Packers 2020 team discussion

[adambr2]

I didn't see a thread for this yet other than the weekly game threads. Anyhow, we're into Week 2.

 

So far, this team has surpassed my expectations. The impact of special teams has been minimal but not negative. The defense has been relatively as expected -- porous in spurts, especially on the ground, but able to make things happen at times on the back of a good secondary and strong pass rush. Jaire looks like one of the best corners in the game and Gary is coming into his own and now given us a trio of dangerous pass rushers. There's still little talent on the D-line particularly in Clark's absence.

 

The offense has been the biggest difference as they have been crisp and consistent as can be through two games. I am quite shocked to see them play this well as usually even with a full preseason the Packers take some games to get into a rhythm offensively. This year, it's been there from the get-go. Rodgers looks much more like his MVP self than the Rodgers of the past couple seasons. Aaron Jones has cemented himself as one of the top RBs in the game. The wide receiver depth after Davante has limitations, but they do enough and work well within our offensive system. The offensive line has done a tremendous job even with the absence of Lane Taylor.

 

Overall, they look like the Packers of the vintage Rodgers' years -- elite offenses and a defense that they hope can do enough to go the distance.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think this defense is way better than most of the ones Rodgers has had. It appears similar to the 2014 iteration but it's Week 3. I don't think it's a sieve they are relying on to keep opponents under 30 points, I think it has real opportunity to be good. If they're getting good snaps out of guys like Chandon Sullivan there is no limit to how good the team can be. You'll get a good idea this weekend. They play plenty of good QBs this year so there shouldn't much question as to what kind of team they are come playoff time.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They are doing a great job so far of shutting up the "Gary is a bust" truthers and, to a lesser extent, the "shoulda drafted a WR" crowd. Granted, I'd love to see another perimeter weapon, but there are only so many passes to go around, and the team has had no problem moving the ball through two games. It was nice to see the TEs get more involved yesterday. That group would have looked even better has Sternberger not had a couple ugly drops. Lewis and Tonyan are solid role players, and Deguara looked very good against the Vikings. Hopefully he's back soon, because I'm excited to see more of him. He looks like a player.

 

I see some fans continue to rag on the team because of the draft, and to me, those are just narcissists looking for something to complain about. It was obvious that the Love selection was made with the future in mind, so you don't want to see him contribute this year. But other than that, I expect Dillon to still be a major contributor this year, as Jones or Williams are going to eventually get nicked up. Deguara is already a major contributor. Kamal Martin was looking great by all appearances in summer, and should be getting playing time once off the IR. Runyan has been solid as an injury fill-in in both games so far, and will likely end up as a starter at some point down the line. Hanson is on the practice squad, but he might have a future. Stepniak is likely taking a redshirt year to get healthy, but he's an interesting prospect. Scott and Garvin have both been playing a lot of special teams, and have even gotten time in the base defense in both games, so they are already doing better than a lot of 7th rounders do. And of course Byrnes has looked great at ILB, especially for an UDFA rookie.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think they know exactly what they have in Dillon and will wait for cold playoff game or late-season big game and let him loose. That will be nice to do with a guy that has 70 carries to that point. I also doubt his pass blocking is up to NFL speed enough that they feel comfortable with him on passing downs. The way Jones plays there is no reason to rush it anyway.

 

I never had concerns about Gary. I wasn't confident he was any good but he's got to get on the field to make a judgment. The role players who are making big contributions are what has me excited. Too many times the defense has been 2-3 guys and a bunch of borderline practice squad guys just filling space. There doesn't seem to be an enormously glaring weakness on the defensive side other than the banged up DL at the moment.

[adambr2]

I think DeGuara fit well within the scheme we played using more TEs. I don't know if I would call him a major contributor so far, particularly being inactive yesterday, but he fits what we do.

 

We'll see what happens with Dillon, I would expect from what I see out of Jones that he isn't ceding any more carries than he already is to Williams anytime soon.

 

Generally the Packers last two drafts have been much more forward thinking. Which is fine. It's true our 2020 draft hasn't and won't impact this year's team much. I'm ok with people not liking it, it's just personal preference, there have been many Packer drafts I loved and some I didn't.

 

But the guys in charge of this team seem to know what they're doing evidenced by a pretty good 2-0 team and a boatload of offense so far this season.

[wallus]

So the key to a Super Bowl is making sure Arod stays angry and single right?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think DeGuara fit well within the scheme we played using more TEs. I don't know if I would call him a major contributor so far, particularly being inactive yesterday, but he fits what we do.

 

Well, he didn't play yesterday because he's hurt. He got the most snaps of anyone in the TE room against the Vikings, and played very well, especially blocking.

[PeaveyFury]

I wish I had looked at this thread closer before I posted a bunch of thoughts in yesterday's game thread this morning

 

I think adam's thoughts are really spot-on though. I'm convinced they need more help along the d-line and hope they're working on that, but I know it's not the TT/Gute M.O. historically to plug a hole like that in-season. I really think the run defense might be the only thing that looks like a weakness at this point, pending the inevitable injuries that will hurt other areas.

 

Still, about as good of a start to the season as anyone could have hoped for. Obviously, the team felt way higher about their existing personnel than us fans did, so far correctly so, which goes a long way to explain how the draft/offseason unfolded.

[adambr2]

Obviously, the team felt way higher about their existing personnel than us fans did, so far correctly so, which goes a long way to explain how the draft/offseason unfolded.

 

*raises hand*

 

Me for sure. I saw a paper tiger 2019 team that was a really hollow 13-3 team that would need a great deal of offseason improvement, particularly after getting dismantled twice by the 49ers.

 

As it is, the guys in charge here obviously felt that there was in fact a lot of internal improvement that could be unlocked within our existing personnel, and as you say, so far they have been proven correct in that evaluation.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Are we still firing Pettine today or nah?

[adambr2]

I think DeGuara fit well within the scheme we played using more TEs. I don't know if I would call him a major contributor so far, particularly being inactive yesterday, but he fits what we do.

 

Well, he didn't play yesterday because he's hurt. He got the most snaps of anyone in the TE room against the Vikings, and played very well, especially blocking.

 

Tonyan played twice as many snaps in Game 1 (48) as Deguara (24) and Marcades Lewis played 32. But it's clear that MLF wants his TE room to be more involved in 2020 and so far they have been. MLF clearly values blocking from his TEs as a skillset more than outside evaluators.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I mean, the team could still be a bit paper tigery but we should know soon. Minnesota got demolished again and the Lions lost to the Bears. At least we are running these teams out of building this year, not eeking out 4 point wins.

[adambr2]

Are we still firing Pettine today or nah?

 

Eh. I'm still not a big Pettine guy, I feel like this should be an upper echelon defense and I feel like we're getting less than the sum of the parts. But we'll see what happens, he obviously isn't going anywhere in 2020 and it would be good for everyone if they don't have a reason to move on from him in 2021.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think DeGuara fit well within the scheme we played using more TEs. I don't know if I would call him a major contributor so far, particularly being inactive yesterday, but he fits what we do.

 

Well, he didn't play yesterday because he's hurt. He got the most snaps of anyone in the TE room against the Vikings, and played very well, especially blocking.

 

Tonyan played twice as many snaps in Game 1 (48) as Deguara (24) and Marcades Lewis played 32. But it's clear that MLF wants his TE room to be more involved in 2020 and so far they have been. MLF clearly values blocking from his TEs as a skillset more than outside evaluators.

 

Drr ... my bad. Not sure what I was looking at.

[adambr2]

I mean, the team could still be a bit paper tigery but we should know soon. Minnesota got demolished again and the Lions lost to the Bears. At least we are running these teams out of building this year, not eeking out 4 point wins.

 

That was a really frustrating element from 2019. It was hard to ever really feel like we were good more than lucky. We won most of our games, but everything against every team seemed to come down to the wire.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Are we still firing Pettine today or nah?

 

Eh. I'm still not a big Pettine guy, I feel like this should be an upper echelon defense and I feel like we're getting less than the sum of the parts. But we'll see what happens, he obviously isn't going anywhere in 2020 and it would be good for everyone if they don't have a reason to move on from him in 2021.

 

I'm not a huge fan of the guy either, but I absolutely hated Dom capers. Just hated him, I have no idea how he stuck around as long as he did. I'm pretty sure he had nudes of one of McCarthy's family members. All that aside, the new guy has been here one year and two games. I think we got to at least give him a chance. He had a pretty talented defense last year, at least it seems like he did. And they were reasonably average. they started out rough yesterday and then they played a good game the rest of the way. They played pretty good against Minnesota until garbage time. And then they played prevent and everybody got mad for them doing what every single other team in the NFL does. We can argue if that's what teams should do but that's what they do. Conventional wisdom still rules the day in the NFL.

 

Neither Minnesota nor Detroit ever had the ball in the second half of either game with a chance to tie or take the lead. That's going to change the way you play defense and I don't really have a huge problem with it

[PeaveyFury]

All that aside, the new guy has been here one year and two games.

Cough... third season... cough.

 

I think he's living off a LOT of goodwill from 2018, where he took over Dom's horrendous defense and gave it life. Then they spent a ton of money and draft capital for 2019, and they still looked average.

 

He seemingly adjusts well and actually plans for his opponents, as opposed to Dom who seemed to 'trust his scheme' to a fault. But at some point, the results have to match the talent level. I know there's a talent issue on the line, but you have a rock-solid secondary and a really good LB corps, so the holes are very limited.

 

This feels like yet another year where we're going to win in spite of the defense, rather than with help from it.

[homer]

I wish I had looked at this thread closer before I posted a bunch of thoughts in yesterday's game thread this morning

 

I think adam's thoughts are really spot-on though. I'm convinced they need more help along the d-line and hope they're working on that, but I know it's not the TT/Gute M.O. historically to plug a hole like that in-season. I really think the run defense might be the only thing that looks like a weakness at this point, pending the inevitable injuries that will hurt other areas.

.

 

Howard Green disagrees

 

I have to think they can find some big toad who can play 1 or 2 downs a series just to stop the run.

 

I hope the offense continues to cruise because if they get behind it's going to be hard to get the other team off the field if they have any kind of running game.

[PeaveyFury]

I have to think they can find some big toad who can play 1 or 2 downs a series just to stop the run.

 

They'd be sooooo dangerously good on defense if they just had a Ryan Pickett-type along the front. Dom's defense actually looked good when they had a Pickett/Raji combo up front. They need a guy to go with Clark to make this defense work.

[PeaveyFury]

 

*raises hand*

 

 

I think we're all in that boat to some degree, though some on the internet/twitterverse faaaaaaaar more than others. It's hard to weed through the positive reports on the MVS and Gary-type players to determine what is just sports fluff and what may actually translate to on-field results.

 

Obviously, Love will determine the 'success' of the 2020 Packer draft, but I said at the time that it was the type of draft that would either get Gute fired or make him look like a genius. Two games in, the latter has the lead out of the gate...

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Man I'm surprised to see people going so hard on the defense. That defense got off the field a lot last year to save games. It's given up a bit of empty yardage but it's been decent for the most part. I think it's shown more than enough to inspire confidence it can evolve to being a top D by the end of the year which is all that matters. I don't put a lot of stock in defensive stats when a team is up 2-3 touchdowns. You can flip on any game and for whatever reason when that's the case, NFL teams seem to take their foot off the gas.

 

I mentioned the '14 team earlier but defense was also pretty meh most of the season. It wasn't until the end of the year it really became pretty good, to the point Seattle had 8 points in the 4th quarter of the NFCCG.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I mean, the team could still be a bit paper tigery but we should know soon. Minnesota got demolished again and the Lions lost to the Bears. At least we are running these teams out of building this year, not eeking out 4 point wins.

 

That was a really frustrating element from 2019. It was hard to ever really feel like we were good more than lucky. We won most of our games, but everything against every team seemed to come down to the wire.

 

More often than not that was due to the 2019 Packers offense not being able to dictate the flow of the game. So far this year that is markedly different.

 

14-4 and a lopsided game away from going to last year's Super Bowl IS way more good than lucky - they just weren't good enough in year 1 of a new offensive system. It was a weird season as a Packer fan because for so long we got used to having an injury-riddled but talented team with holes in key places that always led to the feeling of being shorthanded in the playoffs. In 2019 the real "luck" part to me was the roster mostly staying healthy throughout - but the frustrating part was seeing an offense with all its parts not being dominant with a healthy Rodgers leading it because he took a noteable step back in his level of play. It also was apparent their talent level wasn't where it needed to be on the outside due to a combination of personnel and experience. As others have stated, if MVS is a competent downfield threat and the TE personnel do a better job at catching the ball, this is a different offense than last season because of how balanced it can be - even if the WR room didn't get a huge addition.

 

On the flip side so far this year, I think the Vikings have a chance to be really bad and the Lions can't get out of their own way under Matt Patricia. I'm really looking forward to next Sunday night to see how they play against what appears to be another good Saints team before getting too optimistic on how a reasonably healthy season from this version of the Packers may wind up - thus far a seemingly healthy and rejuvenated Rodgers looks notably better moving within the pocket and getting the ball out on time.

[homer]

Man I'm surprised to see people going so hard on the defense. That defense got off the field a lot last year to save games. It's given up a bit of empty yardage but it's been decent for the most part. I think it's shown more than enough to inspire confidence it can evolve to being a top D by the end of the year which is all that matters. I don't put a lot of stock in defensive stats when a team is up 2-3 touchdowns. You can flip on any game and for whatever reason when that's the case, NFL teams seem to take their foot off the gas.

 

I mentioned the '14 team earlier but defense was also pretty meh most of the season. It wasn't until the end of the year it really became pretty good, to the point Seattle had 8 points in the 4th quarter of the NFCCG.

 

It's not just when they have a lead. The Lions went down and scored TDs on their first two drives. The Vikings did on their opening drive. So either they aren't coming out with any enthusiasm or the run defense is pretty bad. Once GB takes a decent lead and the other team is forced to throw that masks any run game weakness. We won't know for sure until they get into a close game.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I wouldn't read too much into opening drives. There's been zero preseason, zero tape on the new personnel/scheme teams have going. If they are still getting steamrolled to start games in November I would be a bit more concerned about it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This isn't just Packers-specific, but in general defenses appear to be getting dictated to early this year. It will be interesting tracking not only sack totals, but overall QB pressures per game on average. Taking crowd noise out of the NFL game gives a huge advantage to offensive lines getting great jumps on the snap, and it also puts Dlines on a passive footing against QBs that like to work a hard count.

 

The mix of blitzes that can't be disguised as easily, limited Oline false starts and even late starts at the snap that often lead to pressures or other offensive penalties, and the inability for Dlineman to get a jump on the snap for fear of hardcounts that can be used on basically every play are going to make it hard for defensive fronts to dominate the line of scrimmage and cause havoc in the backfield. There are many times when flipping through games that it looks more like 7 on 7 than a typical NFL game resembles.