2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Eye Black]

Reds now hold the playoff tiebreaker over the Brewers.

 

Looks like the Brewers are going to have to go 3-2 against the Cardinals to have a decent shot at a playoff spot (which would get them to 30-30). In that case the Brewers would have the tiebreaker over the Cardinals who would be 29-29 (assuming they lose tonight). In this scenario the Brewers might have to sit through the Cardinals double header on Monday to find out if they’ll indeed make it. The Cardinals would have to sweep the Tigers to jump past the Brewers in this situation.

 

The Brewers could of course qualify regardless at 30-30 if the Giants and either Phillies or Marlins falter over the last weekend.

[Brewermania101]

In that scenario. One would have to wonder how motivated the Tigers players would be to win either game looking forward to an off season with no incentive for them to play since I’m sure they want to see their families and not thinking of meaningless makeup games for them. Might as well say the Brewers would have to go 4-1 instead of 3-2

[Eye Black]

The outcome of tonight’s Giants-Rockies game (currently 1-1 in the 5th inning) will have a pretty big impact on where the Brewers playoff odds stand at the end of the evening.

 

Edit: Mauricio Dubon just hit a 3-run HR off a Rockies reliever that had only given up one HR all season. Giants now up 5-2.

[adambr2]

The outcome of tonight’s Giants-Rockies game (currently 1-1 in the 5th inning) will have a pretty big impact on where the Brewers playoff odds stand at the end of the evening.

 

Edit: Mauricio Dubon just hit a 3-run HR off a Rockies reliever that had only given up one HR all season. Giants now up 5-2.

 

Of course it would be Dubon.

[Eye Black]

With four days left it’s a six team race for four spots.

 

Reminder that the NL East second place team (either the Marlins or Phillies) is guaranteed a spot.

 

Below are the updated records and remaining opponents (# of games).

 

Reds (29-28)

Opponents: Twins (3)

 

Giants (28-27)

Opponents: Rockies (1), Padres (4)

 

Cardinals (27-26)

Opponents: Brewers (5), Tigers (0 to 2 games depending on need)

 

Marlins (28-28)

Opponents: Braves (1), Yankees (3)

 

Phillies (28-29)

Opponents: Rays (3)

 

Brewers (27-28)

Opponents: Cardinals (5)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

With four days left it’s a six team race for four spots.

 

Reminder that the NL East second place team (either the Marlins or Phillies) is guaranteed a spot.

 

Below are the updated records and remaining opponents (# of games).

 

Reds (29-28)

Opponents: Twins (3)

 

Giants (28-27)

Opponents: Rockies (1), Padres (4)

 

Cardinals (27-26)

Opponents: Brewers (5), Tigers (0 to 2 games depending on need)

 

Marlins (28-28)

Opponents: Braves (1), Yankees (3)

 

Phillies (28-29)

Opponents: Rays (3)

 

Brewers (27-28)

Opponents: Cardinals (5)

 

Fortunately for the Brewers, every other team they are fighting has a tough matchup this weekend against a very good team that is arguably better than they are. The Reds' top 3 pitchers did a solid job shutting down the Brewers lineup, but it's a whole other story trying to shut down the Twins thumpers. The Twins are also in a major battle in the AL Central against the White Sox, who face the scuffling Cubs. Marlins and Phillies will have their hands full with the Yankees and Rays. Giants face a terrific Padres team. When you really look at it, the Brewers have may have the best matchup against a mediocre and worn out Cardinals club.

[Outlander]

For the Brewers the playoffs start with this five game series against the Cardinals. If they win the series they should be in but if they don't they go home.

[JohnBriggs12]

For the Brewers the playoffs start with this five game series against the Cardinals. If they win the series they should be in but if they don't they go home.

 

Pretty much. There are scenarios where they could win 2 and still get in or win 3 and still not get in but in both cases they are pretty remote.

[bm1090]

So....Chi Chi Gonzalez is very bad.

[markedman5]

Rockies beat the Giants.

[Eye Black]

The margin for error has now shrunk to nonexistent. To have a chance to get in the playoffs the Brewers will have to win their final two games.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The margin for error has now shrunk to nonexistent. To have a chance to get in the playoffs the Brewers will have to win their final two games.

 

I agree with this completely, and maybe I'm off on the tiebreakers, but it's division record, right? I've got the Phillies as 21-19, the Brewers as 18-20, and the Giants as 18-19.

 

Assuming the Phillies go 0-2, the Giants go 0-3 (counting IP game in SD), and the Brewers go 1-1, that would give the Crew the 8 spot by virtue of beating SF in the tiebreaker.

 

That may not be a possibility for much longer, of course. But could still go 1-1 and get in if everything goes right.

[bm1090]

The margin for error has now shrunk to nonexistent. To have a chance to get in the playoffs the Brewers will have to win their final two games.

 

I agree with this completely, and maybe I'm off on the tiebreakers, but it's division record, right? I've got the Phillies as 21-19, the Brewers as 18-20, and the Giants as 18-19.

 

Assuming the Phillies go 0-2, the Giants go 0-3 (counting IP game in SD), and the Brewers go 1-1, that would give the Crew the 8 spot by virtue of beating SF in the tiebreaker.

 

That may not be a possibility for much longer, of course. But could still go 1-1 and get in if everything goes right.

 

Believe this is correct. We also can pass STL if we win the last two. Brewers will be 30-30 while STL is 29-29. We'd have the tiebreaker because of a 6-4 H2H record. Cardinals would need to sweep their Monday doubleheader to pass us again.

 

A few paths in still but really need SD to hold off SF tonight.

[BruisedCrew]

Giants just went up 5-3 on Padres with 3 run HR off Pomerantz.

 

Brewers path to playoffs is getting down to win the last two and hope for help.

[Eye Black]

The margin for error has now shrunk to nonexistent. To have a chance to get in the playoffs the Brewers will have to win their final two games.

 

I agree with this completely, and maybe I'm off on the tiebreakers, but it's division record, right? I've got the Phillies as 21-19, the Brewers as 18-20, and the Giants as 18-19.

 

Assuming the Phillies go 0-2, the Giants go 0-3 (counting IP game in SD), and the Brewers go 1-1, that would give the Crew the 8 spot by virtue of beating SF in the tiebreaker.

 

That may not be a possibility for much longer, of course. But could still go 1-1 and get in if everything goes right.

Yes, you have that correct, but the Giants surging ahead late in this game against the Padres will obviously negate that scenario if the score holds.

[trwi7]

Grisham provided more value to the Brewers in his last at bat than Urias and Lauer have all year.

[bm1090]

Grisham keeps the dream of 29-31 and a playoff berth alive.

[MrTPlush]

Well I think if we go 2-0 (I doubt it) we still have a solid chance. The only way we would automatically be out in that scenario is if the Giants/Phillies both go 2-0 also. Giants would simply have a better record and the Phillies would have a better inter division record to win the tie. Though I think the STL double header would be needed to decide if the Phillies or Cards made it.

 

We could still get in and know that end of Sunday. A Giants 1-1/0-2 coupled with a Phillies 1-1/0-2. We would win the Giants tiebreaker and Phillies would simply have a worse record. Likely the Cardinals would still be stuck playing the double header to potentially get knocked out in favor of Philly/Giants. However, for us it wouldn’t mean a lot other than #7/#8 seed difference.

 

Of course that’s my understanding at the moment.

[Eye Black]

Well it’s down to 4 teams fighting for the 2 remaining wild card playoff spots:

 

Cardinals (29-27)

 

Giants (29-29)

 

Phillies (28-30) - Own tiebreaker over Brewers and Giants if teams were to finish tied in standings

 

Brewers (28-30) - Own tiebreaker over Giants if teams were to finish tied in standings

 

As noted earlier the only way for the Brewers to get in if they split these final two games and finish 29-31 is if both the Giants and Phillies finish 0-2 over their last two games. In that scenario the Cardinals would also be in the playoffs and the Giants and Phillies would be out.

 

If the Brewers win both of these final two games they would be in on Sunday if the Giants and Phillies both went 1-1 or worse to finish the season. If either of those teams also finishes 2-0 then the Brewers would have to await the results of the Cardinals double header on Monday to find out if they would be in (the Cardinals would have to win both of those games versus the Tigers to get in over the Brewers).

 

If both the Giants and the Phillies finished the season going 2-0 today and tomorrow then the Brewers would be knocked out of the playoffs regardless of whether they win both of their games.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Posting quick and dirty scenarios here:

 

1) if the Brewers lose tomorrow, Cards are in as WC1. Brewers would need 2 Giants losses and 1 Phillies loss to get in as WC2.

 

2) If the Brewers win, they are in with 1 Giants loss. As WC1.

 

3) If the Brewers win and Giants go 2-0, Cards play a DH in Detroit Monday and would need to go 2-0 to knock Brewers out of playoffs.

 

4) Brewers win, SF goes 2-0, and MLB decides 58 is enough games for the Cardinals and gives the Brewers the WC spot by virtue of H2H record .

[stalton]

Posting quick and dirty scenarios here:

 

1) if the Brewers lose tomorrow, Cards are in as WC1. Brewers would need 2 Giants losses and 1 Phillies loss to get in as WC2.

 

2) If the Brewers win, they are in with 1 Giants loss. As WC1.

 

3) If the Brewers win and Giants go 2-0, Cards play a DH in Detroit Monday and would need to go 2-0 to knock Brewers out of playoffs.

 

4) Brewers win, SF goes 2-0, and MLB decides 58 is enough games for the Cardinals and gives the Brewers the WC spot by virtue of H2H record .

 

So if the Giants lost tonight, we win tomorrow and are definitely in. Giants down 3 in the 5th

[Eye Black]

2) If the Brewers win, they are in with 1 Giants loss. As WC1.

If the Brewers and Giants both finish 30-30 and the Cardinals are at 29-29 wouldn’t the Cardinals still have to go to Detroit to win at least one game in order to make the playoffs over the Giants and win two games in order to finish ahead of the Brewers for WC1 (in which case the Brewers would be WC2)?

[markedman5]

2) If the Brewers win, they are in with 1 Giants loss. As WC1.

If the Brewers and Giants both finish 30-30 and the Cardinals are at 29-29 wouldn’t the Cardinals still have to go to Detroit to win at least one game in order to make the playoffs over the Giants and win two games in order to finish ahead of the Brewers for WC1 (in which case the Brewers would be WC2)?

 

If Cards win the first game and don’t have to play the second because they’ve clinched a spot they would have a better winning percentage then Brewers so would be wc1.

[pacopete4]

The Cards should be forced to go play their 60 games like everyone else has.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

2) If the Brewers win, they are in with 1 Giants loss. As WC1.

If the Brewers and Giants both finish 30-30 and the Cardinals are at 29-29 wouldn’t the Cardinals still have to go to Detroit to win at least one game in order to make the playoffs over the Giants and win two games in order to finish ahead of the Brewers for WC1 (in which case the Brewers would be WC2)?

 

Yes, you're right. Thought about this afterward. My mistake.

 

It's a weird situation with the DH on Monday. I'm sure the Cards would prefer to pass. I hope if they play one, they play both. That seems fair. They've already traveled at that point anyway.