2021 Brewers

[balsamlaker]

If the Brewers finish the second half of the 2020 season like the first half (26-28 wins total, an average to slightly above average pitching staff, and a bottom five offense), what changes would you expect to the roster, coaching staff, etc.?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I would not expect any changes to be made based on the win total of a 60 game season played during a pandemic.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would not expect any changes to be made based on the win total of a 60 game season played during a pandemic.

 

Well, considering the number of guys that are here on short-term or 1-year deals, I would expect a fairly significant roster turnover again for 2021.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

A new hitting coach and no Braun (retired), Gyorko, Sogard, Phelps or Gamel on the roster.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

A new hitting coach and no Braun (retired), Gyorko, Sogard, Phelps or Gamel on the roster.

 

Phelps has a 2021 club option. He'll be back. Unless he's dealt before Tuesday.

[pacopete4]

Doubtful that Gamel will be going anywhere either. Braun could also be back if DH is a thing to stay.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Phelps is due 4.5 million on a club option. He gone!

[Eye Black]

I don’t think the Brewers will admit to being either buyers or sellers over the next four days, but I wouldn’t be opposed to them taking a chance on acquiring some mid-20s players that haven’t broken through with others clubs based on being blocked or whatever other reason. Every once in awhile those guys click and can turn into future impact pieces (a good example from this year is Jake Cronenworth whom the Padres acquired from the Rays).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Phelps is due 4.5 million on a club option. He gone!

 

Have you looked at what solid relievers make nowadays? $4.5 million isn't detrimental.

[pacopete4]

Phelps is due 4.5 million on a club option. He gone!

 

Have you looked at what solid relievers make nowadays? $4.5 million isn't detrimental.

 

...and Phelps is good.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Perhaps overly optimistic but I still think this team will go an a 7 game winning streak or something, creep into the expanded playoff and at least make it fun. There are a lot of whiffs this off-season but there is still a ton of talent on this team. They're better than this. It's just tough because in a regular season, while this start would still have a lot of people up in arms, it would be completely reasonable to still think they have a shot. Even this last two years this team has gone extended periods looking mediocre or just downright bad.

 

A lot of the flyer guys suck though. None have really worked out to this point.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Phelps is due 4.5 million on a club option. He gone!

 

Have you looked at what solid relievers make nowadays? $4.5 million isn't detrimental.

 

...and Phelps is good.

 

Exactly. This team can't be in the business of dumping affordable assets for nothing.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

I don't see them paying 4.5 for a 7th inning based on Williams progression (he'll get the 8th) I forsee Rasmussen, Bickford, Wahl, Black or one of their several Rule 5 eligible players filling the role (I know, that is wishful thinking). I have enjoyed Williams to Phelps to Hader. I see next year a money saving season.

 

Braun- 15 million

Sogard- 4 million

Phelps- 4.5 million

Gamel- 2.5 million?

Gyorko- 4 million?

 

I could be wrong on Gamel and Phelps.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t know, but it ain’t going to be pretty the way this has gone so far. A lot of the baggage this year is gone next year, but not all. Lindblom and Avisail Garcia are both here in 2021. That’s about $15.5mil of sunk costs assuming you don’t allow Lindblom to get to 100+ innings and you buy out Garcia for 2022 (if they both perform badly again). I’m sure there will be some major arbitration increases next year as that makes up a huge majority of the players having any kind of success this year. After all that is taken into consideration I’m not even sure we have more available money vs. last off-season. If we do it probably isn’t by much.

 

They won’t panic and replace Hiura or replace Narvaez. Both those guys will 100% have their jobs next year. However, there will be black holes at 1st base, potentially SS, 3rd base, and potentially RF. RF you are stuck with Garcia so one best hope he has a good year and SS we are either stuck with Arcia or likely Urias. 1st and 3rd base are almost assured to be new faces. Maybe Smoak returns, but at the very least his partner will be different I am sure.

 

If there is a DH they certainly could put Hiura there to shake up the infield even more. Much like last year Stearn’s almost has an empty template for the infield. Hopefully he does better this time around. However, money will probably be tight even before considering the disaster financial year they are currently weathering. I’d expect a another cheapo roster hoping our bullpen and rotation continue to take big steps forward to power any type of success.

[SomewhereInTime]

I don't see them paying 4.5 for a 7th inning based on Williams progression (he'll get the 8th) I forsee Rasmussen, Bickford, Wahl, Black or one of their several Rule 5 eligible players filling the role (I know, that is wishful thinking). I have enjoyed Williams to Phelps to Hader. I see next year a money saving season.

 

Braun- 15 million

Sogard- 4 million

Phelps- 4.5 million

Gamel- 2.5 million?

Gyorko- 4 million?

 

I could be wrong on Gamel and Phelps.

 

Even if you do think it will be a money saver season and the Brewers won't be competitive, Phelps would be an excellent trade deadline piece.

[MrTPlush]

0% chance they don’t pick up that option on Phelps if he continues to dominate at an elite level. If anything they would pick it up and trade him. At his production $4.5mil is a complete bargain and I bet they would have zero problems paying that to him. Didn’t Stearns once pay $5mil to Neftali Feliz coming off a terrible year and hadn’t been elite in three years?

[JohnBriggs12]

0% chance they don’t pick up that option on Phelps if he continues to dominate at an elite level. If anything they would pick it up and trade him. At his production $4.5mil is a complete bargain and I bet they would have zero problems paying that to him. Didn’t Stearns once pay $5mil to Neftali Feliz coming off a terrible year and hadn’t been elite in three years?

 

Phelps is not elite. Never has been. At 33 he's not turning into an elite reliever. Many questions regarding revenue in 2021. A lot of fans are turned off by all sports right now. I believe the market for guys similar to Phelps will be depressed.

[Lathund]

It's hard to make a plan because we don't know what the 2021 pandemic situation will be like, if there's a vaccine available or not (and thus if there will be fans in attendance) will have a big impact on what teams do. But I will for the purposes of this assume in a normal (or close to normal) season.

 

First I'd say the pitching side of things is looking pretty good. Anderson is the only FA, everyone else is either controllable through arbitration or team options. Hader and Woodruff are the only guys who'd see any kind of major arbitration pay increase. I'd stick with the young pitching, find the needed depth among Brown/Supak/File/BettingerBickford etc and only go for some smaller signings.

 

Position player side has some spots to fill. I expect the catchers, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Hiura and Garcia (and probably Arcia) to still be there. If they finish strong, Smoaks or Gyrkos options might be picked up, but seems unlikely right now. So we're most likely looking for a couple of corner infield bats, an OF bat, and depending on the Urias/Arcia situation (and DH status) maybe a middle infielder too. Younger guys like Mathias, Taylor, Ray, Nottingham can provide depth. Beyond them not much in terms of hitters in the upper minors. Perhaps Cooper hummel and his 147 wRC+ in AA has an outside chance, but he's not on the 60-man so doesn't seem they are all that high on him.

 

Basically, clear need is to get position players who can hit. Going about it the Free Agency route would mean either a similar route to this year and hope for more hits than misses or putting all the offseason money eggs in one basket on a DJ LeMahieu or Castellanos (if he opts out) or something. As far as trading goes, one way would be to try to find blocked players or post-hype prospects, try to find an Aguilar (Waiver claim I know, but the kind of player you can acquire without giving up a real prospect) or a Gio Urshela/Mike Tauchmann. Kinda what they did with Mathias, though have yet to see how he shakes out. This means trading some prospects, but fairly minor ones. I don't see giving up any of the few good prospects in the system as a good idea at this point; you can do that if the system is strong, but not now.

 

And the other way to trade for talent is to trade from the major league roster. Of the short-term contracts on the team, Phelps (with his reasonable option for next year) is probably the only one who could get us anything decent, and even that won't really be a sure thing. A midseason trade of Anderson could be a thing if a playoff team needs rotation depth, but again don't expect much. And I don't want to trade any of the young starting pitching. So for me that leaves Hader. I think it's hard to find a deal there because he has 3+ years of team control and is the reigning 2x Reliever of the Year; it should indeed take a "bananas" offer. But at the same time, he's only a reliever with a wonky delivery and a relatively heavy workload; teams will be cautious about giving up a lot for him. Kind of has to be a perfect storm like the Cubs/Chapman situation for a deal to happen. Like the Dodgers being willing to change their philosophy on not trading top prospects due to wanting to capitalize on this year, or the Padres gearing up for a serious challenge over the next 3 years. But if it's doable, I think a Hader trade is the best chance of solving the major batting issues this team has.

 

Of course the Hader debate, and how to value elite relievers, has gone back and forth here for ages. And of course losing him would be a significant blow to the relief corps. I just feel like the gain on the position player side could be much greater.

[PeaveyFury]

0% chance they don’t pick up that option on Phelps if he continues to dominate at an elite level. If anything they would pick it up and trade him. At his production $4.5mil is a complete bargain and I bet they would have zero problems paying that to him. Didn’t Stearns once pay $5mil to Neftali Feliz coming off a terrible year and hadn’t been elite in three years?

 

Phelps is not elite. Never has been. At 33 he's not turning into an elite reliever. Many questions regarding revenue in 2021. A lot of fans are turned off by all sports right now. I believe the market for guys similar to Phelps will be depressed.

 

I do find it interesting that people are making declarations about Lindblom, Garcia, etc. being 'failed free agent signings,' while then turning around and using the 'small sample size' argument for those that HAVE had success....

[monty57]

I think it's fair to assume that players will hit closer to their career average, which should help the offense immensely. For whatever reason, no one is hitting this season. If Garcia, Yelich, Hiura, etc just get back to their expected results, our offense will be much better.

 

For next year, I expect most of the one-year-plus-option guys to be gone, so our big acquisition should be 1B/3B. Unfortunately, while the 2021 FA class if full of shortstops, there aren't many FA options at the corner IF, so it will be interesting to see how Stearns addresses this need, especially since it looks like we'll be around $100M in salary before adding a 1B or 3B.

 

Note that with the SS class that's out there, Arcia will be be about worthless as a trade chip. Maybe we just sign Baez or Lindor, make Urias our 2B and move Hiura to 1B/DH :-)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it's fair to assume that players will hit closer to their career average, which should help the offense immensely. For whatever reason, no one is hitting this season. If Garcia, Yelich, Hiura, etc just get back to their expected results, our offense will be much better.

 

For next year, I expect most of the one-year-plus-option guys to be gone, so our big acquisition should be 1B/3B. Unfortunately, while the 2021 FA class if full of shortstops, there aren't many FA options at the corner IF, so it will be interesting to see how Stearns addresses this need, especially since it looks like we'll be around $100M in salary before adding a 1B or 3B.

 

Note that with the SS class that's out there, Arcia will be be about worthless as a trade chip. Maybe we just sign Baez or Lindor, make Urias our 2B and move Hiura to 1B/DH :-)

 

Every SS on the free agent market can also handle 3B. In fact, given Stearns's track record for seeking versatility, I would be very surprised if he acquired a 3B via free agency that also couldn't handle the middle infield.

[Eye Black]

I do find it interesting that people are making declarations about Lindblom, Garcia, etc. being 'failed free agent signings,' while then turning around and using the 'small sample size' argument for those that HAVE had success....

To your point about Lindblom and small sample sizes for pitchers, I think people forget how much Brandon Woodruff appeared to struggle to begin last year. Much of his trouble was inflated by a high-BAbip which is exactly the case for Lindblom.

 

This is almost uncanny, but below are Brandon Woodruff's first 5 starts from last year as compared to Josh Lindblom's first 25 IP this year.

 

Brandon Woodruff (2019 first 5 starts):

 

[pre]IP H ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

26.1 30 17 9 32 4 2 5.81 0.283 0.350 0.453 0.803 0.371[/pre]

 

Josh Lindblom (2020 first 6 starts):

 

[pre]IP H ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

25.2 26 18 12 36 5 2 6.31 0.260 0.351 0.450 0.801 0.356[/pre]

 

 

Look, I certainly don't think Josh Lindblom is Brandon Woodruff by any means, but I also don't think he's a > 6.00 ERA guy either. I think over a full 162 game season he could probably be a competent #5 starter. I don't think he's ever going to be great, but I think his high BAbip is somewhat skewing his results so far.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Important to remember that Josh Lindblom is a also being paid a salary commensurate with that of a #4-5 starter/veteran long reliever. He was never being seen by the Brewers as a rotation savior, and we as fans need to remember that, and temper expectations accordingly.

[monty57]

I think it's fair to assume that players will hit closer to their career average, which should help the offense immensely. For whatever reason, no one is hitting this season. If Garcia, Yelich, Hiura, etc just get back to their expected results, our offense will be much better.

 

For next year, I expect most of the one-year-plus-option guys to be gone, so our big acquisition should be 1B/3B. Unfortunately, while the 2021 FA class if full of shortstops, there aren't many FA options at the corner IF, so it will be interesting to see how Stearns addresses this need, especially since it looks like we'll be around $100M in salary before adding a 1B or 3B.

 

Note that with the SS class that's out there, Arcia will be be about worthless as a trade chip. Maybe we just sign Baez or Lindor, make Urias our 2B and move Hiura to 1B/DH :-)

 

Every SS on the free agent market can also handle 3B. In fact, given Stearns's track record for seeking versatility, I would be very surprised if he acquired a 3B via free agency that also couldn't handle the middle infield.

 

That's a possibility, but would they sign without some kind of guarantee that they were playing SS?

 

Just to throw it out there, the class consists of (courtesy of MLBtraderumors.com) Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Didi Gregorius, and Marcus Semian at the top, with Chris Taylor, Brandon Crawford, Miguel Rojas, Greg Garcia, Donovan Solano, and Danny Santana also on the market.

 

Given Attanasio's history, I could see him raising payroll for a big name, but if any of the top guys are signed, I'd guess that they'd be our SS, Urias would be 3B or 2B (if Hiura moved to 1B/DH) and Arcia would be utility.

 

Edit: Cots says Baez is in his final year of arbitration in 2021. Not sure who to believe.

[monty57]

Important to remember that Josh Lindblom is a also being paid a salary commensurate with that of a #4-5 starter/veteran long reliever. He was never being seen by the Brewers as a rotation savior, and we as fans need to remember that, and temper expectations accordingly.

 

Good point. What we need is for Burnes and Peralta to continue to improve. They're the guys with potential to be near the top of the rotation. If that happens, we could have a very good rotation for the next few years, and guys like Lindblom and Lauer would be competing for the #5 spot.

 

It'd be pretty cool to have a set rotation with depth and not have to spend a bunch of FA money on pitching. That might even make a good offensive FA upgrade possible.