Which team won?

[nsimps]

Three teams from an actual season - which one finished first, second and third and why do you think they did?

 

a) Team OPS - .780

Team ERA - 3.62

Team WHIP - 1.34

 

b) Team OPS - .801

Team ERA - 3.99

Team WHIP - 1.44

 

c) Team OPS - .778

Team ERA - 4.09

Team WHIP - 1.42

[Jacob008]

will you break OPS into OBP & SLG?

[brettac1]

Since I believe nsimps isn't a "stat head", I'm pretty sure he's trying to goad one of "us" into saying it was the team with the highest OPS that won. Then he's going to "get us" by revealing that the teams finished in inverse order of their OPS'. Just a guess, but I think I'm right.

[nsimps]

Quote:

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will you break OPS into OBP & SLG?

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Sure

 

a) OBP - .357

SLG - .423

 

b) OBP - .381

SLG - .421

 

c) OBP - .377

SLG - .401

 

Quote:

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I'm pretty sure he's trying to goad one of "us" into saying it was the team with the highest OPS that won.

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Or I'm trying to see what people can infer using the core team stats.

[1992casey]

I'm betting on "c" because at first glance, it looks like the worst set of stats. But really, I think "a", "b", and "c" look pretty close.

 

I'd rather see OPS against than ERA. It'd make the question easier. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[nsimps]

Quote:

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I'd rather see OPS against than ERA. It'd make the question easier

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Baseball-Almanac doesn't have that stat. I was going to put runs and runs against on there but I thought it would be too easy.

 

NOTE: This was a 154 game season.

[Jacob008]

assuming some rough numbers, 5600 ABs, 500 BBs, and using the Runs Created Formula, as well as the simple pythagorean WPCT formula,

here's what I get:

 

team a) 846 runs scored, 586 runs allowed, 109 wins

team b) 898 runs scored, 646 runs allowed, 107 wins

team c) 847 runs scored, 663 runs allowed, 100 wins

[Jacob008]

154 game season?

 

Ok:

 

a) 104 wins

b) 101 wins

c) 96 wins

[Jacob008]

Ok, I started over assuming a 154 game season and roughly 5300 ABs and 500 BBs. I underestimated average number of walks a team gets. These two numbers are pretty important to the equation. So I got different results this second time.

 

Also runs allowed is going to be very rough due to the low correlation of ERA to RA.

 

Here's what I come up with second time through.

 

team a) 761 RS, 586 RA, 97 wins

team b) 808 RS, 646 RA, 94 wins

team c) 762 RS, 663 RA, 92 wins

 

and I'll predict the wins are exaggerated because RA is underrepresented as i mentioned above. On a hunch only I'll say RA are underrepresented by 10% and actual wins 90,87,80.

 

Either way, I think they finished a,b,c in the standings.

[nsimps]

Very close jacob. The actual results:

 

Stat: Actual (Your guess)

Team A: 1923 Yankees

Wins: 98 (97)

Losses: 54

Runs: 824 (761)

Runs Allowed: 622 (586)

 

Team B: 1923 Indians

Wins: 82 (94)

Losses: 71

Runs: 886 (808)

Runs Allowed: 745 (646)

 

Team C: 1923 Tigers

Wins: 83 (92)

Loss: 71

Runs:833 (762)

Runs Allowed: 741 (663)

[Jacob008]

Pythagorean Win-Loss: RS^1.83/(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)

 

Team, Actual Wins, Pythagorean Wins

 

Yankees, 98, 96

Indians, 82, 89

Tigers, 83, 85

 

It does a good job predicting the wins for the Yankess and the Tigers, but it misses on the Indians. So I went looking for why...

 

Clearly they scored a lot of runs, they either score runs in large chunks, or there is something runs allowed isn't showing us that cost the Indians a few games.

 

I think it's the chunk theory...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/1923_sched.shtml

 

Their WPCT (.617, 29-18) in blowouts is 8% higher than their WPCT overall (.536, 82-71) which is 8% higher than their WPCT in one run games (.457, 21-25).

 

They also, by my count, were 11-4, .733 in games decided by 9 or more runs, including wins of 27-3 and 22-2. If you could shuffle around those runs in those huge wins, it'd make up the 7 games the pytagorean WL overshot by.

[Getpaddled]

Pythagorean Win-Loss: RS^1.83/(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)

 

where did you get these #'s and letter from, and what do they stand for http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif