Trevor Bauer

[sveumrules]

If we continue trolling the bottom of the barrel free agents, how soon before Yelich wants out and demands a trade?

 

Odds are, he was convinced we would remain competitive, and have a genuine shot at the playoffs yearly, and possibly a world series at some point.

 

That just isn't going to happen if we throw together a team like we did this year on a regular basis.

 

I know he seems like a great team guy, but when push comes to shove, and we trot out Smoak/Sogard like players every year, how long before he grows tired of it, and wants a real shot at winning a world series?

 

If Yelich continues to hit 207/324/488 he isn't going to have much trade value unfortunately.

 

If he starts to hit better, we'll probably win more games.

 

This season isn't over, no one knows for sure what kind of team we threw together yet. People were saying the same things last September & what happened? If after 135 games the book wasn't written in 2019, what makes you think it has been written after 35 games this year?

 

They are still about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs & then anything can happen.

[TURBO]

Yeah, well, this team squeaking into the playoffs, and then anything happening with a positive spin would shock me.

[brewers888]

I think you guys should start preparing for another cut to the payroll. When you consider that Attanasio cut payroll last offseason fully anticipating big crowds he sure isn't going to spend next offseason with this much uncertainty. Expect another round of Sogard type acquisitions with Sogard in particular having his option picked up.

 

I would say that yours is the most likely prediction I’ve seen so far. In fact the payroll might be slashed so much that we don’t see Sogard’s option picked up. It’ll be mostly young guys like Urias in the lineup, with whoever else we have as minor league depth.

 

Sogard has been so bad that he will probably agree to a pay cut and come back at 3 million instead of 5. With the way that Counsell has him in the lineup against all righties I would be surprised if he was not brought back.

[brewers888]

If we continue trolling the bottom of the barrel free agents, how soon before Yelich wants out and demands a trade?

 

Odds are, he was convinced we would remain competitive, and have a genuine shot at the playoffs yearly, and possibly a world series at some point.

 

That just isn't going to happen if we throw together a team like we did this year on a regular basis.

 

I know he seems like a great team guy, but when push comes to shove, and we trot out Smoak/Sogard like players every year, how long before he grows tired of it, and wants a real shot at winning a world series?

 

He has been in the playoffs both years he has been here and it was him that came to ownership asking for an extension. As long as he is hitting below .200 he isn't stupid enough to complain about how bad the team is playing.

[brewers888]

If we continue trolling the bottom of the barrel free agents, how soon before Yelich wants out and demands a trade?

 

Odds are, he was convinced we would remain competitive, and have a genuine shot at the playoffs yearly, and possibly a world series at some point.

 

That just isn't going to happen if we throw together a team like we did this year on a regular basis.

 

I know he seems like a great team guy, but when push comes to shove, and we trot out Smoak/Sogard like players every year, how long before he grows tired of it, and wants a real shot at winning a world series?

 

If Yelich continues to hit 207/324/488 he isn't going to have much trade value unfortunately.

 

If he starts to hit better, we'll probably win more games.

 

This season isn't over, no one knows for sure what kind of team we threw together yet. People were saying the same things last September & what happened? If after 135 games the book wasn't written in 2019, what makes you think it has been written after 35 games this year?

 

They are still about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs & then anything can happen.

 

You seem to think this team is good. I think you are way off base if you think this lineup is anything other than terrible. Short season or not the position players on this team are just not good enough.

[sveumrules]

If we continue trolling the bottom of the barrel free agents, how soon before Yelich wants out and demands a trade?

 

Odds are, he was convinced we would remain competitive, and have a genuine shot at the playoffs yearly, and possibly a world series at some point.

 

That just isn't going to happen if we throw together a team like we did this year on a regular basis.

 

I know he seems like a great team guy, but when push comes to shove, and we trot out Smoak/Sogard like players every year, how long before he grows tired of it, and wants a real shot at winning a world series?

 

If Yelich continues to hit 207/324/488 he isn't going to have much trade value unfortunately.

 

If he starts to hit better, we'll probably win more games.

 

This season isn't over, no one knows for sure what kind of team we threw together yet. People were saying the same things last September & what happened? If after 135 games the book wasn't written in 2019, what makes you think it has been written after 35 games this year?

 

They are still about a 50/50 shot to make the playoffs & then anything can happen.

 

You seem to think this team is good. I think you are way off base if you think this lineup is anything other than terrible. Short season or not the position players on this team are just not good enough.

 

No, I think they are about average.

 

There are only four "good" teams in the NL this year (ATL, CHI, LAD, SD) which means the other four playoff teams will be about average.

[tmwiese55]

Weird year so I'm not hating or anything. But I'm sure we'd 2-4 more wins if Yelich was in the ballpark of his normal self. At which point they'd be right on pace as an upper 80 win team. Just like was the reasonable goal to start the year.

[brewerfan82]

[pre]Player PA Actual wRC+ ZiPS Proj. wRC+ Diff.

------ --- ----------- --------------- -----

Hiura 152 93 104 -11

Yelich 142 112 133 -21

Smoak 121 68 90 -22

Garcia 120 76 93 -17

Sogard 97 45 70 -25

Narvaez 87 64 93 -29

Braun 71 53 91 -38

Urias 67 78 91 -13

Holt 36 -2 84 -86

Morrison 28 31 97 -66

 

Player PA Actual wRC+ ZiPS Proj. wRC+ Diff.

------ --- ----------- --------------- -----

Arcia 98 93 76 +17

Gamel 93 96 87 +9

Gyorko 52 147 109 +38

Pina 45 102 82 +20

Mathias 33 83 73 +10

Cain 21 118 95 +23[/pre]

 

That's 921 PA's of under performance vs. 342 PA's of over performance among players with at least 20 PA's. No one could have predicted THIS much under performance. If anything it's a miracle they've won as many games as they have. You have to believe there will be some regression to the mean the rest of the season, it's just unfortunate they only have 25 games left this year instead of the 127 games they'd normally have left at this point.

[3and2Fastball]

I think you guys should start preparing for another cut to the payroll. When you consider that Attanasio cut payroll last offseason fully anticipating big crowds he sure isn't going to spend next offseason with this much uncertainty. Expect another round of Sogard type acquisitions with Sogard in particular having his option picked up.

 

I would say that yours is the most likely prediction I’ve seen so far. In fact the payroll might be slashed so much that we don’t see Sogard’s option picked up. It’ll be mostly young guys like Urias in the lineup, with whoever else we have as minor league depth.

 

Sogard has been so bad that he will probably agree to a pay cut and come back at 3 million instead of 5. With the way that Counsell has him in the lineup against all righties I would be surprised if he was not brought back.

 

That falls into one of those “we must save the team from Counsell” categories. He is a good manager, but tends to get fixated on certain players no matter how badly they do, and benches others no matter how well they do. His biggest blind spot seems to be players who remind him of himself, and Sogard is definitely one of them.

[brewmann04]

I tell you he will be the type of starter this team needs in their rotation.

[HiAndTight]

I tell you he will be the type of starter this team needs in their rotation.

 

I realize this was a couple Woodruff and Burnes starts ago, but you still feel this way?

[brewmann04]

Better than the bottom three at least right now. But i like the Burnes and the good Woody in the rotation

[HiAndTight]

Better than the bottom three at least right now. But i like the Burnes and the good Woody in the rotation

 

Well obviously he's going to be better than a couple of your starters. He's probably been better than all of our starters. But do you still think he's a priority if you have Burnes and Woodruff atop your rotation.

 

Kirby Yates would be better than most of our relievers, but like always, you have to factor in risk and reward. If Bauer stays true to his word, coming off what's been a ridiculously dominant season thus far(.794 Whip), I'd guess he'd get more than 30 million. If Cole's getting 36 per over 9 years...I'd think a team would at least give Bauer 35 for just a one year commitment..if he continues to pitch like this.

[wibadgers23]

Looking at the top free agents this winter, I don’t see us spending any money on the offensive side. Not for anyone that would make a difference anyway. Maybe Justin Turner? So my thinking would be to allocate our funds to build a dominant starting rotation and fill the holes on the infield via trade (Hader).

[wibadgers23]

Looking at the top free agents this winter, I don’t see us spending any money on the offensive side. Not for anyone that would make a difference anyway. Maybe Justin Turner? So my thinking would be to allocate our funds to build a dominant starting rotation and fill the holes on the infield via trade (Hader).

[wibadgers23]

Looking at the top free agents this winter, I don’t see us spending any money on the offensive side. Not for anyone that would make a difference anyway. Maybe Justin Turner? So my thinking would be to allocate our funds to build a dominant starting rotation and fill the holes on the infield via trade (Hader).

[JohnBriggs12]

Looking at the top free agents this winter, I don’t see us spending any money on the offensive side. Not for anyone that would make a difference anyway. Maybe Justin Turner? So my thinking would be to allocate our funds to build a dominant starting rotation and fill the holes on the infield via trade (Hader).

 

We have no idea what the market will be. Brewers aren't the only team that will have lost a lot of money this year. I can't imagine the market will be anywhere near as robust as it was last year. Keeping Braun would cost them an extra $11 million. He's still a very dangerous hitter even if he can only play about a 110 games or so. Vogelbach has been a revelation so far, and is still cheap. I'm thinking they have a nice player in Taylor too. Everyone focuses on Yelich's struggles but relative to his career, Narvaez has been equally as disappointing. Both players returning to close to their normal production would boost the offense too. Bottom line is offense can improve without major investments. Woodruff and Burnes are a great 1-2 but the rest are 4th and 5th type starters at best. I don't think they'll pay Bauer. Can't see it happening. But I'd be looking for a better option as a number 3 starter.

 

Quintana?

[SoCalBrewfan]

I tend to agree with Briggs here. The baseball economy, as with many other sectors, is hugely uncertain, and it's quite possible that many existing long-term contracts based on old assumptions are now seen as liabilities. The market has the potential to be dramatically different this offseason, and I have hope that the Brewers, with relatively few onerous long term deals on the books, will be in a good position to find some good fits. (I think they'd happily shed Garcia's contract, but that's the only really awkward one IMO...I'm still bullish on Yelich and Cain and Lindblom is pretty cheap.)

 

Having two top-of-rotation starters and a deep bullpen, mostly at bargain prices, is a good place to build from, and in most years they've done well finding inexpensive rotation depth. That leaves a few obvious holes to fill (a solid starter to slot in #3) and choices to be made (left side of infield), but there's some reason for optimism.

 

Spending $30M+ for one pitcher seems like the most unlikely response to the offseason that I can imagine, but of course I am surprised nearly every year.

[TURBO]

I would think Vogelbach would only be an option if we keep the DH in the NL.

[Eye Black]

Came across this tonight, looks like Bauer may not be as committed to his one year deal strategy as he once proclaimed.

 

Bauer video on one year deal strategy

 

Regardless, I would put the Brewers odds of signing Bauer at close to zero. Even the financials aside, it seems like the Brewers current FO values starting pitchers differently than fans and media. They seem pretty content with developing their own starters and mixing in some mid-to-back of the rotation types.

 

One last thing I’ll add on Bauer, I think he’s a risky play. It seems apparent he’s using some type of tacky substance to increase the life on his fastball. Every team in baseball has pitchers that do the same, but in Bauer’s case he’s been so vocal in the past against such a practice that it now almost seems like he’s begging MLB to come after him for it. Nothing may ever come of it, but he could also be targeted by either MLB or other players at some point due to his outspoken nature and the perceived hypocrisy of such a tactic. Regarding the accusation and evidence, there has been a lot of speculation about it this year, here is a Defector article that sums up a lot of the general details, Trevor Bauer Should Just Admit It.