The Adam Dunn Case Study

[Fike85]

I am fascinated by statistics. I love going online and discovering the OPS, OXS, and VORP of my favorite players. But like many baseball fans I find statistics to be inherently incomplete. After all, statistics only show the effect of a players performance, and as we all know to every effect there is a cause.

 

The stats of Adam Dunn are out of this world. Thus far in the season he has 34 HRs, a .395 OBP, a .594 SLG%, a .989 OPS, and a 3TO of 50.3%. But the biggest drawback that Dunn has is the rate in which he strikeout. He set the single season record in 2004 with 195 K's and has 124 K's in 2005. You can't help but wonder what his numbers would be like if he cut his strikeout rate in half. Or can you?

 

Why is it that Dunn K's once every 3.18 ABs? From what I have seen and by all accounts I have heard Adam Dunn has an amazing eye at the plate. This is verified by his 84 walks on the season.

 

No, the reason that Dunn strikes out so much is because he swings for the fences. Although this causes him to strikeout a lot, it also allows his SLG% to be through the roof. (That and his eye at the plate, obviously.) If Dunn were to try and cut his K rate by simply trying to put the bat on the ball he would not have nearly as high a SLG% because he would not have as many HRs or 2Bs.

 

Adam Dunn perfectly illustrates how cause and effect in baseball, and that all that stats indicate is the effect.

[brettac1]

I think part of the reason Dunn strikes out so much is that he runs a ton of counts full. His eye is also so amazing that he takes a lot of strikes, because he doesn't think they are strikes. There are also spots where he is pitched where he won't swing, regardless of count, because he can't do anything with them. I think using K's to evaluate Dunn or similar players, like say Brad Wilkerson, paints an incomplete picture of their skillset. Dunn is second in the league in P/PA, behind Abreu (who also K's a bunch), and Wilkerson is 6th. All in all, I'd say that their K totals are an indicator more of their patience than their swinging for the fences.

[pogokat]

I think guys like Dunn take strikes that they know are strikes...

 

On the first pitch in the count, i bet Dunn lets some go by, just in the hope of seeing something better later in the count..I mean, If i could hit like Adam Dunn i know i wouldn't waste my time hacking at something in my armpits on the black on the first pitch...

 

of course, this leads to the aforementioned full counts..

[brettac1]

That's it, too. He is looking for a pitch to kill, as he should. He's looking for a fastball, I'd assume, in the spot where he wants it. If he doesn't get it there he'll take until he does, or until he K's.

[rluzinski]

If he tried to cut down on his K's he wouldn't walk as much and may not find as good of pitches to hit. His OBP and SLG would likely suffer. While K's are worse than other outs, on average the difference is very small.

[Ennder]

If Dunn were given Bonds' strike zone he'd be an absolute monster and wouldn't K very much. Instead he has the rep as a K guy so he never gets the benefit of the doubt on calls. Sure thats oversimplifying it and I'm sure he does swing for the fences more than normal players... but having watched both of these players a good amount, anything even close to being a ball for Bonds is a ball, anything remotely close to a strike for Dunn is a strike.