2021 DH (Pending)

[LouisEly]

From 2016-19 (Stearns era, pre-COVID) our 1B posted a 119 wRC+, 9th in MLB (tied with the Rays).

It's amazing how people think that Thames and Aguilar were terrible, and don't remember that, for all of his strikeouts, Chris Carter had a .821 OPS (and wRC+ of 113, and hit 41 HRs).

[monty57]

From 2016-19 (Stearns era, pre-COVID) our 1B posted a 119 wRC+, 9th in MLB (tied with the Rays).

It's amazing how people think that Thames and Aguilar were terrible, and don't remember that, for all of his strikeouts, Chris Carter had a .821 OPS (and wRC+ of 113, and hit 41 HRs).

 

I like Thames, Aguilar and Carter, but they had "warts" including being butchers in the field. Thames and Carter were both let go because the money the Brewers would have had to pay them would have been more than they were worth, and they both signed contracts elsewhere for less than the Brewers would have had to pay them. Aguilar was just having a really bad season, so they traded him away as he was hurting them in a playoff run.

 

The Brewers have several holes to fill, the most notable to me being 1st and 3rd base. It may make sense to put more emphasis on 3B, but it would be nice to have long-term solutions at either or both of these positions. I don't know if we have the resources to make it happen, and I don't want to fill one hole by opening another, but the corner IF spots should be their point of emphasis.

 

To the topic of DH, it would hurt to have one more year of no DH before instituting the DH in the new CBA. I would think that would mean that one of Arcia, Urias or Hiura should be traded when we could probably use them in 2022. Arcia seems to be the most obvious choice of the three, but if Hiura nets us a long-term solution at 3B, then we could move Urias to 2B and keep Arcia at SS.

[LouisEly]

I like Thames, Aguilar and Carter, but they had "warts" including being butchers in the field.

If they had "warts", then what did the 21 teams with a worse wRC+ at 1B over those years have?

[markedman5]

As I recall Prince was kind of a butcher in the field as well.......difference obviously is that when you post consistently good to great offensive numbers the warts on defense tend to be forgotten.......

[DHonks]

As I recall Prince was kind of a butcher in the field as well.......difference obviously is that when you post consistently good to great offensive numbers the warts on defense tend to be forgotten.......

 

That’s a huge understatement. I wonder if MLB has seen a worse regular right side of the infield than Weeks and Fielder. Both were well below average. Not only were they bad, but the numbers probably fail to fully quantify it since their defense led to the other players having inflated error totals.

[SomewhereInTime]

As I recall Prince was kind of a butcher in the field as well.......difference obviously is that when you post consistently good to great offensive numbers the warts on defense tend to be forgotten.......

 

That’s a huge understatement. I wonder if MLB has seen a worse regular right side of the infield than Weeks and Fielder. Both were well below average. Not only were they bad, but the numbers probably fail to fully quantify it since their defense led to the other players having inflated error totals.

 

We had Betancourt and McGehee on the left side too! And people wonder why Kameron Loe blew games sometimes.

[monty57]

I like Thames, Aguilar and Carter, but they had "warts" including being butchers in the field.

If they had "warts", then what did the 21 teams with a worse wRC+ at 1B over those years have?

 

wRC+ is an offensive stat. In the sentence you quoted, I said "including being butchers in the field."

 

As I said, I like those guys, and they filled a role on the team. First base is always going to be an offense-first position, but a poor-fielding first baseman makes your whole infield defense worse, so it would be nice to find someone at first base who can hit and field. I understand that those guys get expensive, but my ideal offseason would be one in which Stearns could find at least one solid corner IF (hitting and defense).

[djoctagone]

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that players want to keep the universal designated hitter for 2021, but owners want them to agree to keep the expanded playoffs for the 2021 season in exchange.

 

Passan adds that "players don't find that to be a particularly equitable trade" and that "some executives believe the universal DH will stick around, even if the MLBPA doesn't agree to the expanded playoffs." A decision on whether to keep the DH in the National League next season would seemingly have to be made relatively early in the offseason, as teams need to plan accordingly.

 

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Nov 4, 2020, 4:51 PM ET

[TURBO]

Buster Olney of ESPN writes that the universal designated hitter being used in 2021 is a "safe bet."

 

The DH spot is currently set to be used only in the AL in 2021, but Olney believes that will change "unless the MLB and players' union animus erupts to the point of complete dysfunction." Olney's colleague, Jeff Passan, reported previously that owners want to keep the expanded playoffs in exchange for the universal DH sticking around, although some executives told him they think there will be a universal DH regardless of whether the MLBPA agrees to expanded playoffs or not. The consensus is that the universal DH will almost surely be part of the new CBA which will be negotiated next offseason, and it wouldn't seem to make much sense to have a one-year gap without it before it becomes a permanent fixture.

 

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Nov 8, 2020, 11:44 AM ET

[djoctagone]

raise your hand if you're frustrated that the universal designated hitter hasn't been confirmed yet for 2021.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

raise your hand if you're frustrated that the universal designated hitter hasn't been confirmed yet for 2021.

 

Not me. I like seeing pitchers try to hit.

[Lathund]

I prefer no DH as well, but now that we've had a year of the DH and roster moves have been made accordingly, and it seems almost certain it will be implemented in the new CBA after this season, it seems silly to not have it in 2021 as well. Either way, DH or no DH, it needs to be announced officially soon.

[MrTPlush]

I don't really like the DH, but I hate the difference between the two leagues more. It is one of the dumbest things in sports that the two leagues somehow have a HUGE rule difference. How it has gone this long like that is incredibly....dumb.

 

The DH would obviously never get removed from the AL so lets just move on already and make the DH universal. Seems obvious to figure out a way to get it in for 2021, make all parties happy, and move on.

[pacopete4]

If pitchers had any interest in being competent hitters, I'd be fine with keeping the DH out of the NL but it has become just too much of a joke watching the pitchers look like Henry Rowengartner.

[Jaylyn]

I was always an opponent to the DH, until the Jimmy Nelson incident! Bring it back and make it permanent.

[Soupbone]

Maybe we could get a computer to simulate hitting. That way no one would have to run and get hurt.

[sheetskout]

If there is a DH, Hiura should be the DH. If there is no DH, Hiura should be traded. His arm causes continual problems in the field. He makes errors by overcompensation and has trouble turning the double play.

 

Had a thread on this last year and was BLASTED. I like Hiura, but people were so in love with the bat they weren't seeing the rest of it.

[wallus]

If there is a DH, Hiura should be the DH. If there is no DH, Hiura should be traded. His arm causes continual problems in the field. He makes errors by overcompensation and has trouble turning the double play.

 

Had a thread on this last year and was BLASTED. I like Hiura, but people were so in love with the bat they weren't seeing the rest of it.

 

You were?

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39282&hilit=hiura&start=20

[monty57]

I'd like to put a positive spin on Hiura's defense, but I can't.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=3_30

 

Out of 88 players who have a minimum of 200 innings at 2B in 2019-2020, Hiura is by far the worst defender. His defensive rating on Fangraphs is -10.4. The next worst is Ryan McMahon at -4.8 and Jose Altuve at -4.7.

 

Vogelbach is #24 out of 73 qualified 1B in the same time frame. He's not a great answer, but he's a much better defender at his position than Hiura. If we can find a solid 3b, I think we should move Urias to 2b and use Hiura as our main DH.

[sveumrules]

Hiura's fielding was always the big question mark, though "will he make enough contact?" has maybe overtaken the conversation at this point. Keston currently has 130 games & 1085 innings at second with metrics that look like this...

 

2019: 679 Innings | DRS: -5 | UZR: -8.2 | OAA: -9

2020: 406 Innings | DRS: -8 | UZR: -4.0 | OAA: -2

 

Two of the three had him less bad in 2020, but in samples that small there is a lot more noise. Around -11 to -13 for his career lines up with the eye test, but you can't get better without reps & 24 seems a little young to become a full time DH, so my best guess for 2021 is the Brewers will probably try to get Keston around 110 games at 2B & another 40 at DH, assuming that is an option.

 

Though If he can't figure out the approach/contact issues, the fielding stuff is all moot anyway.

[MrTPlush]

Why have him waste time trying to be below average at fielding? No need to sugar coat it, Hirua is never going to be average at fielding. Why let it get in his head on the offensive side of the ball? He could be a real solid bat if he can figure it out. Problem is that bat was about as useful as a pool noodle for the majority of the year.

 

There probably isn't a player in baseball that is more a more obvious future DH.

 

Unfortunately we don't have a decent 2B replacement option. If Luis Urias would have been even remotely competent last year I bet this would be a done deal and Urias would take over 2B. As we know Urias was far from decent.

[sveumrules]

The reason you give him more opportunities to improve is because even with as bad as he's been at second, he's still provided more value than he would have as a full time DH.

 

BRef has Hiura at -13 fielding, +3 positional, (-10 total) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -12 positional adjustment.

 

FanGraphs has a harsher DH penalty, so they've got Keston at -12.2 fielding, +0.8 positionsl (-11.4) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -14 positional adjustment.

 

If he can improve to say a -5 fielder at 2B, that would be almost a full win more valuable than the same offensive production at DH.

 

I also think when the DH comes to the NL to stay that Stearns & company will prefer the additional flexibility provided by rotating guys through the spot over having a DH only type player on the roster.

[jerichoholicninja]

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

[MrTPlush]

Considering how few balls are put in play these days, defense has become almost irrelevant.

 

Hiura would know a thing or two about that first hand.

[monty57]

The reason you give him more opportunities to improve is because even with as bad as he's been at second, he's still provided more value than he would have as a full time DH.

 

BRef has Hiura at -13 fielding, +3 positional, (-10 total) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -12 positional adjustment.

 

FanGraphs has a harsher DH penalty, so they've got Keston at -12.2 fielding, +0.8 positionsl (-11.4) for his career. The same number of PAs as a DH only would have netted him a -14 positional adjustment.

 

If he can improve to say a -5 fielder at 2B, that would be almost a full win more valuable than the same offensive production at DH.

 

I also think when the DH comes to the NL to stay that Stearns & company will prefer the additional flexibility provided by rotating guys through the spot over having a DH only type player on the roster.

 

But everything is relative. If there is a DH, someone will be the DH, so that player will get the "negative positional adjustment." The goal would be to make the whole team better, not specifically one player. As I mentioned in my last post, Vogelbach is better at 1B than Hiura is at 2B, so if the option is for one of them to get the majority of reps at DH, I choose Hiura.

 

Your last sentence points to one option, but if they can have a regular DH who can mash, while allowing a semi-competent defender to play the field, that makes a lot of sense. Urias was seen as a plus defender at 2B. We could have good defense up the middle with Arcia at SS, Urias at 2B and Cain in CF.

 

Plus, as MrTPlush said, "why let the defense go to his head?" Hiura can focus on hitting, and Urias is a natural 2B, and switching positions may have effected him as well.

 

But first, we need to find a real third baseman. Until we get that, the point is moot.