Grisham

[Eye Black]

In the week since Grisham’s 4 hit, 3 home run game he has gone 2-for-22 (both singles) with 9 strikeouts and 1 walk. His season OPS is now at .799. Luis Urias has a .748 OPS.

 

Grisham has had some great moments this season and hit some impressive home runs, but he has also struggled offensively for stretches as well.

[Lathund]

He went 0-6 last night, so clearly Brewers won the trade. As per the OP, that's how it works right? Let's hope we don't go back to losing it tonight.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He went 0-6 last night, so clearly Brewers won the trade. As per the OP, that's how it works right? Let's hope we don't go back to losing it tonight.

 

Oh, no doubt. Because you can always base whether you win or lose a trade based off an extremely small sample size played during a miniaturized season during a pandemic!

 

I liked Grisham last year as well, and was surprised when we dealt him. But I'm excited by Urias's future, and I don't think we've seen the last of Lauer as a useful piece of the puzzle, either. I think this is one of those overly emotional threads that was started in a fit of frustration. I think we're all guilty of that from time to time.

[jjfanec]

Was surprised to see that Grisham has struck out 41 times this year. He would fit right in on this roster.

 

Also beware of the affect of one good or terrible game on OPS in short season. If Grisham hits just 1 home run and the other 2 were singles in his 3 home run game is OPS would be .733. Obviously his numbers would look much better without his 0-6 game too. Just hard to get a read based off numbers so far.

 

If Grisham turns out to be a guy with an OPS around .750-.800 does that really hurt that much on a normal year?

[tmwiese55]

Right, have to remember this is like the equivalent of stats by late April/early May in a normal season. Just think how much that changes each year. Surprisingly, Eric Thames wasn't Barry Bonds after his first April.

[rickh150]

If Urias can be an upgrade at SS potentially and steadily hit in the #1 or #2, filling OF spots are easier than at SS. I realize that's a big IF, but I like what I've seen from him, especially hitting line drives the other way.

[JosephC]

Panic scale -

1 = no concern whatsoever

5 = hit the panic button, we have a major problem

 

Urias against MLB right-handed pitching-

2018 = 40 plate appearances, .114/.200/.200/.400

2019 = 189 plate appearances, .177/.312/.259/.572

2020 = 78 plate appearances, .214/.295/.243/.538

Total = 307 plate appearances, .179/.293/.247/.540

 

Over 300 plate appearances now and the early returns are very poor.

 

Still only 23 years old.

 

Time to move the slider on the panic scale from 1 to 2?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Panic scale -

1 = no concern whatsoever

5 = hit the panic button, we have a major problem

 

Urias against MLB right-handed pitching-

2018 = 40 plate appearances, .114/.200/.200/.400

2019 = 189 plate appearances, .177/.312/.259/.572

2020 = 78 plate appearances, .214/.295/.243/.538

Total = 307 plate appearances, .179/.293/.247/.540

 

Over 300 plate appearances now and the early returns are very poor.

 

Still only 23 years old.

 

Time to move the slider on the panic scale from 1 to 2?

 

I'd be interested in what the very young, developing player's minor league numbers were against right-handed pitching before I even start to panic.

[Jopal78]

Panic scale -

1 = no concern whatsoever

5 = hit the panic button, we have a major problem

 

Urias against MLB right-handed pitching-

2018 = 40 plate appearances, .114/.200/.200/.400

2019 = 189 plate appearances, .177/.312/.259/.572

2020 = 78 plate appearances, .214/.295/.243/.538

Total = 307 plate appearances, .179/.293/.247/.540

 

Over 300 plate appearances now and the early returns are very poor.

 

Still only 23 years old.

 

Time to move the slider on the panic scale from 1 to 2?

 

I wouldn't say the panic meter necessarily started on 1. Outside of the PCL he had always been a middling hitter.

[Boomer5]

Well this trade is, uh, wow. 3.1 bwar to -0.5 bawr

[Boomer5]

Panic scale -

1 = no concern whatsoever

5 = hit the panic button, we have a major problem

 

Urias against MLB right-handed pitching-

2018 = 40 plate appearances, .114/.200/.200/.400

2019 = 189 plate appearances, .177/.312/.259/.572

2020 = 78 plate appearances, .214/.295/.243/.538

Total = 307 plate appearances, .179/.293/.247/.540

 

Over 300 plate appearances now and the early returns are very poor.

 

Still only 23 years old.

 

Time to move the slider on the panic scale from 1 to 2?

 

410 plate appearances in the MLB. Clearly the guy can’t hit. I don’t know about panic because it wasn’t like he was some hitting machine to begin with.

[sveumrules]

Panic scale -

1 = no concern whatsoever

5 = hit the panic button, we have a major problem

 

Urias against MLB right-handed pitching-

2018 = 40 plate appearances, .114/.200/.200/.400

2019 = 189 plate appearances, .177/.312/.259/.572

2020 = 78 plate appearances, .214/.295/.243/.538

Total = 307 plate appearances, .179/.293/.247/.540

 

Over 300 plate appearances now and the early returns are very poor.

 

Still only 23 years old.

 

Time to move the slider on the panic scale from 1 to 2?

 

I wouldn't say the panic meter necessarily started on 1. Outside of the PCL he had always been a middling hitter.

 

In A+ at age 19, Urias hit 330/397/440 (130 wRC+) over 531 PAs with more walks than strikeouts (7.5 BB% vs 6.8 K%).

 

In AA at age 20, Urias hit 296/398/380 (124 wRC+) in 526 PAs again walking more than striking out (12.9 BB% vs 12.4 K%).

 

This landed him at #32, #36 & #74 on the BA, MLB & BPro top 100s entering 2018.

 

His age relative results were far from middling before the PCL.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Panic scale -

1 = no concern whatsoever

5 = hit the panic button, we have a major problem

 

Urias against MLB right-handed pitching-

2018 = 40 plate appearances, .114/.200/.200/.400

2019 = 189 plate appearances, .177/.312/.259/.572

2020 = 78 plate appearances, .214/.295/.243/.538

Total = 307 plate appearances, .179/.293/.247/.540

 

Over 300 plate appearances now and the early returns are very poor.

 

Still only 23 years old.

 

Time to move the slider on the panic scale from 1 to 2?

 

410 plate appearances in the MLB. Clearly the guy can’t hit. I don’t know about panic because it wasn’t like he was some hitting machine to begin with.

 

He's 23. This seems like a horribly short-sighted comment. Unless you're being sarcastic ... then carry on.

[MrTPlush]

To panic I’d have to of really liked the trade in the first place. Only reason I didn’t hate it is because I was reserved to the fact they were going to kick Grisham out of town after his WC game blunder.

 

I think Brewer fans overhyped the addition. So many were expecting him to be a huge asset from the start and thought his injury at the start of the year was going to be a huge detriment to our success. Not sure why he ever was viewed as such.

 

The problem with Urias is the fact he has little power. Because of that he is a guy that needs to hit almost .300 to have any solid value. He has shown a little power here and there in the minors, but the MLB eye test tells me there isn’t much there realistically. Additionally he doesn’t excel defensively (he isn’t bad) and he doesn’t provide any extra value on the bases.

 

You watch him and nothing is impressive. Kind of guy you hope is just average at everything to give himself value. His 2017 minor league stats are probably what you hope for. High AVG and OBP with enough SLG to keep the OPS decent. I was hoping we got the higher ceiling player, but I’m not as convinced watching Urias. I still think he can be a nice top of the order asset though as he matures. High .200s hitter with solid OBP skills certainly has its value.

 

I still don’t overly miss Grisham...OF is such a more expendable position. We will see if he can actually be a consistent mid .800 player.

[brewers888]

Looks like another middle infielder with little power to me. The prospect sites always seem to overrate middle infielders who aren't great hitters. Both Arcia and Escobar were top 20 overall prospects that never justified their rankings.

 

I have more hope for Urias than guys like that but I doubt he will ever hit more than 10 or so HRs per season. Best case scenario is probably .280 or so hitter with a .350 OBP who slugs in the low .400s. Not a bad player for sure but definitely not worthy of the hype.

 

The question going forward is whether or not he can handle shortstop well enough and if he can that would be a plus. The trade made sense at the time as its harder to find good middle infielders than corner bats like Grisham who should not be playing CF.

[pacopete4]

After seeing Grisham flip the bird to the camers in the dugout, it made it even easier to not give a damn that he is in San Diego. Seems like a complete clown out there and I am believer that he will just be a middle of the road type player that flashes here and there.

[Lathund]

I'll start judging this trade at the all-star break next year or so, and even then with the caveat that Grisham and Urias will still have 4½ seasons worth of team control at that point and Lauer 3½.

 

We'd be somewhere in late May by this point in a normal season. And this season has been anything but. What's also making us feel worse about it is that Davies and Grisham (probably) have been overperforming so far, and I'm saying this as a fan of both. While Lauer for sure has underperformed, and Urias probably has. So time will tell. As for Davies, I think it was always quite clear that had more to do with service time and salary than expecting Lauer to be the better pitcher in 2020. They seemingly had to cut salary, and Davies was a little over $5m this year and a few more million next year before hitting free agency. Which is not unreasonable at all, but definitely the kind of player who gets traded with 1-2 years remaining if there's no interest in an extension. While Lauer gets us 5 years, the first few years very cheaply. And you can't just throw out Lauers 250 previous innings pitched because of the 9 so far this year.

[Jopal78]

To panic I’d have to of really liked the trade in the first place. Only reason I didn’t hate it is because I was reserved to the fact they were going to kick Grisham out of town after his WC game blunder.

 

I think Brewer fans overhyped the addition. So many were expecting him to be a huge asset from the start and thought his injury at the start of the year was going to be a huge detriment to our success. Not sure why he ever was viewed as such.

 

The problem with Urias is the fact he has little power. Because of that he is a guy that needs to hit almost .300 to have any solid value. He has shown a little power here and there in the minors, but the MLB eye test tells me there isn’t much there realistically. Additionally he doesn’t excel defensively (he isn’t bad) and he doesn’t provide any extra value on the bases.

 

You watch him and nothing is impressive. Kind of guy you hope is just average at everything to give himself value. His 2017 minor league stats are probably what you hope for. High AVG and OBP with enough SLG to keep the OPS decent. I was hoping we got the higher ceiling player, but I’m not as convinced watching Urias. I still think he can be a nice top of the order asset though as he matures. High .200s hitter with solid OBP skills certainly has its value.

 

I still don’t overly miss Grisham...OF is such a more expendable position. We will see if he can actually be a consistent mid .800 player.

 

I guess I am kind of on board with this, but I'm down more on Urias long term impact. I don't really care if Urias was young for AA or AAA or drew a fair share of walks in the minors. There are no Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo or Sonny Grays in the minor leagues. With the Brewers he's going to have to hit his way on board against these type of pitchers because they don't hand out a lot of walks to begin with.

 

Moreover, his percent of line drive's so far is in line with Orlando Arcia's percentage. To me, it unfortunately seems like Urias is a younger version with maybe "potential" to be an average hitter. Not a terrible player to have on your club, but not necessarily one that an organization should be giving up equally young talent to acquire.

 

Which brings us back to the trade, the main difference between Grisham and Urias is that Grisham had already experienced some success at the major league level at the time of the trade, while Urias had not. Grisham and Davies have proven they are the better players right now. Accordingly, there is no way to grade this trade in September of 2020 as anything other than a major gaffe for Milwaukee (which goes without mentioning players like Topa, Ray Black, Feyereisen have all since passed Lauer on the depth chart, and the lack of quality OF depth has lead to significant playing time in the OF being soaked up by Mathias, Sogard, Holt, Peterson etc).

 

Could Urias and Lauer develop further and make this trade a huge win for the Brewers? Sure anything is possible, but its also likely what you see is what they got. Nobody knows.

[sveumrules]

Which brings us back to the trade, the main difference between Grisham and Urias is that Grisham had already experienced some success at the major league level at the time of the trade, while Urias had not.

 

2019 Grisham | 183 PA | 91 OPS+ | 0.6 WAR

2019 Urias | 249 PA | 77 OPS+ | 0.6 WAR

[brewcrewdue80]

To panic I’d have to of really liked the trade in the first place. Only reason I didn’t hate it is because I was reserved to the fact they were going to kick Grisham out of town after his WC game blunder.

 

I think Brewer fans overhyped the addition. So many were expecting him to be a huge asset from the start and thought his injury at the start of the year was going to be a huge detriment to our success. Not sure why he ever was viewed as such.

 

The problem with Urias is the fact he has little power. Because of that he is a guy that needs to hit almost .300 to have any solid value. He has shown a little power here and there in the minors, but the MLB eye test tells me there isn’t much there realistically. Additionally he doesn’t excel defensively (he isn’t bad) and he doesn’t provide any extra value on the bases.

 

You watch him and nothing is impressive. Kind of guy you hope is just average at everything to give himself value. His 2017 minor league stats are probably what you hope for. High AVG and OBP with enough SLG to keep the OPS decent. I was hoping we got the higher ceiling player, but I’m not as convinced watching Urias. I still think he can be a nice top of the order asset though as he matures. High .200s hitter with solid OBP skills certainly has its value.

 

I still don’t overly miss Grisham...OF is such a more expendable position. We will see if he can actually be a consistent mid .800 player.

 

I don't agree on the power and .300 BA needed w/o. At this point in 2020 his LHP splits are an .819 OPS and .308/.357. Sure Love to see a RHP split far better than where it's at, but you can easily fill him with LHP platoon atop your Batting Order with .300+/350+ numbers. His Career split vs LHP is even higher. Imagine if you will a guy name Brice Turang who bats Lefty having a 2020 season to grow on and insert in the MLB lineup during the 2021 season should Urias be deemed a platoon SS/3b. Lucas Erceg as a LHB platoon mate for 3b in 2021. But what happened? Covid and a ruined year, not something one could predict during the trade.

Also the reminder once again that Stearns was in full blown "Addressing the SS position" upon the end of last season due to Arcia being an unreliable bust. Team picked up a top 20 prospect Urias vs a non top 100 prospect and afterthought player in Grisham. Traded a RH arm for a cheaper more controlled LH arm. Davies pitcher profile would clearly take a huge jump within SD vs Milw and Miller Park/AmFam. NL West is just a better division to pitch in vs the Central. Lauer has 3 Game appearances. RP 0 ERA. SP 17.55 ERA

 

It's too early to decide this trade based on all the present data. I would think it would require 2 full seasons to even begin discussing winner/loser unless it was clear who was winning the trade (like Yelich and MVP) Is Davies up for Cy Young? Is Grisham up for MVP? Most games played but not even top 10BWAR for position players, so I'd think not.

[adambr2]

After seeing Grisham flip the bird to the camers in the dugout, it made it even easier to not give a damn that he is in San Diego. Seems like a complete clown out there and I am believer that he will just be a middle of the road type player that flashes here and there.

 

When did he do this? Can't find any reference to this incident online even on Twitter. Seems like a pretty unfair take even if this did happen. I've never seen anything to indicate that Grisham lacks class much less is a complete "clown."

[ThisIsMyCrew]

After seeing Grisham flip the bird to the camers in the dugout, it made it even easier to not give a damn that he is in San Diego. Seems like a complete clown out there and I am believer that he will just be a middle of the road type player that flashes here and there.

 

When did he do this? Can't find any reference to this incident online even on Twitter. Seems like a pretty unfair take even if this did happen. I've never seen anything to indicate that Grisham lacks class much less is a complete "clown."

 

The past week vs Dodgers didn’t help his image any. I like a little show boating, but his was on another planet too much. Cursing at players while running bases.

 

He always came across to me as a pretty arrogant player. Just my thought there.

 

We could “lose” this trade and Wouldn’t lose any sleep. Long term I’ll take Lauer and Urias every day of the week.

[MrTPlush]

The right handed hitting portion of a platoon is not very valuable. If that is the end result that’s pretty lackluster. When I say valuable I’m talking an actual above average starter, heck even solidly average. For him to be that he is going to need an average near .300 because he just won’t have the power to get to that mid .700 OPS without it. He has the in base skills (it looks like) so that is good.

 

The SS position isn’t as weak as it once, you have to actually hit to be good these days. 14/25 qualified batters last year slugged .444 or higher. Urias didn’t even average that in the minors.

 

I’m not saying he doesn’t have potential, he does...but it isn’t very inspiring from the looks of it. David Stearns has had the worst offensive player in baseball 2018-2020 on his team and can’t figure out how to upgrade that. He brought in someone this year and somehow they are arguably worse.

 

From 2018-2020 the the next worst offensive player voluntarily ran out (aka isn’t playing due to a big contracts) is Freddy Galvis. Sadly, Galvis has been twice as valuable.

 

Orlando Arcia: -54.8

Freddy Galvis: -27.8

 

I really hope Urias is the answer, but I surely hope we don’t plan to waste 3 years waiting for him to break out only to be a continuation of Orlando Arcia. I will give him the benefit of the doubt because he is young/inexperienced, but honestly it is hard for anyone to be worse than Arcia offensively.

[Eye Black]

Lathund covered a lot of great points above, very well done.

 

Do I wish Urias was absolutely raking? Sure. But there is still such a large range of outcomes left for what both Grisham and Urias could become that it's premature to assign definitive conclusions.

 

Urias will still be 23 years old when next baseball season begins. Aside from true superstar caliber players, many players struggle early in their careers as they adjust to major league pitching. I would encourage folks to go back and take a look at the results from the age 21-23 seasons for many players that ultimately developed into solid to good hitters over the past decade. Players like Jose Ramirez, Eugenio Suarez, and Ketel Marte took time to become above average MLB hitters, even Jose Altuve and Javier Baez didn't immediately set the baseball world on fire. I’m not even saying I’m betting on Urias to become as good as any of those players, but many hitters that struggle early on can develop into quality major league hitters.

 

Again, I don't know what type of player Urias ultimately develops into. I’ve seen a lot of Arcia comparisons, but if I was going to compare him to a past Brewers infielder I think Jean Segura may make more sense. Segura was both very good and very bad at times during his stint with the Brewers. They traded him at 25-years old and he proceeded to put up a 6.4 WAR season (via Baseball Reference) the following year and received MVP votes. In the years since the truth has proven to be somewhere in the middle with Segura (~3 WAR player). That is sort of my guess with Urias, that he’ll have some stretches (or seasons) where he is very good and others were he's much closer average. It’s still just a guess though and I’ll wait longer before coming to any definitive conclusions regarding his future outlook.

[adambr2]

After seeing Grisham flip the bird to the camers in the dugout, it made it even easier to not give a damn that he is in San Diego. Seems like a complete clown out there and I am believer that he will just be a middle of the road type player that flashes here and there.

 

When did he do this? Can't find any reference to this incident online even on Twitter. Seems like a pretty unfair take even if this did happen. I've never seen anything to indicate that Grisham lacks class much less is a complete "clown."

 

The past week vs Dodgers didn’t help his image any. I like a little show boating, but his was on another planet too much. Cursing at players while running bases.

 

He always came across to me as a pretty arrogant player. Just my thought there.

 

We could “lose” this trade and Wouldn’t lose any sleep. Long term I’ll take Lauer and Urias every day of the week.

 

This stuff never seems to bother people until they're on another team. We're certainly not above it all. We stuck by Braun amongst one of the biggest PED scandals in baseball history and he is still pretty much loved in Wisconsin.

 

I will agree that players should know where to give it a rest on showboating, but I like that side of the coin a lot better than acting like the St. Louis Cardinals and having our feelings hurt over bat flips and stolen bases in a blowout game.