Packers 2020(fairly optimistic) Predictions thread...

[HiAndTight]

To take my mind off the Bucks suffering the Gentlments sweep at the hands of the heat, I thought I'd turn my attention toward the Packers(and the next once in a generation talent we're likely to lose in the near future...so with that, my scattered Packers predictions!

 

 

WL Record

@Minnesota W 20-17

vs Det W 31-27

@ NO L 38-21

Vs Atl W 34-24

Bye

@ TB W 31-28

@ Hou L 27-20

Vs Minn L 23-20

@ SF W 17-13

Vs Jax W 38-13

@ Indy W 35-19

Vs Chi L 20-17

Vs Philly W 30-24

@ Det L 30-21

Vs Car W 33-14

Vs Tenn L 30-20

@ Chi W 20-16

 

NFC North

GBP 10-6

Chicago 9-7

Det 9-7(I think they played hard all year and looked good with RodgersStafford...and I'm one of about 5 people who believe in Matt Patricia).

Minn 8-8

 

I think the North becomes the best division behind the AFC and NFC West.

 

10-6 Tough schedule...just throwing it out there. Two obvious upsets would be TB and SF. I feel like we're going to be able to get after Brady and our secondary is going to play well.

SF...I think that's a break out game for AJ Dillon and the running game and Kirskey and the D with Raven Greene playing a HUGE role are going to help slow down that rushing attack that burtalized us twice last year.

 

 

 

Breakout players;

 

Robert Tonyan-Extremely athletic TE who's moved from QB at Indiana State to WR'er to TE in the NFL finally puts it all together in 2020. He catches 60 balls, 8 TD's and he improves his blocking again(Which was pretty solid last year).

 

Jenkins-Not sure he SHOULD be considered a breakout player, but you know how OL are. They're not always shown the respect right away. But with the new emphasis on running, I think he ends up finding his way to the Pro-Bowl this year, but makes a couple All Pro teams. Unless Nelson or Martin get banged up, likely as a 2nd team AP, but AP nonethe less).

 

The WR'er core...which has been highly scrutinized comes through as EQ St. Brown steps up big after missing a year and his pre-season performance translates onto the field.

MVS healthy now from an injury nobody knew about outside of the Packers last year becomes maybe not a "reliable" WR'er, but a big play threat.

Ervin, Jones, Wiliams all play a big role in the passing game.

 

BOLD PREDICTION-The Packers have one of the most effective passing offenses in the NFL this year in Aaron Rodgers second season...and makes people ask, "Jordan who?"

 

Finishes with his best year since 2016, 4500 passing yards, 35 TD's, 5 INT's, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, he doesn't miss the potential big plays he did last year(which was more last year than any other 3 seasons he's played combined based on my poor and factually incorrect memory).

 

 

Aaron Jones doesn't reach 1,000 yards again and falls well off in TD's as AJ Dillon gets more of the short yardage carries.

Dillon ends up with ~400 yards rushing, Williams ends up with about 400 yards(probably a little less) but is another strong reciever out of the backfield and the Packers finish in the top 10 in both total rushing yards, but also in passing offense.

 

 

 

Defense-

This is tougher. Whenever a team gets bit turnover numbers, that is almost certainly likely regres the following year.

 

The Smith Brothers end up with ~16 sacks, but still finish in the top 15 in QB pressures.

Rashan Gary gets himself 7-8 sacks and matches their pressure rate and knockdown rate while playing about 40 pct of the snaps. Based on how well it sounds like he's done in camp and how he's improved his pass rushing repertoire, a healthy shoulder and a 2nd year in the offense and the 22 year old SOOOOO many were ready to write off ends up having a VERY productive year 2 while Pettine and the D play with different looks, going with a bit of a 4 man front with Gary and Preston Smith outside, Clark and Za'Darius kick inside in passing situation.

 

But the rookie who makes the BIGGEST leap...Darnell Savage. The guy who showed SOME signs of the Earl Thomas-esque impact we were hoping from when we drafted the big hitting safety.

 

He doesn't create many turnovers, but he plays the run well and covers a ton of ground on the backend.

 

 

The Unsung hero, the TRUE breakout player...I was gonna go with Chandon Sullivan, but since people are high on him, I'll go with our Nickel LB'er, RAVEN GREENE. Greene came in and was a difference maker in week 1 vs the Bears, helping to limit the underneath passing game to the backs and the running game before suffering a season ending injury, he didn't get to show off the masive transformation his body went through in the off-season packing on the muscle.

 

He'll help in all facets and he's tough.

 

 

 

 

Biggest remaining Question Marks? What the hell are we gonna do on the right side of that OL. That should be a great run blocking OL, but if it's Turner starting over there, it's going to be rough.

And on the other side of the ball, that DL and it's run stuffing ability. 175 yards before contact in the NFFCG is going to end up a blowout every time.

 

My prediction is that after week 1 the Packers will add a veteran defensive linemen so they don't have to guarantee the entire salary. Hester, the one guy they did add is and...he's gone(or waived injured, so likely not helping this year). So I think at some point they look to upgrade that front, but I also think you'll see more Patriots type looks with Preston or Z Smith kicking down inside with Gary stepping up and playing at OLB'er. Not ideal, but should be better in the pass rusher and a helluva lot better than Lancaster.

 

 

 

Lots of reasons to question this squad after a mis-leading 13-3 season last year that's likely unsustainable, a NFCCG in which they gave up ~175 yards BEFORE contact and a passign game that was stagnant for much of the year...but year two in this Shannahan/McVeigh scheme is when teams have generally taken that jump. Hoping that's the case here with the Packers under Matt LaFleur.

 

 

We shall see, but I'm a big fan of Raven Green, Robert Tonyan, I'm warming on EQ and feel more optimistic after hearing how MVS was hobbled with an injury much of last year. The addition of Kirskley and then just Aaron Rodgers with another big chip on his shoulder.

 

 

I think it'll be a weird season...which is why I have them beating both the 49'ers and the Buccs but losing a couple games they probably should win.

[pacopete4]

10-6 is my guess. Playoffs and we will see if they are healthy/hot enough to make a dent.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Idk what to think of them. My head says heavy regression because they were such an unimpressive 13-3. But maybe the rebuilding of the roster for a couple seasons has paid off. I'm excited to see Dillon play and what kind of jump Allen Lazard takes. I'll be optimistic and say 11-5.

[MrTPlush]

All comes down to the defense in my opinion. They won 13 games cause their defense could close out games. I am a bit nervous because much of that defense had what felt like career years. Can they take another step forward or at least stay the same? I think the offense will be fine and even improve on last year.

 

I will go 9-7 just because their schedule looks pretty tough on paper. Start the year 4-4 or better and they are in really good shape considering the schedule softens a lot in the second half and it is mostly home games.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Tougher schedule, and they probably played above their heads a bit last year. But they were also playing under a 1st-year head coach and a new offensive system. I think the offense takes a step up this year, while the defense has perhaps has fewer big plays, but plays more consistently.

 

I think Gary puts up a 10-sack season and shuts up all the doubters. Christian Kirksey is also going to be very good in this defense.

 

Offensively, I'm excited to see Dillon get some run. They haven't had a bruising tailback like him since the days of Dorsey Levens (Lacy was a bruiser, but just didn't have any juice). Also excited to see how they integrate Deguara into the offense. My sleeper for a breakout is Malik Taylor. They really seem to love the kid, and dropped a valuable known commodity in Jake Kumerow to hang onto him, when they probably very easily could have passed him off to the practice squad. That tells me there must be something there that they really like.

 

I think this team's sweet spot is 11-5, with the possibility of a game each way.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't know that it's this year, but I still feel like Rodgers will have at least one old-man resurgence year where he throws 38 TDs again. I don't know that they have the weapons for it yet, but maybe.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t think they played over their heads...it just wasn’t a woefully difficult schedule last year and they went 13-3. Regardless of the schedule going 13-3 is impressive and they had some solid wins. They swept the division and had road wins against Cowboys/Chiefs. Yes, Mahomes didn’t play against the Packers, but that is still an incredibly hard place to play, elite offense, and pretty great defense. Mahomes or not it was an impressive win.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Over their heads isn't the verbiage I would use but they got lucky in that literally every one of those "either way" games bounced in their favor with the exception of Philly and Adams getting hurt. They deserve some credit for that but in a normal year you'd drop some of those. They got really lucky last year. Even the draw they got for the playoffs was lucky and sort of falling into the 2 seed.

 

I think the way SF embarrassed them twice spoke volumes, but it's a new year. Football is so volatile nobody's ups and downs really surprise me anymore. It's why I don't bother considering the schedule.

[homer]

13 wins is impressive regardless of how you got there. People remember San Fran but forget they beat a good Seattle team in the playoffs. They were good. They got very fortunate with injuries last year. We will see if that happens again. I don't foresee 13 wins but at least 9.

[PeaveyFury]

Tougher schedule, and they probably played above their heads a bit last year. But they were also playing under a 1st-year head coach and a new offensive system. I think the offense takes a step up this year, while the defense has perhaps has fewer big plays, but plays more consistently.

 

This is where I'm at as well. I'm optimistic that the team will play better overall and not need to rely as much on 'luck' as they may have last year. I expect a regression, but still a 10/11-win playoff team.

 

It's fair to temper expectations relative to last year, and probably very fair to wonder if they've done anything remotely close enough to allow for a closing of the gap with a team like SF, but they'll be far better than the Twitterverse's 'I didn't like their draft so I think they'll be terrible' crowd thinks they'll be.

[HiAndTight]

All comes down to the defense in my opinion. They won 13 games cause their defense could close out games. I am a bit nervous because much of that defense had what felt like career years. Can they take another step forward or at least stay the same? I think the offense will be fine and even improve on last year.

 

I will go 9-7 just because their schedule looks pretty tough on paper. Start the year 4-4 or better and they are in really good shape considering the schedule softens a lot in the second half and it is mostly home games.

 

 

I don't know how many of them had career years(meaning I'm not disagreeing, it's just hard to guess since they're pretty young) but I do think many had higher turnover numbers than should be expected.

 

I actually wasn't as high on King as some others are. I think his picks masked some risks he took and some breakdowns.

 

A lot of it will depend on if you can get 32 starts from the Smith's again and if they can both be top 10 in the league in pressures again. If you get that, Gary can keep them fresh, Alexander and Savage can both take a jump...then that might make up for the regression that's expected.

[HiAndTight]

I don’t think they played over their heads...it just wasn’t a woefully difficult schedule last year and they went 13-3. Regardless of the schedule going 13-3 is impressive and they had some solid wins. They swept the division and had road wins against Cowboys/Chiefs. Yes, Mahomes didn’t play against the Packers, but that is still an incredibly hard place to play, elite offense, and pretty great defense. Mahomes or not it was an impressive win.

 

 

Yeah, but it's always mis-leading when you look back at the schedule. Everyone was talking about how tough the schedule would be last year. The Chargers were a 12 win team, Dallas and KC as you mentioned. Chicago, Philly and Minny were playoff teams. Teams are so up and down. The Colts may flop with Rivers, everyone loves the Buccs with Brady but I'm not convinced he's got the arm strength to really thrive in that Bruce Arians system.

 

It's always hard to tell with the worst to first trends in the NFL who's going to be legit. Can the Bears defense be as dominant as it was in '18...can Trubisky be competent. Can Stafford stay healthy. If he does,Det is going to be more dangerous than I think people expect. There's talent on that team.

[CheezWizHed]

I'll do my predictions "Clue - The Movie" style with three alternative endings:

 

1) Vikings put Danielle Hunter on the DL prior to the week 1 meeting with the Packers. The Packers 2019 "luck" continues into 2020. Thus they will go 13-3!

 

2) The Packers didn't do much in FA filling their WR holes and are left with a mediocre offense. Even superstar Rodgers struggles uncharacteristically. He still hits the occasional home run play, but barely completes 50% of his passes. On the bright side, Rashan Gary breaks out in a big way and starts getting mentions for DPOY. But they finish with a 7-9 record.

 

3) The Packers start off red hot. They are owners of the #1 offense and #1 defense. Z-Smith is decimating opposing QBs as he is on pace to break the sack record. Teams build a wall of blockers to try to prevent him from getting to the QB, but he wrecks each one like a bowling ball blasting through the pins. Z is the consensus DPOY. However, the league is halted 3/4 of the way through the season due to COVID. The season is resumed, but the team now looks flat. Z-Smith suddenly looks human and the offense comes back down to earth. Even Crosby struggles to knock down his 3pt field goals. The Packers go 13-3 and get the second seed of the playoffs, but lose in the second round to an inferior New Orleans Saints team.

[pitchleague]

I'll say 9-7 IF they complete the season (which I have my doubts.)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3) The Packers start off red hot. They are owners of the #1 offense and #1 defense. Z-Smith is decimating opposing QBs as he is on pace to break the sack record. Teams build a wall of blockers to try to prevent him from getting to the QB, but he wrecks each one like a bowling ball blasting through the pins. Z is the consensus DPOY. However, the league is halted 3/4 of the way through the season due to COVID. The season is resumed, but the team now looks flat. Z-Smith suddenly looks human and the offense comes back down to earth. Even Crosby struggles to knock down his 3pt field goals. The Packers go 13-3 and get the second seed of the playoffs, but lose in the second round to an inferior New Orleans Saints team.

 

Too soon

[CheezWizHed]

3) The Packers start off red hot. They are owners of the #1 offense and #1 defense. Z-Smith is decimating opposing QBs as he is on pace to break the sack record. Teams build a wall of blockers to try to prevent him from getting to the QB, but he wrecks each one like a bowling ball blasting through the pins. Z is the consensus DPOY. However, the league is halted 3/4 of the way through the season due to COVID. The season is resumed, but the team now looks flat. Z-Smith suddenly looks human and the offense comes back down to earth. Even Crosby struggles to knock down his 3pt field goals. The Packers go 13-3 and get the second seed of the playoffs, but lose in the second round to an inferior New Orleans Saints team.

 

Too soon

 

Sorry. I mourn through sarcasm...

[bjkrautk]

10-12 wins and a playoff spot.

 

I'm hoping for a breakout year from Jace Sternberger. Last season, you saw the rapport with Rodgers start to build late in the season. If #12 is throwing you the ball in the red zone, there's some trust there; especially when he went to Jace in the playoffs for a TD after dropping one in the regular season. If the Packers do work more heavily out of multiple-TE sets, I think he's going to be the beneficiary of the new schemes...particularly if the ball comes out in-rhythm (which may be the one stealth benefit of our RT situation).

 

On defense, I'm hoping for Ty Summers to step up and have a productive year, since he's backing up a pair of injury-prone MLBs in Burks and Kirksey. When teams look to run on GB, and they will after the SF games last year, the team needs someone in the middle to close down the lanes and make tackles.

[homer]

I think they need guys on the D to step up to replace every snap that Lancaster and Lowry had last year.

[CheezWizHed]

L&L both had poor years last year, no doubt. But I wouldn't rule out a bounce-back year from both. I think Lancaster will benefit from reduced snaps with Keke taking more. A 50/50 split of what Lancaster did last year would help. Lowry just needs to get back to what he was doing the year before. He doesn't need to be a pro-bowler, just back to his solid play and not falling over backwards on running plays.

[HiAndTight]

I'll do my predictions "Clue - The Movie" style with three alternative endings:

 

1) Vikings put Danielle Hunter on the DL prior to the week 1 meeting with the Packers. The Packers 2019 "luck" continues into 2020. Thus they will go 13-3!

 

2) The Packers didn't do much in FA filling their WR holes and are left with a mediocre offense. Even superstar Rodgers struggles uncharacteristically. He still hits the occasional home run play, but barely completes 50% of his passes. On the bright side, Rashan Gary breaks out in a big way and starts getting mentions for DPOY. But they finish with a 7-9 record.

 

3) The Packers start off red hot. They are owners of the #1 offense and #1 defense. Z-Smith is decimating opposing QBs as he is on pace to break the sack record. Teams build a wall of blockers to try to prevent him from getting to the QB, but he wrecks each one like a bowling ball blasting through the pins. Z is the consensus DPOY. However, the league is halted 3/4 of the way through the season due to COVID. The season is resumed, but the team now looks flat. Z-Smith suddenly looks human and the offense comes back down to earth. Even Crosby struggles to knock down his 3pt field goals. The Packers go 13-3 and get the second seed of the playoffs, but lose in the second round to an inferior New Orleans Saints team.

 

 

Oh...that's brutal...though if you said Rodgers was having a record year as the QB, I think it'd be an even stronger parallel.

[HiAndTight]

L&L both had poor years last year, no doubt. But I wouldn't rule out a bounce-back year from both. I think Lancaster will benefit from reduced snaps with Keke taking more. A 50/50 split of what Lancaster did last year would help. Lowry just needs to get back to what he was doing the year before. He doesn't need to be a pro-bowler, just back to his solid play and not falling over backwards on running plays.

 

 

I don't know that Lancaster had a down year. He was awful his first year, it's just he was Mike Daniels backup, so we had lower expectations.

 

Lowry I could see bouncing back. He actually showed signs of being more than just a body who can occupy space.

 

I know this is down the road, but how cool would it be to bring JJ back to Wisconsin? If he signed as a FA, he'd be the same age as Reggie White(the player he most reminds me of).

 

Who knows what could happen these next two years, but I'd LOVE to see Watt play a few good years in GB.

[yourout]

9-7 - Injury bug bites early and often after last years good luck injury wise.

[nodakfan17]

I’m fairly optimistic. In a year with extra uncertainty, I think the Packers will benefit from a lot of year-over-year continuity. Getting out of the NFC will be a challenge, but 10-6 with a playoff appearance feels like a realistic expectation. Just for fun, here are some quick hitters:

 

1) Aaron Rodgers throws 26 TDs / 8 INTs, Passer Rating = 98.0

2) The entire NFC North will finish between 6-10 and 10-6

3) Breakout Player (Offense): Allen Lazard

4) Breakout Player (Defense): Chandon Sullivan

5) Biggest Disappointment (Offense): Billy Turner

6) Biggest Disappointment (Defense): Rashan Gary*

7) Adrian Peterson rushes for 100 yards vs the Packers at least once

8) Jon Runyon Jr. is serviceable in at least 2 spot starts

 

* I’ve already written off Oren Burks

[brewcrewdue80]

I dunno. Seems like an 11-5 team to me. Believe Rodgers is more confident on the offense heading in to this year. Defense has it's players. Crosby is good. We're starting the year with Ervin who is a huge improvement from what was KR/PR last season.

 

In a year where there's been no preseason games, I think GB's veteran side will show better than any team that is beginning the season with a new QB, New Coach, that type of stuff. Defense was really a proud group to rally around, I think those pieces being together can create a lot of havoc. Alexander and Savage to me will have really big seasons. Talking 5INTs or more for both.

 

I look at AJ Dillon and hope he's the bruiser they need beyond Jones who I truly wonder being a Trade off for somebody the team needs around the deadline and a pick.

 

TEs are going to be the offensive key I'd watch for on success. Tonyan, Sternberger, and now Deguara(he has to slot in TE spots at times right? Being possession controling mid field targets Rodgers and O utilize more.

 

Adams if the TE play is existent, is going to have a massive year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Game today, looking at Minnesota's Depth chart, Adam Thielman is about it for WR. They'll try to run Justin Jefferson as their #3. With a Healthy Defense, the Packers have got to shut this unit down fairly simple wouldn't you think? If they limit Cook to under 125yards even, where else will the offense come from? Do have to be concerned that the middle LBs will be Kirksey and Burks followed by Kingsley holding up.

 

I'm going go out and say Packers win 30-13 today. Crowd noise not going to be a factor. This could become a 40s to 10 laugher with a number of Cousins INTs