Current Roster Unfortunate For Short Season

[RobDeer 45]

Let me first say, I'm thankful to have Baseball back, and our record is secondary to being able to watch the Brewers. In a shortened season, it's a bummer to have so much turnover on the roster from last year. I find, it makes it harder to really get to know this new group of players. Harder to cheer them on. I also think this roster was really built to handle a long season, with all its flexibility. We would have gotten to know them and seen their strengths more (hopefully), learned to love the new guys. Now that we are in a sprint, instead of marathon, I feel we are going to be in a tough spot.

 

I'm not going to complain about it personally. I'm just looking forward watching them and hoping they can get a little winning streak going to build momentum.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Let me first say, I'm thankful to have Baseball back, and our record is secondary to being able to watch the Brewers. In a shortened season, it's a bummer to have so much turnover on the roster from last year. I find, it makes it harder to really get to know this new group of players. Harder to cheer them on. I also think this roster was really built to handle a long season, with all its flexibility. We would have gotten to know them and seen their strengths more (hopefully), learned to love the new guys. Now that we are in a sprint, instead of marathon, I feel we are going to be in a tough spot.

 

I'm not going to complain about it personally. I'm just looking forward watching them and hoping they can get a little winning streak going to build momentum.

 

Right! I think we'll see that with a guy like Brock Holt. He's the type that you love to have over a 162-game season because he's steady, gritty and can fill in anywhere. That isn't as much of a need, though, with a shortened season and expanded roster. I do still really like him, though, and feel he's a great fit for the roster and the way Counsell likes to manage. I'm hoping they decide to exercise his 2021 option.

[pacopete4]

Yeah, teams need time to gel. This group may or may not get to that point but I think they would’ve been fine under regular circumstances.

[owbc]

This format is definitely favoring pitchers and young guys, neither of which are the strengths of this team.

 

I'll be a little optimistic though. We haven't seen Urias yet. We have another option to try at 1B (Healy). And Narváez is a really good hitter, he will start contributing sooner rather than later.

[RobDeer 45]

Yelich being Yelich would be a big boost right now too, obviously. Yes I'm excited to see Urias and see what Garcia is made of. Hoping for some positive vibes and some wins to get a little momentum going.

[MrTPlush]

There is nothing unfortunate about putting together an offense loaded with journeyman scrubs. Obviously Cain leaving and Braun currently being out makes it a whole lot worse, but regardless it isn’t pretty. Sometimes you get what you paid/acquired for. It’s probably a good thing it is only 60 games from an offensive standpoint. These guys over 162 games? Yikes.

 

The pitchers being inexperienced it a little bit of an unfortunate disadvantage for the 60 game season though. Many of these guys could be really solid by year end if it was 162 games...unfortunately we won’t get that.

[Jopal78]

There is nothing unfortunate about putting together an offense loaded with journeyman scrubs. Obviously Cain leaving and Braun currently being out makes it a whole lot worse, but regardless it isn’t pretty. Sometimes you get what you paid/acquired for. It’s probably a good thing it is only 60 games from an offensive standpoint. These guys over 162 games? Yikes.

 

The pitchers being inexperienced it a little bit of an unfortunate disadvantage for the 60 game season though. Many of these guys could be really solid by year end if it was 162 games...unfortunately we won’t get that.

 

 

I wouldn't call them "journeyman scrubs". Smoak has been an all-star and over 11 years in the majors has averaged 25 homeruns and a .742 OPS, since missing all of 2016 with a knee injury Sogard has a .743 OPS. I kind of like Avisail Garcia, he's played in nearly 800 big league games and isn't 30 yet and is one of the few players producing. Gyorko was a better than average hitter for the Cardinals for years (20 HR/YR, 111 OPS+) but then was hurt and sucked in 2019. However, excluding Garcia, if these players didn't have warts (inconsistency, coming off injuries, age), they wouldn't have taken one year deals with club options from the Brewers in the first place.

 

The GM has made it clear he prefers players who have defensive versatility, almost all of his acquisitions are above average runners, and he puts together a collection of both right handed and left handed hitters. Regardless if they play 60 games or 162 games I don't think he is going to stray from acquiring the type of players he prefers. Sogard, Holt, Gyorko, Mathias, HP, Saladino, Brad Miller, and Nick Franklin, they're all basically the same player and Stearns has a couple of them on his roster every year.

[MrTPlush]

Smoak, Morrison, Holt, Sogard, and Gyorko are all journeyman...or about as close to the definition you can come to it. All are 30+ years old and lived off small contracts that are mostly one year deals. Just about all of them have a sub 100 OPS+ for their careers. Most of them we close or below that mark for 2019. I mean they aren’t total garbage, but that’s a lot of average at best players in a team.

 

Part of it is injuries, Cain dropping out, and Urias is still MIA (not that he would necessarily be good). Part of that is also guys just not hitting well who should be...like Narvaez and Holt. Both of those guys I would certainly expect to turn it around quite a bit and arguably are the most frustrating. Smoak/Gyorko/Sogard? Those guys could definitely just be terrible all year cause they really aren’t that good.

 

The bright side is almost every single offensive player is due for notable improvement minus Arcia/Gamel...so I feel pretty safe saying it can’t get any worse.

[umphrey]

I think across mlb a lot of the guys who signed 1 year deals will be back with the same team. There isn't enough change that will happen this year to change values and needs to get them to new teams.

[brewers888]

I don't care if the season is 60 games or 600 games long its not going to turn the likes of Smoak, Sogard, and Morrison into good hitters. Ownership obviously gave Stearns a mandate to lower payroll and in turn he went dumpster diving to fill out the roster. This wasn't a good offensive team last year and its significantly worse this season.

[sveumrules]

Right now team wRC+ ranges from 135 at the top to 54 at the bottom, the Brewers are 26th at 85.

 

In 2019, through around 60 games, team wRC+ ranged from 122 at the top to 73 on the bottom.

 

Even in a shortened season, there is still plenty of regression coming for most everybody.

 

Given the predictive power of an 8 game sample is next to zilch, I would wager our team wRC+ ends up closer to the 102 our non-pitchers posted in 2019 than the 85 it currently sits at. Yelich hitting like Yelich would definitely give it a nice nudge in the right direction.

[82brewcrew82]

Right now team wRC+ ranges from 135 at the top to 54 at the bottom, the Brewers are 26th at 85.

 

In 2019, through around 60 games, team wRC+ ranged from 122 at the top to 73 on the bottom.

 

Even in a shortened season, there is still plenty of regression coming for most everybody.

 

Given the predictive power of an 8 game sample is next to zilch, I would wager our team wRC+ ends up closer to the 102 our non-pitchers posted in 2019 than the 85 it currently sits at. Yelich hitting like Yelich would definitely give it a nice nudge in the right direction.

I'd be more inclined to buy this if it were a normal season. I probably wouldn't even be all that worried if these were the first eight games of 162. I tend to agree with some of the above posters in that this team just wasn't built to play a 60 game season. Now, no one saw all of this coming so it is excusable, just unfortunate.

[owbc]

I don't care if the season is 60 games or 600 games long its not going to turn the likes of Smoak, Sogard, and Morrison into good hitters. Ownership obviously gave Stearns a mandate to lower payroll and in turn he went dumpster diving to fill out the roster. This wasn't a good offensive team last year and its significantly worse this season.

 

Sogard has been pretty good so far, he's one of the only Brewers who is not painful to watch at the plate. LoMo is only on the team because of the expanded roster. Smoak is the only one that I would agree with, I would have rather kept Thames around.

[645]

Well be thankfull, Half the league makes the playoffs. That give them a shot atless.

 

I don't think it's that. It is a team built for the kind of stadium Miller Park is. Left handed power hitters because Miller Park gives them extra cheep Home Runs.

 

I think there early season Problems are more of an issue of get caught up in the middle of the Covid-19 Posponedments. Hard to get into a grove when you only play 6 days and then having to seat the next 4 days. I know they are playing it safe but it can't be easy to have so many unscheduled off days.

[Eye Black]

[sarcasm]Well maybe it’s the perfect roster for this situation because the Brewers are currently in position for the #13 overall draft pick while at the same time the #6 seed in the NL playoff picture by virtue of being in 2nd place in the NL Central.[/sarcasm]

[MrTPlush]

I don't care if the season is 60 games or 600 games long its not going to turn the likes of Smoak, Sogard, and Morrison into good hitters. Ownership obviously gave Stearns a mandate to lower payroll and in turn he went dumpster diving to fill out the roster. This wasn't a good offensive team last year and its significantly worse this season.

 

Sogard has been pretty good so far, he's one of the only Brewers who is not painful to watch at the plate. LoMo is only on the team because of the expanded roster. Smoak is the only one that I would agree with, I would have rather kept Thames around.

 

Pretty good? I mean he has taken a bunch of walks, but outside of that he has been pretty bad (as shown by his barely .700 OPS). His entire career he has never taken that many walks so that’s likely a fluke and he isn’t actually Barry Bonds when it comes to drawing walks.

 

Compared to the rest of the Brewers he is an All Star level player...compared to the rest of baseball? Barely competent.

[PeaveyFury]

Compared to the rest of the Brewers he is an All Star level player...compared to the rest of baseball? Barely competent.

 

I think this is unnecessarily dismissive of his .400 OBP, which would be good on any team in baseball.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't care if the season is 60 games or 600 games long its not going to turn the likes of Smoak, Sogard, and Morrison into good hitters. Ownership obviously gave Stearns a mandate to lower payroll and in turn he went dumpster diving to fill out the roster. This wasn't a good offensive team last year and its significantly worse this season.

 

Sogard has been pretty good so far, he's one of the only Brewers who is not painful to watch at the plate. LoMo is only on the team because of the expanded roster. Smoak is the only one that I would agree with, I would have rather kept Thames around.

 

Pretty good? I mean he has taken a bunch of walks, but outside of that he has been pretty bad (as shown by his barely .700 OPS). His entire career he has never taken that many walks so that’s likely a fluke and he isn’t actually Barry Bonds when it comes to drawing walks.

 

Compared to the rest of the Brewers he is an All Star level player...compared to the rest of baseball? Barely competent.

 

So the walk rate is a fluke, but the low OPS isn't? He put up an .810 OPS last year, and a .770 in 2017 (albeit he was bad 2018). Isn't it possible, if not probable, that evens out as well?

[Underachiever]

I am not a guy who spends much time looking at UZR, and other advanced metrics, but Garcia in Center, Mathias in left is not confidence-inspiring defense. What I have seen is that Garcia is below average in center, and, while fast for a big guy, is not speedy. Mathias running down that ball in left last night had me holding my breath, and he is new to the outfield. I'm concerned with how slow the team looks. Gyorko, Smoak, Sogard are not quick, and if that is your infield with Hiura, you will see an awful lot of infield hits like the Sox have had. Are Morrison, Holt, Healy the answers?

 

My biggest hope is that I was as dismayed with the UW Basketball team in December. They were not fun to watch, and were shooting like the Brewers are hitting. The Badgers came around, hope the same thing happens with the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I am not a guy who spends much time looking at UZR, and other advanced metrics, but Garcia in Center, Mathias in left is not confidence-inspiring defense. What I have seen is that Garcia is below average in center, and, while fast for a big guy, is not speedy. Mathias running down that ball in left last night had me holding my breath, and he is new to the outfield. I'm concerned with how slow the team looks. Gyorko, Smoak, Sogard are not quick, and if that is your infield with Hiura, you will see an awful lot of infield hits like the Sox have had. Are Morrison, Holt, Healy the answers?

 

My biggest hope is that I was as dismayed with the UW Basketball team in December. They were not fun to watch, and were shooting like the Brewers are hitting. The Badgers came around, hope the same thing happens with the Brewers.

 

It's a good thing that they have another guy who has proven to be a pretty good LF

 

Moving Garcia to CF instead of just putting Gamel there is a curious move on the surface. I'm sure they have a reason for doing it, though. I would imagine we'll eventually see Keon Broxton a lot in CF. Broxton is going to struggle offensively, but his defense is top-notch.

[Jopal78]

The Brewers have scored 31 runs in 9 games for a 3.4 average. By comparison the '19 Detroit Tigers scored the fewest runs in the major leagues 582, which averages out to 3.59.

 

The Brewers have way more talent offensively than the 2019 Tigers. Even without Cain and their collection of veterans on short term deals, they still can run out a lineup daily packed with above average MLB hitters. They just need to take an opposing pitcher apart one of these days and the bats will get going.

[sveumrules]

Neither has much experience out there, but coming into the season Avisail had more career innings (301) in CF than Gamel (181).

 

Of course there is more to playing OF than pure speed, but Statcast also has Avisail (28.8 ft/sec) faster than Ben (28.2 ft/sec).

 

Obviously Win Probability Added has next to zero predictive value, but Sogard so far is tops among all our batters at +0.40 & while he's probably not going to keep walking 20% of the time, his BB rate from 2017-19 was 27% above league average (with a K rate 35% below league average), so he should continue to turn in quality plate appearances as long as the season lasts.

[timpep]

So the walk rate is a fluke, but the low OPS isn't? He put up an .810 OPS last year, and a .770 in 2017 (albeit he was bad 2018). Isn't it possible, if not probable, that evens out as well?

 

I think it's much more likely Sogard ends the year closer to his career ops than his career year ops.

[owbc]

This team is lacking in OBP guys so Sogard is quite valuable for that reason. I don't care if he only draws walks and hits singles if he can keep his OBP above .350.

[Underachiever]

Neither has much experience out there, but coming into the season Avisail had more career innings (301) in CF than Gamel (181).

 

Of course there is more to playing OF than pure speed, but Statcast also has Avisail (28.8 ft/sec) faster than Ben (28.2 ft/sec).

 

Obviously Win Probability Added has next to zero predictive value, but Sogard so far is tops among all our batters at +0.40 & while he's probably not going to keep walking 20% of the time, his BB rate from 2017-19 was 27% above league average (with a K rate 35% below league average), so he should continue to turn in quality plate appearances as long as the season lasts.

You can bury me with stats, I know that, but for the speed, Garcia was -1 in outs above average as a center fielder. So while his speed is better than Gamel, it's not great. Never suggested that Gamel was a better option, just that Garcia wasn't a great one.