2020-08-03: White Sox (Rodón) at Brewers (Anderson) [Brewers lose, 6-4 -- Home Opener]

[Eye Black]

.242 RISP (8 for 33) for the season. Not great but not awful.

 

That's actually really good considering how bad their overall team batting average is.

Coming into tonight the overall team batting average was .198 for the season. Team OPS was at .642 which was 26th in baseball (yes, small sample size).

[pacopete4]

Logan Morrison might be my least favorite new Brewer.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not quite ready for the Morrison experiment to be over, but he's making it easier to go that direction every time he grounds out weakly to 2nd,

[BigDaddy1974]

I know it’s early but this team just is missing something. Is it realistic to think the Brewers can compete with the likes of Smoak, Morrison, Healy, Sogard, Holt, Gyrko etc. making up a large portion of their daily lineup? It sure seems they are missing Moose, Grandal, heck even Thames is missed in my opinion.

[sveumrules]

Coming into the season the only positions that projected below replacement offensively were 3B & SS.

 

Losing Cain & Braun & Urias not playing yet have created more holes.

 

It's not like today's lineup was the plan all along or something.

[Eye Black]

Frustrating game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know it’s early but this team just is missing something. Is it realistic to think the Brewers can compete with the likes of Smoak, Morrison, Healy, Sogard, Holt, Gyrko etc. making up a large portion of their daily lineup? It sure seems they are missing Moose, Grandal, heck even Thames is missed in my opinion.

 

Those guys would look a lot better if Yelich and Hiura were hitting. The quality you are getting with the likes of Smoak, Sogard, Holt and Narvaez is not substantially less than you got with Moose, Grandal and Thames.

[BigDaddy1974]

I see your point but I don’t think the cavalry is coming to save the day anytime soon. Braun is hurt which had to be expected, Cain opts out, somewhat of a surprise. I hope they give Urias a chance here soon. I think his talent will help. Maybe things will turn around soon. Need Yelich to hit like Yelich more than ever with this team’s makeup. Just doesn’t seem like they have the juice that they have had and I know it’s early. Just an observation.

[Eye Black]

Coming into the season the only positions that projected below replacement offensively were 3B & SS.

 

Losing Cain & Braun & Urias not playing yet have created more holes.

 

It's not like today's lineup was the plan all along or something.

Even when Cain and Braun were in the mix you had Sogard, Smoak, Morrison, and Gyorko all hitting in the top 5 in the lineup (granted not all at the same time). I definitely understand what they were trying to do with average-ish players platooning, and the depth of those pieces projected to be fine over a full season marathon. Still, I have a hard time arguing that in a sprint this is the type of lineup that’s going to impress anyone over a short season or playoff format.

[BigDaddy1974]

Well said.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers have 28 runs in 7 games (4 runs/game) and that’s with Yelich basically doing nothing. They’ve been shut out once and scoring 1-run in another game (27 runs in 5 games or 5.4 runs/gm). Very small sample size with all of this stuff.

[owbc]

Morale is clearly very low in the clubhouse. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers have 28 runs in 7 games (4 runs/game) and that’s with Yelich basically doing nothing. They’ve been shut out once and scoring 1-run in another game (27 runs in 5 games or 5.4 runs/gm). Very small sample size with all of this stuff.

 

Yeah, this whole season (if we even make it to the end) is like one big small sample theatre. Normally around 60 games or so is when a lot of stuff is just starting to stabilize a little bit. Now Ben Gamel's our best hitter because of 20 plate appearances.

 

Crazy stuff is already happening. Tyler Alexander has a long, established history of not really striking guys out. Yet, the other day, with no new pitch or no extra 5 MPH on his fastball, he struck out nine guys in a row...https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anyone-can-strike-out-nine-batters-in-a-row/

 

Over 162 games a lot evens out, but plenty of weird baseball stuff still happens. Given the hopeful length of this season, it's going to be magnitudes weirder.

 

In 2019, Eric Sogard had a 54 game stretch where he hit 310/378/512.

In 2019, Justin Smoak had a 54 game stretch where he hit 242/385/473.

In 2018, Jedd Gyorko had a 55 game stretch where he hit 310/415/494.

In 2018, Brock Holt had a 48 game stretch where he hit 320/385/433.

In 2017, Logan Morrison had a 55 game stretch where hit 269/391/591.

In 2017, Ryon Healy had a 53 game stretch where he hit 299/326/578.

 

Given all the uncertainty around an already shortened season, the only thing I really care about is that everyone stays healthy. If we get to be a couple weeks from the end of the season & MLB is still actually going maybe I'll let myself start to get invested emotionally in the season's potential outcome.

[BruisedCrew]

I know it’s early but this team just is missing something. Is it realistic to think the Brewers can compete with the likes of Smoak, Morrison, Healy, Sogard, Holt, Gyrko etc. making up a large portion of their daily lineup? It sure seems they are missing Moose, Grandal, heck even Thames is missed in my opinion.

 

Those guys would look a lot better if Yelich and Hiura were hitting. The quality you are getting with the likes of Smoak, Sogard, Holt and Narvaez is not substantially less than you got with Moose, Grandal and Thames.

 

I would bet the ranch that a platoon of Sogard and Gyorko and Holt won’t produce anything close to what Moustakas did last year. Last season’s production at 3B was dragged down by Shaw, and Moustakas’ contributions were spread between 2B and 3B.

 

I don’t see Smoak matching Thames or Navarez matching Grandal either.

 

The Brewers had basically a league average offense last season and this year’s figured to be significantly below average, even if Yelich produced at something close to expectations. As he hits like a poor hitting pitcher it’s a really bad offense.

[Zad Fnark]

Not playing for 5 days probably didn't help.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know it’s early but this team just is missing something. Is it realistic to think the Brewers can compete with the likes of Smoak, Morrison, Healy, Sogard, Holt, Gyrko etc. making up a large portion of their daily lineup? It sure seems they are missing Moose, Grandal, heck even Thames is missed in my opinion.

 

Those guys would look a lot better if Yelich and Hiura were hitting. The quality you are getting with the likes of Smoak, Sogard, Holt and Narvaez is not substantially less than you got with Moose, Grandal and Thames.

 

I would bet the ranch that a platoon of Sogard and Gyorko and Holt won’t produce anything close to what Moustakas did last year. Last season’s production at 3B was dragged down by Shaw, and Moustakas’ contributions were spread between 2B and 3B.

 

I don’t see Smoak matching Thames or Navarez matching Grandal either.

 

The Brewers had basically a league average offense last season and this year’s figured to be significantly below average, even if Yelich produced at something close to expectations. As he hits like a poor hitting pitcher it’s a really bad offense.

 

I liked Moose as well, but his impact really seems to be a bit overinflated among this fanbase. Still, I will give you that the Sogard/Gyorko/Holt platoon is not as good as Moose. But when you compare apples to apples, you have to combine Moose/Shaw, then it gets a lot closer. Shaw was that terrible last year.

 

Thames and Smoak have basically been the same player throughout their careers. Thames is another guy who is probably a little overinflated because he had several "hero ball" moments, but the fact is that he was simply an average 1B.

 

Narvaez may be a step down from Grandal, but judging by the numbers he's put up the last few seasons, that step should not be significant. We haven't necessarily seen it yet, but the guy is a good player.

 

What the Brewers did this offseason is go out and acquire players who they felt would be able to combine to provide similar production to what they gave up, at a much cheaper price point, likely because they knew that they'd be working on the Yelich extension. It isn't like the 2019 offense was some kind of juggernaut. They had stretches where they looked terrible.

[BruisedCrew]

Right, last year’s Brewers offense was not a juggernaut. This year’s Brewers offense figures to be significantly worse than 2019.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Right, last year’s Brewers offense was not a juggernaut. This year’s Brewers offense figures to be significantly worse than 2019.

 

Where do you get "figures" from? Your eye test? The fact that you don't like who they signed?

 

So far it's been roughly the same as it was last year ... inconsistent. And that is with the team's two best hitters – Yelich and Hiura – hitting like pitchers.

[BruisedCrew]

Right, last year’s Brewers offense was not a juggernaut. This year’s Brewers offense figures to be significantly worse than 2019.

 

Where do you get "figures" from? Your eye test? The fact that you don't like who they signed?

 

So far it's been roughly the same as it was last year ... inconsistent. And that is with the team's two best hitters – Yelich and Hiura – hitting like pitchers.

 

I thought this before play was stopped. Sure, it’s an opinion, but it’s based on an impression that the roster was going to have too many veteran utility/platoon players and not enough high quality everyday players.

 

I thought last year’s offense produced below expectations and potential because of the dreadful performances from Shaw and Aguilar and a down season from Cain. IMHO this year’s team has lower potential and, unless Yelich and Hiura can repeat what they did last year (which will be tougher with fewer threats around them) or several players have career years, this offense will be below league average, and possibly much worse. The guys hitting in the 1, 4, and 5 spots would not be starting, much less hitting in prime positions, for strong contenders.

[sveumrules]

Brewers C 2019: 118 wRC+

Narvaez 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+

Pina 2020 ZIPS: 78 OPS+

 

Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+

Smoak 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+

 

Brewers 2B 2019: 124 wRC+

Keston 2020 ZIPS: 115 OPS+

 

Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+

Urias 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+

Arcia 2020 ZIPS: 75 OPS+

 

Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+

Gyorko 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+

Holt 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+

Sogard 2020 ZIPS: 85 OPS+

 

Brewers LF 2019: 125 wRC+

Avisail 2020 ZIPS: 107 OPS+

Braun 2020 ZIPS: 107 OPS+

 

Brewers CF 2019: 80 wRC+

Cain 2020 ZIPS: 92 OPS+

 

Brewers RF 2019: 151 wRC+

Yelich 2020 ZIPS: 149 OPS+

 

By the projections C, 2B & LF are slightly worse. 1B & Yelich are essentially a push. 3B, SS & CF are improvements.

 

Over 162 games, the 2020 offense projected about the same as in 2019. Over less than 60 games there is so much noise in the sample that anything can really happen. Drawing conclusions after 7 games will probably prove to be premature, though I'd imagine our team wRC+ if we play 50ish games will end up closer to the 102 it was last year than the 84 it is so far this year.

[BruisedCrew]

Brewers C 2019: 118 wRC+

Narvaez 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+

Pina 2020 ZIPS: 78 OPS+

 

Brewers 1B 2019: 107 wRC+

Smoak 2020 ZIPS: 106 OPS+

 

Brewers 2B 2019: 124 wRC+

Keston 2020 ZIPS: 115 OPS+

 

Brewers SS 2019: 56 wRC+

Urias 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+

Arcia 2020 ZIPS: 75 OPS+

 

Brewers 3B 2019: 73 wRC+

Gyorko 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+

Holt 2020 ZIPS: 95 OPS+

Sogard 2020 ZIPS: 85 OPS+

 

Brewers LF 2019: 125 wRC+

Avisail 2020 ZIPS: 107 OPS+

Braun 2020 ZIPS: 107 OPS+

 

Brewers CF 2019: 80 wRC+

Cain 2020 ZIPS: 92 OPS+

 

Brewers RF 2019: 151 wRC+

Yelich 2020 ZIPS: 149 OPS+

 

By the projections C, 2B & LF are slightly worse. 1B & Yelich are essentially a push. 3B, SS & CF are improvements.

 

Over 162 games, the 2020 offense projected about the same as in 2019. Over less than 60 games there is so much noise in the sample that anything can really happen. Drawing conclusions after 7 games will probably prove to be premature, though I'd imagine our team wRC+ if we play 50ish games will end up closer to the 102 it was last year than the 84 it is so far this year.

 

Let me put it this way.

 

I am not drawing conclusions based on 7 days. I am saying now what I would have said in March.

 

Without referring to all kinds of advanced statistics and projections, my expectation was and is that the Brewers will finish lower in the league in the category of runs per game than they did last season if the “season” goes the full 60 games. It seems inevitable that their HR/G ratio will go down and I don’t think they have the kind of offensive players who can make up those runs in other ways. Maybe it’s a situation of the whole being less than the sum of the parts.

 

I guess time will tell if my expectation is too low.