Badger Football 2020 (Latest- Headed to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (seriously)

[Oxy]

I think the best chance to get another elite QB prospect may come after next season when Mertz will be in his 4th year and any incoming player will see an opening in the near future at the position.

 

Long term, if he were to be a Heisman candidate and win some awards, that'll help out even more.

 

I was hoping this would happen after the Tolzein-Toon-Wilson years, but it didn't. Oddly, UW put A LOT of QBs AND WRs/TEs into the NFL from 95-2012 or so. Since then the talent at those positions has pretty much dried up. Hopefully that changes with Mertz and Dike and Skyler Bell and Markus Allen.

 

I love Abbrederis and Alex Erikson as much as the next guy, but it would be great to have guys like Chris Chambers and Lee Evans come through Madison again.

[homer]

UW has a pretty highly rated QB from California coming in with the next recruiting class.

 

Also, looks like Minnesota and Northwestern might get canceled.

[owbc]

UW has a pretty highly rated QB from California coming in with the next recruiting class.

 

Also, looks like Minnesota and Northwestern might get canceled.

 

The Big Ten made such a smart decision to delay the season until spring...until they reversed it because a couple of people complained. Now they will have a joke of a championship game that nobody is going to watch.

[PeaveyFury]

UW has a pretty highly rated QB from California coming in with the next recruiting class.

 

Also, looks like Minnesota and Northwestern might get canceled.

 

The Big Ten made such a smart decision to delay the season until spring...until they reversed it because a couple of people complained. Now they will have a joke of a championship game that nobody is going to watch.

 

I had the exact same thought this weekend. And that's not entirely with the benefit of hindsight- I've always thought that there was more of a chance of a normal-ish season in the spring with even the possibility of SOME fans. With an impending vaccine, they potentially flushed a lot of potential revenue down the toilet because they were concerned about losing revenue. Yech.

[homer]

UW has a pretty highly rated QB from California coming in with the next recruiting class.

 

Also, looks like Minnesota and Northwestern might get canceled.

 

The Big Ten made such a smart decision to delay the season until spring...until they reversed it because a couple of people complained. Now they will have a joke of a championship game that nobody is going to watch.

 

I had the exact same thought this weekend. And that's not entirely with the benefit of hindsight- I've always thought that there was more of a chance of a normal-ish season in the spring with even the possibility of SOME fans. With an impending vaccine, they potentially flushed a lot of potential revenue down the toilet because they were concerned about losing revenue. Yech.

 

This was done solely to placate Ohio State.

[owbc]

I had the exact same thought this weekend. And that's not entirely with the benefit of hindsight- I've always thought that there was more of a chance of a normal-ish season in the spring with even the possibility of SOME fans. With an impending vaccine, they potentially flushed a lot of potential revenue down the toilet because they were concerned about losing revenue. Yech.

 

This was done solely to placate Ohio State.

 

Yep. Which is the same reason that Ohio State will be named the Big Ten champion. I don't know which rules they are going to change to make that happen, but you can bet they will find a way.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The vaccine, even if it begins getting distributed in December, wouldn't have allowed much more of a chance for a full Big Ten season early next year anyways, college kids aren't going to be anywhere near the top of the list of people vaccinated, and fans who would attend games would mostly be at the bottom of the pile, too. I have doubts whether fans are in the stands in considerable numbers for any sports next year, too. Even after initially distributed, much will be unknown as to how long the vaccine prevents symptomatic response to COVID before requiring another dose to firmly get a handle on future flareups with COVID infections, so it's not like 100K people will be cramming into football stadiums next September. Even if that appears to be medically possible, there will be public anxiety towards resuming many of these activities full stop, so future revenues will be diminished and difficult to project for the next several years. The uncertainty of gameday revenues means all power conferences tried to get a season in now to get the revenue they know was available to them now, simple as that - even the Pac 12 where most of its schools are in states with much more onerous COVID-related restrictions related to team sports/gatherings.

 

Also, compare COVID numbers right now vs this summer when conferences initially made the decision to try and get a season in during the fall - there's no way planning for a football season starting 1 month or two from now would happen at the collegiate level. Back in August the concern was hundreds of people testing positive for COVID in many of these Big Ten states each day...now those same states have daily new case counts ~5-10X that, if not more. The mistake the Big Ten made was in not starting their season in September so it would have basically ended by now, and have a chance to build in some free weeks to allow for rescheduled games if necessary - but that's a hindsight = 20/20 comment.

 

The Big Ten opted to have a season this fall to avoid losing revenue they absolutely need now, so hopefully widespread athletic program cuts for nearly everything but football are staved off - yes it was also to try and get Ohio State as much of an opportunity as possible to get into the CFP, because getting a Big Ten team into the CFP is a financial windfall for the entire conference.

[tmwiese55]

Yup, my take is essentially the B1G was correct in not bothering with this. But they were incorrect in that they didn't foresee the backlash forcing them to play. If they had they could've planned accordingly like other conferences with makeup weeks put in place. The health guidelines and all that put in place by B1G seems solid but that all should've been planned out in the summer. Really, we pay the AD departments millions of dollars and it seems they sat on their hands all spring/summer like this was going to magically go away and then winged it at the end.

[PeaveyFury]

The vaccine, even if it begins getting distributed in December, wouldn't have allowed much more of a chance for a full Big Ten season early next year anyways, college kids aren't going to be anywhere near the top of the list of people vaccinated, and fans who would attend games would mostly be at the bottom of the pile, too. I have doubts whether fans are in the stands in considerable numbers for any sports next year, too. Even after initially distributed, much will be unknown as to how long the vaccine prevents symptomatic response to COVID before requiring another dose to firmly get a handle on future flareups with COVID infections, so it's not like 100K people will be cramming into football stadiums next September. Even if that appears to be medically possible, there will be public anxiety towards resuming many of these activities full stop, so future revenues will be diminished and difficult to project for the next several years. The uncertainty of gameday revenues means all power conferences tried to get a season in now to get the revenue they know was available to them now, simple as that - even the Pac 12 where most of its schools are in states with much more onerous COVID-related restrictions related to team sports/gatherings.

 

....Also, compare COVID numbers right now vs this summer when conferences initially made the decision to try and get a season in during the fall - there's no way planning for a football season starting 1 month or two from now would happen at the collegiate level.

 

I believe the discussed plan was for a season to start the last week of February/first weekend of March, so they'd have been looking beyond a January start. I know there were numerous rumors regarding how the format would look, though.

 

To your other point, I do think it's fair to assume that 100k fans in the stands in 2021 is an unrealistic assumption, at least based on what we know now. Still, the NFL is gradually allowing more fans in. The Big Ten would have had similar TV revenue, the same 8-game schedule, but the POSSIBILITY of having SOME number of fans in the stands come March/April, vs. the zero in-person revenue they have now. Add in the possibility that more high-risk staff and such could potentially be vaccinated by then, I do think there's a higher possibility that they'd have had a cleaner season in the spring than the disaster they're working through right now.

 

But, your point regarding a September start is certainly a valid one. Whether there'd have been additional revenue in the spring rather than then won't be known until we reach March/April, I suppose.

[LouisEly]

Yep. Which is the same reason that Ohio State will be named the Big Ten champion. I don't know which rules they are going to change to make that happen, but you can bet they will find a way.

Ohio State's last two games are against Michigan State and Michigan.

 

Wouldn't it be the ultimate rivalry screw job if Michigan just happened to get a bunch of COVID cases and had to cancel the game, screwing Ohio State out of the Big Ten Championship game because they will not have played six games?

[AKCheesehead]

I like the way you think,Louis.

[homer]

Harbaugh is certainly petty enough to do it.

[JosephC]

Can the Badgers even be bowl eligible this year?

 

Normally, leaving early really bugs me, but given COVID cancellations, no bowl chance (I think), little chance at a BIG10 championship, and his injury, I can't really blame him this year.

 

I totally get that thought process, but my big concern is where he gets drafted. I’m not sure he’s good enough to do this coming off a year with 2 games to show anything. Seems like a solid senior season on a good team would have boosted the draft stock. Now, with not much on film and an injury on top of it, how high in the draft can he actually go???

 

All that doesn't matter. Despite 32 teams getting up there and talking about "film" and "taking the best player," it's safe to say that 90% of the teams pour millions of dollars into that stuff and in the end just ignore it and pick players based on the 40-yard dash, vertical jump and 3-cone drill. If Wildgoose knows he can run a 4.40 40-yard dash and can vertical jump 39 inches, then he made the right decision. If he runs a 4.60 40-yard dash and has a 35 inch vertical jump, then he should have stayed in school. These days I just laugh when I see any mock draft done before the combine. Talk about a total waste of time.

[PeaveyFury]

I think 90% is high, but the percentage is certainly more than 0.

 

Wildgoose's measurables are eerily similar to Nick Nelson's, but Wildgoose was faaaaaaaar less productive than Nelson in his brief time here. Nelson also declared (too) early, ended up being a 4th round pick, and is now out of the league just two years later.

[MrTPlush]

I never get the fascination with deciding if a player left school too early or not. If a guy flames out in the NFL in two years clearly it didn’t matter when they left school, they weren’t pro material. Maybe it would have helped them get drafted slightly higher, but past that the end result probably isn’t much different.

 

He can just go back to school if he wants and get his degree if he flames out. Probably better in the end versus finishing school, playing football for a few years, and then trying to find a job with that degree. If he becomes a legit pro football player it will be enormous that he left early.

 

Some people (not saying anyone here) like to think their school is some magical place and another year of school would have catapulted them in pro sports as a big star...I doubt it makes a big difference. They get better amenities and time to improve their game at the next level...not college. Such thinking seems to be much more common in basketball...which may be a bit more relevant as being a first round pick is a much bigger deal than being a 2nd rounder or UDFA. In the NFL being a late pick or UDFA still gives ample opportunity if you are actually something worthwhile.

[PeaveyFury]

I never get the fascination with deciding if a player left school too early or not. If a guy flames out in the NFL in two years clearly it didn’t matter when they left school, they weren’t pro material. Maybe it would have helped them get drafted slightly higher, but past that the end result probably isn’t much different.

 

He can just go back to school if he wants and get his degree if he flames out. Probably better in the end versus finishing school, playing football for a few years, and then trying to find a job with that degree. If he becomes a legit pro football player it will be enormous that he left early.

 

Some people (not saying anyone here) like to think their school is some magical place and another year of school would have catapulted them in pro sports as a big star...I doubt it makes a big difference. They get better amenities and time to improve their game at the next level...not college. Such thinking seems to be much more common in basketball...which may be a bit more relevant as being a first round pick is a much bigger deal than being a 2nd rounder or UDFA. In the NFL being a late pick or UDFA still gives ample opportunity if you are actually something worthwhile.

 

I guess I disagree with most of this. I think you do have an opportunity in college to hone your game to not only potentially improve your draft position, but also to improve your chances of success. The learning curve in the NFL is increasingly short and in some cases deep. Too many guys struggle to catch on, and they're quickly disposed of. Yeah, the NFL does have better weight programs and such, but if you don't know the intricacies of how to play your position, you're going to be out of the league in two years like a lot of draft picks.

 

Especially coming off this year, which was A)short, B)weird, and C)injury-plagued for a guy like Wildgoose, I think it's extraordinarily relevant to debate whether the correct choice is being made.

 

And none of that is the question of motivating factors, which obviously plays a huge role in a lot of more-often-than-not poor decisions in declaring.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The vaccine, even if it begins getting distributed in December, wouldn't have allowed much more of a chance for a full Big Ten season early next year anyways, college kids aren't going to be anywhere near the top of the list of people vaccinated, and fans who would attend games would mostly be at the bottom of the pile, too. I have doubts whether fans are in the stands in considerable numbers for any sports next year, too. Even after initially distributed, much will be unknown as to how long the vaccine prevents symptomatic response to COVID before requiring another dose to firmly get a handle on future flareups with COVID infections, so it's not like 100K people will be cramming into football stadiums next September. Even if that appears to be medically possible, there will be public anxiety towards resuming many of these activities full stop, so future revenues will be diminished and difficult to project for the next several years. The uncertainty of gameday revenues means all power conferences tried to get a season in now to get the revenue they know was available to them now, simple as that - even the Pac 12 where most of its schools are in states with much more onerous COVID-related restrictions related to team sports/gatherings.

 

....Also, compare COVID numbers right now vs this summer when conferences initially made the decision to try and get a season in during the fall - there's no way planning for a football season starting 1 month or two from now would happen at the collegiate level.

 

I believe the discussed plan was for a season to start the last week of February/first weekend of March, so they'd have been looking beyond a January start. I know there were numerous rumors regarding how the format would look, though.

 

To your other point, I do think it's fair to assume that 100k fans in the stands in 2021 is an unrealistic assumption, at least based on what we know now. Still, the NFL is gradually allowing more fans in. The Big Ten would have had similar TV revenue, the same 8-game schedule, but the POSSIBILITY of having SOME number of fans in the stands come March/April, vs. the zero in-person revenue they have now. Add in the possibility that more high-risk staff and such could potentially be vaccinated by then, I do think there's a higher possibility that they'd have had a cleaner season in the spring than the disaster they're working through right now.

 

But, your point regarding a September start is certainly a valid one. Whether there'd have been additional revenue in the spring rather than then won't be known until we reach March/April, I suppose.

 

The issue with pushing a spring football season starting that late (Feb/March 2021), is that any delays COVID-related that would bring likely starts impacting the Fall 2021 football season in terms of players recovering...particularly if the normal ebb and flow of player injuries on the field in the spring wind up impacting their availability for another season of games starting just a few months later. A spring football season also jacks around a collegiate program's roster development in terms of upper classmen remaining the focal point and creating a logjam of underclassmen/redshirts/recruits that wind up costing kids playing time opportunities.

 

And let's be honest - any football games with ~500 - 5,000 fans in the stands happening right now aren't making teams any additional income, in fact they are likely losing revenue by having to staff stadiums with additional security, COVID protocol employees, concession vendors (tbh I don't know if those are even open), and crowd control employees to let in a small trickle of fans in right now. It's more of a goodwill gesture than anything at this point. Until we're at a point where stadiums are able to fill at 50% capacity or more and ticket markets somewhat return to normal demand, spectator sports aren't going to have that cash cow spectators typically bring with them to the stadiums on gamedays.

[MrTPlush]

They have to be making money on the fans being there...no way they are just doing it as a goodwill gesture. It ain't millions, but I doubt they are doing it for anything but $$$$ reasons.

[PeaveyFury]

The issue with pushing a spring football season starting that late (Feb/March 2021), is that any delays COVID-related that would bring likely starts impacting the Fall 2021 football season in terms of players recovering...particularly if the normal ebb and flow of player injuries on the field in the spring wind up impacting their availability for another season of games starting just a few months later.

 

Very valid point.

 

A spring football season also jacks around a collegiate program's roster development in terms of upper classmen remaining the focal point and creating a logjam of underclassmen/redshirts/recruits that wind up costing kids playing time opportunities.

 

Perhaps, but probably no more so than the current fall season not counting as a year of eligibility. You'll still have those going pro who are able, but you'll have a huge amount of guys that hang around for the extra year and create a longer-term logjam much the same way.

 

And let's be honest - any football games with ~500 - 5,000 fans in the stands happening right now aren't making teams any additional income, in fact they are likely losing revenue by having to staff stadiums with additional security, COVID protocol employees, concession vendors (tbh I don't know if those are even open), and crowd control employees to let in a small trickle of fans in right now. It's more of a goodwill gesture than anything at this point.

 

Based on nothing more than my own opinion and understanding of how the sports world works, I can say with the utmost confidence that there's almost a 0% chance that teams are letting fans in with the intention of losing money going forward as any kind of 'gesture'. They've almost certainly done a cost-benefit analysis to know exactly what they need to do, how they need to staff, and what their breakeven scenarios are. The Packers literally just told us that 500 fans was their test of their systems to determine whether their assumptions will work correctly. They're not doing that with the intention of keeping that number at 500, they're doing that with the intention of getting that much higher. Obviously it won't be 73,000 anytime soon, but I'd bet they're focused on 5-10k, and they know exactly how to do that and with the sole intention of making more money.

 

As college stadiums are even more cavernous than a place like Lambeau (or at least the Power 5 ones are), I think it's even more realistic for colleges to have developed a functional plan to get some modest number of fans in during the spring, and I'm certain it would have made them more money overall.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep. Which is the same reason that Ohio State will be named the Big Ten champion. I don't know which rules they are going to change to make that happen, but you can bet they will find a way.

Ohio State's last two games are against Michigan State and Michigan.

 

Wouldn't it be the ultimate rivalry screw job if Michigan just happened to get a bunch of COVID cases and had to cancel the game, screwing Ohio State out of the Big Ten Championship game because they will not have played six games?

 

Good call on this, apparently- Michigan/Maryland is officially cancelled for this weekend due to an outbreak within the Michigan program, and the status of Michigan/OSU is uncertain.....

[igor67]

I think Indiana being 2020 football champions is perfect on so many levels.

[wildcat83]

This team severely lacks WR depth. They need weapons for next season to emerge other than just Dike. I know Wisconsin doesn’t get many grad transfers but maybe that should be an area of focus. There has to be some graduate or juco kids that can help.

[homer]

This team severely lacks WR depth. They need weapons for next season to emerge other than just Dike. I know Wisconsin doesn’t get many grad transfers but maybe that should be an area of focus. There has to be some graduate or juco kids that can help.

 

I wonder if either of the seniors stick around. They aren't getting drafted.

[PeaveyFury]

After an evening to digest the 'final game of the regular season', a few final thoughts on this Badger season, even though there may be 1-2 games still left in it, unfortunate though that may be:

 

Complete offensive failure this year, which is astounding considering how this season started vs. Illinois and Michigan. Add in virtually no spring ball for the new players, a weird fall, and a mid-season COVID shut-down, and here we are. Chryst needs to take play calling back.

 

I think there's young talent on the roster, which is good since I don't feel that the 'old' talent is all that good. It looks more and more like guys like Dunn and Groshek, etc. are just taking up roster spots and playing because they're upperclassmen and hypothetically it's 'their turn'. More Berger, Dike, Chandler in 2021 and less of the other garbage.

 

The defense has continued to be good. Rough to give up 28 yesterday, but you had an offense that did nothing and kept them on the field all day. Hard not to finally have the floodgates open a bit at the end of that one. Lots to be excited about there, which has basically been the case for the last 7-8 seasons for Wisconsin.

 

Honestly, this o-line is not great for all the talent they have. Obviously, the injury at center hurt them immensely, but I don't feel like the holes are there. Not sure how many more yards a guy like Berger (or JT) would have been able to get yesterday, honestly.

 

Finally, the QB issue. I'm down on Mertz right now because there's a lot of reasons to be down on him. He also has a billion legitimate excuses he could use. But, his play is not good right now and one of the main reasons we're losing these close games. I now feel confident that A)anyone who thought that playing him over Coan last year would have yielded better results in that season is clearly wrong, and B)that starting having a healthy Coan and playing him might have resulted in 1-2 more wins this season. Obviously, Mertz is the future and the potential is there, but right now, he's Alex Hornibrook with less short accuracy.

 

Anyway, we'll see what the next few weeks brings. I think it's only right to try to get an axe game in, even if I'm depressed to think about what the results may be.

[PeaveyFury]

As widely rumored, the Badgers and Gophers will play next weekend in Madison for the Axe.