Corbin Burnes

[markedman5]

Thought you guys might enjoy this

 

https://brewersandtwins.substack.com/p/there-is-no-shortage-of-hype-for

[markedman5]

Thought you guys might enjoy this

 

https://brewersandtwins.substack.com/p/there-is-no-shortage-of-hype-for

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Corbin Burnes now ranks 6th in all of MLB for starting pitchers with a 1.99 era.

Bieber, Darvish, DeGrom, Bauer, Fried are ahead of him. Not too shabby.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Burnes is all over the NL leaderboard. Second in k per 9. I think 6th in strikeouts. First in hits allowed for 9 innings and 6th in Whip. Hard to believe he was one of the worst pitchers in the league last year.

[CheezWizHed]

Burnes is all over the NL leaderboard. Second in k per 9. I think 6th in strikeouts. First in hits allowed for 9 innings and 6th in Whip. Hard to believe he was one of the worst pitchers in the league last year.

 

Worst results... He got a LOT of offseason press (not just local either) about his skill set. Dude has made quite a turnaround.

[sveumrules]

Burnes is a great example for how unreliable ERA is as a true talent indicator in small samples compared to xFIP...

 

2018: 38 IP | 64 ERA- | 93 xFIP-

2019: 49 IP | 199 ERA- | 76 xFIP-

2020: 45 IP | 43 ERA- | 70 xFIP-

[pacopete4]

Are you saying that Burnes was a good pitcher in 2019? Because he was flat out awful. That talent is there but if any indicators think that he was good a season ago, oh my.

[stoutdude04]

Are you saying that Burnes was a good pitcher in 2019? Because he was flat out awful. That talent is there but if any indicators think that he was good a season ago, oh my.

 

I'm thinking hes saying a small sample can have a huge variance. Which most everyone realizes.

[markedman5]

Burnes is a great example for how unreliable ERA is as a true talent indicator in small samples compared to xFIP...

 

2018: 38 IP | 64 ERA- | 93 xFIP-

2019: 49 IP | 199 ERA- | 76 xFIP-

2020: 45 IP | 43 ERA- | 70 xFIP-

 

So is XFip suggesting that Burnes was mostly unlucky in 2019 when he gave up all those homers which destroyed his era?

 

I’m trying to understand how his xfip last season was so close to this years number?

 

I just can’t reconcile those numbers when watching him pitch........he looks like a completely different pitcher and all of his other numbers seem to back that up.

 

I did notice his babip last season was .414 compared to .233 this year.......but I also thought I read somewhere that his hard hit percentage or exit velocity allowed was also down from last year.?

[sveumrules]

Burnes is a great example for how unreliable ERA is as a true talent indicator in small samples compared to xFIP...

 

2018: 38 IP | 64 ERA- | 93 xFIP-

2019: 49 IP | 199 ERA- | 76 xFIP-

2020: 45 IP | 43 ERA- | 70 xFIP-

 

So is XFip suggesting that Burnes was mostly unlucky in 2019 when he gave up all those homers which destroyed his era?

 

I’m trying to understand how his xfip last season was so close to this years number?

 

I just can’t reconcile those numbers when watching him pitch........he looks like a completely different pitcher and all of his other numbers seem to back that up.

 

I did notice his babip last season was .414 compared to .233 this year.......but I also thought I read somewhere that his hard hit percentage or exit velocity allowed was also down from last year.?

 

Yes, xFIP normalizes HR/FB rate because it can be fluky over a full season, much less in smaller samples.

 

There are 6,747 individual seasons with at least 40 IP since 2002 when HR/FB% is available on FanGraphs leaderboards.

 

Corbin's 38.6% HR/FB rate in 2019 is 6,747th in the sample & it's not really close, only two more over 30% & essentially only five seasons within 10%.

 

In 2019 his K9+ was 144 vs a BB9+ of 111 for a K/BB+ of 129 compared to a K9+ of 141 vs a BB9+ of 105 for a K/BB+ of 134 in 2020, so only off by a handful of percentage points in terms of Ks & BBs.

 

HR9+ was 229 in 2019 vs 14 so far in 2020, so xFIP is suggesting his 2.9% HR/FB rate so far this year is just about as unsustainable (but in the opposite direction) of his 38.6 HR/FB% last year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I would definitely agree that there had to be some degree of bad luck to give up that many homers in that small of a sample size but he wasn't locating his pitch is very well last year. He was leaving fastballs up. His sequencing wasn't great. you can look at the numbers and say he performed better than the numbers, but there's a lot more to the numbers as well. There was some bad luck and he worked on some things. He's been really good this year. Absolutely no doubt about it but I don't think he's the same guy he was last year I think he's improved

[adambr2]

I would definitely agree that there had to be some degree of bad luck to give up that many homers in that small of a sample size but he wasn't locating his pitch is very well last year. He was leaving fastballs up. His sequencing wasn't great. you can look at the numbers and say he performed better than the numbers, but there's a lot more to the numbers as well. There was some bad luck and he worked on some things. He's been really good this year. Absolutely no doubt about it but I don't think he's the same guy he was last year I think he's improved

 

Agreed, he was both not very good and had horrible luck as well. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

The horrible luck definitely fit with the eye test too, though. Usually pitchers get away with some mistakes and it felt like every single mistake Burnes left up last year left the ballpark.

[markedman5]

I would definitely agree that there had to be some degree of bad luck to give up that many homers in that small of a sample size but he wasn't locating his pitch is very well last year. He was leaving fastballs up. His sequencing wasn't great. you can look at the numbers and say he performed better than the numbers, but there's a lot more to the numbers as well. There was some bad luck and he worked on some things. He's been really good this year. Absolutely no doubt about it but I don't think he's the same guy he was last year I think he's improved

 

Agreed, he was both not very good and had horrible luck as well. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

The horrible luck definitely fit with the eye test too, though. Usually pitchers get away with some mistakes and it felt like every single mistake Burnes left up last year left the ballpark.

 

Yep and as an example of his better luck this year that triple gave up yesterday would have been a homer in every other park according to a tweet I saw.

[AKCheesehead]

I thought that triple was long gone when I saw it yesterday. Burnes getting out of it unscathed man on 3rd one out after losing the perfect game was really a good show of poise I thought.

[zurch1818]

Sorry...this is coming from a non mobile friendly website as the Brewerfan Tapatalk is still down. I miss Brewerfan Tapatalk. It has at least been working for the political forum.

 

According to statcast, last year Corbin Burnes was both excellent and terrible at the same time. He struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced....but he also had a barrel % and xslg that was more towards the bottom of the league. Translation: when Corbin got hit last year...he got hit hard. That isn't necessarily "luck".

 

Stats like xfip look at strikeouts and fb rates but do not look at exit velocity...which may be why he had lower xfip. This is why the eye test is important. Even if you don't understand statcast data. Just check out his percentile rankings between 2019 and 2020. Strikeout data is virtually identical compared to a lot of his other stats.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/corbin-burnes-669203

 

2020 Statcast says he maybe regress a little bit from where he is now...but I think part of it is he is a different pitcher and has changed his arsenal. It looks like he nearly abandoned his 4 seamer in favor of a sinker and cutter. This season appears to be no fluke. Stay tuned.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs tries to make sense of it all...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corbin-burnes-and-the-ways-we-try-to-make-sense-of-all-of-this/

[3and2Fastball]

I’m just completely thrilled that Stearns and the Brewers didn’t give up on him. He was flat out filthy in the 2018 stretch run and postseason.

 

Between Burnes and Woodruff, maybe just maybe the new reality is that the Brewers can indeed draft and develop pitchers!!!

[markedman5]

So is their a difference between a 2 seamer and a cutter? Both move the opposite direction of a slider so I’m a bit confused.

[zurch1818]

That fangraphs article is really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Sounds like even the professionals can't explain on what is going on either. He touched on some things I was talking about...but did a way better job of explaining it and also added more depth.

 

I've got Burnes if fantasy...and I am going to feast as long as I can. Something just seems off looking at the numbers. Maybe it just can't be explained. These are people playing a game and there are more factors than what can be accounted for.

[Lathund]

So is their a difference between a 2 seamer and a cutter? Both move the opposite direction of a slider so I’m a bit confused.

 

Cutter moves the same direction as a slider. It just harder and with less vertical movement.

[markedman5]

So is their a difference between a 2 seamer and a cutter? Both move the opposite direction of a slider so I’m a bit confused.

 

Cutter moves the same direction as a slider. It just harder and with less vertical movement.

 

Ok....that is what I originally thought but all the stuff I’ve been reading lately got me confused.

 

2 seamer and sinker are similar then? Both move down and away to a lefty when thrown by a righty?

[trwi7]

So is their a difference between a 2 seamer and a cutter? Both move the opposite direction of a slider so I’m a bit confused.

 

Cutter moves away from same handed hitters, two-seamer moves in to same handed hitters.

[stoutdude04]

So is their a difference between a 2 seamer and a cutter? Both move the opposite direction of a slider so I’m a bit confused.

 

Cutter moves the same direction as a slider. It just harder and with less vertical movement.

 

Ok....that is what I originally thought but all the stuff I’ve been reading lately got me confused.

 

2 seamer and sinker are similar then? Both move down and away to a lefty when thrown by a righty?

 

Correct. Though I believe a sinker has more vertical drop than a 2 seamer.

[balsamlaker]

It is great for a team that had a history of not being able to produce pitchers, now having Woodruff and Burnes leading the rotation.

[DHonks]

Burnes is all over the NL leaderboard. Second in k per 9. I think 6th in strikeouts. First in hits allowed for 9 innings and 6th in Whip. Hard to believe he was one of the worst pitchers in the league last year.

 

Worst results... He got a LOT of offseason press (not just local either) about his skill set. Dude has made quite a turnaround.

 

Reminds me of how for about 15 years, Roy Halladay had the record for highest ERA in a season (with qualifying innings). Pitchers with good stuff eventually figure it out