2020-08-24: Reds (Bauer) at Brewers (Anderson) [Brewers win, 4-2 -- Offense tallies 7 hits and 4 runs off Bauer]

[Eye Black]

 

 

Brett Anderson: Batter (Reds) vs Pitching Stats

 

Trevor Bauer: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

[Eye Black]

Trevor Bauer has allowed just 2 earned runs over 26.1 innings pitched this year. He has gone 6+ IP in all four outings, and thrown over 100 pitches in 3 of the 4 (other was 97 pitches).

[Oxy]

Bauer is due to get rocked. Brewers are due to rock somebody? May the regression/progression Gods smile upon this matchup...

[pacopete4]

Our last 13 games:

12 runs - 2 times

7 runs - 2 times

5 runs - 3 times

4 runs - 4 times

3 runs - 2 times

 

5.76 runs a game over the last 13 games.

 

Over the last 7 games it bumps to over 6 runs a game.

In reverse order: 5,12,7,7,3,4,5

 

At some point we need to realize that while the offense has been a disappointment, so has the pitching. Can’t be expected to have an offensive outpouring every night to win ball games.

[owbc]

Ouch, not a fun pitching matchup for a slumping team. Maybe we can get to their bullpen?

[sveumrules]

No doubt the pitching has underperformed some. Current ranks are...

 

ERA-: 101 (18th) | FIP-: 92 (7th) | xFIP-: 86 (3rd)

 

Runs allowed per game: 5.00 (19th)

Projected rest of season RA/G: 4.63 (8th)

 

Last year after 26 games the Brewers ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- splits were at 120/118/105, during which time they allowed 5.27 runs per game. Team record was 13-13.

 

By the 60 game mark the ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- positively regressed beyond the more predictive 105 xFIP- mark to a dead even 100/100/100 & the runs allowed per game to 4.77. Team record was 34-26.

 

Even with the shortened season there is still enough time for positive regression to (maybe? hopefully? pretty please with sugar on top?) take effect for both the pitching & hitting.

[markedman5]

[Eye Black]

Well that coincides with the same period of time that his spin rates first spiked significantly and consistently in games (and have remained high since), except for one time back in 2018 when he spiked his spin rates for one inning of an April outing to apparently “make a point”. He has previously been on the record as having experimented at Driveline with substances to improve spin rate, and acknowledged that increasing spin rate can’t be done without the use of foreign substances from research that’s been done (FiveThirtyEight article link). It’s pretty clear Bauer is using substances to increase his spin rate, but so are many other pitchers (including I’m sure several Brewers’ pitchers). The spin rate improvements alone likely don’t account for all of the success Bauer is having lately, but it does appear to be a contributing factor.

 

For those interested, Ben Lindbergh wrote a good piece on this topic before the season began: MLB Is Trying to Get a Grip on Foreign Substances. What Does That Mean for Pitchers?

[Zad Fnark]

Maybe sit Hiura for this one.

[Eye Black]

From Joel Luckhaupt:

 

The Brewers are hitting .192/.296/.379 since August 18th, and they are the hot offense coming into this series with the Reds, who are hitting .156/.272/.301 over the same span.

[Eye Black]

Maybe sit Hiura for this one.

I love Keston, but Bauer is definitely a bad matchup for him. Coming into tonight he has struck out in all three of his previous at bats against Bauer.

[mtsportsfan]

Looking at the match up with Bauer , I was thinking that we would probably get no hit tonight , but the way baseball goes I think that we get to Bauer early and win a slugfest.

[TURBO]

As many times as we've been no hit past the 3rd or 4th inning this year, this feels like the perfect storm to actually be no-hit.

 

Of course, that means we put up double digits, and lose by a run anyway...

[homer]

Sheesh that Votto contract extension was horrible.

[Eye Black]

The double play turn by Urias was real nice. There was no room for error there.

 

That’s one that isn’t going to be a double play if Keston’s at 2B tonight.

[pacopete4]

Well look who has a hit in the 1st inning!

[folly412]

I don't know how to watch a game with a first inning hit. I usually cruise into the 5th waiting for the first hit.

[brewerfan82]

I think someone posted something recently showing Hiura had the highest swing and miss rate on pitches in the strikezone in the majors. Add 3 more to that total. I like the guy, but it's amazing how often he doesn't make contact on hittable pitches.

[homer]

A first inning run!!!!

[Eye Black]

RUN!!!!!!

 

[pacopete4]

And now a run?!?

[homer]

On a fastball no less.

[yourout]

Wow the rarest of the rare.

[adambr2]

We should probably keep that baseball.

[PinaMadness]

Am I living in an alternate universe?