Frustrated with the Crew's Record? Stats to back it...

[JET15]

You probably don't need a graph to show you that you have a right to be frustrated about the Brewers results, but the Hardball Times seems to confirm it. Check out

this graph. We should be over 500 and we are one of the better teams statistically in the NL. So why don't we have the results to show for it?

[RyDogg66]

Where is the graph that measures fundamentals. you know, those things that every 12 year old is taught. Like bunting, hitting the cutoff man, etc. I'd be we are last if there was a graph, and that is why our record is so bad.

[rluzinski]

That graph is just based on the pythagorean theorem. It's saying the Brewers should be 63.5-61.5; 2.5 more games than we have. While lack of fundamentals obviously contributed to that, two points:

 

1. The Brewers mistakes are magnified because we watch every game and because of their pathetic records of the last decade. I ighly doubt we are the worst team fundamentally. Unless you've watched every game in MLB, you wouldn't know anyway.

 

2. While 2.5 more wins would be nice, it still only put them 2 games over .500. We can kid ourselves all we want, but this isn't a playoff caliber team. Not yet atleast.

[clancyphile]

The Brewers have had some wild swings in their offensive performance. They've sometimes had big offensive games, and have not been blown out very often.

[1992casey]

Generally, statisticians attribute differences between actual and Pythagorean records to luck or chance.

 

I've kind of felt that teams could 'make' some luck through good fundamental play, good managerial decisions, etc.

 

But thinking about it further, executing fundamentals and good decision making would cause a team to score more, thus increasing both Pythagorean and actual records. Maybe the stat people are right that the difference is simply chance?

 

By the way, rluzinski offers a nice explanation of what we're discussing in his Pythagorean Theorem thread.

 

(Note that I'm not crying duplicate thread here. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The Pythagorean nature of the graphs wouldn't have necessarily been apparent to everyone.)

[rluzinski]

I wouldn't attribute it ALL to luck. Anyone watching a game can see when misc. skills can scratch out an extra win or two (playing good 1 run ball). For most teams, however that stuff tends to balance itself out.