When is it time to worry about Christian Yelich?

[patrickgpe]

I'd be concerned if he isn't hitting by memorial day 2021, assuming there is a full 2021 season.

[patrickgpe]

I'd be concerned if he isn't hitting by memorial day 2021, assuming there is a full 2021 season.

[Eye Black]

Ian Happ is a former Top 10 pick, Top 20 prospect, career .838 OPS, and is 25. He is actually barely slugging more this year than last year. All his OPS improvement is OBP driven.

 

That doesn’t seem very weird.

And a switch hitter which historically is something that takes additional development time before achieving peak level of performance.

[Eye Black]

Ian Happ is a former Top 10 pick, Top 20 prospect, career .838 OPS, and is 25. He is actually barely slugging more this year than last year. All his OPS improvement is OBP driven.

 

That doesn’t seem very weird.

And a switch hitter which historically is something that takes additional development time before achieving peak level of performance.

[Eye Black]

Ian Happ is a former Top 10 pick, Top 20 prospect, career .838 OPS, and is 25. He is actually barely slugging more this year than last year. All his OPS improvement is OBP driven.

 

That doesn’t seem very weird.

And a switch hitter which historically is something that takes additional development time before achieving peak level of performance.

[owbc]

I think it's mostly mental. Pressure of a big contract + short season + the rest of the offense stinking it up.

 

It could be worse, his numbers are better than the eye test.

 

Agreed that it's not really a worry situation right now, we'll see how he looks when things get back to normal-ish next year.

[Jaylyn]

I think it's mostly mental. Pressure of a big contract + short season + the rest of the offense stinking it up.

 

It could be worse, his numbers are better than the eye test.

 

Agreed that it's not really a worry situation right now, we'll see how he looks when things get back to normal-ish next year.

100%, it's a been weird year all round, everyone gets a mulligan from me. Assuming next year goes as planned, if Yelich is around the same area this time next year, then I may be concerned. He'll come around though. I would give him a couple of days off to go and just relax, go for a hike, do something away from baseball for a moment.

[homer]

Cody Bellinger is hitting .218 with a .715 OPS.

 

Javy Baez is hitting .203 with a .601 OPS.

 

JD Martinez is hitting .205 with a .648 OPS

 

There's a lot of dudes struggling this year.

 

Max Muncy .198/337/395

Altuve 224/284/322

[LouisEly]

Kris Bryant - .593 OPS

Anthony Rizzo - .715 OPS

[owbc]

I assume Yelich is going to hit a couple more HR tonight since this thread popped up today.

[HiAndTight]

I'd be concerned if he isn't hitting by memorial day 2021, assuming there is a full 2021 season.

 

This. They're just over 45 games. This would be noticed, but hardly all that significant in a normal year.

 

Maybe we've seen the best of him, but I am not worried that he's become a below average hitter suddenly.

[sveumrules]

Over 2018-19, Yelich posted a 170 wRC+ & 15.4 WAR. Pretty insane numbers obviously, but I was curious just how rarefied that kind of air was in recent history.

 

2002 is when UZR for defense & base running encompassing more than just SB/CS started getting folded into WAR, so that seemed like a good starting point.

 

From 2002-19, there were 17 different two year stretches with a total of 2,229 qualifying batter seasons.

 

Of those 2,229 qualifying two year stretches only 15 (less than 1%) cleared both both a 170 wRC+ & 15 WAR. Six by Trout, four by Pujols, two by Bonds & one each by Yelich, Cabrera & A-Rod.

 

When Christian signed his extension, ZIPS projected him for about 30 WAR from 2021-2028 & that still seems like an attainable median outcome to me. Assuming no more pandemic shortened seasons, he will be paid 202.5 million for those years, or an entirely reasonable 6.75 million per WAR if he can manage to hit that 30 WAR projection.

[Eye Black]

A lot of Yelich’s metrics have still be very solid this year according to Statcast. One thing that stands out is Yelich has had 26 called strikes that were outside of the strike zone this year. That is by far the most on the Brewers (Hiura is next at 19 called strikes outside the zone). In Yelich’s case a lot of those have been early in counts where it has changed the complexion of an at bat. Getting down in the count early (not to mention on bad strike calls) puts the hitter at a significant disadvantage statistically speaking.

[3and2Fastball]

A lot of Yelich’s metrics have still be very solid this year according to Statcast. One thing that stands out is Yelich has had 26 called strikes that were outside of the strike zone this year. That is by far the most on the Brewers (Hiura is next at 19 called strikes outside the zone). In Yelich’s case a lot of those have been early in counts where it has changed the complexion of an at bat. Getting down in the count early (not to mention on bad strike calls) puts the hitter at a significant disadvantage statistically speaking.

 

See? Bring out the Robo Umps and Yelich will be fine!

 

That’s good stuff Eye Black...

[stoutdude04]

That's good news if true, but when you add in the eye test it makes it hard to believe. He doesnt look right and swings through and over a lot of pitches. At least according to this guy that watches from his couch and never played high level baseball.

[CheezWizHed]

Well that seemed to work. So who else can we worry about now?

[RollieTime]

Well that seemed to work. So who else can we worry about now?

 

A Narvaez thread might be helpful...

[CheezWizHed]

Good point. He has been frustrating to watch too. And past numbers say he should be much better also, yet looks mostly terrible at the plate.

[Lathund]

Good point. He has been frustrating to watch too. And past numbers say he should be much better also, yet looks mostly terrible at the plate.

 

Yeah he does look terrible. Garcia has been good recently, and even when he was struggling you could see a good player somewhere in there. But with that slow-looking heavy uppercut swing of Narvaez it's hard to believe that Narvaez was a 120 wRC+ catcher over the last couple of years.

[TURBO]

Hiura needs a thread too...

[brewers888]

I just saw a stat that Yelich has had 10 games with at least three strikeouts and he had a total of 11 over the previous two seasons.

[Pugger]

Cody Bellinger is hitting .218 with a .715 OPS.

 

Javy Baez is hitting .203 with a .601 OPS.

 

JD Martinez is hitting .205 with a .648 OPS

 

There's a lot of dudes struggling this year.

 

Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant have also been terrible, while David freaking Bote looks like Carl Yastrzemski. 2020 is a weird, sucky year.

 

Is it because of the shortened season where guys are pressing? Is it because there aren't fans in attendance for the players to feed off of?

[Pugger]

Hey this odd season and all that's going on affects people differently. There's obviously less passion about the game with a 60 game season, no fans in the stands, and political stuff taking center stage in the clubhouse at least at times. Winning anything this year comes with glaring asterisks. It will not take long for players to turn the page after this season ends. Yelich with his contract had leadership thrust upon him and he didn't have time to grow into that role. Cain opting out didn't help.

 

We're all hoping things return to normal next year with the virus and all the extraneous stuff going on in sports and the country calming down. That and time for players to start a season after a full 6 weeks in spring training will help the stars struggling this year. Baseball is hard. Focus matters. This "season" is proof. Good hitters struggling, almost every day one or two games with ridiculous lopsided scores, etc.

 

I really wonder if Yelich is the best person to have as a leader in the clubhouse. He is when it comes to the way he plays and he should be a model for younger guys but he doesn't appear to me to be a rah-rah kind of guy. We might be missing Cain's clubhouse leadership a lot more than we could foresee before opted out of this season.