2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)

[wibadgers23]

Prospects Live recently did a Mock Draft covering the first 63 selections (including 3 Brewers picks):

 

2021 MLB MOCK DRAFT 5.0

 

The write-ups also include a mention that the Brewers have had “top decision makers” out to see prep bat Peyton Stovall (currently mocked to the Cubs) and have attended several games for two-way college player Spencer Schwellenbach from Nebraska (mocked to the Cardinals).

 

I know it’s looking less likely he’ll be available at #15, but I am hoping the Brewers land Matt McLain with their first pick.

 

Has Alex Binelas' star faded that much where he isn't even in the top 63 picks anymore? I believe he was top 10 before the college season started and didn't have horrible numbers compared to his 2019 season. Batting average was about 30 points lower this year but everything else was pretty much in line and he actually had fewer PA this year. Wonder what's going on with his draft stock.

[balsamlaker]

I would say Binelas is going to still be a top 3-round pick, despite his "fall". It will be interesting to see how the Brewers, and others, try to tackle a 20-round draft. Will they try to make a discount pick like they did with Small and Hiura? Will someone fall to them, like Mitchell, that will cost full value?

[DHonks]

I would say Binelas is going to still be a top 3-round pick, despite his "fall". It will be interesting to see how the Brewers, and others, try to tackle a 20-round draft. Will they try to make a discount pick like they did with Small and Hiura? Will someone fall to them, like Mitchell, that will cost full value?

 

This is news to me. Small was an extremely talented multi-pitch lefty that consistently missed bats. Hiura was the consensus top college hitter available.

[Smichaelis9]

I would say Binelas is going to still be a top 3-round pick, despite his "fall". It will be interesting to see how the Brewers, and others, try to tackle a 20-round draft. Will they try to make a discount pick like they did with Small and Hiura? Will someone fall to them, like Mitchell, that will cost full value?

 

This is news to me. Small was an extremely talented multi-pitch lefty that consistently missed bats. Hiura was the consensus top college hitter available.

I looked it up because I wasn’t sure on either of them. Small signed for about $700k under slot and Keston was about $570k under.

[sveumrules]

Partial mock up over at FanGraphs with LHP Jordan Wicks of Kansas State going to the Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/

 

Longenhagen: There’s general mid-round buzz on Wicks.

 

Goldstein: The Brewers have a history of taking college arms and valuing command and performance as much as raw stuff, so Wicks fits the bill here.

 

They've also got RHP Sam Bachman from Miami (OH) going one pick later to the Marlins, who is super intriguing with an almost MLB ready two pitch mix, but also comes with higher risk on account of having more of a reliever profile.

[narwhalattack]

Partial mock up over at FanGraphs with LHP Jordan Wicks of Kansas State going to the Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/

 

Longenhagen: There’s general mid-round buzz on Wicks.

 

Goldstein: The Brewers have a history of taking college arms and valuing command and performance as much as raw stuff, so Wicks fits the bill here.

 

They've also got RHP Sam Bachman from Miami (OH) going one pick later to the Marlins, who is super intriguing with an almost MLB ready two pitch mix, but also comes with higher risk on account of having more of a reliever profile.

 

I personally prefer the guy with flashier stuff, but not really sure what to think since we've been burned by taking guys with flashy tools and we've also been burned by guys that have been touted to be polished. Such is the crapshoot that is the MLB draft

[brewmann04]

What about a real risky pick from Ole Miss who is currently out with an arm. He has a very high upside

[narwhalattack]

What about a real risky pick from Ole Miss who is currently out with an arm. He has a very high upside

 

As long as he can pitch with his foot

[bigred]

I would say Binelas is going to still be a top 3-round pick, despite his "fall". It will be interesting to see how the Brewers, and others, try to tackle a 20-round draft. Will they try to make a discount pick like they did with Small and Hiura? Will someone fall to them, like Mitchell, that will cost full value?

 

This is news to me. Small was an extremely talented multi-pitch lefty that consistently missed bats. Hiura was the consensus top college hitter available.

 

 

He wasn't implying that Small & Hiura weren't talented players. He meant both were players who would sign for much less than their slot value.

[sveumrules]

What about a real risky pick from Ole Miss who is currently out with an arm. He has a very high upside

 

Think Hoglund would have been in play for sure & maybe even off the board already at #15 had he not gotten injured. At this point he would probably be considered a reach at #15 with the injury, but will also probably off the board before the Brewers 2nd pick at #33.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Partial mock up over at FanGraphs with LHP Jordan Wicks of Kansas State going to the Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/

 

Longenhagen: There’s general mid-round buzz on Wicks.

 

Goldstein: The Brewers have a history of taking college arms and valuing command and performance as much as raw stuff, so Wicks fits the bill here.

 

They've also got RHP Sam Bachman from Miami (OH) going one pick later to the Marlins, who is super intriguing with an almost MLB ready two pitch mix, but also comes with higher risk on account of having more of a reliever profile.

 

And by this they mean the Brewers drafted Ethan Small, right? I mean unless I am forgetting someone, he is the only four-year college pitcher the Brewers have drafted in the first five rounds since the Webb-Burnes-Brown trifecta.

[DR28]

Damn, gotta imagine Hoglund will be there at 15. Would love to take a flier on him!

 

I've read that teams like him over Rocker.

[sveumrules]

Partial mock up over at FanGraphs with LHP Jordan Wicks of Kansas State going to the Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/

 

Longenhagen: There’s general mid-round buzz on Wicks.

 

Goldstein: The Brewers have a history of taking college arms and valuing command and performance as much as raw stuff, so Wicks fits the bill here.

 

They've also got RHP Sam Bachman from Miami (OH) going one pick later to the Marlins, who is super intriguing with an almost MLB ready two pitch mix, but also comes with higher risk on account of having more of a reliever profile.

 

And by this they mean the Brewers drafted Ethan Small, right? I mean unless I am forgetting someone, he is the only four-year college pitcher the Brewers have drafted in the first five rounds since the Webb-Burnes-Brown trifecta.

 

Not first round picks, but guys like Alec Bettinger, Nick Bennett, Taylor Floyd & Arman Sabouri were recent picks that fit the general profile of command over raw stuff college pitcher with results in a major conference.

[CheeseheadInQC]

And by this they mean the Brewers drafted Ethan Small, right? I mean unless I am forgetting someone, he is the only four-year college pitcher the Brewers have drafted in the first five rounds since the Webb-Burnes-Brown trifecta.

 

Not first round picks, but guys like Alec Bettinger, Nick Bennett, Taylor Floyd & Arman Sabouri were recent picks that fit the general profile of command over raw stuff college pitcher with results in a major conference.

True, but if you are digging deeper into the draft you will find examples of all types (Brady Schanuel for example was more stuff than results based). They have spent more picks in the top 5 rounds on upside JUCO pitchers recently than on 4-year college pitchers. While there is certainly a good case that the draft will be pitching heavy simply from an organizational standpoint, looking at the early picks of recent years, it seems like they are giving outsized importance to the Small pick when making their prediction because it was the one that was considered a reach at the time.

[Eye Black]

The Athletic did profiles on four rising draft prospects that are going to get selected, but aren’t necessarily 1st round talents. One of those players was Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (Fredonia, Wis.).

 

Article: MLB Draft Heat Watch 5.0

 

They included this Tweet with Video from our very own Patrick Ebert (colbyjack).

 

The article mentions Wisconsin has recently been home to elite draft prospects such as Gavin Lux and Jarred Kelenic. Regarding Miller specifically, he hit .667 in 50 plate appearances this spring and also pitched for Ozaukee HS. He is a switch hitter with above a average speed and plus arm strength. His older brother, Owen Miller was drafted by the Padres in 2018 and made his major league debut in May for Cleveland (he had been part of the Mike Clevinger trade). Noah is committed to Alabama, but is also expected to get drafted.

[wibadgers23]

I'd be pretty happy if we could get Miller with our comp pick or in the 2nd round. Very intriguing.

[balsamlaker]

Since Cowser, Frelick, and McLain are likely not to make it to 15, it seems to make me think a college pitcher will be their top pick. Even if they try to save $$$, that usually means a college player.

[brewmann04]

Wicks or Hogulnd

[Eye Black]

Since Cowser, Frelick, and McLain are likely not to make it to 15, it seems to make me think a college pitcher will be their top pick. Even if they try to save $$$, that usually means a college player.

It’s really shaping up where there are 5-7 pitchers expected to go in the middle of the 1st round. I’m a much bigger fan of using a 1st round pick on a hitter you believe has 1st round talent, but unless the Brewers use their extra bonus pool money to leverage an over-slot deal at #15 for someone like Frelick or McLain, I am not sure there will be any great options at #15 in terms of college position players. I do wonder if any of the high school position players might be intrigue them enough to select over the college pitching options at that pick.

 

Regarding the over-slot bonus idea, here is how the bonus pools of the teams drafting #9-#15 stack up:

 

9) Angels ($9,295,900)

 

10) Mets ($9,026,300)

 

11) Nationals ($8,770,000)

 

12) Mariners ($8,526,000)

 

13) Phillies ($8,295,000)

 

14) Giants ($8,070,600)

 

15) Brewers ($10,063,400)

 

Add in the fact that teams can go 5% over their bonus amount and the Brewers have between $1-$2 million more to spend on their draft class than any of the five teams drafting ahead of them. I doubt they’ll go too crazy with an over-slot deal for a player in the 1st round, but if they really liked someone a projected to go a few picks earlier it could at least be a possibility. It’s obviously easier to deploy such a strategy with high school picks that have more leverage due to the threat they can go to college if they don’t get what they want. Probably a little tougher to manipulate with college players, although there are reports the Red Sox and Jack Leiter are attempting to do just that.

[DR28]

Wicks or Hogulnd

 

I agree!

 

Then Colsen Montgomery with pick 33! Would be amazing start to the 2021 draft!

[brewers888]

I don't follow the draft all that closely but are the Brewers looking at any position players who happen to have plus bats. I think the organization focuses too much on up the middle athletes at the expense of hitting ability. Hopefully the team focuses on pitching and position players with plus bats.

[sveumrules]

I don't follow the draft all that closely but are the Brewers looking at any position players who happen to have plus bats. I think the organization focuses too much on up the middle athletes at the expense of hitting ability. Hopefully the team focuses on pitching and position players with plus bats.

 

Like Hiura or Mitchell?

 

A good mix of up the middle athletes & plain old hitters are off to pretty encouraging starts so far down on the farm...

 

(A) Joe Gray 299/395/679 (186 wRC+)

(A) Ernesto Martinez 290/411/527 (163 wRC+)

(A) Felix Valerio 331/422/512 (163 wRC+)

 

(A+) Garrett Mitchell 341/418/488 (182 wRC+)

(A+) Korry Howell 319/418/575 (168 wRC+)

(A+) Je'Von Ward 330/366/447 (122 wRC+)

 

(AA) Payton Henry 303/383/394 (119 wRC+)

(AA) Brice Turang 286/356/398 (113 wRC+)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't follow the draft all that closely but are the Brewers looking at any position players who happen to have plus bats. I think the organization focuses too much on up the middle athletes at the expense of hitting ability. Hopefully the team focuses on pitching and position players with plus bats.

 

Every guy they drafted last year, except for perhaps Zamora, has a plus bat. Mitchell, Warren and Cantrelle are all solid bats that also have top-flight athleticism. Weimer is a classic corner OF power guy. Even Zamora has displayed a good bat despite his rep as a defensive whiz. He was a guy who likely fell due to missing most of last season with an injury.

 

I think you are spot on saying that they focus on athletes, at least in the top part of the draft. The only time they really deviated from that was with Hiura. Jury is still out on that one.

[brewers888]

I don't follow the draft all that closely but are the Brewers looking at any position players who happen to have plus bats. I think the organization focuses too much on up the middle athletes at the expense of hitting ability. Hopefully the team focuses on pitching and position players with plus bats.

 

Every guy they drafted last year, except for perhaps Zamora, has a plus bat. Mitchell, Warren and Cantrelle are all solid bats that also have top-flight athleticism. Weimer is a classic corner OF power guy. Even Zamora has displayed a good bat despite his rep as a defensive whiz. He was a guy who likely fell due to missing most of last season with an injury.

 

I think you are spot on saying that they focus on athletes, at least in the top part of the draft. The only time they really deviated from that was with Hiura. Jury is still out on that one.

 

I disagree completely about Warren and Cantrelle being plus bats and even Mitchell who appears to be a very good prospect was drafted more for his athleticism than his pure hitting ability.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't follow the draft all that closely but are the Brewers looking at any position players who happen to have plus bats. I think the organization focuses too much on up the middle athletes at the expense of hitting ability. Hopefully the team focuses on pitching and position players with plus bats.

 

Every guy they drafted last year, except for perhaps Zamora, has a plus bat. Mitchell, Warren and Cantrelle are all solid bats that also have top-flight athleticism. Weimer is a classic corner OF power guy. Even Zamora has displayed a good bat despite his rep as a defensive whiz. He was a guy who likely fell due to missing most of last season with an injury.

 

I think you are spot on saying that they focus on athletes, at least in the top part of the draft. The only time they really deviated from that was with Hiura. Jury is still out on that one.

 

I disagree completely about Warren and Cantrelle being plus bats and even Mitchell who appears to be a very good prospect was drafted more for his athleticism than his pure hitting ability.

 

LOL

 

Warren hit .370 with an OPS of 1.079 in nearly 250 ABs in 2019.

 

Sounds like a punch and judy hitter to me!