who we know we cannot count on).

 

 

ST's goes without saying, but I think if you are drafting 10 guys, you should improve your ST's as a result.

 

So my priorities are;

1-OT who can fill in for Bahk and potentially start there or at RT in the future.

2-DL who can help Clark and an emerging Keke.

3-If you know your offense changes significantly if Ervin is out, treat that position with a bit more urgency. You can find someone in the 5th round who can contribute early in that role. That can be a WR'er, but it can also be one who's not built to be a prototypical WR'er. John Ross, another guy I've brought up before. He will likely be available very cheap and his weaknesses would be minimized(he's also looked really good at times).

4-Secondary...just because teams seldom run out of athletic guys who can cover.

 

Again, 10 draft picks, no obvious real major pressing "needs" so BPA for me at OT/DL/CB, and if there is a WR'er who can help, throw them in there. Then likely 2-4ths, 2-5ths and 2-6ths, though possibly 3 picks in the 4th round when comp picks are officially awarded.

 

On paper, this year more than last year is when the Packers need to "go for it," and try and add a few guys who will make a difference. Jones and Linsley are REALLY good players, but easier to replace than most.

 

 

And I would expect Gary, Savage, Alexander to all continue to improve.

[HiAndTight]

Preston Smith lining up as a CB more than once tells me about everything I need to know about his regression.

 

Is that the player, or the stupidity of the scheme? They stopped doing that about halfway through the year, and unsurprisingly, Preston's production increased significantly. He's a pass rusher, not a coverage guy.

 

But, probably to your point, his cap number is problematic. He needs to restructure or he will indeed be gone.

 

That really is the question. Ideally, you keep Preston Smith because we've seen him play at a pretty high level most of his career, but watching him run with TE's and dropping 20 yards...with one particular play that I recall, he dropped on the wide side of the field, but he was about 3 yards away from the boundary during the play covering as little space as possible. That's just not his job.

 

I don't know if he's gone one way or the other...I think you could play Gary more and you're probably only saving 5-6 million once you factor in his replacement and then you'll have an enormous drop most likely. He was good as you say the second half of the year. If he can be that guy and they can afford it, I'd like to keep him.

[HiAndTight]

Preston Smith lining up as a CB more than once tells me about everything I need to know about his regression. I've seen the same thing said about Z multiple places and I feel like it was more of a mantra that caught on than reality. He was second team all-pro, finished the year with a 77 on PFF, 13 sacks (admittedly not a great metric), 23 hits, 12 TFL...He was the only 10/20/4TO player in the league besides Aaron Donald. SOME regression from last year was almost a guarantee based on how good he was in '19.

 

Preston is all but gone, but Pettine better be.

 

I wonder if their current front 7 personnel gives them an opportunity for a shift back to a 4-3 scheme, assuming Preston is indeed gone for next season. I'd think both Z and Gary could readily transition to DEs, Clark is going to excel no matter what on the interior, and the rest of their D lineman worth keeping around could also be fine as 4-3 DTs. Linebackerwise, they're younger and more athletic and could add to make a 4-3 fit better.

 

To be honest most 4-3 defenses now have a glorified safety playing one of the outside backer positions now with all the multiple receiver sets - I definitely don't want them to force a new defensive coordinator hire to be only a 3-4 guy based on their current personnel in the building, because I think they have enough positional flexibility to make a 4-3 work if it means bringing in the right coordinator should they decide to make a change I think we almost all want to see happen.

 

 

The main difference between 3-4 and 4-3 teams now for the most part...the DE's in the 4-3 stand up and rush in the 3-4. Teams are in their sub packages so often, I really don't think 4-3 makes the difference people think it does any longer.

 

4-3 teams are usually rushing 4...just like the Packers or any 3-4 team. They seldom play with 3 LB'ers on the field as you alluded to.

 

I don't think we need to change the scheme, just the coach...but I take your point, you don't want to limit your hiring options. But so few teams run a 4-3 and among them, most run hybrids anyway, so we should keep our search open(I'll be so pissed if there ISN'T a search and we bring Pettine back).

 

We do have the versatility up front. Keke is more suited to play in a 43, but he was also solid this year.

[HiAndTight]

Yeah I'm not all that jazzed about Watt. As mentioned, he's 32 and has a pretty lengthy injury history. Not sure it's worth the cost.

 

 

Same age as Reggie was...

 

Obviously, Reggie was still going strong, but if he was willing to come in and as others said take the hometown discount...that would be a huge addition to this defense. He was outstanding this year. Just not the DPOY all time great level he had been. But he would have been the best defender in our front 7. The type of ripples a signing like that can have could be huge.

 

But he'd really want to have to come here and we'd really have to want him to make it work.

[homer]

Packers have let Special Teams coordinator Sean Menninga go.

[patrickgpe]

Pettine's contract is up, so really they don't need to "fire" him. no word on that.

 

The special teams coach had to go though

[PeaveyFury]

Menninga is as unsurprising as it gets. We were only Mason Crosby away from being terrible in literally all aspects of special teams.

[PinaMadness]

Amen! One down, one to go.