Phelps to Phillies

[markedman5]

 

David Stearns: "Probably up until 2:55, I thought we were going to add a bat. ... This is one case where we just couldn't get over the line."

[nate82]

Some scouting reports:

 

Brandon Ramey:

"A lanky 6-foot-3, Ramey has plenty of projection remaining and time to fill out. His delivery is methodical and can give hitters a good look, but there’s deception in a funky low three-quarters release point. The fastball sits in the 89-to-92 mph range, but lacks the long running action you’d expect from his lower slot. Ramey’s feel for spin is a separator, showing a pair of sharp breaking balls that flash big league potential. His 72-to-75 mph curveball is sharp and tunnels well off the fastball, with late drop right before the plate that could make it a 50-grade pitch in time. His low-80s slider also has sharp, tight break that plays well off the heater. Ramey flashed a handful of changeups, but like many young arms, his third speed is behind the fastball/breaking stuff. Ramey has the stuff to stick as a starter with projection across the board and a more developed changeup."

 

Today is Brandon Ramey's birthday.

 

 

Israel Puello:

"Righty with good size (6'3", 200 pounds) and velocity (sit 92-94, touch 95 per reports) had big control issues last season in his first exposure to the DSL. He cut his walk rate by nearly half while adding 10 percent to his strikeout rate. He's got a plus slider to go with his fastball, and if he can work in a fringe-average change with more consistency, he could really shoot up Phillies lists."

 

 

Juan Geraldo:

"Signed in 2017 out of DR, now 18. HTQ delivery, looked like a high-spin fastball that sneaks up on hitters. 91-92 T 94, leans back before he delivers toward the plate. I think I picked up a cutter against a RHH at 93 that could be a weapon. 83-86 SL, backdoored one to a LHH. Command of it improved as time went on. 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K."

 

 

 

A pretty good trade for a journeyman relief pitcher.

[igor67]

With the number of pitchers included it is pretty likely that we end up in a few years with at least one of them who is also a journeyman quality reliever based on those stat lines and scouting reports. There is also a chance they all flameout and probably a similar chance we handily win the trade That could happen any number of ways, but you could certainly imagine one of those guys being a mid rotation type and still having a bullpen arm.

[umphrey]

6’3” x2 and 6’0” has a little more SP potential

[pacopete4]

I think we just filled 3/5‘s of our rotation starting in 2022. Going to be weird having 3 aces but it’s a good problem to have.

[folly412]

I think we just filled 3/5‘s of our rotation starting in 2022. Going to be weird having 3 aces but it’s a good problem to have.

 

[sarcasm]Go Mudcats![/sarcasm]

[LouisEly]

[sarcasm]I would have accepted tatis jr as well.[/sarcasm]

Who, ironically, himself was a low-level lottery ticket (17-year-old with a .742 OPS in Rookie/A- ball) in the 2016 trade for James Shields.

 

(Tatis signed for $700K, so he was a decent prospect when signing, but not one of the top international prospects.)

[SoCalBrewfan]

BF.net summarized:

 

"What has Stearns done lately, the farm is horrible."

 

Stearns trades for upside arms to bolster the minors.

 

"Why is Stearns trading a bullpen arm for prospects!?!"

 

I know someone already gave this a thumbs up, but, well, yep.

 

All three guys are 19 and had big K numbers way down in the low minors. Who missed Adam Lind much? There is a great chance of none of them being anything, but you have to hope some scout saw some value in one or more of the three.

 

For nostalgia's sake tho, I was kind of hoping we got the new Victor Santos from the Phillies.

[brewcrewdue80]

BF.net summarized:

 

"What has Stearns done lately, the farm is horrible."

 

Stearns trades for upside arms to bolster the minors.

 

"Why is Stearns trading a bullpen arm for prospects!?!"

 

I know someone already gave this a thumbs up, but, well, yep.

 

All three guys are 19 and had big K numbers way down in the low minors. Who missed Adam Lind much? There is a great chance of none of them being anything, but you have to hope some scout saw some value in one or more of the three.

 

For nostalgia's sake tho, I was kind of hoping we got the new Victor Santos from the Phillies.

 

Ha, while looking up Philly prospects, prior to the names listed, Victor Santos was a link I think on 1500prospects but it went to the Brewers' Victor Santos BRef page.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I remember being a little happier with the Lind trade, although that was probably a reaction to the fact it had become obvious it was going to be Seattle and I wasn't a big fan of the guy many were clamoring for.

 

That being said, this helps with probably the third biggest hole in the Brewers system (1. Lack of a top 25-type prospect. 2. Corner infield. 3. Lower-level pitching).

 

With the exception of a couple guys who supposedly have upside but who haven't had results yet (Cam Robinson, Alexis Ramirez) most of the Brewers best pitching prospects who haven't hit A-ball are guys who have missed at least half of their minor league career with injuries (Walters, Lemons, Murphy, Beasley, Gonzalez, Zhao). This trio makes next year's A-ball/rookie league staffs far more interesting.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I'm real interested in Stearns' organizational philosophy. Really seems like he loves turning over the BP, and I gotta say, he's real good at it. Pgelps was an easy choice to trade, and I was surprised to get all pitchers back, but I think maybe Srearns sees relievers as just surplus value machines? And trusts the org. to turn out Haders and Devin Williamses, and even Suters and Peraltas. That is really interesting to me.

[Yolk]

I think this is a great trade. Three low level lottery arms while still keeping a strong bullpen.

 

I’m really intrigued by Israel Puello.

[3and2Fastball]

I’m good with the trade. I trust Stearns.

 

I think some of the free agent signings were made with the idea that “if we aren’t in it we can flip these guys at the deadline”. Since they are still in it, there is no reason to be full on sellers, but also Sogard, Healy, Holt, Smoak have very very little trade value, I would guess...

 

Can’t help but wonder which hitter they were trying to trade for.

[Eye Black]

I think Stearns finds the low level guys under valued. If you can scout right, you can get guys before they explode and their value jumps out of reach.

It’s straight out of the Astros playbook. It doesn’t always work out, but when it does you can land 19 year old Yordan Alvarez before he’s played a game stateside in exchange for a relief pitcher (Josh Fields).

[folly412]

Ha, while looking up Philly prospects, prior to the names listed, Victor Santos was a link I think on 1500prospects but it went to the Brewers' Victor Santos BRef page.

 

Did you check out his legendary day-night splits while you were there?

[Eye Black]

[sarcasm]I would have accepted tatis jr as well.[/sarcasm]

Who, ironically, himself was a low-level lottery ticket (17-year-old with a .742 OPS in Rookie/A- ball) in the 2016 trade for James Shields.

 

(Tatis signed for $700K, so he was a decent prospect when signing, but not one of the top international prospects.)

It appears Israel Puello signed for $460K in 2017. Not a top international prospect, but enough of an investment to show that he was well regarded.

[rickh150]

I look at the trade as

a) a trade from our area of strength

b) trading away a guy that has over-performed from norm thus far this season

c) one that fills a need in our minors

d) a big vote of confidence to Rasmussen

[Jenkins5]

I love me some Stearn lottery tickets! Really I had no emotional connection to Phelps. He gave us a good month and we have a handful of rising young bullpen arms. Some act like Phelps was a major piece for us to compete & now we are lost cause. We traded from a strength. If we separate this trade from disappointment about not adding a bat. It is a good trade. You never know if these guys will amount to much but what if they do?

 

SoCal had great post above. It was first thing I thought reading through the negative posts. Fans complain about system and then complain about bringing promising young kids into the system. Don’t feel this trade will impact our MLB club that much & was great quick flip for DS! Phelps was doing well but the rise of Williams & Rasmussen makes me think we will be fine in back end. Peralta had back to back not very good outings but he is very capable & talented. Knebel will bounce back once his arm is 100%

[adambr2]

I mean you couldn't have gotten 1 AAA( or slightly better) bat back for him?? Not even a bench bat??

 

You'd rather play to win right now with this team? I'd rather pile up bodies in the minors and hope to hit on one down the line. Plus, presumably if we picked up a 'bench bat' right now and he went 1/11 to start then we'd all deem the guy to suck and the trade horrible.

 

You play to win the game. NEVER sacrifice the now for the uncertainty of the future. That will always get you no where.

 

I dunno, worked pretty well when we acquired Lewis Brinson for Johnathan Lucroy and in turn used him to acquire Christian Yelich.

 

Your last 2 sentences are really shortsighted. Sometimes no matter what you do, "the now" is not going to be a winner. You can't will yourself a more talented team. GMs understand this. That's why some teams are buyers and some teams are sellers each year.

[SoCalBrewfan]

SoCal had great post above.

 

I was just quoting FVBrewerfan; should have been clearer, sorry! I guess the moral of the story is that I should use the full editor instead of quick reply...

[Lathund]

From the Baseball Prospectus recap of the trade deadline:

 

"Signed for $460,000 in the 2017 class, Puello dominated the DSL in 2019 mainly in part due to an invisible fastball that he threw at a high rate. He averages between close to seven feet of extension on it, making it appear faster than the modest 87-89 mph the radar gun suggests. He is throwing lots of strikes and is still young with physical room for growth."

 

The invisible fastball and the extension sounds a bit like another young pitcher the Brewers acquired in a similar deal...

[tmwiese55]

Seems these guys at least have a chance. Just one pans out and you're way way ahead on this deal.

[RollieTime]

Love this trade. Three young arms added to the system and you hope one pans out. All three strike a ton of guys out and have their own unique characteristic whether it’s funky deliveries or long extension. All of them were pretty dominant last year. Might take 3 years to reap the rewards of this one, but I am interested in seeing how they all do.

 

Too bad we couldn’t flip a couple other guys whether it was Smoak or Arcia even for a few lottery tickets. This is a great year to just get a high draft pick, bring in some minor league talent, and look to go for it in 2021.

[wntrtxn21]

I guess this is one of those "what do you lose" type trades. None of the three reported pitchers were in the Phils top 40 prospects and there's very, very little chance any of them make it to the big leagues. However, there are the once-in-a-blue-moon exceptions like Peralta. Even if one of them defies the odds and does make it, you are looking at 2024.

[sveumrules]

Looks like ZIPS thinks that trading Phelps (plus all the other moves made around baseball) lowered our playoff odds by about 2%...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cranking-out-the-post-trade-deadline-zips/

 

I'd guess the odds of one of the three guys we acquired turning out is at least 3%, so seems like a pretty even deal.