Packers 2020 team discussion

[homer]

Start Bahk contract extension talk in earnest here.

 

• 4-year deal worth up to mil, base value $103.5 mil with $2 mil incentives

• New money avg. $23 mil/year (highest ever for OL, can reach $23.5 mil on incentives)

• $30 mil signing bonus (highest ever for OL)

Another $30,072,059 in March roster bonuses ($11,072,059 in 2021, $9.5 mil in 2022, $9.5 mil in 2023)

 

• $62.8 mil in total comp over next 25 months, $48.125 mil next four months and $60 mil in next 16 months

 

• Record-setting base cash flow for OL in years 1,3,4 and 5

[PeaveyFury]

Wow, I was hoping for a team-friendly deal in 2021 at least with the upcoming cap issue, but that cap number is monstrous. Bye to Jones, Preston Smith, etc. for sure.....

[pacopete4]

I'm just not sold on this signing. With the way the Packers have been able to turn over their offensive line recently, this is a lot to spend on one position that isn't the quarterback.

[brewcrewdue80]

Adams has 1 yr left in 2021. What is GB going to put on the field in 2022 for WR? Gutekunst must have some plan in mind to move Rodgers before 2022 starts because missing out on the WR class this draft he's setting up for Malik Taylor to be our #1 in 2022 not being able to pay Adams.

 

Edit wow so essentially there isn't 1 WR signed beyond next year. This game just got MVS a 4yr contract at 8-10 per to fix that.

[PeaveyFury]

I think they actually have a huge amount of cap room in 2022 even after Bakh's extension, so they could easily extend Adams. Honestly, an Adams extension with a restructure of his 2021 cap number makes a ton of sense to alleviate some of the cap crunch next year.

 

But Rodgers' contract in 2022 and the huge amount of cap space they'd save by moving him is exactly why he's unlikely to be our QB in 2022.

[LouisEly]

I think this means Linsley and Preston Smith are gone. I think Kirksey is gone too. Turner, Wagner, and Lowry after next season. Maybe ZaDarius Smith too - great pass rusher, but terrible run defender, and probably not worth $20M. I think Amos is gone after next season too. Cap space won't be a problem in 2022.

 

Lots of players will get cut this offseason as the cap will go down, and there won't be much room to sign them, just like in baseball. Mid-level FAs, if they want to play, will need to sign for closer to minimum. They will be able to replace guys like Kirksey/Turner/Wagner/Lowry for less than half of what they are paying them now.

[HiAndTight]

From Rob Demovsky;

 

If you think David Bakhtiari's deal means the Packers won't be able to re-sign any more of their pending free-agents, GM Brian Gutekunst said this: "This actually gives a little more flexibility to move forward."

 

 

 

I think it's unlikely they'd extend their All Pro LT at age 29 and then just rip apart their roster the following year.

[young guns]

By flexibility does he mean certainty? Because I can see how nowing how much 1 player is getting helps that, but not sure how giving out big money improves flexibility.

[brewcrewdue80]

From Rob Demovsky;

 

If you think David Bakhtiari's deal means the Packers won't be able to re-sign any more of their pending free-agents, GM Brian Gutekunst said this: "This actually gives a little more flexibility to move forward."

 

 

 

I think it's unlikely they'd extend their All Pro LT at age 29 and then just rip apart their roster the following year.

 

"To move forward."

 

Almost read that as the path of what moves they can or must make is clearer. Like cut this guy, trade(can they sign and trade while going over the cap leading up to the draft?) that guy, resign that guy, and restructure this guy's contract.

[nodakfan17]

I think they find a way to stretch things out next year with some salary cap magic. The reckoning will be in 2022. I’ve always wanted the Packers to ‘go for it’ at the end Rodgers’ career, even if that necessitated a salary cap repair year or two afterwards. It just doesn’t feel like the Packers really ‘went for it.’

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Silverstein on Twitter: Here's what made Bakhtiari's deal doable for GB: his salary cap number this year will only go up $1.5M to $16.25M, leaving the #Packers about $5M under now. Next year, he has a roster bonus of $11M, which GB will likely guarantee and pro-rate so his '21 cap # will only be $11.1M.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think they find a way to stretch things out next year with some salary cap magic. The reckoning will be in 2022. I’ve always wanted the Packers to ‘go for it’ at the end Rodgers’ career, even if that necessitated a salary cap repair year or two afterwards. It just doesn’t feel like the Packers really ‘went for it.’

 

Reading between the lines with what Gute said during his presser yesterday, he's expecting a flurry of cuts in March as teams are desperate to get under the adjusted cap, and he expects the Packers to have the financial flexibility to take advantage of that buyers market.

[PeaveyFury]

Silverstein on Twitter: Here's what made Bakhtiari's deal doable for GB: his salary cap number this year will only go up $1.5M to $16.25M, leaving the #Packers about $5M under now. Next year, he has a roster bonus of $11M, which GB will likely guarantee and pro-rate so his '21 cap # will only be $11.1M.

 

Very good info here. I'm curious about 'guaranteeing' the roster bonus leading to pro-ration, as that certainly would be a game-changer, but I've never heard of roster bonuses getting done that way. A 2021 cap number of ~$11 million vs. $17-20million is huge considering their situation financially.

 

This is actually an extension that includes a 2020 restructure, so that will allow flexibility. They've used the bulk of their 2021 space as of now, but they'll be able to shed contracts to open up space to do more things. I think getting Bakh locked up was priority one for them, so this will allow their focus to be elsewhere come Feb/March.

[PeaveyFury]

So, the question remains: Who might they be able to re-sign as FAs, and who is likely a cap casualty? They can save $6 million from Kirksey, and $3.3 from Lowry (AND a whopping $7.3 million on Lowry in 2022), so I think they're very much locks to be gone. I'd be astounded if they pay Rick Wagner's $1.75 million roster bonus in March, so I'd expect him gone to free up another $4.25 million. That's $13.55 of cap space just from logical veteran cuts.

 

Saving $8 million by moving Preston Smith seems likely as well, though he might be a restructure candidate to bring down the $16mil cap number. An Adams extension to push out some of his $16.6 million number would be possible if not likely in my mind as well.

 

So I do agree that getting Bakh done probably does give them more certainty with the cap. I'd still love a tag-and-trade with Jones, but that gets complicated. I think King has all the tools to be a legit CB if he could ever stay on the field consistently, but I don't think the Packers have the luxury to be the ones to give him a significant contract to find out if that's possible or not. Beyond that, other than some of the more minor FAs that I think they'll try to bring back (Krys Barnes), Linsley is the only other one that I'm not sure what they'll do. The rest? Meh. I'd love Williams back for the right price, but we'll see what his demand is.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think they find a way to stretch things out next year with some salary cap magic. The reckoning will be in 2022. I’ve always wanted the Packers to ‘go for it’ at the end Rodgers’ career, even if that necessitated a salary cap repair year or two afterwards. It just doesn’t feel like the Packers really ‘went for it.’

 

Reading between the lines with what Gute said during his presser yesterday, he's expecting a flurry of cuts in March as teams are desperate to get under the adjusted cap, and he expects the Packers to have the financial flexibility to take advantage of that buyers market.

 

That is all but a certainty - both for 2021 and 2022....in fact it wouldn't surprise me if things stabilize COVID-wise over the next year and the NFL can actually project typical revenues starting with the 2023 season related to gameday fans, Owners/players could easily agree to have the 2022 and 2023 seasons be uncapped years to avoid teams having to cut all veterans and have them resign for peanuts to keep playing. Next year's cap is likely to dip to $175M, and 2022's cap would likely be there or even less - there's no way their current salary cap model doesn't lead to widespread cuts, which is based on constantly increasing revenues in order for teams to give players ever-increasing contracts. That model falls apart when revenue dips or even stalls for a sustained period of time, like what we are going to see with the 2020-2022 seasons.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So, the question remains: Who might they be able to re-sign as FAs, and who is likely a cap casualty? They can save $6 million from Kirksey, and $3.3 from Lowry (AND a whopping $7.3 million on Lowry in 2022), so I think they're very much locks to be gone. I'd be astounded if they pay Rick Wagner's $1.75 million roster bonus in March, so I'd expect him gone to free up another $4.25 million. That's $13.55 of cap space just from logical veteran cuts.

 

Saving $8 million by moving Preston Smith seems likely as well, though he might be a restructure candidate to bring down the $16mil cap number. An Adams extension to push out some of his $16.6 million number would be possible if not likely in my mind as well.

 

So I do agree that getting Bakh done probably does give them more certainty with the cap. I'd still love a tag-and-trade with Jones, but that gets complicated. I think King has all the tools to be a legit CB if he could ever stay on the field consistently, but I don't think the Packers have the luxury to be the ones to give him a significant contract to find out if that's possible or not. Beyond that, other than some of the more minor FAs that I think they'll try to bring back (Krys Barnes), Linsley is the only other one that I'm not sure what they'll do. The rest? Meh. I'd love Williams back for the right price, but we'll see what his demand is.

 

I think players such as Kirksey, Lowry and Wagner are going to have to see the writing on the wall. They are they types that every team is going to be looking to jettison come March, and will be looking at vet minimum-type deals. I have a really tough time seeing King break the bank, too. I know he plays a premium position, but that injury history is going to scare off a lot of other teams. I could see the packers re-signing him to a modest deal, with the idea that if you get him for 10+ games a season, you are playing with house money. i actually feel pretty good about the depth the team has at CB with Sullivan, Jackson and even Hollman, and they have proven that they can weather the storm without King if needed.

 

I think P. Smith is probably gone, as they have a ready-made replacement for him on the roster with Gary, with a developmental guy in Garvin who has flashed enough to deserve a bigger look. Linsley is probably gone as well, as Lucas Patrick is a ready-made replacement there (with Runyan stepping into Patrick's G role). There is no way they let Jones walk for a compensatory 3rd, though, IMO. Either they get an extension done with him before the end of this season, or they tag and trade him for a 1st rounder.

[CheezWizHed]

First, I'm very happy to keep Bahk despite the price. He has been a top LT for a long time and at 29, I think this was well deserved.

 

King probably was going to break the bank this year if he stayed as healthy as last year. With more soft-tissue issues, I'm guessing people will be wary of giving him a huge bonus. But for the same reasons, I'm thinking he will go.

 

Linsley is very likely a cap-casualty and I'm ok with that. I'd rather find a center (which we probably have on the roster) than an LT (which we don't).

 

Jones - If we have the room, I'd just tag him and play him on the tag. If not resign Williams for a reasonable amount.

 

As others mentioned, I'd imagine that Kirksey, Lowry, Wagner, and P-Smith are gone. Kirksey did play well last night, but similar issues as with King at CB - your best ability is availability. Plus Martin and Barnes look very good at MLB. The whole DLine needs a kick in the pants; cutting Lowry will be the beginning. P-Smith has been better lately, but has as many really bad plays (mostly runs) as pass rush pressures.

[PeaveyFury]

Kirksey did play well last night, but similar issues as with King at CB - your best ability is availability. Plus Martin and Barnes look very good at MLB.

 

Kirksey does have the chance to show over the remaining games that he's worth keeping, but as you note, the difference between him and a league minimum-type guy like Barnes probably isn't worth the $6 million in cap space. I suppose we should all root for him to make that a tough decision, as we need better MLB play.

[HiAndTight]

By flexibility does he mean certainty? Because I can see how nowing how much 1 player is getting helps that, but not sure how giving out big money improves flexibility.

 

I don't know, it's possible his cap hit next year is not very big. Look at Preston or Za'Darius Smith's last year. Both were under 8 million I think.

 

So his cap hit may go down. And I'm sure the Packers believe that the Cap WILL eventually shoot way back up after Covid. If these vaccines come through, it may even be as soon as next season that fans are back.

 

 

Plus...I've always been convinced that they'll take steps to mitigate how big the drop is in the Cap. Teams were preparing for a ~240 million dollar cap. I really doubt they go with a 175 million dollar cap. Maybe they'll limit how much it goes up over the next 5 seasons or 3 seasons. But teams have not really pulled back on these types of deals.

 

Bosa getting a 5/135, Ramsey getting 5/105(from a Rams team that was already a little cap-strapped) for example.

 

These owners(and Murphy) have to have some indication that the Cap's not going to go down next year or I don't think they'd be making these moves.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't think it makes sense to reduce the cap. Cap is a maximum. I can understand removing any minimums... But if a team can afford the cap, they should be able to afford it.

[HiAndTight]

I think they find a way to stretch things out next year with some salary cap magic. The reckoning will be in 2022. I’ve always wanted the Packers to ‘go for it’ at the end Rodgers’ career, even if that necessitated a salary cap repair year or two afterwards. It just doesn’t feel like the Packers really ‘went for it.’

 

 

This is what's really baffling to me. I understand not trading for Will Fuller(especially if the cost was a 2nd round pick).

 

But to not go out and add a guy like Davlin Tomlinson or McLendon or Shelby Harris(who's really quietly a stud)...that just doesn't make any sense to me.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think it makes sense to reduce the cap. Cap is a maximum. I can understand removing any minimums... But if a team can afford the cap, they should be able to afford it.

 

I agree, especially since we're just talking about the short term.

 

The owners are still going to get the players to make some concessions since they could just hold the threat of a severely reduced cap that would crush FA's salaries, but the owners themselves are going to suffer in this case.

 

You'd have to imagine they've got some idea of what the Cap is going to go up over the next 3 years or so. So if you believe the Cap is going to take this massive leap to 260 in 2022 based on revenue sharing, you can limit the future increases to offset the loss of revenue this season.

 

Again, just based on how teams are behaving, it's obvious to me that they understand the cap won't be as high as they thought it would before Covid, but that they understand it'll likely be higher than the minimum they agreed to before the season.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think it makes sense to reduce the cap. Cap is a maximum. I can understand removing any minimums... But if a team can afford the cap, they should be able to afford it.

 

Linsley is so underrated. I agree he's likely a cap casualty after signing Bahk, but I think he's going to be missed badly. He's been arguably the best center in the NFL the last couple of years and it's such an important position. I wonder if they may move Jenkins there(with Patric backing up). If you're not playing Jenkins at Tackle...you might as well play him at Center. It's more important than Guard and harder to find.

 

Kirksey should be gone. I hope he does have a great second half and gets himself paid next year, but I think we're good enough at LB'er. Martin, assuming he can stay healthy has been awesome when he's been healthy. Barnes is a nice player as well. Summers provides nice depth and we've got all those draft picks we didn't part with.

Wagner is likely gone.

Lowry-Not sure. He'd only save you 3.5 million. But if you look at Shelby Harris, he signed for roughly that with the Broncos and would be an ideal fit in Green Bay(Milwaukee Native). He had a breakout year last year and then somehow still had to settle for a one-year deal. I'd gladly trade Lowry for Harris and it'd be that much better if you could do it without it costing more.

 

King has a ton of talent and he may end up becoming a stud elsewhere, but he has only shown flashes in Green Bay. If he'd sign for 3/18, I'd like to see that happen, but I think a 6'3 CB with his talent will fine one team that's willing to pay quite a bit more.

 

Preston Smith-I would look to restructure first. Ask him to take a pay cut and restructure. He should be able to read the tea leaves and understand he's not going to get 16 million on the open market. But they'd have to figure that out before his roster bonus is due.

 

Amos-He's overpaid but not sure you're saving enough to move on from him...especially if you're already losing King.

 

 

Since they decided to hold onto all their draft picks, I'd like to see the Packers take some shots in the draft.

 

A guy like Reggie Roberson Jr, someone who was a potential day one pick prior to suffering a knee injury, someone who can be used in Tyler Ervin's role but is closer to DeeBo's size and skill set. He's probably more likely to be a 4th or 5th round pick now.

Tyler Shelvin DT LSU-Opted out. He was the best run-stuffer in the SEC, but has had problems with his weight....ballooning up to almost 400 pounds from his ideal playing weight of ~340.

 

And Justyn Ross, the WR'er from Clemson who was considered right up there with Chase as the top WR'er in the draft but had spinal surgery for a congenital fusion...that would take him off some teams draft boards, would drop him down to a 2nd or 3rd for some teams. That's a guy who is back in pads, but won't be able to participate in any contact until next year. But at 6'4...he's an All-Pro talent and a guy who'd normally go in the top 10.

 

This off-season is going to be unique. Between the uncertainty surrounding the cap, all the players opting out and players who have suffered serious injuries, this off-season is really going to give this front office a chance to distinguish itself.

[PeaveyFury]

Amos-He's overpaid but not sure you're saving enough to move on from him...especially if you're already losing King.

 

Worth noting, Amos has rallied very well after his very slow start. PFF now has him ranked as the #15 safety overall, so that rating has climbed significantly over the past few weeks. The Packers do have an out on his contract after this year, but he's a player where I'm not sure you can take the $4 million you save and use that to replace him effectively.

[CheezWizHed]

Amos-He's overpaid but not sure you're saving enough to move on from him...especially if you're already losing King.

 

Worth noting, Amos has rallied very well after his very slow start. PFF now has him ranked as the #15 safety overall, so that rating has climbed significantly over the past few weeks. The Packers do have an out on his contract after this year, but he's a player where I'm not sure you can take the $4 million you save and use that to replace him effectively.

 

[sarcasm]Yes, it seems that players have been putting my posts complaining about their play up on the bulletin board for motivation. So, I'm doing my part.[/sarcasm]

 

Linsley is so underrated. I agree he's likely a cap casualty after signing Bahk, but I think he's going to be missed badly. He's been arguably the best center in the NFL the last couple of years and it's such an important position. I wonder if they may move Jenkins there(with Patric backing up). If you're not playing Jenkins at Tackle...you might as well play him at Center. It's more important than Guard and harder to find.

 

I don't think I underrated him, but feel that center is easier to replace... especially than LT. We already have Jenkins and Patrick on the roster that can at least play NFL level. Jenkins could probably play similar to Linsley's level over his career. And if you planned to move on from Linsley because you can't fit them all under the cap, he is doing a great job in improving his draft pick compensation back to the Pack.