2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Oxy]

After this 3 game series vs. the Twins the Crew has 11 straight against the Pirates and Reds. An 8-6 record in this stretch would be good and anything less than 6-8 would be bad.

 

Regardless, it will all come down to the last 2 weeks of September. 10 games against the Cardinals (3 doubleheaders) and 3 each against the Reds and Royals. That's 16 games in 14 days. Should be wild.

[Eye Black]

Despite being at just 11-11 on the season, the Brewers currently sit in the #5 playoff spot in the National League. There are many teams in the NL hovering near the .500 mark. As noted elsewhere, after tonight the Brewers will have played 13 of their first 23 games against 1st place teams (Cubs and Twins).

 

[sveumrules]

So what you're saying is, if the playoffs started today none of the defending WS Champ Nationals, the pesky Cardinals or the best lineup/rotation in the Central Reds would be in even an expanded postseason pool?

 

If the Brewers are boring & bad, what does that make those teams?

[PeaveyFury]

I think there's a lot to be encouraged about right now. The offense has been worse than you can possibly have expected them to be, and they're solidly in the playoffs. I can certainly be wrong, but I really think they have the potential to really click as they get onto more of a roll/routine. And the pitching has been very solid thus far.

[KeithStone53151]

So what you're saying is, if the playoffs started today none of the defending WS Champ Nationals, the pesky Cardinals or the best lineup/rotation in the Central Reds would be in even an expanded postseason pool?

 

If the Brewers are boring & bad, what does that make those teams?

 

The Brewers have played better the last week or so.

 

Considering more than half of teams make it...it's more surprising that the Nationals currently are not in...than it is that the Marlins are currently in.

[Zad Fnark]

The schedule should be a bit "nicer" than it has thus far, also.

[stalton]

It's probably going to be a wild last week all around MLB

[wibadgers23]

We get to play Pittsburgh a bunch more times plus Detroit and Kansas City. Even at .500, I like where we're sitting as of today.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

37 games to go.

 

I think the 17 against the Reds and Cards decide whether or not it's a playoff year. We held our own against a tough set of teams while not playing well. That's good. I'd shoot for 10-7 against the Reds/Cards and 11-9 against everyone else. Would put you at 33-27. Should get you playoffs and avoid the Dodgers.

[rickh150]

Brewers still at 62.7% odds to make playoffs...

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[BruisedCrew]

37 games to go.

 

I think the 17 against the Reds and Cards decide whether or not it's a playoff year. We held our own against a tough set of teams while not playing well. That's good. I'd shoot for 10-7 against the Reds/Cards and 11-9 against everyone else. Would put you at 33-27. Should get you playoffs and avoid the Dodgers.

 

I think 33 wins has a 99 plus percent chance of making the playoffs.

 

At the beginning of this “season” there was some talk about 25 wins being good enough, and my opinion was that anything less than .500 would run the risk of being out and that 25 would almost certainly not be good enough.

 

The way things have developed so far, I’m sticking with the opinion that anything less than .500 will be dicey.

 

Did I understand that first round matchups are going to be decided by having the teams with the best records choose their opponents? That could lead to some interesting motivation for the first selected opponent.

[BruisedCrew]

37 games to go.

 

I think the 17 against the Reds and Cards decide whether or not it's a playoff year. We held our own against a tough set of teams while not playing well. That's good. I'd shoot for 10-7 against the Reds/Cards and 11-9 against everyone else. Would put you at 33-27. Should get you playoffs and avoid the Dodgers.

 

I think 33 wins has a 99 plus percent chance of making the playoffs.

 

At the beginning of this “season” there was some talk about 25 wins being good enough, and my opinion was that anything less than .500 would run the risk of being out and that 25 would almost certainly not be good enough.

 

The way things have developed so far, I’m sticking with the opinion that anything less than .500 will be dicey.

 

Did I understand that first round matchups are going to be decided by having the teams with the best records choose their opponents? That could lead to some interesting motivation for the first selected opponent.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I guess I think making the playoffs in the NL is going to be tougher than folks realize. A lot depends on how the NL West shakes out, of course. Those teams are going to be playing each other a lot. But, right now, LA and San Diego look good. Colorado and Arizona are playing pretty well too. The East looks bad, but the Nats and Phils still have strong rosters.

 

Agree that .500 probably gets it done. But I think I'd really focus on trying to be number 2 in the division because I think the West is going to have a third-place team with a good record, and then you've only got one spot left.

[Eye Black]

A couple of things to add here...

 

1) The Brewers have had the 5th toughest strength of schedule in MLB so far according to Baseball Reference’s detailed standings. The only 4 that rate as having played tougher schedules so far are the Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants, and Red Sox. I assume for those first three it has a lot to do with having had to play the Dodgers.

 

2) Heading into today the National League has gone 67-71 overall in Interleague Play (East vs. East, Central vs. Central, West vs. West), but the NL West has actually gone 30-20 in games against the AL West. Obviously playing games within divisions is a zero sum game, but divisions on the whole can pick up extra wins by beating American League teams.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers are 12-15, and currently just 0.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the NL.

[sveumrules]

At the almost not quite halfway mark it looks like ATL, CHI, LAD & SDP have spots pretty much locked up.

 

With how much of a mess the NL East has been so far, MIA might still have a chance (hanging around 22-26% on 538/FanGraphs) so the only team really out of it currently is PIT.

 

That leaves essentially 10 teams for four spots. Should be fun.

 

After tonight's win both 538 & Fangraphs have the Crew at about a 53% chance to make the postseason, 7th highest in the NL, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The Brewers are 12-15, and currently just 0.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the NL.

 

Following the standings has been real odd given the unequal number of games. I'm like envelope calculating winning percentage. But, yeah, I was surprised to see how many teams are still in it. I feel like the Brewers are going to have to run off a 6 of 7, 7 of 8 streak at some point in part because the number of teams just means you lose ground to someone with every loss.

[Eye Black]

I'm like envelope calculating winning percentage.

Use this site, it will save you the headache of doing any calculating: MLB Tankathon

 

The top of the page is projected draft order and the bottom of the page is current playoff standings. The website updates immediately upon completion of each game.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I'm like envelope calculating winning percentage.

Use this site, it will save you the headache of doing any calculating: MLB Tankathon

 

The top of the page is projected draft order and the bottom of the page is current playoff standings. The website updates immediately upon completion of each game.

 

Hey, that's great. Thanks!

[NYChez]

Yankees have lost 7 games in a row.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers, at 15-17, would be the #6 seed in the MLB playoffs if the season ended today. That seems as incredible as an Eric Sogard walk-off home run.

[adambr2]

The Brewers, at 15-17, would be the #6 seed in the MLB playoffs if the season ended today. That seems as incredible as an Eric Sogard walk-off home run.

 

I didn't even realize til today that the #2 team in each division is automatically in. I jusf thought it was division winners and next best 5.

 

Looks like a 3 horse race in the Central.

[sveumrules]

Tiers in the NL at this point pretty much look like this, with 538/FanGraphs playoff odds...

 

Tier 1: LAD (>99%/100%) clear best team in the league

 

Tier 2 : ATL (92%/93%) CHI (91%/94%) SDP (90%/94%) virtual locks

 

Tier 3: PHI (60%/66%) NYM (55%/68%) MIL (58%/58%) STL (56%/49%) CIN (52%/54%) COL (54%/43%) four of these six teams will probably round out the field

 

Tier 4: WAS (29%/18%) MIA (26%/23%) SFG (24%/29%) ARI (12%/12%) gonna take a miracle

 

Tier 5: PIT (1%/0%)

[Eye Black]

The season ends four weeks from today, below are the current playoff matchups.

 

[TURBO]

That is exactly why having 16 teams making the playoffs is just a bad idea...