Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns

[MrTPlush]

Corey Ray was considered a raw college bat. Not as raw as some high school kid, but not a fly to the majors in a year like you would typically expect of a Top 5 draft pick out of college to do. He certainly wasn't considered a super high ceiling guy. I remember we were grilled over that pick pretty good because he didn't show that much power in college (that looked like it would translate to MLB) and he didn't really have the defense to stick in CF. Thus, he was labeled a tweener OFer. I also recall people really hating the fact over three years in college baseball he really didn't improve at all, something many thought was a red flag.

 

I wouldn't call him a complete bust quite yet. 2018 looked promising when his power seemingly broke out...however that didn't stick in 2019. I thought 2020 would be his prove it year. I don't know if his lack of inclusion at any point this year is super telling. Unlikely he would be a replacement guy when Counsell will want someone more versatile. He looked bad in ST training though and last season was pretty ugly to boot. That homer '3and2' referenced in spring training was his only hit in spring training this year in 20 tries. He struck out in 50% of his PAs. That's pretty sad considering you don't typically face a lot of good pitchers in spring training, especially when you are a mid-game sub like Ray.

[MrTPlush]

Yes it does hurt the only top pick we got in our rebuild has flopped so far. Not unlike the Bucks and Jabari. Just eyeballed that draft though and not a lot has hit in the picks immediately after him. Few names I see who've made the bigs but nothing special yet. The one that most would probably want is Lux but he was picked all the way at 20. AJ Puk right after at 6 is probably the one you'd hindsight take who was in the same range of picks.

 

-Kyle Lewis was picked shortly after. He was also a college bat and he is doing pretty well these days. He was someone connected to us.

-A.J. Puk is pretty solid and half the forum wanted him.

-Manning and Quantrill went in the Top 10.

-I could be wrong, but I believe we were connected to Whitley at the time.

-Of course one of the guys we were close to picking (Blake Rutherford) has not done very well himself either.

 

The success (mostly in the minors thus far) after our pick is pretty staggering honestly. Lots of top prospects and a few guys already doing well in the majors.

[Devinep]

Just by looking at OPS+, I’ll admit some of the signings weren’t exactly exciting, but this team would easily be in playoff contention if theirs players just played to expectations. While Sogard, Holt, avi, and Smoak aren’t great, they were all about average Hitters last year. For them to be so bad this year was not something most people predicted. And Narvaez was well above average, so it’s tough to blame this season on Stearns, who was financially constrained as well. And it’s even tougher to make any long term judgements about his job from this season

[sveumrules]

Since Stearns got here in 2016, we have won the exact same number of games as the Oakland Athletics & one more than the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

We have also won more playoff games than either of the typically lauded small market success stories.

 

As much as has gone wrong with the offense this year, we are still around a 50/50 shot at the playoffs at the moment.

 

Stearns & company are just fine.

[3and2Fastball]

I continue to believe the biggest problem with Stearns is the budget set by ownership.

 

It’s like somebody giving you 2 wings, a 20 year old engine, a 10 year old wheel, and some toothpicks, paper clips and duct tape and saying “build me a plane” and then later saying “OK now make it a fighter jet”.

 

Somebody in the Trade Rumor forum said that they think Mark will slash payroll even more in this next offseason. I think they are right.

 

And I get why that makes it all that much more important to get your draft picks right. I have always felt that the Brewers should invest more in the top Latin American players as international signings. However, I check my email every day and Stearns hasn’t asked for my advice.

[sveumrules]

Unless you think the rest of the baseball world has some bias against the Brewers we have probably the worst farm system in baseball. Part of that is bad drafts before Stearns was hired but I would guess that we still have most of the same scouts in place. There is nothing more important than having a consistent flow of good young talent coming from the minor leagues and we just don't have that.

 

2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff

2018: Burnes, Peralta

2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham

2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias)

 

A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me.

[tmwiese55]

Yes it does hurt the only top pick we got in our rebuild has flopped so far. Not unlike the Bucks and Jabari. Just eyeballed that draft though and not a lot has hit in the picks immediately after him. Few names I see who've made the bigs but nothing special yet. The one that most would probably want is Lux but he was picked all the way at 20. AJ Puk right after at 6 is probably the one you'd hindsight take who was in the same range of picks.

 

-Kyle Lewis was picked shortly after. He was also a college bat and he is doing pretty well these days. He was someone connected to us.

-A.J. Puk is pretty solid and half the forum wanted him.

-Manning and Quantrill went in the Top 10.

-I could be wrong, but I believe we were connected to Whitley at the time.

-Of course one of the guys we were close to picking (Blake Rutherford) has not done very well himself either.

 

The success (mostly in the minors thus far) after our pick is pretty staggering honestly. Lots of top prospects and a few guys already doing well in the majors.

 

Yea I have no comment on how those guys are doing in the minors, but as you say I'm sure much better than Ray. And some might do well in the bigs still. I was just saying really none taken right after have blown up in the bigs yet. Puk probably being the most success. Basically it's not like Seattle taken Jeff Clement and then watching as Braun, Zimmerman, Tulo started tearing up the bigs within 2-3 years of the draft. Of course, this could look much worse a year from now if some of the guys you said do start having some big league success. Lewis seems to be on that track.

[sveumrules]

For me, it really comes down to being able to draft and develop players better than we have in the past. Even in the Stearns era, it hasn’t been that good although I know we unloaded some good prospects to get Yelich. It’s pretty simple - if we can draft and develop some of these draft picks then we don’t have to go out and sign the likes of Eric Sogard and Justin Smoak to fill holes. I haven’t lost confidence in Stearns but we need to start drafting and developing better. Plain and simple.

 

No players from the 2020 or 2019 drafts have reached MLB as of yet.

 

Only two players drafted in the first round after Brice Turang in 2018 have reached MLB even sparingly so far.

 

So, it is too early to pass any judgement on 2018-2020 drafts.

 

In 2017 we drafted Keston in the first round with a number of later round picks still looking to have a decent chance at some point down the road (Lutz, Francis, Bettinger, Lazar, File)

 

Sure, Ray & Erceg have bombed from 2016, but we still have Feliciano/Henry in the minors & Burnes at the MLB level.

 

So when you say "it hasn't been that good in the Stearns era" or "we need to start drafting & developing better. Plain and simple.", you are basing that stance on essentially two picks, Ray & Erceg.

[Jopal78]

Corey Ray is a bust, plain and simple. Keep in mind the Brewers drafted Trent Grisham out of high school the year before selecting Ray out of college and Grisham made the major leagues in 2019.

 

At this point they should probably play Ray instead of Gamel, Peterson, etc to find out if there’s any glimmer of a player to justify further development if Corey Ray

[shanedog19]

I haven't lost confidence in Stearns. However, he didn't have a good offseason and the farm system is ranked #29 out of 30. Thankfully, many of the offseason contracts are one year deals and we can mostly start over heading into 2021. The farm system has to improve, Stearns has been here since 2016 and that was one of the things he was going to focus on improving when he got here. It just hasn't happened so far.

[PeaveyFury]

I haven't lost confidence in Stearns. However, he didn't have a good offseason and the farm system is ranked #29 out of 30. Thankfully, many of the offseason contracts are one year deals and we can mostly start over heading into 2021. The farm system has to improve, Stearns has been here since 2016 and that was one of the things he was going to focus on improving when he got here. It just hasn't happened so far.

 

That's simply not accurate. The farm system dramatically improved, then they used it to acquire the players that got them to the playoffs the last two years, dropping it down again.

[brewers888]

I haven't lost confidence in Stearns. However, he didn't have a good offseason and the farm system is ranked #29 out of 30. Thankfully, many of the offseason contracts are one year deals and we can mostly start over heading into 2021. The farm system has to improve, Stearns has been here since 2016 and that was one of the things he was going to focus on improving when he got here. It just hasn't happened so far.

 

That's simply not accurate. The farm system dramatically improved, then they used it to acquire the players that got them to the playoffs the last two years, dropping it down again.

 

Weren't the majority of the players that were traded away either drafted by other organizations or here before Stearns got the GM job. I don't think we have drafted well at all and that goes to way before Stearns arrived.

[thebruce44]

Corey Ray is a bust, plain and simple. Keep in mind the Brewers drafted Trent Grisham out of high school the year before selecting Ray out of college and Grisham made the major leagues in 2019.

 

At this point they should probably play Ray instead of Gamel, Peterson, etc to find out if there’s any glimmer of a player to justify further development if Corey Ray

 

A lot of players with Ray's skillset develop later in their careers. I think it was Doug Melvin who I heard first say that and he started targeting those types (Podsednick, Brady Clark, Carlos Gomez). There is still time for Ray to figure it out and be a successful MLB player.

[Jopal78]

Corey Ray is a bust, plain and simple. Keep in mind the Brewers drafted Trent Grisham out of high school the year before selecting Ray out of college and Grisham made the major leagues in 2019.

 

At this point they should probably play Ray instead of Gamel, Peterson, etc to find out if there’s any glimmer of a player to justify further development if Corey Ray

 

A lot of players with Ray's skillset develop later in their careers. I think it was Doug Melvin who I heard first say that and he started targeting those types (Podsednick, Brady Clark, Carlos Gomez). There is still time for Ray to figure it out and be a successful MLB player.

 

 

Well, I don’t think teams draft a college bat #5 overall with the belief his skill set will develop later in his career. Teams draft college bats so they can plug them into the line sooner up than later.

 

Moreover, Ray was a #5 draft pick. Only one of the players you cited was even drafted (Pods) and that was in the 3rd round.

[sveumrules]

Weren't the majority of the players that were traded away either drafted by other organizations or here before Stearns got the GM job. I don't think we have drafted well at all and that goes to way before Stearns arrived.

 

What bearing does what happened before Stearns got here have on his performance?

 

I listed what look to be 10 long term pieces above that were either drafted, developed or acquired by Stearns & company that are already making an MLB impact.

 

The only guy we've traded away that really falls into that category is Grisham at this point. I think the record of their evals on who to keep versus who to deal pretty much speaks for itself.

 

Im terms of MLB impact, the 2018-20 drafts are essentially non-factors, though Drew Rasmussen is one of only ten 2018 draftees to have debuted thus far, so that's pretty cool for a 6th rounder.

 

We've already got Burnes & Hiura out of 2016-17 (the only drafts of Stearns tenure that we can maybe begin to draw some conclusions from given prospect developement timelines) with another half dozen or so guys that still could do something.

 

Outside of Ray/Erceg, why do you think they haven't drafted well?

[Warning Track Power]

I haven't lost confidence in Stearns. However, he didn't have a good offseason and the farm system is ranked #29 out of 30. Thankfully, many of the offseason contracts are one year deals and we can mostly start over heading into 2021. The farm system has to improve, Stearns has been here since 2016 and that was one of the things he was going to focus on improving when he got here. It just hasn't happened so far.

I think this sums up my feeling on the subject. Yes they traded a ton to get Yelich and others leading to a worse farm system and time is needed to build it back up. As I’ve indicated elsewhere, this offseason seemed like he was going the Ted Thompson route and tried to be the smartest man in the room with offseason signings of below average players and pass them off as legit players.

 

Should we be more worried about coaching though with Garcia and Narvaez’s drastic decline from what they were in previous seasons, as well as Davies and Grisham’s emergence in San Diego.

[trwi7]

Unless you think the rest of the baseball world has some bias against the Brewers we have probably the worst farm system in baseball. Part of that is bad drafts before Stearns was hired but I would guess that we still have most of the same scouts in place. There is nothing more important than having a consistent flow of good young talent coming from the minor leagues and we just don't have that.

 

2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff

2018: Burnes, Peralta

2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham

2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias)

 

A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me.

 

Half of those guys are relievers and you’re really stretching it calling Suter a good, young talent considering he’s 31 without a lot of talent.

[brewers888]

Unless you think the rest of the baseball world has some bias against the Brewers we have probably the worst farm system in baseball. Part of that is bad drafts before Stearns was hired but I would guess that we still have most of the same scouts in place. There is nothing more important than having a consistent flow of good young talent coming from the minor leagues and we just don't have that.

 

2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff

2018: Burnes, Peralta

2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham

2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias)

 

A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me.

 

How many of those players are impact talents. Looks like the makings of a terrific bullpen and not much else.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Can you really say much for sure about the Brewers' system right now other than that they don't have a top-20, MLB-ready stud? The 2020 draft class hasn't debuted, the 2019 draft class got half a season and the guys who received the third and fourth highest bonuses have played in a combined 11 games, and four of their first five picks in the 2018 draft (and six of the first nine) were high schoolers. Plus it is too soon to tell if the increased investments in Latin American signings under Stearns will pay off because, you know, none of those guys can even drink yet.

[trwi7]

Can you really say much for sure about the Brewers' system right now other than that they don't have a top-20, MLB-ready stud? The 2020 draft class hasn't debuted, the 2019 draft class got half a season and the guys who received the third and fourth highest bonuses have played in a combined 11 games, and four of their first five picks in the 2018 draft (and six of the first nine) were high schoolers. Plus it is too soon to tell if the increased investments in Latin American signings under Stearns will pay off because, you know, none of those guys can even drink yet.

 

How is this different than any other team? This isn’t a case for the Brewers.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Can you really say much for sure about the Brewers' system right now other than that they don't have a top-20, MLB-ready stud? The 2020 draft class hasn't debuted, the 2019 draft class got half a season and the guys who received the third and fourth highest bonuses have played in a combined 11 games, and four of their first five picks in the 2018 draft (and six of the first nine) were high schoolers. Plus it is too soon to tell if the increased investments in Latin American signings under Stearns will pay off because, you know, none of those guys can even drink yet.

 

How is this different than any other team? This isn’t a case for the Brewers.

 

Of course it is the case for every team. Not trying to compare the Brewers to anyone else. But if you're saying the farm system is barren or that the recent drafting has been bad, well it's tough to support that, in my opinion (also tough to support that it is good). Too much is frustratingly TBD right now.

[sveumrules]

Unless you think the rest of the baseball world has some bias against the Brewers we have probably the worst farm system in baseball. Part of that is bad drafts before Stearns was hired but I would guess that we still have most of the same scouts in place. There is nothing more important than having a consistent flow of good young talent coming from the minor leagues and we just don't have that.

 

2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff

2018: Burnes, Peralta

2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham

2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias)

 

A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me.

 

How many of those players are impact talents. Looks like the makings of a terrific bullpen and not much else.

 

Your original quote was good young talent, impact talents is moving the goal posts.

 

Either way, Woodruff (#28) & Hiura (#46) both just made FanGraphs Top 50 trade value series. Hader is the best reliever in baseball & Williams isn't far behind. I'd say that's four impact talents.

 

If your expectation is to graduate multiple high impact talents year in & year out, all while drafting at the back end, I guess I just don't believe that is a realistic expectation. Especially in only four years.

 

Stearns & company also used a bunch of highly ranked, no results so far prospects to acquire the #15 entry on the FanGraphs top 50 trade value series.

[HiAndTight]

Unless you think the rest of the baseball world has some bias against the Brewers we have probably the worst farm system in baseball. Part of that is bad drafts before Stearns was hired but I would guess that we still have most of the same scouts in place. There is nothing more important than having a consistent flow of good young talent coming from the minor leagues and we just don't have that.

 

2017: Suter, Hader, Woodruff

2018: Burnes, Peralta

2019: Keston, Adrian, Grisham

2020: Williams, Rasmussen, (Urias)

 

A couple two tree long term pieces coming up each year seems like a pretty consistent flow to me.

 

How many of those players are impact talents. Looks like the makings of a terrific bullpen and not much else.

 

Woodruff has a 3.36 FIP primarly as a starting pitcher.

Burnes has been outstanding this year and he was outstanding as a rookie, including the post-season.

Hiura looks like a middle of the order 2nd basemen.

Hader's been one of the top relievers in baseball the last two years and Devin Williams may be the top reliever thus far in the NL.

 

What exactly are you looking for? Yearly Tatis Jr type players coming through the system?

[3and2Fastball]

 

What exactly are you looking for? Yearly Tatis Jr type players coming through the system?

 

Yes. And trading for Trout.

[brewcrewdue80]

Guy makes one offseason of moves that haven't turned out in the first 60+games and boom you've lost confidence in him? Still going to call him one of the best GM's in baseball and please stay in the Milw organization another 10 years at minimum!

Fact of the matter is the hitters aren't hitting. Remotely at all like you'd even expect as just an average year for them.

Josh Lindblom a 3yr 9mil contract experiment as a #4/5 SP is off to a poor start. And it may not work at all. 3mil a year is less than the average salary for a MLB player. Had the move worked the extreme positive would be GM of the Year type stuff. If and When waiving him should occur, the team won't be staring at him 3M cost and say we're handcuffed for the next 5years.

Garcia's 2/20mil contract or 3/30 is a cheaper contract and the guy posted 7WAR over the last 3years. Age 29 is still during prime age year and age 30 is the expected begin to fall off. Well, 18,19, and 20HR seasons were his last 3 seasons. None of that would predict that Garcia having the worst hitting year by far in his entire career at 77OPS+ vs an 89OPS+ career low.

Phelps is an epic signing. 1.5mil this year, netted .6BWAR and now 3 lottery ticket prospects.

Smoak a Switch hitting 1b. Off of a lull year and signed to basically MLB average salary. 5BWAR combined the 2 years prior. He's having HIS worst Batting season of his career. Who at 1b would you have picked up? while solving the L/R platoon mix Counsell enjoys playing.

Brett Anderson. For 5mil, he's more than earning his salary thus far.

Lindblom/Anderson were moves that helped deepen the pitching in case you lost out on Freddy Peralta for one(who was lights out during Spring Training and received a deal), Burnes who was lost last year, and Lauer acquired in trade.

Again, so Stearns filled #4 and #5 in the rotation for 1 season for 8mil. With Upside behind them that we're waiting to take shape. Complaining about the team's hitters in the minors, is ignoring the fact on what the team has been bringing up and producing in the last few seasons in pitching. These 2 are just placeholders awaiting this wave of upside. Had he signed Lindblom or Anderson to say 3yr/33mil deals(Lohse anyone?) that would be the sign of handcuffing the team and Counsell with inserting the two in the rotation as often as possible the next 3 years. Doing so would block the guys like Houser/Burnes/Peralta from starting. (I've seen guys clamor towards Rasmussen starting a game. If he could, he's not blocked next season)

Narvaez. He has an OB pct just 10pts currently that was above his career BA and that OB is over 100pts below his career OB. Age 28. Prime. This should not be happening and completely unpredictable.

Urias. Stearns said he'd fix SS and he acquired a top 25 prospect who had just 83games up to age 23 career. A career that is now 102 games old.

Grisham. Well if you want to be upset towards the bats above not producing to their career norms or expectations. It's pretty safe to say Grisham's career norms was one of a .700OPS and you'd mope about how talentless a 700OPS OF is. A AAA HR ball that led to a career year(Sogard in a moment) a .738 OPS Brewer year. Yeah I'm sure at .738OPS you'd want that in your pocket for a lineup. I mentioned previously, what SS was available affordably who presents the upside Urias could bring this offseason? Meanwhile a .738+ OPS OF bat was easily there to buy in Garcia. Give it some time it'll more than pay off.

Sogard imo was backup for terrible Arcia and Urias recovering from injury. But I'm sure most forget that. Counsell's usage of Sogard vs Urias is the problem. Not Stearns.

Gyorko is a placeholder at 3b who for half the price of a MLB salary has outperformed that. 1yr commitment.

 

So why are we complaining again for a 1 year commitment on majority of offseason transactions? How about complain after 2021 season if Stearns has immense unlucky moves. and poor results. Say Stearns let's Haines go and finds a new hitting coach, whoa solved. MiLB isn't playing, firing Haines today, he wouldn't have the hitting coach worthy of a promote from the minors to replace with. Who's he going to replace him with? This offseason he can pluck somebody from another team to do so. One Year.

Think about that. One Year. Ever learn from your mistakes? Because they losing confidence in Stearns over 1 stupid year is saying you never ever learned from a mistake. You never ever evolved from a mistake. And these moves are not even a mistake! It's an experiment imo. Something you learn from.

 

For me, it really comes down to being able to draft and develop players better than we have in the past. Even in the Stearns era, it hasn’t been that good although I know we unloaded some good prospects to get Yelich. It’s pretty simple - if we can draft and develop some of these draft picks then we don’t have to go out and sign the likes of Eric Sogard and Justin Smoak to fill holes. I haven’t lost confidence in Stearns but we need to start drafting and developing better. Plain and simple.

 

It takes time on draft picks(D. Williams for example) Hiura is ahead of the curve. Many top picks/prospects were used to be a winning team 3 straight years. The depth from finding pitching is much, much better than EVER. Turang/Lutz were the following season after Hiura. You've just gotta give it another 2 years to really make any claim on how his drafting players have gone. He's backfilling the minors on trades. We haven't seen the blockbuster trade where he acquires prospects for one of the team's soon to become final year control/FA players, but it's getting closer. That move will influx talent, and I believe it will begin a churn of adding talent. In a way he did that with Davies/Grisham only with ML pieces vs prospects.