FanGraphs Trade Value Series - 2020 Edition

[Eye Black]

For many years the FanGraphs Trade Value Series rankings were complied annually by Dave Cameron, followed by a couple of years with Kiley McDaniel (now of ESPN) taking the reins after Cameron took a job in the Padres front office. This year Craig Edwards has been tasked with continuing with the rankings. It’s an intriguing exercise that combines players perceived talent with team control and overall contract/salary owed to determine each player’s estimated value on trade market. They gather feedback from several industry sources during the process of compiling the list. It includes not just current major leaguers, but also the estimated trade value of the top prospects. The individual rankings are certainly debatable, but it’s a fun way to compare various top players.

 

They have an honorable mention category followed by unveiling the top 50 in increments of 10. As they release each update I will link them in this initial post and list which Brewers are included.

 

Honorable Mentions: Luis Urías; honorable mention list also included former Brewers prospect Trent Grisham

 

#41 to #50: Keston Hiura (#46)

 

#31 to #40: No Brewers listed

 

#21 to #30: Brandon Woodruff (#28)

 

#11 to #20: Christian Yelich (#15)

 

#1 to #10: No Brewers listed

[sveumrules]

Hader got honorable mention in both of 2018 & 2019, but no mention so far in the 2020 installments released.

 

Super two & those pesky HRs last year must have knocked him out.

 

If the increased slider consistency on display so far this year is for real, his perceived trade value will be irrelevent since he probably won't be going anywhere anyways.

[Oxy]

I'm surprised Hader was only HM last year...although his value is elevated at the trade deadline when top teams are/were looking for relief help to put them over the top in October. On a pure "franchise building" type of trade value HM was probably about right.

 

Still, there is no way that Urias has more trade value than Hader right now.

 

So, I'd expect that Hader, Yelich and Woodruff might make the list pretty soon. I think a case could have been made for Houser/Burnes/Peralta in HM as well, but understand why they would be left off.

[Eye Black]

No Brewers appeared in the #31-#40 spots. In the honorable mention section they listed 15 players that made the top 50 last year, but aren’t returning to this year’s list. So far through the first 20 spots that have been unveiled (#31-#50), 11 of them did not make last year’s list. That is a long winded way of pointing out that there are only four players remaining that didn’t appear on last year’s top 50 that will make this year’s version of the list.

 

Regarding Hader, if you look at the Baseball Trade Values website list of all players, Hader ranks #85 overall. By comparison, Woodruff ranks #41 and Hiura ranks #43 for Baseball Trade Values.

 

Having said that, last year the FanGraphs trade value exercise had a decent amount of variance from the Baseball Trade Values site. I think the differences are in part impacted by the methodology of each. They are similar in some aspects such as weighting the contracts and years of control remaining. The biggest difference as I understand it is the Baseball Trade Values site attempts to reverse engineer past trades/transactions to help set the market for future trade values, while the FanGraphs list does rely on their contacts across the industry as well as those with individual organizations to assist with drafting and reviewing their list. The latter is probably open to a little heavier dose of anecdotal feedback, but it’s also tough to argue with hearing feedback straight from the horse’s mouth.

[sveumrules]

Yelich was #7 in 2019, gotta figure the extension knocks him down a little so I'd probably guess he ends up in the 11-20 range.

 

Woodruff was #41 last year & hasn't shown up yet (& wasn't on the list of non-returning players) so gotta figure he'll be in the 21-30 range.

 

In terms of Hader, I think the crux of why he is unlikely to be traded is because the league in general undervalues relievers (even elite ones like Hader) while Stearns & company understand they are comparable in value to #1 starters.

 

Top Ten in Win Probability Added since 2017 is Verlander (13.16), Scherzer (12.87), deGrom (12.42), Felipe Vazquez (10.11), Hader (8.87), Cole (8.85), Kershaw (8.77), Greinke (8.73), Nola (8.69) & Clevinger (8.51).

 

There are also another six relievers from 11-30 on that WPA since 2017 leaderboard; Kenley Jansen, Yusmeiro Petit, Alex Colome, Taylor Rogers, Brad Hand & Blake Treinen.

[Eye Black]

The #21-#30 list was released today and Brandon Woodruff is at #28. I think it's safe to say we aren't going to see Hader on the list. I think sveumrules nailed the reasoning, on the whole relievers are undervalued. They are also often the last piece added to a true contending team, so they can be prone to exceeding their perceived "market value" in times when teams get particularly desperate for them (i.e. everyone's favorite Aroldis Chapman / Gleybar Torres example). It is the reason that generally speaking I think top end relievers are valued much higher in-season than they are during the off-season.

[KeithStone53151]

Hader not making the top 50 could have a ton to do with fangraph/WAR/etc not knowing how to properly value relievers. Is Corbin Burnes 3.0 ERA over 21 innings more valuable than Hader 7 innings of 0 ERA? I know it isn't quite that simple, but WAR says Burnes has been more valuable. High end relievers tend to have value similar to solid/unspectacular starters according to WAR.

[Eye Black]

Yelich was #7 in 2019, gotta figure the extension knocks him down a little so I'd probably guess he ends up in the 11-20 range.

The #11-#20 range was released today, and Yelich ended up right in the middle of it at #15. Today's FanGraphs article linked above touches on the Yelich extension guaranteeing him $200 million. I think if he was still on his old contract his trade value would have remained slightly better on this list.