Phelps to Phillies

[SRB]

Can't wait to find out who the prospects are!

 

I don't think this move means that we are "sellers" in the sense of having given up. It's selling high on Phelps who is currently way overperforming his contract. Stearns could have gotten an offer he couldn't refuse even while he still tries to win now.

[folly412]

Hard to tell without names, but on the surface the profile works for me. I'll take potentially good prospects who are a few years out and to avoid the Doug Melvin special of "Major League ready" prospects, since that usually translates into AAAA players who are ready to sit on the ML bench.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If Devin Williams and Drew Rasmussen were considered "low level" non-top prospect types 2-3 years ago, I'd be happy to keep trading for arms like that.

 

Devin Williams was a 1st round draft back and Rasmussen was too before a physical discovered an injury. They are hardly "non-top prospects".

 

Thus the "If." We don't know the return, but I would expect to get back pieces similar in value to how those guys were viewed at their lowest or at least low-end of their minor league value curve. Perhaps a Caden Lemons type(s), who despite being drafted high has never been a "top prospect". Anyway, it's kind of a silly discussion about semantics literally over PTBNLs.

 

Again ... especially this year, "low-level" only means these are players that are currently in the lower levels of the minors, and not on the team's 60-man player pool. This isn't like trading for two Caden Lemons and a 15 year old from Venezuela.

[tmwiese55]

I mean you couldn't have gotten 1 AAA( or slightly better) bat back for him?? Not even a bench bat??

 

You'd rather play to win right now with this team? I'd rather pile up bodies in the minors and hope to hit on one down the line. Plus, presumably if we picked up a 'bench bat' right now and he went 1/11 to start then we'd all deem the guy to suck and the trade horrible.

[Greenleaf1]

If Devin Williams and Drew Rasmussen were considered "low level" non-top prospect types 2-3 years ago, I'd be happy to keep trading for arms like that.

 

Devin Williams was a 1st round draft back and Rasmussen was too before a physical discovered an injury. They are hardly "non-top prospects".

 

Thus the "If." We don't know the return, but I would expect to get back pieces similar in value to how those guys were viewed at their lowest or at least low-end of their minor league value curve. Perhaps a Caden Lemons type(s), who despite being drafted high has never been a "top prospect". Anyway, it's kind of a silly discussion about semantics literally over PTBNLs.

 

You're going to be very disappointed if you're expecting three high draft picks from this deal.

[young guns]

There are people disappointed with this before even knowing the return? What did people expect phelps to bring back?

 

Gavin Lux, the only prospect anyone will trade anything for.

[sarcasm]I would have accepted tatis jr as well.[/sarcasm]

[homer]

I mean you couldn't have gotten 1 AAA( or slightly better) bat back for him?? Not even a bench bat??

 

Kevin Mench!

[homer]

I think Stearns finds the low level guys under valued. If you can scout right, you can get guys before they explode and their value jumps out of reach.

[adambr2]

Return is reportedly 3 PTBNL.

 

Per Matt Gelb:

Phillies will trade multiple low-level pitchers to Milwaukee, all PTBNL. Could be two or three, according to sources.

 

Phelps is a Girardi favorite. He has a $4.5 MM club option for 2021.

So a proven set up man for three or four pitchers who will amount to nothing.

 

I hate this quantity over quality crap. Stearns could've got a hundred low level pitchers in the trade, but 100 x 0 is still zero.

 

Freddy Peralta was just a low level pitcher when we acquired him. Most of these guys never pan out, but if they do, the payoff can be solid.

 

Phelps is a nice reliever. But he was never going to bring back anything special.

[adambr2]

People realize this is David Phelps we're talking about here, right? A 33 year old relief pitcher who, outside of here and there, has been average or worse during his career. Not sure why anyone would expect anything of real value in return.

 

Exactly. Phelps has done a nice job here, but come on, this is not a guy who was ever going to bring back a top 100 type prospect. From the sounds of it we got more than I was counting on.

[Oxy]

 

You're going to be very disappointed if you're expecting three high draft picks from this deal.

 

Where did I say I expected that? Still, I can't say I've been too excited by the production of guys like Andrew Susac and Phil Bickford. So I literally don't care where they were drafted. I will be disappointed if they are no-talent nothing players though, yes. I'll expect one or two of them to at least make appearance(s) on the Brewers top 30 prospects at some point, and i'll be happy if one of them ever makes the 25 man roster.

[trwi7]

I mean you couldn't have gotten 1 AAA( or slightly better) bat back for him?? Not even a bench bat??

 

What does a bench bat do? Maybe make our offense slightly less awful? Not exactly a compelling case you’re making.

[owbc]

This feels like a great 'sell high' move to me. Where's the value in Phelps? He pitched 13 nice innings this year, great, he pitched 588 innings prior to that and was never especially impressive, and he's not getting any younger or cheaper.

 

Let the Phillies be the ones to waste their time making trades to get a #8 seed.

[PeaveyFury]

BF.net summarized:

 

"What has Stearns done lately, the farm is horrible."

 

Stearns trades for upside arms to bolster the minors.

 

"Why is Stearns trading a bullpen arm for prospects!?!"

 

So accurate.

[tmwiese55]

I mean you couldn't have gotten 1 AAA( or slightly better) bat back for him?? Not even a bench bat??

 

Kevin Mench!

 

Well played sir. I'll remember that night forever, I was so mad about that trade. Then the parade and TV cameras on him as he joined the team mid game like he was some star player. I think there was some weird story about how since he changed his shoes he'd hit a few homers, so now he was good.

 

Reminds me too of one that I don't often see brought up as bad trades. Nelson Cruz, we just never gave the guy a shot and he's basically led the league in HRs since we dumped him. But, he did use PEDs so what a POS, so yea I didn't want him, eye roll.

[Jopal78]

A pretty good indication of how Stearns evaluates the chances of this team accomplishing anything this year.

 

Publicly available sources have the Brewers at about a 50/50 chance at making they playoffs & I'd imagine the Brewers internal calculations peg them in the same range.

 

Trading Phelps is not going to drastically change things one way or another, so I'd imagine before the trade Stearns probably thought we had around a 50% chance of making the playoffs & now that we have traded Phelps he probably still thinks we have around a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but now with three more prospects in the fold.

 

 

Well, the back of their bullpen with Williams, Phelps and Hader was pretty strong. A nice club option on Phelps for 2021 meant they could’ve kept that group together for next year. To me it’s indicative of some of Stearns other deals moving some players for different players who may or may not be better than the player being traded away. Take a look at some of those old Power 50s on this site before getting excited about “low level minor leaguers”.

[markedman5]

It’s official.....3 ptbnl

[Oxy]

This feels like a great 'sell high' move to me. Where's the value in Phelps? He pitched 13 nice innings this year, great, he pitched 588 innings prior to that and was never especially impressive, and he's not getting any younger or cheaper.

 

Let the Phillies be the ones to waste their time making trades to get a #8 seed.

 

Yep. Exactly how I feel. Phelps HAS BEEN slightly better the the guys we've got to replace him, but he certainly isn't anything special. Get younger and get whatever you can for him at his peak value right now and sign another guy like him in the offseason then trade that guy high to get younger....etc etc. etc.

[markedman5]

Let’s remember we signed Phelps to a free agent deal only a few months ago.

 

It’s not like comparable veteran bullpen guys can’t be had in the off season for similar money

[MrTPlush]

I really don’t care about this move either way. I think we suck so I’m not losing sleep over us being worse. He had an option for next year, but I can’t see next years team being all that intriguing either.

 

As for the prospects? Guess we will see. Adds upside to the farm in the form of three guys...not bad for a relief pitcher. Freddy Peralta was once a minor addition to a trade back when he was being average in the rookie league.

[Jaylyn]

If Stearns would have gotten a Philly Cheese Steak in return I would have called it a good value move. 3 ptbnl? Worth a shot, to see who can deliver. No complaints!

[Jopal78]

This feels like a great 'sell high' move to me. Where's the value in Phelps? He pitched 13 nice innings this year, great, he pitched 588 innings prior to that and was never especially impressive, and he's not getting any younger or cheaper.

 

Let the Phillies be the ones to waste their time making trades to get a #8 seed.

 

Yep. Exactly how I feel. Phelps HAS BEEN slightly better the the guys we've got to replace him, but he certainly isn't anything special. Get younger and get whatever you can for him at his peak value right now and sign another guy like him in the offseason then trade that guy high to get younger....etc etc. etc.

 

Of course signing veterans and dealing them for “low level minor leaguers” at the deadline doesn’t sound like the team will be winning much under your scenario.

 

Ultimately, I don’t really care about Phelps either way, I’m more disappointed the Brewers didn’t add and are content to “see what happens”/ punt on this year. Wasting a prime season from Yelich, and having the other young players march a year closer to free agency while likely playing out the string.

[brewcrewdue80]

So it's 3 Ptbnl or 2 depending on who they select. This gives me the idea that 1 of the 2 are potentially dealing with injury/recovering from one who is a higher regarded prospect, or 3 that presents quantity over quality.

Looking at MLB.com top 30 Kyle Young is returning from TJ done in May of 2019. Just as an example. Amazing a guy 6'10" in this day would only top out around 91(before TJ) Yet at same time presents a 1.4BB/9 thus far when taking the mound.

Ethan Lindow has the Brewers preferential Spin Rate termed in his summary. These two would be #25/29.

 

Looking at prospect1500

Josh Gessner International signing from Aus age 19. 6 G, 3 GS, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 17 K, 7 BB, 12.1 K/9, 2.43 K/BB

Kevin Gowdy is another former injured arm who return in 2019. 2nd round pick

https://lastwordonsports.com/2016/05/07/kevin-gowdy-2016-mlb-draft-profile/

Seems had very high upside with command as a plus, only his return in 2019 was the complete opposite nearly 6bb/9

 

That right there gives the idea Gowdy is the get, because the upside is there (written as possible ace before draft) while fallback is of course future stud RP. whom you can trade after any kind of success.

[Thurston Fluff]

There are people disappointed with this before even knowing the return? What did people expect phelps to bring back?

 

It is also important to remember that, at least in this case, "low-level" does not necessarily mean no talent or no-name players. The Phillies have 7 pitchers on their MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospect list that are not part of their 60-man player pool.

 

I was going to say something similar to this. This season there are only 60 players on each team that can be named. Which means the traditional PTBNL definition does not apply.

[pacopete4]

Wheeling dealing Stearns at it again. This thread will be fun to look back at in the future I bet. Not that the main players in some of this madness ever own up to their (over)reactions.