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2020-09-21: Brewers (Woodruff) at Reds (Castillo) [Brewers lose, 6-3]

Eye Black

By Eye Black,
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Eye Black GOAT

Eye Black

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The bad news...

 

Over 107 career plate appearances against Luis Castillo the current Brewers hitters have a batting line of:

.134 BA / .352 OBP / .202 SLG / .554 OPS

 

 

The good news...

 

Over 81 career plate appearances against Brandon Woodruff the current Reds hitters have a batting line of:

.178 BA / .219 OBP / .294 SLG / .513 OPS

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Ron Robinsons Beard Biloxi Shuckers

Ron Robinsons Beard

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The bad news...

 

Over 107 career plate appearances against Luis Castillo the current Brewers hitters have a batting line of:

.134 BA / .352 OBP / .202 SLG / .554 OPS

 

 

The good news...

 

Over 81 career plate appearances against Brandon Woodruff the current Reds hitters have a batting line of:

.178 BA / .219 OBP / .294 SLG / .513 OPS

 

On paper this should be a 2-1 game ... but since it's 2020, I'm ready for 12-10.

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Ron Robinsons Beard Biloxi Shuckers

Ron Robinsons Beard

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So if my math is right, the Cardinals are going to be 2 games short at the end of this week.

 

 

Do they have to make those up? OR are we going by winning percentage

 

It was announced that they would have a double header with the Tigers next Monday if those games are needed to determine playoff participants. If they are just needed to determine seeding, though, they won't be played.

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sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

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Pretty crazy our run differential is back to almost even.......only negative 3 today......not too long ago it was in the -30s range......

 

I made a post in the lineup thread on August 30th noting our actual runs scored per game was 4.00 versus a projected rest of season runs scored per game of 4.84.

 

Actual runs scored per game since August 30th is at 5.05, much closer to the projected rest of season than the actual season results to that point.

 

A pretty good example demonstrating how projections typically have better predictive capabilities than 30 some games of actual results.

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willie key First Round Pick

willie key

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So if my math is right, the Cardinals are going to be 2 games short at the end of this week.

 

 

Do they have to make those up? OR are we going by winning percentage

 

It was announced that they would have a double header with the Tigers next Monday if those games are needed to determine playoff participants. If they are just needed to determine seeding, though, they won't be played.

 

 

Great they will beat Detroit by a combined score of 42-1 in that double header

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willie key First Round Pick

willie key

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Pretty crazy our run differential is back to almost even.......only negative 3 today......not too long ago it was in the -30s range......

 

I made a post in the lineup thread on August 30th noting our actual runs scored per game was 4.00 versus a projected rest of season runs scored per game of 4.84.

 

Actual runs scored per game since August 30th is at 5.05, much closer to the projected rest of season than the actual season results to that point.

 

A pretty good example demonstrating how projections typically have better predictive capabilities than 30 some games of actual results.

 

 

And playing different players

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sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

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Pretty crazy our run differential is back to almost even.......only negative 3 today......not too long ago it was in the -30s range......

 

I made a post in the lineup thread on August 30th noting our actual runs scored per game was 4.00 versus a projected rest of season runs scored per game of 4.84.

 

Actual runs scored per game since August 30th is at 5.05, much closer to the projected rest of season than the actual season results to that point.

 

A pretty good example demonstrating how projections typically have better predictive capabilities than 30 some games of actual results.

 

 

And playing different players

 

The new players (Vogelbach, Peterson, Nottingham & Taylor) have definitely helped, but they've only accounted for 147 of 743 plate appearances since August 30th, or about 20%, so the majority of the positive regression has came from players already on the roster...

 

Keston 87 wRC+ before 08/30 vs 122 since, Avisail 76 wRC+ vs 129, Gamel 61 wRC+ vs 144, Braun 60 wRC+ vs 207, Narvaez 59 wRC+ vs 74 wRC+ (276 PAs or 37% since August 30th)

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Devinep Draft Eligible

Devinep

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Gamel being hurt kinda sucks

 

Peterson again tonight

 

Wish they were giving Taylor more starts, but they are still leaning hard into the platoon matchups. At least Gyorko is seeing full time work finally.

 

It’s ridiculous. They should start taylor over Yelich vs lefties if they now love platoons to the point of not actually looking at production. There’s no legit reason to start Peterson over Taylor

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Eye Black GOAT

Eye Black

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So are we ok in saying that if Milw goes 5-3 this week, they should be in?

If they were to go 5-3 I’m confident they’ll be in the playoffs. There are probably some crazy scenarios that could still keep them out, but it seems like a virtual lock they would be in if they finish 31-29 and have those 5 combined wins against the Reds and Cardinals.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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