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2020-09-21: Brewers (Woodruff) at Reds (Castillo) [Brewers lose, 6-3]


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I think it takes 5-2 the rest of the way to have a chance. 6-1 should be safe.

 

Remember when people thought that 25 wins would be enough. Now it’s getting to where 30-30 might not be good enough.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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Tonight was the game the Brewers had to have if they wanted to take 2 out of 3 in this series. The pitching matchups the next two nights are pretty unfavorable. At least Gray might be limited coming off the injury.

I think tonight was their toughest pitching matchup on paper (for the offense). Castillo has been otherworldly the last couple of weeks. Gray is dealing with some back issues, although I have no idea about the severity. I think they can at least make him labor and knock him out of the game in 6 or less innings. Bauer is on a day short of full rest, and even though he’s confident I wouldn’t be shocked if it backfires. Also, between yesterday (Sims for 2.1 IP) and tonight (Garrett, Iglesias) the Reds have already leaned on their best relievers the past two days.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Woody on his way to being 2-5.......he hasn’t pitched badly but we haven’t won enough of his starts.......puts too much pressure on everyone else

 

Not his fault he gets 2.77 runs of support. Corbin Burnes gets 7.03 runs per starts. All that run support gives Burnes a okay 5-3 record.

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I mean, it's the pitcher's job to get them out too. There's a reason strikeouts have been up every year since 2005 and records have been set every year since 2006. The harder they throw, the less time hitters have to react. When you have to make a decision on whether to swing a split second quicker, you're a lot more likely to swing at pitches that aren't strikes or just miss pitches that are just because of the pure stuff of pitchers now.

 

I feel like the strikeouts skyrocketing has a lot more to do with "launch angle" than pitchers getting that much better over the last 15 years. The graph of strikeouts per game and runs per game over the last 50 years don't really correspond with each other at all. Runs per game 15 years ago is about the same as now but strikeouts are up about 20% over that same time.

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I am still upset by the Arcia ab. I just can't believe that after all this time there was zero anticipation that he would not get a hit that he would even put the ball in play. Zero. I just can't understand how you can show no development and still be a big league regular. Oh well the fact is this week will probably end like it should and crew will fall about a game short.
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No kidding , can't imagine trying to hit that heat. But still, professional hitting is just lacking . Not just our team but everybody. Whatever happened to choking up and protect the plate , moving guys over. It's either strikeout or homerun lately.

With almost every pitcher hitting 95-99 , you would think these guys would try different ways of making contact other than swinging for the fences.

 

It doesn't really seem to help. The pitches have so much movement that you will still swing and miss a ton..and when you do make contact the defense is more likely to make a play. The exit velocity vs. hit probability relationship is so strong that under most situations you have to hit the ball hard. And when you do hit the ball hard, it jacks up your OPS which is the only number anyone is really looking at.

 

It's interesting to watch Vogelbach hit because he has a very compact swing and is pretty good at making contact. But even he ended up on the scrap heap after a relatively short period of struggling.

 

Maybe in the long run we'll see more contact hitters work their way up through the minors, but I suspect MLB will make hitter-friendly rule changes before that happens.

One reason I’m irrationally excited for Hedbert Perez (yes, just 17 years old) is he has a very compact, powerful swing. If he develops like you’d project a kid with MLB lineage then I think he could be a very special hitter.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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I wish they would move the rubber back a foot.

 

Either that or lower the mound. I also think robot umps are going to really help hitters.

 

Maybe to some extent as zones are usually bigger than smaller. However, there is an unreal amount of breaking balls not called strikes that clip the zone. Especially if the pitcher has a big looping breaking pitch or if it is at the top of the zone. That’s going to be a mighty wake up call for hitters if it ever happens. Not to mention many strikes are called balls too, it isn’t a one way street always benefitting the pitcher.

 

I like to lean it will help hitters more, but I wonder if it might end up not making much of a difference in the grand scheme.

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