2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)

[Madhawk23]

I know this version of the Brewers scouting department has focused on college guys but a kid that peaks my interest and being a fit for the Brewers is Harry Ford. Versatility is always brought up in his scouting reports. If he can't stick behind the dish could probably play any position besides shortstop. That versatility along with a reported quick bat makes him really intriguing.

 

I agree with you. In listening to the MLB Pipeline podcast yesterday, he was actually a guy that really piqued my interest after hearing Callis/Mayo talk about him. Like you said - we've definitely gone more of the college route in recent years, but Ford would be a really intriguing pick at 15 given everything that you already pointed out.

[balsamlaker]

Interesting BA Tweet today showing 45 current MLB players were taken in rounds that won't exist in the future. Chart also shows nearly one-third of current MLB players were taken in the top two rounds and about one-half in the top six rounds.

[brewcrewdue80]

I see that Mayo/Callis just released a new article today where they rotate picks for the first 20: https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-podcast-makes-top-20-draft-picks?t=mlb-draft-coverage.

 

Looks like they have us selecting C: del Castillo out of Miami. Would be back to back years taking a U of Miami kid in 1st round if this played out.

 

Curious what everyone's thoughts are on this kid? Also, I see that they have the WI kid Binelas (Louisville) dropping out of the Top 20 now. Anyone know why his stock has fallen so much this year? Just other guys moving up over him, or is he having a down year?

 

My Thoughts, are pretty known. No Catchers in the first 2 rounds of a draft. Their ceilings are extremely low, a good majority end up unable to stick at catcher, and you end up with a 700 OPS batter with the sludge athletic ability of a catcher trying to be fit at a position that bat won't play. High probability they are platoon bats. Listing successful catchers in last 10 drafts of 1st 2 rounds looks something like:

Brian McCann:76th overall 2011 2nd rd 7.3 WAR 693OPS

Kevin Plawecki: 35th overall 2012 1st rd 3.0WAR 653 OPS

Mike Zunino: 3rd overall 2012 1st rd 6.8WAR 665 OPS

Reese Mcguire: 14th overall 2013 1st rd .8WAR 725OPS 63games for a different team career

Victor Caratini: 65th overall 2013 2nd rd 1.3WAR 695OPS No games played for team that drafted him.

Andrew Knapp: 53rd overall 2013 2nd rd .8WAR 684OPS

Kyle Scwarber: 4th overall 2014 1st rd 26games in his career behind the plate.

Remember Max Pentecost? selected before Kodi Mediros at 11 that year. AA in 2018 highest reached

Tyler Stephenson: 11th overall 2015 1st rd. .5WAR 988OPS 48PA in 19games. Good start

Will Smith: 32nd overall 2016 1st rd 3.0WAR 921 OPS Best top 2 round pick for a C

Joey Bart: 2nd overall 2018 1st rd .4WAR 609 OPS

 

There are a lot of C drafted that have either never made it to MLB or have worse than 0WAR. The upside is so minimal as you can see. I just prefer hoping to find a ToR SP or a position player that has 10+WAR upside. Hated the Ray pick, Didn't like the Grisham pick Hiura was exciting for a bat pick. Turang had the upside. Lutz had the upside. Kelly and Small fit the ToR. Mitchell from Spring Training looks a guarantee to reach 10WAR.

 

Brewers have filled their minors with Catcher picks already that fit where I would take them

3rd 2020

4th and 5th 20199

3rd 2017

Feliciano was a 2nd rd in 2016 above my thoughts. 700 OPS type in the minors likely translate to so many of the above 650s at best in the Majors when the schedule gets longer for him.

Henry was 6th rd in 2016. 5 Catchers in last 5 drafts top 6 rounds taken.

[patrickgpe]

First mlb pipeline mock has binelas out of the first completely.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021

[Madhawk23]

First mlb pipeline mock has binelas out of the first completely.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021

 

What does everyone think of the Khalil Watson prediction for the Crew in this Mock? Seems like a short and skinny SS prospect, and not sure if I really see him as being one that our FO would draft in the 1st round. I know we took Turang as a HS SS 2-3 years ago, but he was also a kid that dropped significantly in the 1st round, and was probably hard for us to pass up drafting in the late first round that year. Any time you can get a Top 10 value in the late 20's, I think you have to take a kid like that. Not sure if I see us doing the same here with Watson at 14?

[wibadgers23]

First mlb pipeline mock has binelas out of the first completely.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021

 

Looking at his 2021 stats, he’s not having that horrible of a season imo. Power and OBP is still there. If he fell to us in the comp round, I would be very excited to get him.

[nate82]

My mock of who I think the Brewers will take with their first 4 picks:

 

15: Jordan Wicks LHP Kansas St.

33: Ryan Bliss SS Auburn

51: Alex Mooney 2B/3B Rochester Hills, MI (HS)

86: Zack Gelof 3B Virginia

 

 

Wicks reminds me of Small when the Brewers picked him. What intrigues me about Wicks is the changeup that he can work in with his low 90's fastball. Projects to be a #3 or #4 type starter. He already commands his plus-plus changeup and his fastball with precision.

 

Bliss is someone I can see the Brewers going after as he has a good bat but the question is does he have the power to play in MLB. He is a low strike out high contact type of a player who may have to move off of SS and go to 2B due to his arm. I am not sold on his arm at SS.

 

Mooney is a power hitting SS but will have to move to either 2B/3B as he fills out. He has the arm to play 3B so I think that is where an MLB team would try and move him to. Mooney projects to have plus power when he fills out.

 

I like Gelof here at 86 though he could go earlier if teams think he has the power to play at 3B. Gelof hasn't shown much power while playing at Virginia but this is mainly because of the coaching staff has them hitting like they are down 0-2 so it is mostly just a contact swing. Could Gelof actually have more power than he is showing in college or is he a low power hitting 3B? This would alleviate some peoples claims of just choke up on the bat and change your swing type comments as Gelof has been basically told to do this in college during every PA. Maybe this will help him when turning pro but I am not 100% sold on that.

 

I could see the Brewers going Pitcher, Pitcher and then hitters in the first 3 rounds depending on who falls and who is available.

[Austin Tatious]

One guy who I hope we target is Colson Montgomery. He’s coming out of high school and has played shortstop at around 6’4. He looks like he will obviously outgrow shortstop and will be a natural third baseman. He should be available with our supplemental A pick. In addition to his measurables and high level of skill, he’s a big time athlete. He has excelled at baseball, basketball (guard) and football (QB). He picked baseball. I think he profiles really well. He’s the type of prospect we’ve eschewed in the past. Frankly it’s been a significant, not minor, mistake. I hope we have somebody pounding the table for him and go get a kid like this. We don’t need another 5’10 shortstop or left fielder with limited pop.

[Roderick]

My mock of who I think the Brewers will take with their first 4 picks:

 

15: Jordan Wicks LHP Kansas St.

33: Ryan Bliss SS Auburn

51: Alex Mooney 2B/3B Rochester Hills, MI (HS)

86: Zack Gelof 3B Virginia

 

https://theathletic.com/2580901/2021/05/13/2021-mlb-draft-big-board-version-1-0-keith-law-ranks-the-top-100-draft-prospects-with-a-new-name-at-no-1/

 

Keith Law picks at those picks (I know)

15. Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, SC)

Taylor is committed to Clemson for football and baseball, a star high school quarterback who’d move to a wide or slot receiver role if he got to campus … but he’s probably never going to get there, as he’s flying up MLB Draft boards because of his athleticism, plus speed, and feel to hit. He’s a true centerfielder who’s put on some muscle since the fall and might end up with average power.

 

 

33. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville (NY) East HS

As I write this, Mack’s season still hasn’t begun — his first game is May 14, and his last June 17 — so this is still based on what scouts saw from him in 2020, where he showed a short swing geared for contact and a plus arm, with a body that looks well-suited to the rigors of the position.

 

 

51. Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman, Las Vegas, NV

Whitaker has attracted national scouts and directors the last few weeks for his huge power potential and plus arm that give visions of a 30-homer bat in an outfield corner, but there’s some leak in his approach and too much swing and miss. He reminds me a bit of Nolan Gorman at the same age, but right-handed.

 

 

86. Carter Jensen, C, Park Hill HS, Kansas City, Mo.

Jensen is a bat-first catcher with the chance for plus hit/plus power, which would make him a first-rounder if he were clearly going to stay behind the plate. He has arm strength but his technique and setup behind the plate both need work, and he’ll be a project for someone’s catching instructor once he signs.

[DHonks]

I sure hope we back off the catchers early in the draft. Our success rates hasn’t been good, and we’re two deep at catcher at every level.

[Madhawk23]

I sure hope we back off the catchers early in the draft. Our success rates hasn’t been good, and we’re two deep at catcher at every level.

 

I'm sure the argument is always that you take the "best player available" at every pick, but I would tend to agree with your suggestion of staying away from C's in this draft - at least with the first 4-5 picks. Seems like we have a pretty good pipeline already in our system of catchers at every level, and there are just much more pressing needs right now at other positions in our farm system.

[DHonks]

It’s supposedly always BPA, until it isn’t. Remember Doug Melvin talking about how Jungmann and Bradley would move quickly? Apparently how advanced a player is is often factored into their BPA evaluation. Besides last year, we’ve had about 6-7 straight pitching heavy drafts....I always love pitching, but I’m quietly hoping we load up on hitters at all positions, not just CF, SS, and C. I’d love some legit bats at 1b, 3b, rf

[Austin Tatious]

Good article on Colson Montgomery, who I mentioned previously. He sounds like an ideal prospect for Milwaukee.

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2021/5/17/22439025/2021-mlb-draft-scouting-report-colson-montgomery

[clancyphile]

It’s supposedly always BPA, until it isn’t. Remember Doug Melvin talking about how Jungmann and Bradley would move quickly? Apparently how advanced a player is is often factored into their BPA evaluation. Besides last year, we’ve had about 6-7 straight pitching heavy drafts....I always love pitching, but I’m quietly hoping we load up on hitters at all positions, not just CF, SS, and C. I’d love some legit bats at 1b, 3b, rf

 

For me, the bats I want to look for are Jeff Cirillo/Jon Lucroy/Lyle Overbay/Nori Aoki types. Legit bats, but more the high-contact, all-fields, type, not so much the 3TO/power type.

[DHonks]

It’s supposedly always BPA, until it isn’t. Remember Doug Melvin talking about how Jungmann and Bradley would move quickly? Apparently how advanced a player is is often factored into their BPA evaluation. Besides last year, we’ve had about 6-7 straight pitching heavy drafts....I always love pitching, but I’m quietly hoping we load up on hitters at all positions, not just CF, SS, and C. I’d love some legit bats at 1b, 3b, rf

 

For me, the bats I want to look for are Jeff Cirillo/Jon Lucroy/Lyle Overbay/Nori Aoki types. Legit bats, but more the high-contact, all-fields, type, not so much the 3TO/power type.

 

I think the way teams will combat the pitcher trackman era is with line drive hitters without extreme uppercuts, so we’re on the same page. I’d love a Cirillo, Overbay, Loretta, Mueller, etc type.

[clancyphile]

For me, the bats I want to look for are Jeff Cirillo/Jon Lucroy/Lyle Overbay/Nori Aoki types. Legit bats, but more the high-contact, all-fields, type, not so much the 3TO/power type.

 

I think the way teams will combat the pitcher trackman era is with line drive hitters without extreme uppercuts, so we’re on the same page. I’d love a Cirillo, Overbay, Loretta, Mueller, etc type.

 

I was hoping that Keston Hiura would be the one of those. Cooper Hummel, in an interview, seemed to be expressing a similar approach.

 

For me, the ideal type is the guy who draws a lot of walks and has an above-average hit for contact tool. I'm not interested in homers. Folks who could also reliably steal bases would be good, too.

 

Think the "fundamentals" from before the Moneyball era. Manufacture a run - even if that suicide squeeze means your batter is out. Execute the hit-and-run on a consistent basis.

 

Shaw's OPS may be low, but he's driven runners in consistently.

[narwhalattack]

I have a feeling that we may end up drafting Matt McClain. We do seem to prioritize up the middle players, and he seems to be within the 12-15 range in the mocks the last time I checked

[Madhawk23]

MLB Pipeline's latest mock has us taking Colton Cowser, OF from Sam Houston. Anyone have any thoughts/insight on this college bat? Is there enough upside still in his bat?

[PDCBalla]

I keep having this dream and hope that Rocker falls to us at 15. Maybe its because I feel we got lucky to have Mitchell drop to us last year but that would be amazing. Would love to grab him or one of the top college power bats early in the draft.

[Austin Tatious]

MLB Pipeline's latest mock has us taking Colton Cowser, OF from Sam Houston. Anyone have any thoughts/insight on this college bat? Is there enough upside still in his bat?

 

Article on him. He looks good. I kind of think he’s gone before 15 but you never know.

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2021/4/20/colton-cowser-standing-out-from-the-crowd

[Mass Haas]

Friday 5/28:

 

Via WSSP's "Sparky's Midday Madness": MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis (go to the 12:20 minute mark)

[Bnowell4evr]

If you go by MLB.com there's a solid group of players ranked through 15 but I'm not a big fan of Harry Ford. I just see too much risk with a HS kid who doesn't have an elite bat. I'd be happy with any of the others if they made their way to 15. If they were all gone and Ford was the only one ranked in the top 15, I would probably lean towards a safer pick and try to save a few dollars with someone like Michael McGreevy. Our system is devoid of any RH starting pitchers and I think he has the highest floor of anyone. He reminds me a lot of Joe Musgrove.

[nate82]

Latest MLB mock draft.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021-june-9

 

I think they are copying me for the Brewers 1st round pick.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Have had some downtime to look at guys for the first time in a good while. Not crazy about taking a guy like Hoglund. It’s not the same situation as Buehler. Buehler’s pure stuff was head and shoulders better before his injury. I’m actually liking a lot of the higher upside prep guys

 

Benny Montgomery- Probably one of my main crushes this year. The hitch in his swing can be fixed IMO. He is a 5 tool guy by definition and even with that little hitch in the giddy up the raw power he generates is probably close to the best in the class. Certainly has some of the best wheels in the class to boot. Saw some comps to Pence but I don’t think he is near as awkward and unorthodox. Have to believe in the hit tool and its improvement as he develops though. Up the middle guy so you know Stearns and co. have him high on the board.

 

Harry Ford- VERSATILITY another thing the crew really values. This kid could stick at C with our developmental staff or he could play second as well heck maybe even COF. Certainly has the arm and power profile. Did I mention he can run too? Haven’t seen a catcher with these natural gifts for a long long time. He’ll be comped to Biggio because of that rom the jump, but he can make a name for himself. Really powerful hack with little to no effort in the load phase. I think he hits as well. I’m a fan

 

Peyton Stovall- Smooth as silk swing. Can play a damn good second base at the pro level. Word is crew have been keeping a close eye on him. LAD have been extremely interested as well that should tell you something. Really really gifted prep hitter. Other tools lack but you can see the pop potential with the bat.

 

Joshua Baez- Classic projectable COF with plus raw power at the high school level. A lot of swing and miss. A lot. He is a massive high schooler though with a rocket for an arm. Swings as hard as his namesake counterpart in Chicago. Needs to make more contact. I have to watch more of him but he doesn’t really fit the Brewers MO.

 

Khalil Watson- Wont be there so I won’t bother. Big big fan. Top 5 teams will be getting a bonafide stud that is super advanced for his age.

 

James Wood- Another massive “kid” if you can call him that. A lot of swing and miss as well. Swing is a bit long but if he starts to make more contact as he develops you can see a Judge like profile.

 

Im not an expert by any means, but this is a really fun prep class with really interesting guys. I wouldn’t mind a college pitcher either but I really want to go for higher upside this draft with the 10th largest bonus pool. Let’s swing for the downs and land another future star!

 

Side note... I do not see anyway where we don’t draft Doug Nikhazy at 33 or in the second. He is just too weird and misses too many bats not to. Feel our analytical staff will be all over him in the same vein as Ethan Small 2 years ago. He screams Brewer and while I don’t love the raw stuff I love the competitor. I wouldn’t be upset if we do that given we go high upside at 15. It’s draft SZN! Looking forward to hearing more thoughts and opinions from everyone as it finally approaches.

[Eye Black]

Prospects Live recently did a Mock Draft covering the first 63 selections (including 3 Brewers picks):

 

2021 MLB MOCK DRAFT 5.0

 

The write-ups also include a mention that the Brewers have had “top decision makers” out to see prep bat Peyton Stovall (currently mocked to the Cubs) and have attended several games for two-way college player Spencer Schwellenbach from Nebraska (mocked to the Cardinals).

 

I know it’s looking less likely he’ll be available at #15, but I am hoping the Brewers land Matt McLain with their first pick.