Compare 2005 Brewers to PECOTA projections

[1992casey]

At reillymcshane's request and for everyone's benefit, here's a review of this season's Brewer PECOTA projections:

 

PITCHERS

 

Pitcher / ERA

 

Mike Adams / 4.11

Jeff Bennett / 4.82

José Capellan / 4.76

Chris Capuano / 4.37

Marcos Carvajal / 4.59

Doug Davis / 4.35

Jorge De La Rosa / 4.89

Dana Eveland / 4.43

Rick Helling / 5.32

Ben Hendrickson / 4.47

Jeff Housman / 5.24

Brooks Kieschnick / 4.66

Justin Lehr / 4.21

Wes Obermueller / 5.21

Manny Parra / 4.78

Luis Peña / 4.88

Tommy Phelps / 4.49

Victor Santos / 5.06

Dennis Sarfate / 5.78

Ben Sheets / 3.22

Matt Wise / 4.43

Glenn Woolard / 4.91

 

HITTERS

 

Player / BA / OBP / SLG / OPS

 

Pat Borders / .240 / .270 / .370 / .640

Russ Branyan / .252 / .361 / .502 / .863

Brady Clark / .256 / .331 / .366 / .697

Callix Crabbe / .233 / .301 / .323 / .624

Nelson Cruz / .252 / .306 / .441 / .747

Enrique Cruz / .221 / .281 / .337 / .618

Matt Erickson / .258 / .343 / .359 / .702

Prince Fielder / .268 / .357 / .470 / .827

Tony Gwynn Jr. / .226 / .291 / .296 / .587

Bill Hall / .251 / .301 / .389 / .690

J.J. Hardy / .268 / .328 / .437 / .765

Corey Hart / .260 / .318 / .435 / .753

Wes Helms / .256 / .322 / .422 / .744

Geoff Jenkins / .267 / .341 / .480 / .821

Mark Johnson .234 .333 .353 / .686

Brooks Kieschnick / .238 / .310 / .415 / .725

David Krynzel / .244 / .316 / .367 / .683

Carlos Lee / .287 / .356 / .499 / .855

Chris Magruder / .258 / .325 / .417 / .742

Damian Miller / .244 / .320 / .386 / .706

Chad Moeller / .243 / .311 / .381 / .692

Brad Nelson / .242 / .303 / .413 / .716

Lyle Overbay / .269 / .356 / .442 / .798

Lou Palmisano / .243 / .317 / .370 / .687

Junior Spivey / .264 / .343 / .432 / .775

Rickie Weeks / .256 / .356 / .409 / .765

[reillymcshane]

Thanks, Casey.

[reillymcshane]

Weeks, Lee, Overbay and Branyon were quite accurate.

 

Jenks, Miller and Hardy were okay.

 

Hall and Clark were quite off.

 

Helms, Magurder, Moeller were all over the place. The fewer at bats probably make them harder to peg correctly.

 

I think the nailing of Overbay's performance was the one that is most impressive. Weeks was pretty good too.

 

Hall I could see getting wrong - he'd never really done well, even in the minors (high desert excluded), so it would be difficult to predict he'd do so well.

 

All in all, they didn't overestimate a players performance - going on the conservative side for the most part.

[reillymcshane]

I found the ZIPS projections for hitters. Interesting to compare:

 

Damien Miller - 35 .249/.321/.387/.706

Chad Moeller ? 30 .236/.303/.355/.658

 

INFIELDERS

Russell Branyan - 29 .251/.342/.494/.836

Bill Hall - 25 .251/.296/.367/.663

J.J. Hardy ? 22 .252/.347/.397/.743

Wes Helms - 28 .262/.333/.417/.750

Lyle Overbay ? 28 .299/.379/.465/.844

Junior Spivey ? 30 .272/.359/.433/.792

Jeff Cirillo- 35 .231/.294/.302/.596

 

OUTFIELDERS

Brady Clark ? 31 .271/.359/.389/.748

Geoff Jenkins ? 30 .273/.341/.484/.825

Carlos Lee ? 28 .290/.355/.487/.842

Chris Magruder ?27 .255/.313/.383/.696

[endaround]

The really weird thing about Lee is that while his OPS has been projected fairly correctly his components are way off. He's reaching base at amuch lower rate but hitting for more power.

[JoeHova]

Interesting stuff. What's really interesting is how close the PECOTAs for Prince, Hart, and N. Cruz match up with their MLEs. The PECOTAs undershot them all, but still, they were pretty close.