Grisham

[Oxy]

Posting this from Baseball Trade Values because I found it interesting, but I do not agree with the current valuations being this varied between Grisham and Urías...

 

 

That website is sketchy. It cut Urias's value by roughly half minutes after he was dealt to the Brewers.

 

It was trying to "correct" itself with the real world facts...which would have worked great if they just raised Grisham's value to that of/near Urias'. Instead they slashed Urias' value...and now that Grisham has had a good month they pumped up his value. So now it's all goofed up in the opposite direction that it used to be goofed up in.

[RollieTime]

Grisham is now more valuable than Hader and Hiura I guess? Sounds legit.

 

I guess we got fleeced. Too bad we can’t trade Hader straight up for Grisham. They are giving up too much to the Brewers if they were to do that.

[Eye Black]

Grisham is now more valuable than Hader and Hiura I guess? Sounds legit.

 

I guess we got fleeced. Too bad we can’t trade Hader straight up for Grisham. They are giving up too much to the Brewers if they were to do that.

An interesting thought experiment...

 

Would you trade Hader straight up to get Grisham back?

 

I would not, but I wouldn’t be shocked if others would. I think Grisham is going to be a solid player, but right now I think he’s being inflated by his performance (and hype) over a very brief period.

[balsamlaker]

Baseball is a funny game...many forget that prior to joining the Brewers last year, Grisham had batted around .230 three straight years in the minors. Too small of cell sample is always dangerous to look at...I mean Greinke throwing the 52 mph pitch past him the other night does not make him a bad hitter.

[RollieTime]

Grisham is now more valuable than Hader and Hiura I guess? Sounds legit.

 

I guess we got fleeced. Too bad we can’t trade Hader straight up for Grisham. They are giving up too much to the Brewers if they were to do that.

An interesting thought experiment...

 

Would you trade Hader straight up to get Grisham back?

 

I would not, but I wouldn’t be shocked if others would. I think Grisham is going to be a solid player, but right now I think he’s being inflated by his performance (and hype) over a very brief period.

 

That’s exactly how I feel. I certainly would not trade Hader for Grisham straight up either. Grisham may become a good player, but at this point he certainly isn’t worth more than 3.5 years of the most dominant relief pitcher in the game.

[Eye Black]

Baseball is a funny game...many forget that prior to joining the Brewers last year, Grisham had batted around .230 three straight years in the minors.

With Grisham his batting average has been fairly meaningless because he's maintained a good ability to get on-base throughout his professional career. I think long term he'll probably be a .240-.250 batting average type hitter in the majors, but that isn't necessarily a detriment for his type of profile.

 

The part I have trouble fully understanding is Grisham's sudden slugging surge. Prior to last year he was sub-.350 in slugging percentage throughout his first four seasons in the minors. Then last year between Biloxi and San Antonio he slugged over .600. During his stint with the Brewers he slugged a modest .410 over 183 plate appearances (MLB average SLG last year was .435). Now this season in San Diego he's slugging .514. I think he'll maintain fairly high OBP throughout his career, but I am still a bit skeptical he's going to maintain a .500-plus SLG.

[trwi7]

Baseball is a funny game...many forget that prior to joining the Brewers last year, Grisham had batted around .230 three straight years in the minors.

With Grisham his batting average has been fairly meaningless because he's maintained a good ability to get on-base throughout his professional career. I think long term he'll probably be a .240-.250 batting average type hitter in the majors, but that isn't necessarily a detriment for his type of profile.

 

The part I have trouble fully understanding is Grisham's sudden slugging surge. Prior to last year he was sub-.350 in slugging percentage throughout his first four seasons in the minors. Then last year between Biloxi and San Antonio he slugged over .600. During his stint with the Brewers he slugged a modest .410 over 183 plate appearances (MLB average SLG last year was .435). Now this season in San Diego he's slugging .514. I think he'll maintain fairly high OBP throughout his career, but I am still a bit skeptical he's going to maintain a .500-plus SLG.

 

It's in the article I posted.

 

Soon after he signed his first professional contract, Grisham reverted to a traditional batting grip to prove he was coachable. The experiment did not take. Still, he persisted. He went from a decent rookie-level debut to hitting .231 in Low A and then .223 in High A. His patience at the plate devolved into passivity. He continued to get on base, but his slugging percentages cratered.

 

In the middle of the 2018 Double-A season, Grisham decided he could no longer stomach his lack of production. So, he returned to his old, golf-style batting grip.

 

“One day I just said, ‘Screw it. I’m gonna go back to what got me here,’” Grisham said. “And from there, everything just started kind of clicking.”

 

Comfortable again, and with the help of the Double-A Biloxi coaching staff, Grisham honed a more aggressive approach. Instead of letting the ball travel, he sought to pull it more consistently. Gradually, his considerable power re-emerged.

 

Then it erupted. In 2019, between Double A and Triple A, Grisham hit .300/.407/.603 with 26 home runs in 370 at-bats. Despite some discussions with the Padres and other teams, the Brewers retained him at the July 31 trade deadline. Hours later, they summoned him to the majors, where he parachuted into the thick of a playoff chase.

[Eye Black]

Yes, I know he originally went away from the golf grip during instructs after the 2015 season, and went back to it in 2018. One thing I think might actually have had a bigger impact on him than the grip is the part they referenced in the article regarding the more aggressive approach. He began to focus on making contact with the ball earlier into its flight path (out in front of the plate). I also think that could be part of the reason he is currently hitting so well against fastballs and breaking balls, but not hitting off-speed pitches. When you gear up to jump on fastballs or get to breaking stuff before it breaks it will seemingly leave you susceptible to being way ahead of changeups.

[3and2Fastball]

I like the longterm potential of Urias, and thus I am very happy about the trade.

 

You have to give to get. That’s good that Grisham is doing well. The Brewers have a lot of outfielders, and outfield depth.

[trwi7]

The Brewers have a lot of outfielders, and outfield depth.

 

Our outfield depth currently consists of a 36 year old Braun, Yelich, Garcia (is anyone impressed by him?), Cain who will be 35 right after opening day next year, Corey Ray and Tyrone Taylor. If that group of outfielders impresses you in both quality and depth then I have a 1985 Yugo with your name on it.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Brewers have a lot of outfielders, and outfield depth.

 

Our outfield depth currently consists of a 36 year old Braun, Yelich, Garcia (is anyone impressed by him?), Cain who will be 35 right after opening day next year, Corey Ray and Tyrone Taylor. If that group of outfielders impresses you in both quality and depth then I have a 1985 Yugo with your name on it.

Garrett Mitchell waves hello.

 

Look. Arcia was brutally bad at the plate last season. Tell me who the depth is at SS? Brice Turang and? Who was solving the SS depth this past FA offseason? How much would that have been?

Playing at the corner corner outfield position is bloated with depth. Are they AS? No but you are going to find scrapheap .700+OPS ability all over. Not so at SS. Urias has the prospect pedigree to believe he could boast 800+ OPS

He was above 900 OPS in AAA.

He approaches just 800 OPS for a SS thats an easy 4WAR player. Better yet his BB rate over 10% in the minors cancels out Grisham's one trick pony positive he had in the minors. Both are 23. An 800 OPS bat wasnt something improving the Brewers OFs. But 800 OPS bat at SS would be a Godsend. Grisham (coming in to tonite) has 30 games played on to this season. Urias has 45 PAs. A single 3HR game would likely vault him above Grisham on OPS. It is far to early to get bent out of shape on the trade.

[adambr2]

Garrett Mitchell should probably at least begin his minor league career and come somewhere close to sniffing the high levels of the minors before he waves hello in a conversation about our outfield depth.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers have a lot of outfielders, and outfield depth.

 

Our outfield depth currently consists of a 36 year old Braun, Yelich, Garcia (is anyone impressed by him?), Cain who will be 35 right after opening day next year, Corey Ray and Tyrone Taylor. If that group of outfielders impresses you in both quality and depth then I have a 1985 Yugo with your name on it.

 

Amen to that though you could probably throw Mathias into the mix and Gamel too. By the way, even though his overall 2019 numbers don't pop out, Taylor finished last season with a late surge at AAA that was similar to the tear Grisham went on, was 4 for 10 in a few appearances in a pennant race in the majors, yet no look so far this year??? I get he was hurt in the spring and Mathias has shown he be a nice contact hitter, but I'd like to see more of Taylor who's got some power.

[Jopal78]

I’m not a believer in Urias (like Grisham, if there were not questions over his ability to hit, he wouldn’t have been available in a trade). With Davies and Grisham playing very well for the Friars, and Urias scuffling and Lauer not on the mlb team, sure it doesn’t look good now. If Lauer can get it together and Urias becomes a passable SS this deal will be fine.

 

Grisham wasn’t really needed with Braun, Cain, Yelich and Garcia. Given Braun’s relationship with the owners family, if he intends to play in 2021 I assume it will be for the Brewers. Cain will be 35 but having nearly and entire year off he will be coming in fresh and most likely will pick up where he left off this year.

 

Grisham stings right now, but with just a little production from the guys Milwaukee got it will be a zero sum situation for the Brewers as they didn’t need either two players they traded.

[MrTPlush]

We most certainly do not have OF depth. However, that is indeed much easier to fill at an average level (offensively) than it is to find a MLB competent SS. Despite an explosion of SS talent these days thanks to Latin America it is still hard to find a decent one in FA. That’s why we have had Arcia sucking it up for years. If Urias hits at an above average level that is huge.

[jjfanec]

I like Grisham but before his recent 3 home run game his OPS had dropped under .800. He hadnt hit a home run in the previous 22 games. He seems more like an .800ish OPS kind of guy which is still valuable for sure and would be nice on our current team but there is some overrating of his game in my mind. How does he grade out as a CF defensively? If he stays in CF for a while that OPS will play really well, as a corner OF it isnt that impressive.

 

Davies has been solid and that isnt a huge surprise to me. He is a good pitcher.

[wntrtxn21]

I like Grisham but before his recent 3 home run game his OPS had dropped under .800. He hadnt hit a home run in the previous 22 games. He seems more like an .800ish OPS kind of guy which is still valuable for sure and would be nice on our current team but there is some overrating of his game in my mind. How does he grade out as a CF defensively? If he stays in CF for a while that OPS will play really well, as a corner OF it isnt that impressive.

 

Davies has been solid and that isnt a huge surprise to me. He is a good pitcher.

 

Davies is a solid starter who is in a ball park that helps him a great deal. He is a contact pitcher and the bigger parks in the N.L. West will play more to his style than the hitters park in Milwaukee.

[CheezWizHed]

The Brewers have a lot of outfielders, and outfield depth.

 

Our outfield depth currently consists of a 36 year old Braun, Yelich, Garcia (is anyone impressed by him?), Cain who will be 35 right after opening day next year, Corey Ray and Tyrone Taylor. If that group of outfielders impresses you in both quality and depth then I have a 1985 Yugo with your name on it.

 

I'm concerned about our OF depth, but I'll still take the Yugo!

 

Typically picking up decent OFers is easier than finding a decent SS. Garcia (career 271/323/425 - very MLB average for OFers) signed for $10M/year. With the recent surge in SS in the MLB, I'm not sure that is still entirely true. If Grisham is only a LFer and Urias is a legit SS, then we did well. But it would seem Grisham is passable at CF and Urias similar at SS - it ends up a bit of a wash.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like Grisham but before his recent 3 home run game his OPS had dropped under .800. He hadnt hit a home run in the previous 22 games. He seems more like an .800ish OPS kind of guy which is still valuable for sure and would be nice on our current team but there is some overrating of his game in my mind. How does he grade out as a CF defensively? If he stays in CF for a while that OPS will play really well, as a corner OF it isnt that impressive.

 

Davies has been solid and that isnt a huge surprise to me. He is a good pitcher.

 

Davies is a solid starter who is in a ball park that helps him a great deal. He is a contact pitcher and the bigger parks in the N.L. West will play more to his style than the hitters park in Milwaukee.

 

I was always a huge Zach Davies fan. The guy is a solid mid-rotation starter. But that's his ceiling. It is valuable, but he's also getting to the point where he only has a couple years of control left, and will be pricier with arbitration. Eric Lauer basically profiles as a left-handed version of Davies, but is 2 1/2 years younger, with several additional years of cheap control. The guy is a good pitcher as well, and seeming that he just turned 25, he will be a future contributor. Let's not write him off completely based on a couple poor outings in the wierdest year in MLB history.

[tmwiese55]

Well remember everyone here for the last two years has been clamoring for something to be done at SS. This is what they tried. Grisham/Urias basically even as far as control/youth, upside, etc. one filled a glaring glaring hole(hopefully), the other was an OF where at the time of trade had 3 high priced guys in front of him for at least 1 year, possibly 2. And no DH. Granted with Braun's age/injuries there was going to be plenty of PT, but one clearly fit a more urgent need. Plus, we had no set 3B and still don't, so two needed spots.

 

Davis/Lauer was trading the proven and better pitcher for the younger guy with more years of cheap control. happens all the time. Generally speaking I liked Lauer as having a legit shot in the bigs even before we got him. Be careful not to rush to judgment based on 3 games in a funky year. Think how many 3-5 game stretches Davies had over the years where he looked like he was throwing BP. But man what a disappoint first couple appearances.

 

Long story short, I totally got the trade. I probably would've been fine holding off too, but I got the logic. Try to remember the conditions at the time had no DH and no Cain sitting out, as well as not rushing to judge on small samples. Still, of course 25 games in we look like the loser, but this was a trade for 5 years not one weird short season, we'll see how it goes.

[Bulldogboy]

Someone better inform Counsell that Urias was the key piece to a trade and is supposed to profile as an everyday player. If Urias is going to continue to sit and watch Eric Sogard everyday this trade isn't going to look any better.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Someone better inform Counsell that Urias was the key piece to a trade and is supposed to profile as an everyday player. If Urias is going to continue to sit and watch Eric Sogard everyday this trade isn't going to look any better.

 

Wasn't Urias's night off last night the first time he's not played in awhile? I thought he'd been pretty much playing regularly for a couple weeks now.

[timpep]

Someone better inform Counsell that Urias was the key piece to a trade and is supposed to profile as an everyday player. If Urias is going to continue to sit and watch Eric Sogard everyday this trade isn't going to look any better.

 

Wasn't Urias's night off last night the first time he's not played in awhile? I thought he'd been pretty much playing regularly for a couple weeks now.

 

Yeah he's been starting the majority of games. And going into last night he was 2 for his last 20 something so it made sense to give him a break. It just gets magnified because of how bad Sogard etc. are.

[tmwiese55]

I guess I hadn't noticed the Urias 2/20. But eye test he seems to have a good approach and feel like he must've had several in that stretch that were hard hit bad luck, especially opposite field ones. But, I'm certainly not watching as closely as in years past.

[DHonks]

I like Grisham but before his recent 3 home run game his OPS had dropped under .800. He hadnt hit a home run in the previous 22 games. He seems more like an .800ish OPS kind of guy which is still valuable for sure and would be nice on our current team but there is some overrating of his game in my mind. How does he grade out as a CF defensively? If he stays in CF for a while that OPS will play really well, as a corner OF it isnt that impressive.

 

Davies has been solid and that isnt a huge surprise to me. He is a good pitcher.

 

Davies is a solid starter who is in a ball park that helps him a great deal. He is a contact pitcher and the bigger parks in the N.L. West will play more to his style than the hitters park in Milwaukee.

 

I was always a huge Zach Davies fan. The guy is a solid mid-rotation starter. But that's his ceiling. It is valuable, but he's also getting to the point where he only has a couple years of control left, and will be pricier with arbitration. Eric Lauer basically profiles as a left-handed version of Davies, but is 2 1/2 years younger, with several additional years of cheap control. The guy is a good pitcher as well, and seeming that he just turned 25, he will be a future contributor. Let's not write him off completely based on a couple poor outings in the wierdest year in MLB history.

 

 

Davies needs a place like Petco. His dramatic drop-off in velocity the last 3 years has been very troubling. Last year he got hit hard a few times, but was otherwise good. I expected the Brewers to flip him and Anderson for whatever they could