Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns

[FVBrewerFan]

Regarding the Brewers cutting payroll in the offseason:

 

Everyone knew Moustakas & Grandal were here on 1-year deals. Many wanted them re-signed, but they signed for monster deals elsewhere... much more than we paid them.

 

Perez, Thames, Shaw, Guerra, Barnes, Saladino and Spangenberg were all under control, but the Brewers didn't think they were worth what they had to pay to keep them. Perez signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, Thames signed a $4M deal with the Nationals (I think we would have owed him $8M). Shaw signed a $4M deal with Toronto (we paid him $4.675M in year 1 arby, so would have probably paid him at least $6M in year 2 arby). We paid Junior Guerra $2.225M and he was heading into arby (he signed for $2.65 with Arizona - probably about what we'd have paid). Barnes was playing for league minimum, heading into year 1 arby, and is now playing for the Angels for $685,000. Saladino is playing in Korea, and Spangenberg is playing in Japan.

 

I think that 2019 payroll was artificially inflated because we had the opportunity to get Moustakas and Grandal on one-year deals, so I didn't expect that money to automatically be available unless there was a top-tier guy we could land. It seems that Stearns went pretty hard after Rendon, but he signed with the Angels, so Stearns signed some guys with good career splits, looking to platoon.

 

So, last year's payroll was $122M, with Mous and Grandal making $23M. They left, and this year's payroll was $102M before Covid shortened the season. The big cut in payroll was exclusively Mous and Grandal.

 

Next year, Braun, Anderson, Smoak, Sogard, and Gyorko will probably be gone, and Holt is already gone. If Stearns can land an "A" talent, Attanasio will probably increase payroll. If not, then I expect we'll make some trades to try to add more young, controllable talent for the "core," and the rest of the holes will be filled with one-year free agent signings, keeping the payroll somewhere around where it currently sits.

 

Of course, this is contingent on the expectation that things will be back to normal next year. If owners think that next year will be played with no fans, or limited fans, it's going to be a tough year for free agents.

 

 

Very good summary Monty. I think it's clear Mark A doesn't have a firm salary set every season. There is a range, and if the right opportunity presents itself (Cain, extending Yelich) he will spend more money. Instead of a knock on Stearns, it's actually pretty amazing he was able to get both Grandal and Moose on one year deals last year.

[TURBO]

I think an obvious question that belongs in this thread is this:

 

Has anyone GAINED confidence in Stearns ?

[BrewCrewForever]

I sure as hell am not jumping ship on what Stearns has done here in five years. Way more ups than downs from what I can see.

[pacopete4]

I sure as hell am not jumping ship on what Stearns has done here in five years. Way more ups than downs from what I can see.

 

Correct. And by the time the seasons over I think the new players will be alright and we will looks at things a bit differently.

[monty57]

I think an obvious question that belongs in this thread is this:

 

Has anyone GAINED confidence in Stearns ?

 

Over what time frame?

 

As long as someone sticks to a philosophy, my opinion on them won't change in the short-term. I think he's built a major league team with a lot of talented players with years of "team control." As long as he continues to do that, I think Brewer fans are in for more good years than bad years under Stearns' tenure.

[Jopal78]

He’s got three consecutive winning seasons and back to back playoff appearances. That tops what Doug Melvin, Dean Taylor and Sal Bando were ever capable of doing so I think the job he’s doing is fine.

 

Given close to 40 out of the Brewers’ 50 overall seasons could best be described as examples of ineptitude, I do not think anyone can seriously be disappointed in the job Stearns has done.

[3and2Fastball]

I think an obvious question that belongs in this thread is this:

 

Has anyone GAINED confidence in Stearns ?

 

Yes. I have. I think Jopal78 put it better than I would have, below:

 

 

He’s got three consecutive winning seasons and back to back playoff appearances. That tops what Doug Melvin, Dean Taylor and Sal Bando were ever capable of doing so I think the job he’s doing is fine.

 

Given close to 40 out of the Brewers’ 50 overall seasons could best be described as examples of ineptitude, I do not think anyone can seriously be disappointed in the job Stearns has done.

 

I strongly agree. I think Stearns is limited in what he can do, due to budget concerns, too.

[brewers888]

So all we did is dump 4.5 million off next years payroll by trading Phelps. We are truly in no mans land; not good enough to add and not bad enough to draft in the top 5.

 

After last offseason and the nothing of a deadline this year I am off the Stearns bandwagon. We have arguably the worst lineup in baseball and a barren farm system. Better that he didn't trade Hader for scraps but we badly need to add some position player talent to this awful lineup.

 

Its truly a shame that this organization seems to be backsliding. Other than the bullpen this team has no other strengths and nothing on the horizon in the system to help us in the near future.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So all we did is dump 4.5 million off next years payroll by trading Phelps. We are truly in no mans land; not good enough to add and not bad enough to draft in the top 5.

 

After last offseason and the nothing of a deadline this year I am off the Stearns bandwagon. We have arguably the worst lineup in baseball and a barren farm system. Better that he didn't trade Hader for scraps but we badly need to add some position player talent to this awful lineup.

 

Its truly a shame that this organization seems to be backsliding. Other than the bullpen this team has no other strengths and nothing on the horizon in the system to help us in the near future.

 

Go cheer for a different team then.

[PeaveyFury]

Posted in another thread, but one more time for emphasis:

 

Brewer fans over the past week: "I'll only make trades for a very limited set of very elite prospects or established all-star caliber players."

 

Brewer fans today: "OMG, I can't believe we didn't make more trades!"

[PeaveyFury]

After last offseason and the nothing of a deadline this year I am off the Stearns bandwagon. We have arguably the worst lineup in baseball and a barren farm system. Better that he didn't trade Hader for scraps but we badly need to add some position player talent to this awful lineup.

 

If the farm system is barren, what exactly were they using to add some position player talent to the awful lineup?

[sveumrules]

So all we did is dump 4.5 million off next years payroll by trading Phelps. We are truly in no mans land; not good enough to add and not bad enough to draft in the top 5.

 

After last offseason and the nothing of a deadline this year I am off the Stearns bandwagon. We have arguably the worst lineup in baseball and a barren farm system. Better that he didn't trade Hader for scraps but we badly need to add some position player talent to this awful lineup.

 

Its truly a shame that this organization seems to be backsliding. Other than the bullpen this team has no other strengths and nothing on the horizon in the system to help us in the near future.

 

When you posted your "Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns" thread last year on September 6th, the Brewers playoff odds were around 8%. Yet, they still made the playoffs & almost beat the eventual World Series Champion. Right now, the Brewers playoff odds are around 51%.

 

Interestingly, when the Brewers went on their crazy September streak following your Stearns thread last year, you didn't make a single post again until October.

 

Must not have been very exciting.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So all we did is dump 4.5 million off next years payroll by trading Phelps. We are truly in no mans land; not good enough to add and not bad enough to draft in the top 5.

 

After last offseason and the nothing of a deadline this year I am off the Stearns bandwagon. We have arguably the worst lineup in baseball and a barren farm system. Better that he didn't trade Hader for scraps but we badly need to add some position player talent to this awful lineup.

 

Its truly a shame that this organization seems to be backsliding. Other than the bullpen this team has no other strengths and nothing on the horizon in the system to help us in the near future.

 

When you posted your "Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns" thread last year on September 6th, the Brewers playoff odds were around 8%. Yet, they still made the playoffs & almost beat the eventual World Series Champion. Right now, the Brewers playoff odds are around 51%.

 

Interestingly, when the Brewers went on their crazy September streak following your Stearns thread last year, you didn't make a single post again until October.

 

Must not have been very exciting.

 

He's also MIA on In-Game Threads during any game the Brewers are playing well. One would think that if a fan is seeking excitement, they'd want to share their enthusiasm with their fellow fans when the team is playing well.

 

I could be off base, though.

[brewerfan82]

Posted in another thread, but one more time for emphasis:

 

Brewer fans over the past week: "I'll only make trades for a very limited set of very elite prospects or established all-star caliber players."

 

Brewer fans today: "OMG, I can't believe we didn't make more trades!"

[sarcasm]Are you suggesting Stearns is incapable of forcing other teams to severely overpay for players in order to make these valid reactions?[/sarcasm]

[StearnsFTW]

So all we did is dump 4.5 million off next years payroll by trading Phelps. We are truly in no mans land; not good enough to add and not bad enough to draft in the top 5.

 

After last offseason and the nothing of a deadline this year I am off the Stearns bandwagon. We have arguably the worst lineup in baseball and a barren farm system. Better that he didn't trade Hader for scraps but we badly need to add some position player talent to this awful lineup.

 

Its truly a shame that this organization seems to be backsliding. Other than the bullpen this team has no other strengths and nothing on the horizon in the system to help us in the near future.

 

Boy, when you come up with an addled opinion, you stick to it, I'll give you that.

[adambr2]

I do think when you look at the current state of the organization, it's fair to express some disappointment in the current direction. The farm system situation isn't good and the young talent on this team is extremely lacking for where it needs to be to put a perennial contender in Milwaukee.

 

None of this is to say Stearns has been bad. He's made some good and bad moves, and overall I would still rate him as an above average GM. The "genius" label has definitely lost some of it's luster, though. Major points for the Yelich acquisition, but when you consider the supporting cast, this offense without Yelich is probably the worst in baseball.

 

Also -- people like to often point out the playoff appearances of Stearns compared to his predecessors. While definitely worth some points to DS, it's just not an apples to apples comparison. Baseball used to have just 4 playoff teams, then it went to 8, and then to 10 in the Stearns era, and now even 16 this year.

 

Sal Bando and Harry Dalton both also had 90+ win seasons for the Brewers in '87 and '92 with nothing to show for it. It's misleading to compare making the playoffs in that era with the current era.

[Oxy]

The 3 year deal to Lindblom is looking pretty bad. Luckily for Stearns he can probably ride out the rest of the year okay and hope he comes back better next year (at 34?!?!) and if he doesn't it's easier to eat 4.5M or so? And if he is pretty good it's not a bad deal? Struggling to find the upside here.

[Jopal78]

The team is best known for ineptitude and therefore “competence” often gets mistook for “mastery”. Stearns, like Melvin before him, is a competent GM. Certainly not in the same class as Cashman, Friedman, Epstein, Beane etc.

 

He had some moves that worked out and allowed him to field a winner Right away without taking the rebuild down to the studs. But now the organization is feeling the pain of not having enough talent to get it done on the field and not having any difference makers in the minor league pipeline.

 

You can fault Stearns for picking the wrong guys like Sogard, Lindblom, etc. However, he took some chances to build an unconventional team in 2020 and it didn’t work out. From that perspective, what else is a GM going to do when he’s never going to be handing out 100 million dollar contracts to elite free agents like the big boys.

[PeaveyFury]

The team is best known for ineptitude and therefore “competence” often gets mistook for “mastery”. Stearns, like Melvin before him, is a competent GM. Certainly not in the same class as Cashman, Friedman, Epstein, Beane etc.

 

I’d argue you have it backwards- other than maybe Beane, and with a nod to Friedman’s time in Tampa, those are the competent GMs. Stearns is outstanding because he worked with a fraction of the funds those guys did. All you have to do with a monster payroll and deep pockets to eat huge contracts that don’t work out is be competent.

[adambr2]

Epstien to me is the most overrated GM in baseball. He's had almost bottomless pockets to throw at every problem he's ever had. When you look at his biggest moves individually, it's amazing how many turned out to be utter dog crap.

[wntrtxn21]

The 3 year deal to Lindblom is looking pretty bad. Luckily for Stearns he can probably ride out the rest of the year okay and hope he comes back better next year (at 34?!?!) and if he doesn't it's easier to eat 4.5M or so? And if he is pretty good it's not a bad deal? Struggling to find the upside here.

 

Lindblom has been awful this year and looks to be another 2020 journeyman mistake by Stearns. In 7 starts: 30.2 IPs - 22 ERs - a whopping 6 HRs allowed - 32 hits allowed - walked 15 - 6.46 ERA. He is scheduled to make a little over $3M for the next two years. Maybe a move to the pen might help, but who would be the 5th starter? CC just doesn't have many good options anywhere this year.

[Jopal78]

The team is best known for ineptitude and therefore “competence” often gets mistook for “mastery”. Stearns, like Melvin before him, is a competent GM. Certainly not in the same class as Cashman, Friedman, Epstein, Beane etc.

 

I’d argue you have it backwards- other than maybe Beane, and with a nod to Friedman’s time in Tampa, those are the competent GMs. Stearns is outstanding because he worked with a fraction of the funds those guys did. All you have to do with a monster payroll and deep pockets to eat huge contracts that don’t work out is be competent.

 

 

Of course, large market GMs have more of a margin of error than small market teams, but to suggest that alone limits them to being competent is baseless. Cashman for example has procured tons of players over the years who played or likely will play for over a decade, while never picking at the top of the draft: Judge, Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Dellin Betances, Luis Severino, David Robertson, Robinson Cano, etc. Same deal with Theo Epstein in Boston and later in a Chicago.

 

The real sign of a GMs gravitas is player procurement and taking it even a step further the folks the GM has in place in those departments with the team.

 

The Bar was set so low with Sal Bando and Dean Taylor that Doug Melvin hitting on a few top 10 picks and waiver claims Looked like genius. With Stearns all credit is due to a guy who is able to trade for a player who promptly goes out and wins an mvp. He’s put some winners on the field, which as a fan is great, but he hasn’t kept up the talent procurement leaving the organization light on talent. Again, I’m not criticizing the job he’s don’t but he hasn’t yet demonstrated he is amongst the elite tier in the game

[JohnBriggs12]

Zach Davies is now 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and a Whip under .9. Grisham might not be a budding star, but he's a solid middle of the order bat and would have been cheap for several more years. That trade looks awful especially if you add in what they had to pay to sign Garcia to replace Grisham. The Lindblom experiment looks like a complete bust. He's the same pitcher he was in his previous major league stints.

 

I'm afraid the Brewers have become the Angels.

 

Stearns has fallen into the same trap Melvin did over and over again. Create a bunch of holes elsewhere to correct one. Oh yeah and the spot that needed fixing, offense at SS seems to have fixed itself with improvement from Arcia.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Zach Davies is now 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and a Whip under .9. Grisham might not be a budding star, but he's a solid middle of the order bat and would have been cheap for several more years. That trade looks awful especially if you add in what they had to pay to sign Garcia to replace Grisham. The Lindblom experiment looks like a complete bust. He's the same pitcher he was in his previous major league stints.

 

That deal was 100% made with Urias's upside in mind, and to call the deal awful after 33 games played during a pandemic is short-sighted at absolute best.

[PeaveyFury]

The team is best known for ineptitude and therefore “competence” often gets mistook for “mastery”. Stearns, like Melvin before him, is a competent GM. Certainly not in the same class as Cashman, Friedman, Epstein, Beane etc.

 

I’d argue you have it backwards- other than maybe Beane, and with a nod to Friedman’s time in Tampa, those are the competent GMs. Stearns is outstanding because he worked with a fraction of the funds those guys did. All you have to do with a monster payroll and deep pockets to eat huge contracts that don’t work out is be competent.

 

 

Of course, large market GMs have more of a margin of error than small market teams, but to suggest that alone limits them to being competent is baseless.

 

No, it's the generally poor job they did overall as far as actual results and the high amount of whiffs each of them were responsible for that suggest that. I firmly believe that a guy like Epstein is just a guy if he doesn't have the deep pockets of the Boston and Chicago markets behind him. Yep, he used the deep pockets of his owner and bought Chicago the singular World Series title the fans were so desperate to have, while bungling away a more sustained ability to compete. Making them the 'fart in the wind' that Ron Wolf so eloquently referred to 'one-and-done' teams as. And for the monstrous payroll that Friedman has had in LA, coupled with massive free agent signings and a good farm system, by my count he has as many World Series rings as Stearns does.

 

Winning in Milwaukee is hard. There's a huge, natural disadvantage. Melvin was able to overcome that to a degree, and Stearns has proven the ability to elevate that to a much higher new level.

 

To answer the question in the topic title, if anything, the attitude of the fan base this year has caused me to lose more confidence in their ability to accurately identify the qualify of what we have and who we have in control vs. any sort of assessment of the front office's abilities....