Packers 2020 team discussion

[OldHeidelberg]

Packers are only 4 point favorites on Sunday, opened at -5.5. That surprises me, I expected about -7. Similar situation for Seattle who are -4 at SF.

[homer]

Packers are only 4 point favorites on Sunday, opened at -5.5. That surprises me, I expected about -7. Similar situation for Seattle who are -4 at SF.

 

Yeah and I think they were a -3.5 to open against TEN

 

That line should move GB's way I would think.

[homer]

If Packers move on from Jones, I think they need a quick/speed guy to replace him.

[bjkrautk]

If Packers move on from Jones, I think they need a quick/speed guy to replace him.

 

While slightly a tangent, this feels like the appropriate place to note my surprise that Tavon Austin has thus far been a decoy in the running game.

[Outlander]

I can't imagine the Packers being fine with Jones playing with the franchise tag in 2021, just too high a number when they are already not in a great position next year cap wise.

[GAME05]

If not for drafting a pass-catching RB, maybe Deguera would mitigate some of the pass-catching loss of Jones. Run more two-back formations and it's Dillon who stays in to pass-block but it's Deguera who does the catching.

[PeaveyFury]

I maintain that a franchise tag is ideal if they can make the cap work, because I think we’d all be fine with Jones playing on one more one year deal.

 

Yes, but I think it will be very difficult for that to work in this situation when the cap is likely to drop closer to $175M and the recent RB contracts would cause a franchise tag for Jones to eat up too much cap room on next year's roster.

 

Yes, this is completely correct. In a different year I think they'd be able to pull this off.

 

If the cap does drop to $175 as many are predicting, the Packers really are in some trouble. If the cap just stayed the same they'll have to axe some guys to get flexibility, but if it drops that much, they'll have to axe those guys and more just to get below the new cap.

 

One of the logical ways to free up SOME cap (beyond the logical cuts of Kirksey, Wagner, etc.)is to extend Adams, which I'd expect to be done sometime prior to March.

 

Still, I'm not sure they even will have the room to tag Jones at all, honestly.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the cap does drop to $175 as many are predicting, the Packers really are in some trouble.

 

Them and about 1/2 the league...then if the cap stays at $175ish million or even drops further for 2022, pretty much every team is in salary cap hell - because teams that right now have alot of room will need to extend their best young players currently on rookie deals, too. This is why I don't think it's too far-fetched for the NFL to adjust the salary cap rules over the next couple of offseasons to prevent teams from having to cut 30-40% of their rosters to get under the likely caps based on current revenue forecasting. Doing that floods the UFA market and forces those veterans to either resign and play for peanuts or hang them up a few seasons early - plus it really suppresses the contract value marquee UFAs could get on a $/year basis.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm curious why people think Dillon isn't a good pass-catcher or have to qualify it as "for a big guy"?

 

He really has only a couple of chances to catch the ball and from what I can remember, he has looked good on all of them. That shoe-string catch on that shovel screen (which was negated by penalty so it didn't show up on his stats) was impressive - for ANYONE. He has very soft hands for an RB.

 

His route running was very natural. There was one play he rolled out to the right along the LOS then cut upfield. He timed the pass well and caught it with his hands (i.e. no body catch) while on the run. He looked very natural running out there. On another route, he did a go-route and cleared out for an underneath throw to Davante. No, he isn't running "the whole route tree", but for a rookie RB that didn't get a pre-season, he has looked very natural out there.

 

And remember that it took a couple of years for Jones and Williams to get to their current level of catching the ball and pass blocking. Dillon is way ahead of both of them as rookies, IMO.

 

At least in the small sample size that we've been seen so far. He certainly isn't Eddy Lacy catching the ball out there. Note that Henry was consistently removed on passing plays last night too...

[GAME05]

If the salary cap is cut, I wonder how that would effect things for teams like the Jets and Bengals, who presumably would have a lot of room under the cap due to having few stars, and could then pick up a lot of talent that other teams just couldn't afford.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm glad signing Jones isn't even an option. Removes the temptation to sign him if they had the cap space. RB is the easiest position to replace, and replace immediately. If they did have space, I would much rather use it on defense.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm glad signing Jones isn't even an option. Removes the temptation to sign him if they had the cap space. RB is the easiest position to replace, and replace immediately. If they did have space, I would much rather use it on defense.

 

I trust the Packers to make the right decision there, as they usually do. If they find the cap space, I hope it's used to tag-and-trade or something like that. I too don't want Jones signed to a big/long deal, but it seems criminal to have him walk and get a late 3rd rounder a year later.

[nodakfan17]

Apparently, the Packers’ 17th game next year will be against the Kansas City Chiefs because of course.

 

[patrickgpe]

the difference in the 1st place schedule to the 4th place schedule will now be even larger, since the packers will have to play 3 1st place teams, that the rest of the division doesn't have to. Granted, non conference games do not count as much as conference ones, so loosing that 17th game isn't as massive of a deal as loosing a game in conference, but a loss is a loss. Also in the NFL there is no guarantee of future success in the following season.

 

It gives the network another bunch of juicy matchups to put in primetime, so I am sure everyone is happy and really doesn't care that about the SOS difference.

[PinaMadness]

So where is this 17th game going to be played, or how is that determined?

[nodakfan17]

So where is this 17th game going to be played, or how is that determined?

Either all 16 AFC teams will host the 17th game or all 16 NFC teams (switching back and forth between conferences every year). They love parity so long as it doesn’t impact TV dollars.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is just a step towards the inevitable 18 game schedule. Guessing next year there will be 3 pre-season games, then only 2 when they go to 18 games. Interested to see if they go to two bye weeks next year, there should be 2 byes already.

 

Curious if the Love pick had anything to do with this, because playing Rodgers for 18 full games plus playoff games is, well, a lot. If Love is ready to play next year, or the following year for sure, they could make decisions like playing Rodgers only a half, or not at all, vs say the Bungles or the Lions.

[young guns]

I had completely forgotten about the 17th game being added and thought this meant our week 17 game next year would be against kc and thought that was weird

[CheezWizHed]

Curious if the Love pick had anything to do with this, because playing Rodgers for 18 full games plus playoff games is, well, a lot. If Love is ready to play next year, or the following year for sure, they could make decisions like playing Rodgers only a half, or not at all, vs say the Bungles or the Lions.

 

Very few starting QBs make it 16 in a season. Rodgers seems to start all of them or miss a bunch. They've needed a good backup QB for a long time. I doubt the increase was part of it.

[HiAndTight]

If the cap does drop to $175 as many are predicting, the Packers really are in some trouble.

 

Them and about 1/2 the league...then if the cap stays at $175ish million or even drops further for 2022, pretty much every team is in salary cap hell - because teams that right now have alot of room will need to extend their best young players currently on rookie deals, too. This is why I don't think it's too far-fetched for the NFL to adjust the salary cap rules over the next couple of offseasons to prevent teams from having to cut 30-40% of their rosters to get under the likely caps based on current revenue forecasting. Doing that floods the UFA market and forces those veterans to either resign and play for peanuts or hang them up a few seasons early - plus it really suppresses the contract value marquee UFAs could get on a $/year basis.

 

 

I agree. There's too much both sides want for them to. The NFLPA certainly doesn't want vets getting cut because of a crazy fluke cap situation the year the NFL signs a 100 Billion dollar TV deal.

The NFL likely wants 18 games...

 

Neither side wants to see chaos as the Cap goes from 175 back up to 245 just because they had a CBA that says that's how it works.

[HiAndTight]

I'm glad signing Jones isn't even an option. Removes the temptation to sign him if they had the cap space. RB is the easiest position to replace, and replace immediately. If they did have space, I would much rather use it on defense.

 

 

If signing Jones wasn't an option, the Packers likely wouldn't have spent most of the season negotiating with him.

[HiAndTight]

I'm curious why people think Dillon isn't a good pass-catcher or have to qualify it as "for a big guy"?

 

He really has only a couple of chances to catch the ball and from what I can remember, he has looked good on all of them. That shoe-string catch on that shovel screen (which was negated by penalty so it didn't show up on his stats) was impressive - for ANYONE. He has very soft hands for an RB.

 

His route running was very natural. There was one play he rolled out to the right along the LOS then cut upfield. He timed the pass well and caught it with his hands (i.e. no body catch) while on the run. He looked very natural running out there. On another route, he did a go-route and cleared out for an underneath throw to Davante. No, he isn't running "the whole route tree", but for a rookie RB that didn't get a pre-season, he has looked very natural out there.

 

And remember that it took a couple of years for Jones and Williams to get to their current level of catching the ball and pass blocking. Dillon is way ahead of both of them as rookies, IMO.

 

At least in the small sample size that we've been seen so far. He certainly isn't Eddy Lacy catching the ball out there. Note that Henry was consistently removed on passing plays last night too...

 

 

Because he has a small catch radius and he's never shown the ability to catch balls that are out in front of him and most big guys...as you noted with Henry, aren't good at catching the ball out of the backfield. Guys like Jones or Kamara can come out of the backfield and catch a ball over their shoulder. I've seen nothing that suggests Dillon can do that and the fact that he's got ~20 catches through College and the NFL is telling.

 

Aaron Jones was considered a very good receiver coming out of college, and I don't consider Williams to be a very good pass catcher either. Probably closer to average. With both Williams and Dillon, you have to put the ball right on them. You can line Jones up in the slot or on the outside and have him run a slant and that's something I really doubt Dillion will ever add to his game.

 

And if he does...great. Then he'll lose the "for a big guy" designation.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm curious why people think Dillon isn't a good pass-catcher or have to qualify it as "for a big guy"?

 

He really has only a couple of chances to catch the ball and from what I can remember, he has looked good on all of them. That shoe-string catch on that shovel screen (which was negated by penalty so it didn't show up on his stats) was impressive - for ANYONE. He has very soft hands for an RB.

 

His route running was very natural. There was one play he rolled out to the right along the LOS then cut upfield. He timed the pass well and caught it with his hands (i.e. no body catch) while on the run. He looked very natural running out there. On another route, he did a go-route and cleared out for an underneath throw to Davante. No, he isn't running "the whole route tree", but for a rookie RB that didn't get a pre-season, he has looked very natural out there.

 

And remember that it took a couple of years for Jones and Williams to get to their current level of catching the ball and pass blocking. Dillon is way ahead of both of them as rookies, IMO.

 

At least in the small sample size that we've been seen so far. He certainly isn't Eddy Lacy catching the ball out there. Note that Henry was consistently removed on passing plays last night too...

 

 

Because he has a small catch radius and he's never shown the ability to catch balls that are out in front of him and most big guys...as you noted with Henry, aren't good at catching the ball out of the backfield. Guys like Jones or Kamara can come out of the backfield and catch a ball over their shoulder. I've seen nothing that suggests Dillon can do that and the fact that he's got ~20 catches through College and the NFL is telling.

 

Aaron Jones was considered a very good receiver coming out of college, and I don't consider Williams to be a very good pass catcher either. Probably closer to average. With both Williams and Dillon, you have to put the ball right on them. You can line Jones up in the slot or on the outside and have him run a slant and that's something I really doubt Dillion will ever add to his game.

 

And if he does...great. Then he'll lose the "for a big guy" designation.

 

I don't think this is true. Williams was largely considered the more polished pass catcher coming out of college. Jones didn't do much receiving, and that part of his game was considered a work in progress. Williams was quite polished as a receiver coming out.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm glad signing Jones isn't even an option. Removes the temptation to sign him if they had the cap space. RB is the easiest position to replace, and replace immediately. If they did have space, I would much rather use it on defense.

 

 

If signing Jones wasn't an option, the Packers likely wouldn't have spent most of the season negotiating with him.

 

I'm not sure that's a complete picture. As recently as a month ago, reports were that the Packers intended to let him walk. Around the time he changed agents a couple of weeks ago, there were report that the two sides had discussions, but that talks were stalled. For all we know, the discussions were, 'hey, would you re-sign a 2-year, back-loaded deal' and Jones said no way.

[HiAndTight]

 

I don't think this is true. Williams was largely considered the more polished pass catcher coming out of college. Jones didn't do much receiving, and that part of his game was considered a work in progress. Williams was quite polished as a receiver coming out.

 

 

Are you sure you don't have that backward? Jones was a more established receiver and thought of as a 3rd down back...and used much more in the passing game than Williams. He had 30 receptions, 9 in 2 games as a redshirt Jr and then 28 as Sr.

 

Williams was more of a check-down guy and had 15 catches his final two years at BYU(though he was used more in that role early on).

 

I remember the main question about Jones was if he could be an every-down back or if he was more of a 3rd down back. I don't recall any questions about his receiving ability.