2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[sveumrules]

2019 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 28.7%

2020 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 39.7%

[sveumrules]

2019 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 28.7%

2020 FanGraphs playoff odds with 14 games to play = 39.7%

[Eye Black]

To this point I haven’t allowed myself to believe the Marlins were actually going got make the playoffs, but with a week and a half left in the season here we are.

 

Marlins fun fact: They have never lost a playoff series in their franchise history (6-0 all-time in playoff series including obviously two world championships).

[Eye Black]

Feels like it’s a race to .500 for teams competing for the last couple NL Wild Card spots. Below is a look at the NL playoff picture and remaining opponents.

 

NL Playoff Locks:

Dodgers

Cubs

Braves

Padres

 

That leaves 4 more playoff spots, two of which will go to the second place team in the NL East and NL Central. Here is every other NL team with a chance and their opponents over the final 11 days of the season. For the wild card contenders I have listed the record they need to finish with to get to .500.

 

Marlins (25-22) - Record needed to finish .500 is 5-8

Opponents: Red Sox (1), Nationals (5), Braves (4), Yankees (3)

 

Phillies (24-24) - Record needed to finish .500 is 6-6

Opponents: Mets (1), Blue Jays (4), Nationals (4), Rays (3)

 

Giants (24-24) - Record needed to finish .500 is 6-5 or 6-6 (Giants have 11 remaining games scheduled, so slated to play only 59 games, but it seems likely MLB will add another game versus the Padres to their schedule on the last weekend of the season if it has playoff implications)

Opponents: Mariners (1), A’s (3), Rockies (4), Padres (3 or 4)

 

Reds (25-26) - Record needed to finish .500 is 5-4

Opponents: White Sox (3), Brewers (3), Twins (3)

 

Cardinals (22-23) - Record needed to finish .500 is 7-6 (Cardinals have 13 games remaining, so slated to play 58 games)

Opponents: Pirates (5), Royals (3), Brewers (5)




Brewers (23-26) - Record needed to finish .500 is 7-4

Opponents: Royals (3), Reds (3), Cardinals (5)

 

Rockies (22-26) - Record needed to finish .500 is 8-4

Opponents: Dodgers (4), Giants (4), Dbacks (4)

 

Mets (22-27) - Record needed to finish .500 is 8-3

Opponents: Phillies (1), Braves (3), Rays (3), Nationals (4)

[Eye Black]

It was a good night as far as the Brewers playoff hopes are concerned. Of the eight teams outlined above that are jockeying for the last four playoff spots the following teams won and lost...

 

Won

Giants (25-24)

Mets (23-27)

 

Lost

Marlins (25-23)

Phillies (24-25)

Cardinals (22-24)

Rockies (22-27)

 

Brewers remain one game behind the Reds for 2nd place in the NL Central, but now are also only one game back of the Phillies for the 8th playoff spot.

[wibadgers23]

Big day for the Brewers as there are doubleheaders all over the place that will really have an impact on the standings by the end of the night. Reds have a tough weekend series against the White Sox. Should be a fun weekend IF the Brewers take care of their business against KC.

[bm1090]

The Brewers currently sit in 10th, 1GB STL, CIN, and SF for the 7-9 spots. 1.5 behind Philly for 6th and 2 behind Miami for 5th.

 

Definitely control their own destiny. My bet is 30-30 gets it done. Here's to a 6-4 finish.

[NYChez]

There are six NL teams above .500.

[Eye Black]

Before the game ended last night the Brewers playoff odds according to FanGraphs sat at 39%. This morning those odds are up to 48%.

 

FiveThirtyEight has the Brewers playoff odds at 47%.

[Eye Black]

Updated records and remaining opponents (# of games) for the 8 NL teams jockeying for 4 playoff spots.

 

Marlins (26-24)

Opponents: Nationals (3), Braves (4), Yankees (3)

 

Phillies (26-25)

Opponents: Blue Jays (2), Nationals (4), Rays (3)

 

Giants (25-25)

Opponents: A’s (2), Rockies (4), Padres (4)

 

Reds (26-26)

Opponents: White Sox (2), Brewers (3), Twins (3)

 

Cardinals (24-24)

Opponents: Pirates (2), Royals (3), Brewers (5), Tigers (0 to 2 games depending on need)


 

Brewers (24-26)

Opponents: Royals (2), Reds (3), Cardinals (5)

 

Mets (23-28)

Opponents: Braves (2), Rays (3), Nationals (4)

 

Rockies (22-28)

Opponents: Dodgers (2), Giants (4), Dbacks (4)

[dlk9s]

I have such mixed feelings about this playoff chase. Clearly, I'm rooting for the Brewers, but I REALLY don't want THIS season to be the one where they win the World Series. Not that they will, but if they make the playoffs, there's always a chance. I just can't imagine looking back at this 60-game, opt-out, massive playoff field season with joy and wonder.

[SomewhereInTime]

I have such mixed feelings about this playoff chase. Clearly, I'm rooting for the Brewers, but I REALLY don't want THIS season to be the one where they win the World Series. Not that they will, but if they make the playoffs, there's always a chance. I just can't imagine looking back at this 60-game, opt-out, massive playoff field season with joy and wonder.

 

I mean, which team would you prefer win the world series instead of the Brewers?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have such mixed feelings about this playoff chase. Clearly, I'm rooting for the Brewers, but I REALLY don't want THIS season to be the one where they win the World Series. Not that they will, but if they make the playoffs, there's always a chance. I just can't imagine looking back at this 60-game, opt-out, massive playoff field season with joy and wonder.

 

It will make it all the more cool, though, when they win their 2nd championship in a row next year.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers three game winning streak has resulted in them climbing the playoff odds according to FanGraphs (56%), FiveThirtyEight (52%), and Baseball Reference (54%). They now have better playoff odds than both the Reds and Giants according to those sites.

[dlk9s]

I have such mixed feelings about this playoff chase. Clearly, I'm rooting for the Brewers, but I REALLY don't want THIS season to be the one where they win the World Series. Not that they will, but if they make the playoffs, there's always a chance. I just can't imagine looking back at this 60-game, opt-out, massive playoff field season with joy and wonder.

 

I mean, which team would you prefer win the world series instead of the Brewers?

 

Dodgers. They win their division year after year and own all the best talent, and THIS stupid-ass season is finally the one where they win it all.

[adambr2]

It sounds like they are basically going to invite every team to the dance going forward anyway so if we are ever going to win one now is as good of time as any.

 

I don't think the Dodgers would apologize if they win it all this year and neither should we.

[BruisedCrew]

I have such mixed feelings about this playoff chase. Clearly, I'm rooting for the Brewers, but I REALLY don't want THIS season to be the one where they win the World Series. Not that they will, but if they make the playoffs, there's always a chance. I just can't imagine looking back at this 60-game, opt-out, massive playoff field season with joy and wonder.

 

Why would you worry about that?

 

If the two choices are (1) winning the World Series this year (as unlikely as that is), or (2) never winning the World Series in your lifetime (which in my case is about a 99% probability, which would you take?

 

It’s not as if winning this year would preclude or make it less likely that they could win some other time.

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers three game winning streak has resulted in them climbing the playoff odds according to FanGraphs (56%), FiveThirtyEight (52%), and Baseball Reference (54%). They now have better playoff odds than both the Reds and Giants according to those sites.

 

With respect to those odds I suspect that the Brewers are ahead of the Reds because the Reds play the Twins. But are the Twins going to have much motivation next weekend if their playoff position is locked in.

 

I would pick the Reds as the favorite to get the 2nd spot in the central. They don’t have to play 8 games this week like the Brewers and Cardinals do.

 

It’s looking now like just finishing .500 might not be good enough. It might take 2 of 3 against the Reds and 3 of 5 against the Cardinals.

[markedman5]

Reds have adjusted their rotation

 

We get the studs......Bauer on short rest......

 

[Eye Black]

The Brewers three game winning streak has resulted in them climbing the playoff odds according to FanGraphs (56%), FiveThirtyEight (52%), and Baseball Reference (54%). They now have better playoff odds than both the Reds and Giants according to those sites.

 

With respect to those odds I suspect that the Brewers are ahead of the Reds because the Reds play the Twins. But are the Twins going to have much motivation next weekend if their playoff position is locked in.

 

I would pick the Reds as the favorite to get the 2nd spot in the central. They don’t have to play 9 games this week like the Brewers and Cardinals do.

 

It’s looking now like just finishing .500 might not be good enough. It might take 2 of 3 against the Reds and 3 of 5 against the Cardinals.

The Twins are currently only 0.5 games ahead of the Yankees to host the first round of the playoffs. I hope even if they aren’t in a position to make a run at the AL Central title they would still be able to stay motivated to host the first round of the playoffs at home (versus at Yankee Stadium).

[Eye Black]

Reds have adjusted their rotation

 

We get the studs......Bauer on short rest......

 

It looks tough on paper, but it will be Gray’s first start since coming off the IL with back tightness and Bauer on short rest could be a bit of a wild card (although he seems convinced he’s better on short rest and has said he wants to do if for a full season). The good news is the Reds offense continues to struggle (yes, like the Brewers). I think the Brewers will take at least one, but hopefully they can find a way to take two.

[Underachiever]

The Brewers three game winning streak has resulted in them climbing the playoff odds according to FanGraphs (56%), FiveThirtyEight (52%), and Baseball Reference (54%). They now have better playoff odds than both the Reds and Giants according to those sites.

 

With respect to those odds I suspect that the Brewers are ahead of the Reds because the Reds play the Twins. But are the Twins going to have much motivation next weekend if their playoff position is locked in.

 

I would pick the Reds as the favorite to get the 2nd spot in the central. They don’t have to play 9 games this week like the Brewers and Cardinals do.

 

It’s looking now like just finishing .500 might not be good enough. It might take 2 of 3 against the Reds and 3 of 5 against the Cardinals.

The Twins are currently only 0.5 games ahead of the Yankees to host the first round of the playoffs. I hope even if they aren’t in a position to make a run at the AL Central title they would still be able to stay motivated to host the first round of the playoffs at home (versus at Yankee Stadium).

[Eye Black]

Who is getting a home game in the playoffs?

First round games are at home sites of higher ranked seed. Second round and beyond are at the predetermined neutral sites.

[Eye Black]

With one week to go below are the updated records and remaining opponents (# of games) for the NL teams fighting for the final 4 playoff spots.

 

Marlins (28-25)

Opponents: Braves (4), Yankees (3)

 

Cardinals (26-24)

Opponents: Royals (3), Brewers (5), Tigers (0 to 2 games depending on need)


 

Phillies (27-26)

Opponents: Nationals (4), Rays (3)

 

Reds (27-27)

Opponents: Brewers (3), Twins (3)

 

Brewers (26-26)

Opponents: Reds (3), Cardinals (5)

 

Giants (26-26)

Opponents: Rockies (4), Padres (4)

 

Mets (24-29)

Opponents: Rays (3), Nationals (4)

 

Rockies (23-29)

Opponents: Giants (4), Dbacks (4)

[areacodes]

What is the tie-breaker after head to head? I believe the Reds are currently up 4-3 on the season series - so if we take 2 out of 3 this week we’d be tied on the year.