2021 Brewers

[Outlander]

I would expect a reasonably sized shakeup just based on the number of short term deals to enter the year. Doesn't really matter that it is a small sample size season. Don't expect any of their big pieces like Yelich/Hader/Hiura/Woodruff to be dealt. Not sure if they will continue on the short term deals with options or actually give a decent contract to a free agent.

[sveumrules]

I do find it interesting that people are making declarations about Lindblom, Garcia, etc. being 'failed free agent signings,' while then turning around and using the 'small sample size' argument for those that HAVE had success....

To your point about Lindblom and small sample sizes for pitchers, I think people forget how much Brandon Woodruff appeared to struggle to begin last year. Much of his trouble was inflated by a high-BAbip which is exactly the case for Lindblom.

 

This is almost uncanny, but below are Brandon Woodruff's first 5 starts from last year as compared to Josh Lindblom's first 25 IP this year.

 

Brandon Woodruff (2019 first 5 starts):

 

[pre]IP H ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

26.1 30 17 9 32 4 2 5.81 0.283 0.350 0.453 0.803 0.371[/pre]

 

Josh Lindblom (2020 first 6 starts):

 

[pre]IP H ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

25.2 26 18 12 36 5 2 6.31 0.260 0.351 0.450 0.801 0.356[/pre]

 

 

Look, I certainly don't think Josh Lindblom is Brandon Woodruff by any means, but I also don't think he's a > 6.00 ERA guy either. I think over a full 162 game season he could probably be a competent #5 starter. I don't think he's ever going to be great, but I think his high BAbip is somewhat skewing his results so far.

 

Woodruff 2019 at 26.1 IP

ERA 5.81 | FIP 4.00 | xFIP 4.01

 

Lindblom 2020 at 25.2 IP

ERA 6.31 | FIP 4.52 | xFIP 3.88

 

ERA has almost zero predictive value in a sample as small as 25 innings, the predictive value of xFIP is much better (though still not infallible of course) in a tiny sample.

 

Much like Woodruff (& the team as a whole) positively regressed in the direction of their xFIP last year after their horrible start by ERA, I would expect Lindblom to do the same & settle in as a perfectly cromulent back of the rotation starter.

 

Or maybe not & Mark Attanasio wasted nine million dollars.

 

Stay tuned.