2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[PeaveyFury]

The Reds have not been an expected contender until this year, that's just flat out not true.

 

My original statement was somewhat hyperbole, but they have legitimately been a team considered 'on the verge of breaking out' for the past few offseasons. There were a lot of people that had them projected as a possible dark-horse playoff team for the 2019 season.

[Jopal78]

The Reds have not been an expected contender until this year, that's just flat out not true.

 

My original statement was somewhat hyperbole, but they have legitimately been a team considered 'on the verge of breaking out' for the past few offseasons. There were a lot of people that had them projected as a possible dark-horse playoff team for the 2019 season.

 

Since Dick Williams took over the Reds in 2016 they had three straight finishes with 90+ losses, and reached a high water mark of 75 wins last year. The moves he has made seem largely like those made by a GM trying to keep his job, than an executive who sees an opportunity to compete and adds the last few missing pieces. Giving credit where it is due for acquiring Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo without giving up important pieces, the misses far outweigh the hits.

 

They acquired Tanner Roark (21 starts in a Reds uni) in exchanve for Tanner Rainey who is now a key setup man for the Nationals.

 

They traded off two top prospects: Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray for a collection of Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig and Kyle Farmer. Alex Wood pitched in 7 games for the Reds and left as a free agent. Kemp was released after 60 at bats.

 

Puig put up a .777 OPS across 100 games for the Reds, they then packaged him with a top 100 prospect Taylor Trammell, and another minor league starting pitcher for Trevor Bauer. They got 10 starts out of Bauer last year and might get another 10 to 12 starts this year before Bauer departs as a free agent.

 

They held on to Scooter Gennett at the deadline in 2018 despite huge numbers and diminishing team control, only to have him suffer an injury and get nothing in return a year later.

 

The inability to develop homegrown players to match with good starting pitching resulted in their signings of Moustakas, Castellanos, and Akiyama.

 

Bottom line it seems to me their GM is trying to put a winner on the field her and now to save a job, rather than a team that is built to compete with the big boys year in and year out.

[brewers888]

It keeps getting mentioned how the Brewers depth is better suited for 162 games vs the 60 they are scheduled for this season. That may be true in regards to the pitching where we seem to have some depth to overcome the lack of top end guys besides Woodruff in the rotation and Hader in the pen.

 

Where is this supposed depth position player wise. We signed a bunch of mediocre guys best case scenario that are mostly playing terribly. I don't think this lineup is nearly good enough no matter how long or short this season is. Personally I think that Stearns had an awful offseason and didn't make one good move. Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension but I just don't see all this supposed depth that we are supposed to have in regards to the position player talent or really lack of that we are watching each night.

[PeaveyFury]

It keeps getting mentioned how the Brewers depth is better suited for 162 games vs the 60 they are scheduled for this season. That may be true in regards to the pitching where we seem to have some depth to overcome the lack of top end guys besides Woodruff in the rotation and Hader in the pen.

 

Where is this supposed depth position player wise. We signed a bunch of mediocre guys best case scenario that are mostly playing terribly. I don't think this lineup is nearly good enough no matter how long or short this season is. Personally I think that Stearns had an awful offseason and didn't make one good move. Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension but I just don't see all this supposed depth that we are supposed to have in regards to the position player talent or really lack of that we are watching each night.

 

I think you're being trapped by the dangers of drawing absolute conclusions based on a small sample size. You can have widespread performances that are above or below expectations, but over the longer-term (i.e., a full season), those usually dissipate and revert to the mean (career averages). The 'mediocre guys' aren't even performing at a 'mediocre' level for the most part, which wouldn't continue over a 162 game season, and there will probably be some reversion to the mean even in a 60-game schedule.

 

Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension

 

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you enjoy the play?

[MrTPlush]

I think the Reds have just been a trending breakout team because baseball is in love with predictive talk like that. I feel most young teams with some promise/big moves automatically get that label.

 

It seems very clear the Brewers went out to the scrap heap, filled up a dump truck, and took it back to play matchups/platoons. This is the exact reason Pina was somehow sitting for Narvaez even though Narvaez has been garbage all year. Pina doesn’t even have that bad of splits either. Gyorko also was sent to the bench hot for match up reasons. All year Counsell has stuck to the platoons no matter how good or bad someone has been. Well, it hasn’t worked very well.

[KeithStone53151]

I think the Reds have just been a trending breakout team because baseball is in love with predictive talk like that. I feel most young teams with some promise/big moves automatically get that label.

 

It seems very clear the Brewers went out to the scrap heap, filled up a dump truck, and took it back to play matchups/platoons. This is the exact reason Pina was somehow sitting for Narvaez even though Narvaez has been garbage all year. Pina doesn’t even have that bad of splits either. Gyorko also was sent to the bench hot for match up reasons. All year Counsell has stuck to the platoons no matter how good or bad someone has been. Well, it hasn’t worked very well.

 

Agreed. At some point, we need to see more Pina and Gyorko against RHP. Gyorko is just a good hitter, and Pina's splits are virtually non-existent. 737 vs RHP and 731 vs LHP career. I'm aware he had some wild splits and hit lefties way better last year, but the 3 years prior he hit RHP better. Overall I view him as a guy that just doesn't have significant splits either way. The platoon we are seeing should be softer and Pina should see more RHP while he's producing well.

[brewers888]

It keeps getting mentioned how the Brewers depth is better suited for 162 games vs the 60 they are scheduled for this season. That may be true in regards to the pitching where we seem to have some depth to overcome the lack of top end guys besides Woodruff in the rotation and Hader in the pen.

 

Where is this supposed depth position player wise. We signed a bunch of mediocre guys best case scenario that are mostly playing terribly. I don't think this lineup is nearly good enough no matter how long or short this season is. Personally I think that Stearns had an awful offseason and didn't make one good move. Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension but I just don't see all this supposed depth that we are supposed to have in regards to the position player talent or really lack of that we are watching each night.

 

I think you're being trapped by the dangers of drawing absolute conclusions based on a small sample size. You can have widespread performances that are above or below expectations, but over the longer-term (i.e., a full season), those usually dissipate and revert to the mean (career averages). The 'mediocre guys' aren't even performing at a 'mediocre' level for the most part, which wouldn't continue over a 162 game season, and there will probably be some reversion to the mean even in a 60-game schedule.

 

Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension

 

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you enjoy the play?

 

Our depth is guys like Sogard, Smoak, Gyorko, Gamel, and Mathias. How is this considered good depth. Any team that is expected to contend can bring guys like this up from the minors.

 

As for Yelich great we have him signed long term but if we are going to surround him with a bunch of journeymen whats the use. I find it hard to believe that anyone would think we had anything other than a terrible offseason.

 

One other thing regarding Yelich; we had him signed for this season and two more so signing him into his late 30s was probably not the smart thing to do as we are seeing with Braun.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

One other thing regarding Yelich; we had him signed for this season and two more so signing him into his late 30s was probably not the smart thing to do as we are seeing with Braun.

 

 

Wow ... just ... wow.

 

Well, I guess there's no pleasing everybody.

[Jopal78]

It keeps getting mentioned how the Brewers depth is better suited for 162 games vs the 60 they are scheduled for this season. That may be true in regards to the pitching where we seem to have some depth to overcome the lack of top end guys besides Woodruff in the rotation and Hader in the pen.

 

Where is this supposed depth position player wise. We signed a bunch of mediocre guys best case scenario that are mostly playing terribly. I don't think this lineup is nearly good enough no matter how long or short this season is. Personally I think that Stearns had an awful offseason and didn't make one good move. Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension but I just don't see all this supposed depth that we are supposed to have in regards to the position player talent or really lack of that we are watching each night.

 

Through 16 games it hasn't really worked out the way I'm sure they had it planned, but take a look back at last year's roster:

 

Cain 562 at bats .325/.372 OPS of .697

Arcia 494 at bats .283/.350 OPS of .633

Gamel 311 at bats .337/.373 OPS of .710

H.P. 232 at bats .262/.379 OPS of .642

Shaw 230 at bats .281/.270 OPS of .551

Spangenberg and Saladino combined for 160 at bats with an OPS of .635

 

Look at the career OPS of the players who were brought in for 2020:

 

Smoak .230/.323/.419 OPS of .742 across 1200 games.

Gyorko .245/.309/.422 OPS of .732 across 800 games

Garcia .272/.323/.427 OPS of .750 across 777 games

Sogard .248/.319/.341 OPS of .660 across 709 games

Holt .270/.339/.370 OPS of .710 across 650 games

Narvaez .273/.360/.405 OPS of .765 across 366 games

 

I'll concede, I don't understand the Sogard-love this organization has (But for a short stretch in 2018 he hasn't hit a lick for the Brewers). However, the plan I think was to even out the peaks and valleys from last year's roster, where a handful of players had great offensive numbers, and the rest were a black hole with the bat.

 

They brought in a handful of players who all have shown some ability with the bat over a significant number of games. Moreover, Smoak is a switch hitter and Gyorko, Sogard and Holt can play all over the infield, and Garcia can play all three spots in the OF. Adding to the versatility Counsel and Stearns like.

 

It seems like a logical plan to me: the offense improves by eliminating the 1300 or so at bats they gave away to players who struggled to put up a .650 OPS. Then count on the anticipated production from a full season of Hiura, a full season of Narvaez and a healthy season from Lorenzo Cain to mostly offset the loss of production from Moustakas and Grandal.

 

So far, it has blown up in their face, but with much better pitching than anyone anticipated they may be able to hang around .500 and sneak into the expanded playoffs, which I would take any day.

[brewers888]

With Yelich being the best offensively player in the league we were an average offense. We needed to improve around him so he doesn't have to carry this team on his back every night. Instead we have downgraded at first base, third base, and catcher. This plan was not a recipe for success.

[sveumrules]

With Yelich being the best offensively player in the league we were an average offense. We needed to improve around him so he doesn't have to carry this team on his back every night. Instead we have downgraded at first base, third base, and catcher. This plan was not a recipe for success.

 

We got the best offensive catcher available besides Yasmani.

 

First base projected essentially equal (Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+ | Smoak 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+).

 

Third base projected as an improvement (Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+ | Gyorko 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ | Holt 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+ | Sogard 2020 ZIPS: 85 OPS+).

 

We also projected as improved at SS (Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+ | Urias 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+) from another of Stearns offseason acquisitions.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep. The theory made a lot of sense, but it obviously hasn't worked out at all through a whopping 16 games. Could it not workout over all 60 (57?)? Sure. But it's far more likely that there's regression to the mean.

 

The off season may end up being a total disaster. But there's no clear indication now that it was true.

 

And to your original question, I really do feel that over 162 games, this offense would have improved overall.

[tmwiese55]

Good posts. i see the logic in what they were doing. Thus far, obviously the results aren't good. But that was also a part of their plan, cheap 1 year or 1 year+option deals. They can basically reset in the offseason if they want. Their only long term financial adds were Yeli and Garcia, which isn't really much.

[MrTPlush]

The Cardinals are expected to have their Friday game postponed after another positive test. They plan to drive to Chicago and hopefully play Saturday.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I feel like if they pop a few more positives the league may realistically just have to say sorry cards, you're out.

[MrTPlush]

I feel like if they pop a few more positives the league may realistically just have to say sorry cards, you're out.

 

Yup, that’s the problem I haven’t seen mentioned. Even when they start playing that’s great, but they would still have a month and a half of baseball to play. Any kind of outbreak, even tiny, would make their entire season a disaster and put in doubt even playing 50 games. They better all just make their own bubble.

 

There has to be some kind of cutoff.

[Oxy]

I feel like if they pop a few more positives the league may realistically just have to say sorry cards, you're out.

 

Yup, that’s the problem I haven’t seen mentioned. Even when they start playing that’s great, but they would still have a month and a half of baseball to play. Any kind of outbreak, even tiny, would make their entire season a disaster and put in doubt even playing 50 games. They better all just make their own bubble.

 

There has to be some kind of cutoff.

 

Or else just play games with the b team that has 0 contact with anybody from the A team positives.

[NYChez]

Cubs will play their main division competitors, the Cardinals and Brewers, 18 times at Wrigley and 3 times away from Wrigley.

[brewcrewdue80]

It keeps getting mentioned how the Brewers depth is better suited for 162 games vs the 60 they are scheduled for this season. That may be true in regards to the pitching where we seem to have some depth to overcome the lack of top end guys besides Woodruff in the rotation and Hader in the pen.

 

Where is this supposed depth position player wise. We signed a bunch of mediocre guys best case scenario that are mostly playing terribly. I don't think this lineup is nearly good enough no matter how long or short this season is. Personally I think that Stearns had an awful offseason and didn't make one good move. Part of that is Attanasio not opening the purse strings other than the Yelich extension but I just don't see all this supposed depth that we are supposed to have in regards to the position player talent or really lack of that we are watching each night.

 

Ok. We'll try this. You're Stearns this offseason. Go:

I hate the hate on an offseason or in your case the minors rankings, when that is all it is. Fill us with knowledge of the names not in the minors or on this roster that Stearns and co failed on. Because all you are doing is complaining with no logical counter what Stearns and co should have done so you wouldnt be complaining.

 

Fix the minors over the past 2 seasons. Followed with fixing this past offseason. Go ahead surprise me with putting in the work. Im really interested in your fix of minors. The team has had 3 straight winning seasons drafting in the 20s.

 

As for the depth of position players...

1. There wasn't a DH in the NL prior to opening day. DH meant playing an additional batter taking away from the platoon roster Stearns built.

2. Cain opted out.

3. Braun is raggedy old and misses to many games.

4. Justin Smoak a switch hitter and on a buy low year removed from b2b 800+OPS seasons is a perfect backup plan for Braun missed games.

5.Urias wasn't an opening day certainty. Arcia was "on watch" regarding his SS job. Sogard I guess was brought in to be depth.

6. The DH exists and so does playing Sogard it seems daily, vs the boot with a healthy Urias/Arcia combo.

7. 3b. Rendon signed elsewhere. Donaldson signed elsewhere. Gyorko signed. Former top 50-75 prospect. (You want a better minors ranking so hows that not translating?) Holt signed. It couldnt be worse than last season? Do think we missed here but thats 1 spot.

8. Catcher. They're poor hitters lower your expectations. Narvaez the last 2 seasons wouldn't be in that class.

9. Of. Yelich MVP. Cain. Garcia/Braun. Gamel. Mathias wasn't supposed to be needed this soon. Yelich not batting MVP thus far. Garcia (former top 80 prospect) positive trend in last three seasons, age 28 when signed(aka primed age stage) seems within a game or 2 from being what you'd expect. Gamel. 4th/5th OF. Not much to say supposed to be option 2 after Cain or last for Yeli, Garcia, Braun. DH/Cain/Braun hes played more than expected.

10. 2b. Hiura. (Top 20 prospect) still playing what would be his 1st ML season of games.

 

So depth. Just not clicking yet. And CC isnt clicking yet with a set type of batting order. Something that with more games played may be figured out. Its not like its a returning lineup from last season.

 

Urias if he'd see more gameplay could become the Leadoff hitter this team needs. Minors over .300BA & .397OB. That's TBD at what typically is the 10% point in to a season.

 

Lighten up on the season expectations and results. September is where this team has been at under Counsell. Give it another 3 weeks.

[sveumrules]

One third of the way through the season our playoff odds are at 69% (4th in NL) per 538 & 64.1% (5th in NL) per FanGraphs.

[homer]

One third of the way through the season our playoff odds are at 69% (4th in NL) per 538 & 64.1% (5th in NL) per FanGraphs.

 

Nice

[Underachiever]

No great thread to put this in, but I think I will watch Zach Davies vs. Jordan Lyles on FS1 tonight. Two guys that really helped the Brewers last year.

[Eye Black]

No great thread to put this in, but I think I will watch Zach Davies vs. Jordan Lyles on FS1 tonight. Two guys that really helped the Brewers last year.

I’ve watched a decent number of Padres games this year (they’ve been my late night go to this season), and they are a fun team to watch. Tatis seems to come up with a big hit every time they need one. Overall, they certainly have a lot to be excited about with a fairly young team that has some legitimate talent.

 

That being said, their fan base has been taking victory laps on the Grisham/Davies acquisitions as well as the Pham/Cronenworth trade (moreso the Cronenworth part of that latter equation). I’ve been taking notes along the way, and if Urías and Lauer ultimately outperform their trade counterparts, I will have enough material to start a Padres-centric “freezing cold takes” style account.

[Zad Fnark]

Ugh... Lyle's imploding in the 2nd.

[Eye Black]

Most teams are more than 1/3 of the way through the season now and 12 teams are within 2 games of .500 (or at .500). Every playoff team currently would have a .500 or better record. The expanded playoffs are certainly going to make for a wild finish where several teams are within reach of a playoff spot heading into the final week. Can’t know for certain, but it appears like 31+ wins would likely be enough to secure a playoff spot.