2020 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

[Eye Black]

This thread has become a bit of tradition the past couple of years (2018 and 2019), and the Brewers have made the playoffs each year ([sarcasm]its worked![/sarcasm]) so here’s a 2020 version to discuss division and playoff races.

 

The Brewers are now a quarter of the way through their season (15 games) and this is what the NL standings as well as playoff field currently look like:

 

 

 

 

Reminder, the projected playoff odds are updated daily here: FanGraphs playoff odds

[DuWayne Steurer]

I absolutely love that Baltimore Detroit and Miami currently in the playoff field.

[pacopete4]

This probably won’t change at all over the next 40-45 games. Lock it in. We are the 8th seed.

[Underachiever]

This probably won’t change at all over the next 40-45 games. Lock it in. We are the 8th seed.

Just bought Game 1 tickets from a guy on Addison this morning. Pumped!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Some teams will play 20 games by the time STL plays six. How do they plan on addressing that?

[PeaveyFury]

Honestly, I'd make it an unofficial 'punishment' by making them play like 14 double-headers and eliminating their off days.

[Jopal78]

Some teams will play 20 games by the time STL plays six. How do they plan on addressing that?

 

I suppose they could alter the rules again, and say the 8 teams with the most total wins from each league make the playoffs. But that would really penalize a team that played less than 60 games through no fault of their own.

 

I would bet, most likely St. Louis will be DQ'd from qualifying for the playoffs this year. It would suck for their fans, but its the only really equitable solution. It won't matter to the players, they get paid regardless. Likewise, the team gets the broadcast revenue regardless, and there are no fans, so no detriment on paid attendance.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

STL is only half the problem though, there are a bunch of teams short on games (us) because they couldn't play them.

[Jopal78]

For all the games that are not ultimately made up, they could make those all forfeits by the team who had the positive tests, but that would seem really punitive.

[PeaveyFury]

For all the games that are not ultimately made up, they could make those all forfeits by the team who had the positive tests, but that would seem really punitive.

 

Honestly, it's probably the simplest way, and a very possible action when they realize that these games are going to be very hard to make up.

 

The downside is mostly 'statistical' for the players, but that's probably of significantly less importance this year, obviously.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

They could DQ STL and extrapolate the other teams' W/Ls using their winning % for the season. I dunno, just thinking out loud...maybe that's pointless and would be the same as just taking winning %, though maybe it would make a difference if going by total wins and one team had more games with STL than another.

[owbc]

There’s no way St Louis will actually be able to win games after sitting this long, right? The best case scenario is that they come back and lose a bunch, then the DQ from the playoffs decision will be easy.

[brewerfan82]

I still don't understand why they can't play games using their "alternate" players. I understand missing a couple games due to the logistics of moving players around, etc., but missing like 2 weeks of games seems avoidable. Yeah they're going to have a pretty lousy team to field, but it's better than the mess this is turning into.

[FVBrewerFan]

An exception will be made. Cardinals are given a playoff birth as the #9 seed, they go on to win the WS.

[MrTPlush]

I still don't understand why they can't play games using their "alternate" players. I understand missing a couple games due to the logistics of moving players around, etc., but missing like 2 weeks of games seems avoidable. Yeah they're going to have a pretty lousy team to field, but it's better than the mess this is turning into.

 

Coaching staff would be the problem presumably. You’d have to have a whole coaching staff to go with the alts...that’s getting pretty messy in itself. Us having to play 37+ innings in three days is a joke though. Why do we get hosed and then some other team (say the Pirates) just simply has those postponed games canceled? The fact we were at the start of their little outbreak so early in the season is going to really screw us over.

[Oxy]

I still don't understand why they can't play games using their "alternate" players. I understand missing a couple games due to the logistics of moving players around, etc., but missing like 2 weeks of games seems avoidable. Yeah they're going to have a pretty lousy team to field, but it's better than the mess this is turning into.

 

Same thought here. It's not like AAA players are random scrubs off the street, they can still field a competitive team on a nightly basis. Probbly not for an entire YEAR, but filling in for a couple games here and there so that the league can play an even schedule makes more sense than cancelling or postponing indefinitely. Presumably there is a coaching staff at these alternate sites as well. it's baseball, they barely need coaches anyway.

[brewerfan82]

Don't they have a handful of coaches at the alternate training site also (Matt Erickson, etc.)? Seems like they could get by for a few days until individual coaches and players pass enough negative tests to start coming back into the mix. Instead they're basically waiting for the entire team to be 100% negative before returning and causing a whole slew of problems in the process. Like you mentioned, it seems really unfair that other teams are paying for the issues the Marlins and Cardinals have had.

[AKCheesehead]

In the spirit of be careful what you wish for, consider that forfeiting all those games would all but guarantee the crads the #1 draft pick.

[MrTPlush]

Don't they have a handful of coaches at the alternate training site also (Matt Erickson, etc.)? Seems like they could get by for a few days until individual coaches and players pass enough negative tests to start coming back into the mix. Instead they're basically waiting for the entire team to be 100% negative before returning and causing a whole slew of problems in the process. Like you mentioned, it seems really unfair that other teams are paying for the issues the Marlins and Cardinals have had.

 

Sure, but I think MLB is trying to protect the interest of the COVID team just as much as any other team. I don’t think having a AAA/AA roster play is anything they want...obviously with the way they have gone about it. Almost seems like teams lobbied for MLB to protect their seasons at all costs. I doubt they want those AAA/AA squads getting shelled all the time...doesn’t exactly excite people. Those alt squads are bad, really bad compared to an MLB team. The offense would be comical and the pitching depth would be bad.

[KeithStone53151]

This Brewers team just doesn't look like a playoff team. It's fine having one or two of the journeyman hole-plugger types on your roster, especially multi-position guys like holt or sogard. But having half your lineup decked out with these types is a recipe for failure. Guys like Sogard are a substantial part of the roster, whereas teams/pitchers spend more time game-planning to get him out than if he was coming off the bench of a stronger roster like he probably should be. I felt pretty good about this roster going into the season, but that also included Cain, a good Braun, a Hiura that once in a while could hit a belt high fastball, and 2018/2019 Yelich.

 

The Cubs are just not screwing around and it's so obvious. That team is the hungriest in the division and it's showing in the standings.

[PeaveyFury]

I do find it a little funny that for all of the comments about our off season vs. the Reds who spent a bajillion dollars, both teams are sitting here two games below .500. The Reds have been an expected contender for what, 3 years now? At some point, don't they actually have to have results that match the hype of their acquisitions?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I do find it a little funny that for all of the comments about our off season vs. the Reds who spent a bajillion dollars, both teams are sitting here two games below .500. The Reds have been an expected contender for what, 3 years now? At some point, don't they actually have to have results that match the hype of their acquisitions?

 

That was the point I continuously tried to make as baseball fans all over (including several here) sized up the Reds roster for their World Series rings. The Reds were a dumpster fire last year, and teams rarely go from that dysfunctional to World Series contention in a season. They may be going in the right direction, but I need to see more actual incremental improvement, rather than the "on paper" improvement they seem to be making.

[brewcrewdue80]

An exception will be made. Cardinals are given a playoff birth as the #9 seed, they go on to win the WS.

Ha meanwhile their total wins goes in to factor their draft position, receive a top 5 pick since its 20wins(guess)

 

I do have a solution and punishment for the covid teams forcing missed games.

A- the games are called a tie 1/2 w, 1/2 L. This way all teams achieve 60games.

 

B- teams that cause the postponed games, the players arent paid, and that team actually pays whatever the opponent's team players salaries would be for those games.

 

IE- Cards players woulda earned say 700k per game vs Brewers. They recieve nothing. Meanwhile the Brewers team woulda earned 500k per game that now doesnt come from Mark A's pocket but Cardinals are now responsible for paying.

 

See if players stay in their bubble now since 1 player affects the whole team.

[tmwiese55]

The Reds have not been an expected contender until this year, that's just flat out not true. And obviously it's tough to gauge/blame or make any comments on the results of this messed up weird year. Essentially if things don't click/work this year it's a free pass and can just say who knows what would've happened with a full year.

 

Brewers obviously not looking too good. Generally my attitude is they picked the right year to do it since its all messed up. But I still give a free pass, just like I would the reds. What they did was built depth, since can't afford high end players, and that depth isn't nearly as useful in the short season. Plus, how can you blame management for this causing Yeli to be awful for 2-3 weeks. It's all messed up for all teams. Short season can just be so fluky, hope you get lucky but then wash your hands and move onto next year. Cubs playing great though, congrats, your reward is a crapshoot playoff system.

[Eye Black]

Regarding the Reds, this is sort of their “go for it” year, and they appear likely to take a step back in talent unless they really spend again this coming winter. Bauer is a free agent and Castellanos is likely to opt out of his contract. Sonny Gray is under contract one more year. They are desperately in need of better bullpen arms, and part of me hopes they unload a portion of their farm system over the next 2.5 weeks in order to shore up their pen. I think the Reds are going to owe a lot of PTBNLs by the time this trade deadline has passed.