2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)

[DHonks]

This front office leans heavily to college players so don't expect our first round pick to come from the high school ranks.

 

Is this true?

 

Mitchell, Small, Ray, Jungmann

Turang, Grisham, Medeiros, Covey

[CheeseheadInQC]

This front office leans heavily to college players so don't expect our first round pick to come from the high school ranks.

I'd almost toss out last year as an anomaly in some regards (at least in the HS vs. College side of things) given that the team would have had much less of a track record to go by for prep players than normal. With the exception of the Small pick (and I'm guessing the similar profile might be sparking a lot of the Wicks predictions), the Brewers seem to be value chasers, especially among position players. Either the dropping guy (Mitchell, Turang), the guy who is going a lot lower than he would have a season ago (Turang, Gray, Cantrelle), the injured guy (Rasmussen, Hamilton, Zamora), the Can-he-play-catcher? guy (Warren, Dillard, Fry, Harrison).

[sveumrules]

This front office leans heavily to college players so don't expect our first round pick to come from the high school ranks.

 

Is this true?

 

Mitchell, Small, Ray, Jungmann

Turang, Grisham, Medeiros, Covey

 

Jungmann, Grisham, Medeiros & Covey all pre-date the current front office.

[brewmann04]

I take the flyer on Hogulnd

[patrickgpe]

Minus that they went all college last season (in a weird 5 round draft) and took a college arm the year before, I don't see much correlation. Brewers, more than most teams, need to get the BPA and someone that will actually contribute in 4-6 years.

[sveumrules]

2019 was pretty college heavy, with six of the first seven picks from four year schools & Kelly (from JC) in the 2nd round. First HS pick is Darrien Miller round nine, then six more college/JC before the 2nd HS kid (Kelvin Bender) in round seventeen.

 

2018 was pretty much the opposite. Four of the top five picks are HS with Ashby in the 4th from JC then Rasmussen/Fry from college in 6/7 with a pretty good mix after that.

 

2017 was a little more spread out with college, two HS, college, two HS through the first six picks then four college/JC guys to close out the top ten before a run of nine HS kids starting round eleven.

 

2016 tilted a little towards college with eleven of the top fifteen picks coming out of college/JC. HS picks were Feliciano (2nd), Henry (6th), Francisco Thomas (8th) & McLanahan (11th).

[patrickgpe]

Starting to see a couple of places the brewers being linked to Will Bednar. Really don't like late risers like him. Seems to never go well. Never saw him pitch but from what I read he does sound impressive. Does someone that follow this more closely than me have any opinions on him?

[sveumrules]

Another FanGraphs mock draft published today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/

 

15. Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

 

Like San Francisco, Milwaukee is believed to be lining up the second tier of college arms. This could be the floor for Hoglund. If their board gets blown up by a run on college pitching, then they might cut a deep deal with a college bat like ECU’s Connor Norby or Trey Sweeney of Eastern Illinois. Sweeney’s name is getting peppered throughout the rest of the first round starting here.

[sveumrules]

Starting to see a couple of places the brewers being linked to Will Bednar. Really don't like late risers like him. Seems to never go well. Never saw him pitch but from what I read he does sound impressive. Does someone that follow this more closely than me have any opinions on him?

 

FanGraphs mock I linked above has Bednar going 20th to the Yankees, so probably not a huge reach at #15.

 

Mentions in his blurb that "while scouts see his slider as plus, the computerized pitch graders based on spin and shape like it even more than that" which sounds like the kind of thing the Brewers front office might be keen on.

[narwhalattack]

Starting to see a couple of places the brewers being linked to Will Bednar. Really don't like late risers like him. Seems to never go well. Never saw him pitch but from what I read he does sound impressive. Does someone that follow this more closely than me have any opinions on him?

 

FanGraphs mock I linked above has Bednar going 20th to the Yankees, so probably not a huge reach at #15.

 

Mentions in his blurb that "while scouts see his slider as plus, the computerized pitch graders based on spin and shape like it even more than that" which sounds like the kind of thing the Brewers front office might be keen on.

 

If that's true, I can see Bednar being a better fit than Wicks. Maybe the FO really is enamored with Wicks, but I wonder how much of this connection to Wicks is because people think, "They drafted Small so here's another guy with a similar profile"

[nate82]

 

Maybe the FO really is enamored with Wicks, but I wonder how much of this connection to Wicks is because people think, "They drafted Small so here's another guy with a similar profile"

 

This is basically it. Wicks is very similar to Small and going by recent picks by the Brewers will have you putting him on your mock board. The Brewers are very tight lip on who they are going to be drafting it is one of the things Stearns kept when Melvin was in charge. It is very hard to tell what the Brewers are going to do I don't believe there has been a mock yet that has accurately picked who the Brewers are or were interested in. Actually after the first three picks it is really hard to pinpoint who is going to go where and the further down the list you go it gets even harder.

 

Basically these mocks are just guesses on who will be available and who the teams have picked in the past. I think Wicks is a solid guess due to the Small connection but I could see the Brewers going in a completely different direction. I don't think they will go with a HS pitcher as that is a very risky pick where they are picking and that just doesn't sound like something Stearns and company would do.

[Austin Tatious]

I hope we are solidly in the mix for Harry Ford, or somebody we don't expect falls out of the sky like Mitchell did last year. Turang was a value pick who also slid. I am not an expert in scouting pitchers but we can all look at their numbers and velocity. Wicks just doesn't sell me. I'd be fine with Hoglund if medically they like him. I have always liked Colson Montgomery's profile and he keeps pushing up the board. The swing seems a bit long but I have been comparing him with Corey Seager for months. I have noticed that the draft media guys are doing that too now. I hope we go for upside along the lines of Ford, Hoglund, Montgomery...not Wicks or another low upside pitcher.

 

The two picks we made that I absolutely hated in real time were Corey Ray and Kodi Medeiros. And I was proven to be right on both fronts.

[narwhalattack]

I hope we are solidly in the mix for Harry Ford, or somebody we don't expect falls out of the sky like Mitchell did last year. Turang was a value pick who also slid. I am not an expert in scouting pitchers but we can all look at their numbers and velocity. Wicks just doesn't sell me. I'd be fine with Hoglund if medically they like him. I have always liked Colson Montgomery's profile and he keeps pushing up the board. The swing seems a bit long but I have been comparing him with Corey Seager for months. I have noticed that the draft media guys are doing that too now. I hope we go for upside along the lines of Ford, Hoglund, Montgomery...not Wicks or another low upside pitcher.

 

The two picks we made that I absolutely hated in real time were Corey Ray and Kodi Medeiros. And I was proven to be right on both fronts.

 

At least it’s been said that they’ve been pretty heavily scouting Ford. At this point I think Bednar and Ford are my top 2 guys I want at 15. Not really sold on Wicks either.

[brewers888]

My guess is a 90 percent chance Wicks is the pick unless someone picks him before we pick.

[brewers888]

I believe in drafting for upside and Wicks is not that guy but I think he will be the selection.

[balsamlaker]

I don't see the Brewers going for a high school pitcher in the first round and I don't know if they go high school hitter unless it is one of the four shortstops that falls. Maybe Cowser or McLain drop to them as a college hitter, otherwise I think it will be a college pitcher. Bednar was one of the college pitchers I wondered about before the College World Series as a potential "discount pick", but I am guessing his recent performance takes that discount out of the picture. Maybe Madden?

[DR28]

I want Bednar, Hogland or Williams from ECU.

[brewmann04]

I would really like to take a flyer on Hoglund think he has the most upside.

[LouisEly]

I believe in drafting for upside and Wicks is not that guy but I think he will be the selection.

Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, and many other college pitchers who had mediocre college numbers turned into great pitchers once they got a better pitching coach in pro ball who made a couple of adjustments. Sometimes college coaches go for immediate returns instead of long-term development.

[Austin Tatious]

I believe in drafting for upside and Wicks is not that guy but I think he will be the selection.

Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, and many other college pitchers who had mediocre college numbers turned into great pitchers once they got a better pitching coach in pro ball who made a couple of adjustments. Sometimes college coaches go for immediate returns instead of long-term development.

 

You answered your own question. Your examples were fourth round picks, not the 15th overall pick. Besides, they have more electric stuff than Wicks has.

[CheeseheadInQC]

You answered your own question. Your examples were fourth round picks, not the 15th overall pick. Besides, they have more electric stuff than Wicks has.

Still second round, not first, but I remember a lot of low-ceiling complaints about Jimmy Nelson and he was proving anything but before the shoulder injury.

 

As far as Wicks goes, I think the reason he keeps getting mocked to the Brewers is two-fold. First, the Small similarities mentioned earlier, and second, the fact that pretty much anyone can see that the Brewers are lacking in pitching depth, especially at the lower levels. Hopefully getting a lot of the guys back from injury next year would help, but you could tell me that they were going to use 16 of their 20 picks on pitchers and as long as the value was solid I wouldn't be opposed.

 

At the same time, a lot of the services have him in the 12-20 range in their rankings, so he makes sense rankings wise. Even the Fangraphs one made it seem like they thought the Brewers would take a college pitcher and Wicks was the top one left on their board with Hoglund and Madden having come off the board in the two prior picks, even adding that they figured they'd go Hoglund if he was still available.

[Eye Black]

Even the Fangraphs one made it seem like they thought the Brewers would take a college pitcher and Wicks was the top one left on their board with Hoglund and Madden having come off the board in the two prior picks, even adding that they figured they'd go Hoglund if he was still available.

One of the co-writers of the FanGraphs piece, Kevin Goldstein, mentioned that the blurbs about where teams preferences are leaning was much more important than than the specific player mocked to a given team. In the Brewers case they seem to believe they are targeting college pitching with their early picks, but which players are available will obviously be based on how the board falls.

 

I personally am not that enamored with the college pitching expected to be available in the middle of the round, so I won’t be too upset if the FanGraphs belief that they are lining up for college pitchers proves incorrect.

[patrickgpe]

My guess is a 90 percent chance Wicks is the pick unless someone picks him before we pick.

because a couple mocks have him at 15?. Its fun to guess, but 90% certainty is a prediction, not a guess.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My guess is a 90 percent chance Wicks is the pick unless someone picks him before we pick.

 

So you are projecting a pick to the Brewers simply because you don't like the player's upside, and are using it an an excuse to get preemptively upset? I think you may be putting the cart before the horse a bit in this case.

[brewers888]

My guess is a 90 percent chance Wicks is the pick unless someone picks him before we pick.

because a couple mocks have him at 15?. Its fun to guess, but 90% certainty is a prediction, not a guess.

 

For some reason the mocks have been pretty accurate when it comes to who the Brewers were looking at especially when they have had relatively high picks. I think Hiura was mocked to the Brewers quite a bit and Medeiros is another that was universally pegged as our pick even though he was rated much lower. If Wicks is the guy hopefully he pans out but I prefer a higher ceiling talent.