Packers 2020 team discussion

[PeaveyFury]

The Packers are nowhere near Cap Hell. Even assuming the floor is the cap, they're just fine. ESPN just did a write up about all the playoff teams cap situations. The Packers were in better shape than just about any other team when looking at cap space(most were negative) and Free Agents.

 

That article said the Packers could get under the cap just by converting Bahktiari's roster bonus into a signing bonus, extending Adams, and cutting Kirksey. There's still a lot of other things to figure out, Preston Smith(who is likely gone or restructures) and rookie contracts.

 

Though I agree that 'cap hell' doesn't accurately describe the Packers' situation, and assuming you're referencing Barnwell's article, his supporting materials put the Packers at 28th of the 32 teams in cap space, one of ten negative teams. And of the playoff teams, only the Saints (who, as you note, have a horrid and unmanageable disaster with the cap) and Steelers are below them.

 

Yes, the moves noted above gets them to literally zero. But they'll have to get mighty creative to a) create the necessary space to actually sign their draft class, and B)make any sort of moves to either re-sign their other FAs or to bring in anyone to address a need. So, not cap hell, but certainly not a rosy picture.

 

Bahktiari's restructure is a bit puzzling to propose as well. The Packers knew what the cap situation was, and signed him just a few weeks ago. Why would they then convert a roster bonus into a signing bonus, when they simply could have done that a few weeks ago when he signed the contract?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Regarding the cap situation, I'm hopeful that adding that 17th regular season game helps jolt revenue streams along with gameday ticket sales to get the salary cap headed back up quickly after the 2021 season, where it will likely be around $175M. There will be plenty of teams dealing with cap issues that aren't necessarily in cap hell, but the reduction will limit how much new money they can shell out extending their own deserving players - let alone splurging in free agency. There are teams that aren't in cap hell, but they have a low number of players under contract heading into 2021 - meaning the remaining roster holes will need to be filled by guys making peanuts - those teams typically are the rosters looking to spend in free agency. Take Tampa Bay for example - they have roughly $27M in projected cap room for next season (7th best in the league per Spotrac), but only have 30 guys under 2021 contract that make up their total. And when you look at who those guys are, it's tough not to see them taking a huge step back next season based on who they will likely have to let go or not resign.

 

Given where the Packers currently are, I'm going to do my best not to think about what they'll need to do in order to get comfortably under the cap in order to sign a draft class and even start entertaining how to extend Jaire and some other quality young talent that will be necessary heading towards 2022. Getting 2 more W's would sure make crunching all those financials more fun to do in the offseason - particularly once we know for sure where that 2021 cap will be.

[SomewhereInTime]

Here's a controversial cap question:

 

Given that our offensive line hasn't really missed a beat in his absence and he'll be 30 this year, would it have been the smart financial move to let Bahktiari walk?

 

I know he's been a cornerstone of this franchise for years and not paying him would have been a widely unpopular move, I am just curious if people think that there were legitimate business reasons not to.

 

I mean, would you also let Linsley walk? You get to a point where you are running out of quality offensive linemen.

[PeaveyFury]

Here's a controversial cap question:

 

Given that our offensive line hasn't really missed a beat in his absence and he'll be 30 this year, would it have been the smart financial move to let Bahktiari walk?

 

I know he's been a cornerstone of this franchise for years and not paying him would have been a widely unpopular move, I am just curious if people think that there were legitimate business reasons not to.

 

I mean, would you also let Linsley walk? You get to a point where you are running out of quality offensive linemen.

 

They've got a really tough question to answer regarding Linsley. On the one hand, he's the best center in the game. On the other, he's going to want to get paid accordingly, and their resources next year are undeniably limited. They have a very capable replacement in Jenkins, but it'll likely depend on how they feel about Patrick/Runyan as their potential guards. Knowing that Bahk is out for probably at least some of 2021 as well makes the choice even more difficult, IMO.

[homer]

I think they let Linsley walk and roll with Runyan. There was probably a good reason they drafted three O lineman last year.

[PeaveyFury]

I think you're probably right, homer. I think that of their 'main' three free agents, they should re-sign Linsley but likely won't, they shouldn't re-sign King, and they probably shouldn't and won't re-sign Jones. I think their big offseason moves will be re-signing Williams and an Adams extension, then the rest will be left to the draft.

[CheezWizHed]

Billy Turner and Rick Wagner been very good since Bahk went down. Wagner has already "dipped" a bit with the Lions (but hey, maybe it was the Lions), but he will turn 32 next year. Both Turner and Bahk turn 30 next year and playing strong.

 

But there are a few key positions where you simply pay up when you have a guy in the top-5 of the league. QB, CB, WR, Pass rusher, LT - that is 90% of the game these days. We are in the position to go to the SB because we have a top-5 QB, WR, CB, and LT. Not sure if Z quite makes the top 5....Gary might someday.

 

Also, how is it I've not noticed Billy "William" Turner and made a pirates of the Caribbean joke? Maybe Rodgers should try a Captain Jack Sparrow facial hair for training camp next year?

 

And speaking of name oddities... I mentioned this in the game thread, but we scored a TD almost immediately afterwards.

AJ Dillon has four names (and is a "junior" to boot): Algiers Jameal William Dillon

 

So, if you wonder why the Packer's picked him, he is literally the combination of Aaron Jones (AJ) and Jamaal Williams. Even his second name Jameal is so close to Jamaal - just steal the "e" from Jones. #thingsIfindAmusing

[CheezWizHed]

I think you're probably right, homer. I think that of their 'main' three free agents, they should re-sign Linsley but likely won't, they shouldn't re-sign King, and they probably shouldn't and won't re-sign Jones. I think their big offseason moves will be re-signing Williams and an Adams extension, then the rest will be left to the draft.

 

Maybe we have a different determination of "should", but I separate skill from affordability.

 

I think Jones would be the best player to have back - age, explosive skill player. But also the most likely to cash in in FA. If he gets the Melvin Gordan treatment, I wouldn't snub him from returning.

 

Likewise with King. He has been an injury prone average-ish CB that provides good diversity to Alexander's style of play. It would need to be a low figure, but I'd take him back. He is probably a target to replace in the draft regardless of him returning or not (at least as a backup for injuries).

 

I get the feeling Linsey is going to be less volatile in price (no injury red flags, consistent play, centers are centers) and going to find something out of our price.

[PeaveyFury]

Maybe we have a different determination of "should", but I separate skill from affordability.

 

I'm not really making that distinction in my personal views, honestly. In a vacuum, you're right that we could do worse than King at 2nd corner, and if they had massive cap space this year I'd think they'd be interested in some kind of deal with him. But he's going to get more money than he's worth in the end, I assume, especially factoring in the necessary 'expected time missed' that is part of his baggage.

 

I think Jones has a similar problem with both affordability and expected production over the length of the deal. If the Packers could sign him to a 1-2 year deal, he'd likely be worth every penny. But he's going to get 5 and a boatload of cash from some team, and I'd bet a lot of tostidos that the deal will look pretty ugly by year 3-4 as his production tails off like every single RB on their second contract in today's NFL.

[adambr2]

I think most of us would take King back on a low figure. That won't be an option, however.

[CheezWizHed]

Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos for 2 years and $16M when people expected him to break the bank. If that happens to Jones, would you do 2/$20M for Jones? I'd think yes.

 

I felt sure King would go high this offseason, but I wonder if his injury continues to drive down his demand. If he remains solid in the playoffs (or especially makes a splash play in the next two games), then he probably will be too expensive.

[PeaveyFury]

Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos for 2 years and $16M when people expected him to break the bank. If that happens to Jones, would you do 2/$20M for Jones? I'd think yes.

 

Yes, I'd do that deal as well. The Cook/Kamara deals came after Gordon, though, and I'd think that type of money would be the bar for Jones at this point.

[nate82]

Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos for 2 years and $16M when people expected him to break the bank. If that happens to Jones, would you do 2/$20M for Jones? I'd think yes.

 

I felt sure King would go high this offseason, but I wonder if his injury continues to drive down his demand. If he remains solid in the playoffs (or especially makes a splash play in the next two games), then he probably will be too expensive.

 

Signing RB's in FA in the NFL is just a dumb idea and [sarcasm]you can fight me on that![/sarcasm] I think Jones ends up with the Jaguars on a deal a little bit more than what Gordon got.

 

Not a 1:1 comparison but I wouldn't be surprised if King has a Charles Woodson like resurgence with another team, I think he fits in well with a team like the Broncos, Chargers, or Seahawks. Ultimately I think the Jaguars or the Patriots sign him.

[SomewhereInTime]

Here's a controversial cap question:

 

Given that our offensive line hasn't really missed a beat in his absence and he'll be 30 this year, would it have been the smart financial move to let Bahktiari walk?

 

I know he's been a cornerstone of this franchise for years and not paying him would have been a widely unpopular move, I am just curious if people think that there were legitimate business reasons not to.

 

I mean, would you also let Linsley walk? You get to a point where you are running out of quality offensive linemen.

 

They've got a really tough question to answer regarding Linsley. On the one hand, he's the best center in the game. On the other, he's going to want to get paid accordingly, and their resources next year are undeniably limited. They have a very capable replacement in Jenkins, but it'll likely depend on how they feel about Patrick/Runyan as their potential guards. Knowing that Bahk is out for probably at least some of 2021 as well makes the choice even more difficult, IMO.

 

No I meant if they didn't sign Bahktiari. I think at this point it's a forgone conclusion that Linsley won't be resigned.

[CheezWizHed]

Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos for 2 years and $16M when people expected him to break the bank. If that happens to Jones, would you do 2/$20M for Jones? I'd think yes.

 

Yes, I'd do that deal as well. The Cook/Kamara deals came after Gordon, though, and I'd think that type of money would be the bar for Jones at this point.

 

Gordon's deal was pretty much the worst-case situation obviously. I'd think Jones is a step behind Cook and Kamara, but RB can be a fickle market.

[nodakfan17]

Per Rob Demovsky, Tramon Williams was in town today. He was released by the Ravens on Monday, so I guess he’s free to sign with a playoff team.

 

I wouldn’t mind seeing him in the role of ‘punt catcher.’

 

[CheezWizHed]

Not sure who we would cut, but I wouldn't mind just having him along for the ride - even if he stood on the sideline and helped "coach" the guys a bit.

[HiAndTight]

The Packers are nowhere near Cap Hell. Even assuming the floor is the cap, they're just fine. ESPN just did a write up about all the playoff teams cap situations. The Packers were in better shape than just about any other team when looking at cap space(most were negative) and Free Agents.

 

That article said the Packers could get under the cap just by converting Bahktiari's roster bonus into a signing bonus, extending Adams, and cutting Kirksey. There's still a lot of other things to figure out, Preston Smith(who is likely gone or restructures) and rookie contracts.

 

Though I agree that 'cap hell' doesn't accurately describe the Packers' situation, and assuming you're referencing Barnwell's article, his supporting materials put the Packers at 28th of the 32 teams in cap space, one of ten negative teams. And of the playoff teams, only the Saints (who, as you note, have a horrid and unmanageable disaster with the cap) and Steelers are below them.

 

Yes, the moves noted above gets them to literally zero. But they'll have to get mighty creative to a) create the necessary space to actually sign their draft class, and B)make any sort of moves to either re-sign their other FAs or to bring in anyone to address a need. So, not cap hell, but certainly not a rosy picture.

 

Bahktiari's restructure is a bit puzzling to propose as well. The Packers knew what the cap situation was, and signed him just a few weeks ago. Why would they then convert a roster bonus into a signing bonus, when they simply could have done that a few weeks ago when he signed the contract?

 

 

Yes, but look at the FA's most of the teams have? They have quite far more free agents and far bigger questions. The Packers had Jones, Linsley and King.

 

The Steelers for example had Dupree, JuJu, both their tackles, Hilton, Conner...and others.

Tampa has Gronk, Goodwin, Barrett, AB, their RB's, Lavonte David...and others.

 

And the obvious answer to why they wouldn't have done that with Bahk a few weeks ago, they're probably waiting until they know what the cap is actually going to be.

 

The NFL is pushing for a longer season. It's obvious there's going to be negotiations between the two sides this off-season.

[HiAndTight]

Melvin Gordon signed with the Broncos for 2 years and $16M when people expected him to break the bank. If that happens to Jones, would you do 2/$20M for Jones? I'd think yes.

 

Yes, I'd do that deal as well. The Cook/Kamara deals came after Gordon, though, and I'd think that type of money would be the bar for Jones at this point.

 

Gordon's deal was pretty much the worst-case situation obviously. I'd think Jones is a step behind Cook and Kamara, but RB can be a fickle market.

 

The problem is when RB's actually enter free agency, they seldom really cash in.

 

I have no idea what he ends up getting. He IS a level below Cook and Kamara and if we would have had fans, the Packers probably would have paid him accordingly, but it's not.

 

IF he were willing to sign a 5 year 60 million dollar deal and we only had to guarantee ~15 million of it, that'd be perfect. I think having Jones and Dillon is just a best-case scenario and could help take our offense to the next level.

 

 

I think I mentioned this elsewhere, but PFF had Jones getting 4/46. That feels about right this year(25 guaranteed). Linsley 3/33. And King not on the top 100. And they had Will Fulller going to GB for 5/87.5. So like all things PFF-related, it's to be taken with a grain of salt.

[HiAndTight]

Here's a controversial cap question:

 

Given that our offensive line hasn't really missed a beat in his absence and he'll be 30 this year, would it have been the smart financial move to let Bahktiari walk?

 

I know he's been a cornerstone of this franchise for years and not paying him would have been a widely unpopular move, I am just curious if people think that there were legitimate business reasons not to.

 

 

No...and I do think they've missed a beat. Having Bahk...when healthy, it allows you to use your other 4 guys to do whatever they need. Double a guy like Donald(when healthy), slide over and help out if you've got a stud over Wagner. It's like having a stud CB that takes away one half of the field.

 

Without Bahk, the Packers have to be very careful with their playcalling and they could be in real trouble if they get behind. We just haven't been in that situation yet. A franchise and potential HOF'er at LT?

 

If we'd have known he was going to get hurt, then obviously, but the elite LT's can play well into their 30's in the NFL. We just saw a really good LT who was 38. Trent Williams is dominant still despite missing a year.

 

Maybe my mind will change after this week, but with an elite edge rusher with JPP and last years sack leader in Barrett, we'll get a better idea just how good Turner is.

 

I do think they overpaid for Bahk a bit. I would have expected a bit more of a team-friendly deal(not a discount, but not MORE than Tunsil who had a TON of leverage got). He wasn't getting anywhere near that in free agency. But because it's a LT, I get it.

 

I would expect the Packers to use a pretty high pick on both CB and OT in this draft. Maybe not the 32nd pick in the trade(hopefully) but at least one of the 4th rounders.

[HiAndTight]

Regarding the cap situation, I'm hopeful that adding that 17th regular season game helps jolt revenue streams along with gameday ticket sales to get the salary cap headed back up quickly after the 2021 season, where it will likely be around $175M. There will be plenty of teams dealing with cap issues that aren't necessarily in cap hell, but the reduction will limit how much new money they can shell out extending their own deserving players - let alone splurging in free agency. There are teams that aren't in cap hell, but they have a low number of players under contract heading into 2021 - meaning the remaining roster holes will need to be filled by guys making peanuts - those teams typically are the rosters looking to spend in free agency. Take Tampa Bay for example - they have roughly $27M in projected cap room for next season (7th best in the league per Spotrac), but only have 30 guys under 2021 contract that make up their total. And when you look at who those guys are, it's tough not to see them taking a huge step back next season based on who they will likely have to let go or not resign.

 

Given where the Packers currently are, I'm going to do my best not to think about what they'll need to do in order to get comfortably under the cap in order to sign a draft class and even start entertaining how to extend Jaire and some other quality young talent that will be necessary heading towards 2022. Getting 2 more W's would sure make crunching all those financials more fun to do in the offseason - particularly once we know for sure where that 2021 cap will be.

 

 

If the cap does stay at 176 this year..AND we add a 17th game, I think everyone will be fine by next off-season. You could see a potential 100 million dollar cap increase if everything goes back to normal, and we add a 17th game.

 

But the posturing is already starting. Pro Football Talk is saying they believe it'll be around 195...which would hold the cap down in the future by pushing some of those problems off. They've already done that just by agreeing to the 175 cap floor. If they just went by the numbers, the cap would be closer to 120-125 and really screw teams up.

 

It might be best if we just suck it up and deal with the financial implications this year, especially since I believe that'll hurt some other teams worse than us, but you're really hurting a lot of NFL Veterans in that situation.

 

But as you said...lets figure that out after the parade!

[nodakfan17]

Tramon Williams reportedly has been signed to the Practice Squad.

 

He was practicing today with the team and wearing his #38. It’s good to have him back, but I worry about bringing in someone off the street without quarantining (like Veldeer).

[PinaMadness]

I'm sure the organization did their due diligence this time around. I'm glad to have him just for depth. Tampa's got a pretty damn good set of receivers. We're going to need all the help we can get.

[HiAndTight]

I'm sure the organization did their due diligence this time around. I'm glad to have him just for depth. Tampa's got a pretty damn good set of receivers. We're going to need all the help we can get.

 

 

That...and he was a helluva player just last year. With all the grains of salt that come with PFF grades, he graded out as the 6th best CB in the NFL last year.

 

So if he's in shape and feeling good, he might be able to help.

 

It's kinda funny, I'd hoped the Packers would bring Veldheer and Tramon back and sign Snacks as a FA...which I think most fans did. We just decided we'd wait until the regular season was over to add those three!

[nodakfan17]

I have very low expectations for Tramon, but it’s nice to know he effectively puts a floor on the #4/5 corner spot so Josh Jackson doesn’t have to play meaningful time in the postseason.

 

Mark Ingram would also be a FA if he clears waivers. With these odd 2020 roster rules, they could also sign him to the practice squad as an insurance policy. Again, I don’t have any real expectations there, but I cringe at the thought of Dexter Williams taking snaps this time of year.