Has anyone lost confidence in Stearns

[SRB]

I have not lost confidence in Stearns, but I am losing confidence.

 

I'm not a fan of many moves he made this offseason:

 

1. I don't think I can take another Sogard AB.

 

2. Holt stinks.

 

3. Smoak stinks.

 

4. I'm not a Garcia fan.

 

5. Narvaez stinks.

 

6. Gyorko stinks.

 

I think in the end a Hader trade is inevitable.

 

Might also have to trade Woodruff to bring in the influx of talent needed to avoiding signing more journey bums like Sogard and Holt.

 

This may be a rare instance where being a fantasy baseball player would actually give you more insight into actual baseball, because as any fantasy player can tell you this is a weird flukey season and seemingly half the hitters in the league have been garbage. Probably many reasons for that, including the lack of normal spring training. Long story short, saying any of the new Brewers signings "stink" at this point is preposterous.

[Underachiever]

I have not lost confidence in Stearns, but I am losing confidence.

 

I'm not a fan of many moves he made this offseason:

 

1. I don't think I can take another Sogard AB.

 

2. Holt stinks.

 

3. Smoak stinks.

 

4. I'm not a Garcia fan.

 

5. Narvaez stinks.

 

6. Gyorko stinks.

 

I think in the end a Hader trade is inevitable.

 

Might also have to trade Woodruff to bring in the influx of talent needed to avoiding signing more journey bums like Sogard and Holt.

 

This may be a rare instance where being a fantasy baseball player would actually give you more insight into actual baseball, because as any fantasy player can tell you this is a weird flukey season and seemingly half the hitters in the league have been garbage. Probably many reasons for that, including the lack of normal spring training. Long story short, saying any of the new Brewers signings "stink" at this point is preposterous.

I've stayed out of this till now, but can I say that Holt stinks? Please?

[CheeseheadInQC]

The thing that I don't get is why fans think our farm system is anything other than terrible. The rest of the baseball universe has been saying that our system is the worst or close to it in the game yet homer fans are saying that it is good. I would like to believe that we have some impact talent in the system but I just don't see it.

 

Basically the Brewers are a top-15 overall type prospect and maybe a guy in the back end of the top 10 of an average organization from being an average system. I'm not downplaying the importance of that. A top-15 prospect would be great to have. But an organization is much more than its top prospect. It might be below average right now, but there is a big difference between below average and a black hole from which no talent can emerge.

 

Speaking of top prospects, you are calling for a restructuring of the scouting department, but as was touched on in the other thread, because of where they have been drafting almost all of the top prospects who could pull those rankings up were off the board already during the drafts in the present scouting director's tenure.

 

You are also going to get to the point with the rankings, as some of the guys who had been in the upper levels of the minors graduate this year, where an ever-increasing amount of the rankings will be based on the list-makers' predraft evaluations rather than any evidence from the prospects' time in the system, which will make them increasingly unreliable. I expect the Brewers to get a bit of a bump because their 2020 draft was well regarded in this way, balancing out the fact their 2019 draft wasn't.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I haven’t lost confidence in him, but I never thought he was the almighty great young GM that most fans were propping him up to be. It’s simply too soon in his career to know how well he will fare in the end. He did a great job for 2018, but a lot of that was thanks to what he started with. 2019 was a good step back and then this year looks like falling of a cliff decline (so far).

 

That being said I’m not giving him a mulligan just because it is 60 games. He constructed this roster...60 games or 162 games a garbage roster is garbage. The roster is lame and a funky way to build a team. So far it has been pathetic.

 

The one thing that I really don't get is this idea that this roster is better suited for a 162 game season. This depth that we keep hearing about is just not there. This is a bad roster whether the season has 60 or 600 games.

 

Team may not be very good, I don't know. What I do know is that I've heard this for parts of the last two years too. The idea that we really know what this would have been over 162 is just not realistic. We're short 102 games and it's fair to judge them on the 60 they play, but lots of weird stuff transpired to get this team to win as many games as they did the last three years. A lot of it came from random guys.

[TURBO]

DS 2020 strategy:

 

Throw a bunch (and I mean a bunch as in, A LOT of new guys to the roster) of below average, cheap and semi cheap, guys together on one team, hope against all hope that they all have some kind of miraculous career year at the same time.

 

That is what it feels like happened. Penny pinching wing and a prayer type signings do not get you wins... Especially this many in one off season.

 

Thankfully, the majority of them are one year deals. If we sign all these guys back for next year, I will be severely worried that DS has lost his marbles. I'm hoping we let the one year deal guys go elsewhere, and go back to the drawing board, with a little more cash on hand this time.

[homer]

I think some people are forgetting that Urias was a top 20 prospect as of Jan. 2019.

[MrTPlush]

This really comes down to not developing hitters. A lot of the 2018 success was guys who ended up not panning out as long term pieces (Shaw/Aguilar). Then last year we got some nice hitters that we simply didn’t want to invest long term contracts in Grandal/Moustakas. I can’t blame him for not giving them large contracts, but when that is added with Aguilar/Shaw not panning out we were left with a horrid situation. If we can’t developer hitters and don’t want to invest in contracts then we aren’t going to be well set for success.

 

Stearns has been here a long enough time where the farm system is going to really start resting on his shoulders when it comes to the lack of development to the current roster.

 

Even a huge portion of the current rosters success is due to things before him. Woodruff/Houser/Hader were all here prior to him. Yelich was acquired on a prospect haul he was lucky to be left with. Props to him making that trade, but good thing he took over a nice farm system to do it. The roster is getting to the point where from rookie ball up it is kind of Stearn’s baby in general...and to be honest it’s not something to be overly excited about.

 

The true test for Stearns is the next 3-5 years when he doesn’t have much to blame but himself and the organization he built. Not many scraps from the last front office will be hanging around at that point. It’s been a nice short tenure, but this is where he proves whether he is a truly great GM or not

[Eye Black]

I am sure some of you saw this, but one of the better synopses of the Brewers current organizational strategy was written yesterday by Baseball Prospectus writer J.P. Breen on Twitter. J.P. Has been complimentary of Brewerfan.net in the past, so I am hopeful he’d be okay with this being added to the discussion here. I think he’s spot on with a lot his analysis:

 

If Brewers don't turn the ship around this summer, it's important to recognize that it's not an organizational failure. At least, not in the sense that they got it "wrong." They did exactly what they set out to do, and got what they thought they were getting. Let me explain:

 

The Brewers needed an absolute stud around which they could build the franchise. That's Christian Yelich. Previously, he was a cheap and predictable monster. Now, he's a predictable monster whose cost is locked in.

 

The Brewers always have needed a young, cost-controlled core around which to build the rest of their roster. That hasn't changed. That's Hiura, Woodruff, Hader, Houser, Burnes, and Peralta. Maybe they thought Urías and Narváez would be part of that ... and maybe they will.

 

All of that is the competitive core. Around that, Brewers wanted low-cost, high-variance veterans who have shown ability to be productive. They sought to combat the high-variance part w/ numbers. Throw a ton of one- or two-year (max) deals at a ton of one- or two-win players.

 

The key is that those low-cost, high-variance veterans (Gyorko, Smoak, Morrison, Anderson, Phelps, Holt, Sogard, etc.) are fungible—meaning, they can simply be discarded once the season is over without serious financial ramifications.

 

Brewers have bet on the fact that *all* of those one-year contracts can't possibly be bad at the same time if you get enough of them. The group has shown enough big-league competence to bet that a few will hit. And, to be fair, that's largely proven true in recent years.

 

The problem, tho, is that depth-over-quality roster construction is meant to pay off over 162 games, not 60. Moreover, that depth-over-quality roster construction relies on the core being excellent, which hasn't really happened in 2020 ... which can happen in 20-game stints.

 

But this faceplant of a season, if it turns out to be that kind of season, was always possible. Brewers just figured that the probability was low. Over 162 games, maybe they'd be right. The 60-game sprint is just hyperinflating the high-variance part of the equation.

 

Brewers' org philosophy makes room for the occasional clunker, where a year's crop of low-cost, high-variance players just don't click for whatever reason. The point of the strategy is to keep one bad offseason from necessarily turning into several bad offseasons.

 

In other words, Brewers figure that if they cook a pot of pasta, strain it, and throw all of it against a wall, enough pieces will stick to make it worthwhile. If it doesn't, tho, throw away that pasta and start cooking another pot for 2021. Chances are that pot will stick.

[rickh150]

Stearns traded for Yelich, got us to the playoffs earlier than expected, and did it back to back years. He has a load of credit earned. Also, if there ever was a "just get in" year of the playoffs, this is it. No crowds (so far), little homefield advantage, no byes.... playing .500 ball will probably get the team their 3rd consecutive playoff appearance.

 

That being said, how anyone downplays the numerous ranking systems that has our beloved team's minors bottom fifth of the league is beyond me. The minors are a definite work in progress with nothing in the wings with big time talent... at least not seen in 2019.

[Oxy]

Good post Eye Black/Breen.

 

The only truly BAD thing a GM can do is make terrible long term FA signings and trade away prospects who turn into all-stars.

 

Evaluate Stearns on his signings of Cain, Yelich and Garcia, and his trading away of Dubon, Grisham, Harrison, Diaz, Brinson and Yamomoto (Although getting Yelich is a move that quite obviously is a HUGE win for Stearns in a way that should cover many, many of his misfires)

 

GMs can also to GOOD things by finding diamonds in the rough. Stearns has almost done this but not quite with guys like Shaw, Aguilar, Thames and the host of short term guys we've cycled through the last few years (Pomeranz, Jordan Lyles, Moose, Grandal)

 

Signing low risk veterans on short contracts to fill out the roster (Smoak, Sogard, Holt, Gyorko, Lindblom, Phelps) is just something that had to happen but shouldn't really be judged one way or the other. They are inconsequential moves as far as the "direction of the franchise" is concerned.

[sveumrules]

Stearns traded for Yelich, got us to the playoffs earlier than expected, and did it back to back years. He has a load of credit earned. Also, if there ever was a "just get in" year of the playoffs, this is it. No crowds (so far), little homefield advantage, no byes.... playing .500 ball will probably get the team their 3rd consecutive playoff appearance.

 

That being said, how anyone downplays the numerous ranking systems that has our beloved team's minors bottom fifth of the league is beyond me. The minors are a definite work in progress with nothing in the wings with big time talent... at least not seen in 2019.

 

I would love to have a loaded farm system, but opportunity to acquire minor league talent is not distributed equally. The state of our farm is almost entirely due to how quickly Stearns & company turned this team into a contender.

 

Before 2016 John Sickels had the Crew with the 5th best farm system in all of MLB. Our top four prospects on the list were Orlando Arcia, Jorge Lopez, Brett Phillips & Jacob Nottingham before you got to Hader in 5th. (Zach Davies & Adrian Houser were #14/#15).

 

Before 2017 Sickels had the Crew with the 7th best farm system, still pretty good. Hader was #2 this time, with Brinson (#1), Corey Ray (#3), Isan Diaz (#4), Mauricio Dubon (#5) & Luis Ortiz (#6) all ahead of Brandon Woodruff (#7) & Freddy Peralta (C+ grade, not ranked).

 

Stearns & company have pretty much held on to all the right guys (who were mostly ranked lower by the experts) while trading the higher ranked guys who propped up the system's value (& have mostly been duds so far).

[trwi7]

I have not lost confidence in Stearns, but I am losing confidence.

 

I'm not a fan of many moves he made this offseason:

 

1. I don't think I can take another Sogard AB.

 

2. Holt stinks.

 

3. Smoak stinks.

 

4. I'm not a Garcia fan.

 

5. Narvaez stinks.

 

6. Gyorko stinks.

 

I think in the end a Hader trade is inevitable.

 

Might also have to trade Woodruff to bring in the influx of talent needed to avoiding signing more journey bums like Sogard and Holt.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4. I'm not a Garcia fan.

 

The Brewers are. I doubt they care what you think.

 

5. Narvaez stinks.

 

He's got 1,000 MLB at-bats saying he doesn't, but yeah, let's call it based on 18 games in a brand new league (to him), while trying to learn a new staff, during the weirdest season in MLB history.

[Oxy]

MLB.com has a front page article about 7 under-the-radar acquisitions that have made a big difference for their teams this year. Jesus Aguilar and Trent Grisham are among the 7. Considering the sheer number of under-the-radar moves that Stearns made last offseason he should get a couple hits eventually but so far he's pretty much come up Ofer. I don't think the season will end that way, but the first 3 weeks haven't been good to say the least.

[pacopete4]

Grisham had a hot start no doubt. But he hasn’t been good at all in his last 25 PA’s and he he has just been okay in his last 50 PA’s. It’ll be interesting to continue to see where he shakes out. I haven’t lost any sleep over moving him, I know that.

[Pugger]

No. I put little stock into anything that happens this year.

 

this

[Pugger]

I think Urias is gonna be really good. It hurts to see Davies doing so well but you gotta give to get...

 

There’s been a weird shift in culture with the Brewers. Aguillar, Villar, Santana, Perez all gone and replaced by players like Smoak, Healey, Gamel, & Holt. The really fun Latin American culture in the dugout replaced by guys who maybe remind Counsell of himself. Really, really boring so far. Not a ton of energy. Feels like a team without an identity.

 

I’ve always been a Hiura fan. Like I said I think Urias will be good. Yelich is a superstar.

 

But, yeah... it’s been a weird change.

 

I think at least some of that is the lack of fans in the stadiums and then obviously when you're not hitting well, you're not really having a lot of fun. Aguilar's energy was negligible last year when he wasn't producing.

 

I do agree with the premise though. LA players TEND to play with a little more flair, to be more outgoing. I loved watching Gomez play the game...yet he was pretty well hated by many teams around the league for his "antics."

 

I think we need to see how the rest of the season plays out as I think there is still a lot of personality on this team.

 

Of course it's not just the Latin American players...Lo Cain opting out hurt us a lot in this area as well. But if they can get on a roll, I think we'll start seeing them having more fun in the dugout as we have in the past few seasons.

 

I too think Cain opting out has hurt this team more than we realize. From what I can gather he is major leader in the clubhouse and that leadership is missing.

[Pugger]

I have not lost confidence in Stearns, but I am losing confidence.

 

I'm not a fan of many moves he made this offseason:

 

1. I don't think I can take another Sogard AB.

 

2. Holt stinks.

 

3. Smoak stinks.

 

4. I'm not a Garcia fan.

 

5. Narvaez stinks.

 

6. Gyorko stinks.

 

I think in the end a Hader trade is inevitable.

 

Might also have to trade Woodruff to bring in the influx of talent needed to avoiding signing more journey bums like Sogard and Holt.

 

What don't you like about Garcia? Why would you trade your only really decent starter?

[TURBO]

If Stearns is working under a certain budget (which I'm sure he is), then I have lost confidence in Attanasio to be honest...

 

I think Stearns made some horrible decisions this past off season, that almost can't be denied, but if he isn't allowed to spend any money, then his resources are limited, and I'll give him a pass this one time. Hopefully he learns from he mistakes he made.

[TURBO]

MLB.com has a front page article about 7 under-the-radar acquisitions that have made a big difference for their teams this year. Jesus Aguilar and Trent Grisham are among the 7. Considering the sheer number of under-the-radar moves that Stearns made last offseason he should get a couple hits eventually but so far he's pretty much come up Ofer. I don't think the season will end that way, but the first 3 weeks haven't been good to say the least.

 

agreed

 

The problem with Jesus Aguilar is that he was toast when he was here. Just added nothing, looked lost, as if he forgot how to play baseball all together. Happens to a lot of players, change of scenery for whatever reason and they find it again.

 

Would I love to have him back doing what he is doing this year? Absolutley, but letting him go was the right move at the time.

[pacopete4]

If Stearns is working under a certain budget (which I'm sure he is), then I have lost confidence in Attanasio to be honest...

 

I think Stearns made some horrible decisions this past off season, that almost can't be denied, but if he isn't allowed to spend any money, then his resources are limited, and I'll give him a pass this one time. Hopefully he learns from he mistakes he made.

 

Name the decisions that can’t be denied please.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If someone thinks Narvaez "stinks" based on 35 at bats, and ignores that he's never had an OBP below .350 in four previous seasons, then that's just a knee jerk reaction.

 

These guys got yanked out of spring training, got a couple weeks of glorified batting practice off of their own pitchers, and are now playing a weird season that probably shouldn't even count. We can argue all day that this roster construction was wacky to begin with, but guys are going to struggle, under the circumstances.

[PeaveyFury]

I’m assuming that if the Brewers win today and take 3 of 4 vs. the Cubs, all confidence will be restored? /blue?

[igor67]

Amplifying the comments in the JP Breen article, even if the year ends up being a dud for the Brewers I would say it actually enhances the value in not spending big in the offseason. With any long term free agent contract the first couple of years are the most important as they are the ones were you are most likely to still get the performance you are paying for. That isn't exactly happening for anyone this year. I've been here for the entire Brewerfan era and in the hardest sport to even make the playoffs the Brewers have done very well under Stearns in getting there and still are what 1/2 game out a playoff spot right now? Back to 2001 I'm pretty sure most of us would have a happily signed up for the number of playoff appearances we've gotten in the Melvin and Stearns era.

[balsamlaker]

Like I mentioned a few days ago, Haines may be the one I lose confidence in first (I hope the offense turns things around and this isn't the case). I don't see them making a change as I think they hired a minor league coordinator connected with Haines from his Miami days. It won't look good on Haines if Aguilar, Shaw, etc. have bounceback years this year. Cain and Perez dipped last year in Haines' first year, also. It is interesting what the Marlins did hiring Rowson from the Twins to serve as bench coach / offensive coordinator.